Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States.

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%-consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

Integrating economic costs into the analysis of flexible conservation management strategies.

Flexible conservation management, where measures (e.g., mowing of meadows, removing invasive species) are selected in each decision period depending on the current state of the ecological system, is generally perceived as superior to fixed management, where the same measure is applied in each decision period independent of the current state of the system. In past comparisons of fixed and flexible conservation strategies the additional costs that arise only in flexible strategies have usually been ignored. In this paper, we present a framework to integrate costs of flexible management into the evaluation of flexible conservation strategies. Using the example of an endangered butterfly species we demonstrate that the costs of flexible management may reverse the rank order of flexible and fixed conservation strategies, such that fixed strategies may lead to better ecological results than flexible ones for the same financial budget.

A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species.

Although the aim of conservation planning is the persistence of biodiversity, current methods trade-off ecological realism at a species level in favour of including multiple species and landscape features. For conservation planning to be relevant, the impact of landscape configuration on population processes and the viability of species needs to be considered. We present a novel method for selecting reserve systems that maximize persistence across multiple species, subject to a conservation budget. We use a spatially explicit metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk, a function of the ecology of the species and the amount, quality and configuration of habitat. We compare our new method with more traditional, area-based reserve selection methods, using a ten-species case study, and find that the expected loss of species is reduced 20-fold. Unlike previous methods, we avoid designating arbitrary weightings between reserve size and configuration; rather, our method is based on population processes and is grounded in ecological theory.