Jerks are Useful: Extracting pulse rate from wrist-placed accelerometry jerk during sleep in children.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Evaluate wrist-placed accelerometry predicted heartrate compared to electrocardiogram (ECG) heartrate in children during sleep. METHODS: Children (n=82, 61% male, 43.9% Black) wore a wrist-placed Apple Watch Series 7 (AWS7) and ActiGraph GT9X during a polysomnogram. 3-Axis accelerometry data was extracted from AWS7 and the GT9X. Accelerometry heartrate estimates were derived from jerk (the rate of acceleration change), computed using the peak magnitude frequency in short time Fourier Transforms of Hilbert transformed jerk computed from acceleration magnitude. Heartrates from ECG traces were estimated from R-R intervals using R-pulse detection. Lin's Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) assessed agreement with ECG estimated heartrate. Secondary analyses explored agreement by polysomnography sleep stage and a signal quality metric. RESULTS: The developed scripts are available on Github. For the GT9X, CCC was poor at -0.11 and MAE and MAPE were high at 16.8 (SD=14.2) beats/minute and 20.4% (SD=18.5%). For AWS7, CCC was moderate at 0.61 while MAE and MAPE were lower at 6.4 (SD=9.9) beats/minute and 7.3% (SD=10.3%). Accelerometry estimated heartrate for AWS7 was more closely related to ECG heartrate during N2, N3 and REM sleep than lights on, wake, and N1 and when signal quality was high. These patterns were not evident for the GT9X. CONCLUSIONS: Raw accelerometry data extracted from AWS7, but not the GT9X, can be used to estimate heartrate in children while they sleep. Future work is needed to explore the sources (i.e., hardware, software, etc.) of the GT9X's poor performance.

Comparison of raw accelerometry data from ActiGraph, Apple Watch, Garmin, and Fitbit using a mechanical shaker table.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the raw accelerometry output from research-grade and consumer wearable devices compared to accelerations produced by a mechanical shaker table. Raw accelerometry data from a total of 40 devices (i.e., n = 10 ActiGraph wGT3X-BT, n = 10 Apple Watch Series 7, n = 10 Garmin Vivoactive 4S, and n = 10 Fitbit Sense) were compared to reference accelerations produced by an orbital shaker table at speeds ranging from 0.6 Hz (4.4 milligravity-mg) to 3.2 Hz (124.7mg). Two-way random effects absolute intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) tested inter-device reliability. Pearson product moment, Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), absolute error, mean bias, and equivalence testing were calculated to assess the validity between the raw estimates from the devices and the reference metric. Estimates from Apple, ActiGraph, Garmin, and Fitbit were reliable, with ICCs = 0.99, 0.97, 0.88, and 0.88, respectively. Estimates from ActiGraph, Apple, and Fitbit devices exhibited excellent concordance with the reference CCCs = 0.88, 0.83, and 0.85, respectively, while estimates from Garmin exhibited moderate concordance CCC = 0.59 based on the mean aggregation method. ActiGraph, Apple, and Fitbit produced similar absolute errors = 16.9mg, 21.6mg, and 22.0mg, respectively, while Garmin produced higher absolute error = 32.5mg compared to the reference. ActiGraph produced the lowest mean bias 0.0mg (95%CI = -40.0, 41.0). Equivalence testing revealed raw accelerometry data from all devices were not statistically significantly within the equivalence bounds of the shaker speed. Findings from this study provide evidence that raw accelerometry data from Apple, Garmin, and Fitbit devices can be used to reliably estimate movement; however, no estimates were statistically significantly equivalent to the reference. Future studies could explore device-agnostic and harmonization methods for estimating physical activity using the raw accelerometry signals from the consumer wearables studied herein.

Understanding Accelerated Summer Body Mass Index Gain by Tracking Changes in Children's Height, Weight, and Body Mass Index Throughout the Year.

Background: Drivers of summer body mass index (BMI) gain in children remain unclear. The Circadian and Circannual Rhythm Model (CCRM) posits summer BMI gain is biologically driven, while the Structured Days Hypothesis (SDH) proposes it is driven by reduced structure. Objectives: Identify the mechanisms driving children's seasonal BMI gain through the CCRM and SDH. Methods: Children's (N = 147, mean age = 8.2 years) height and weight were measured monthly during the school year, and once in summer (July-August). BMI z-score (zBMI) was calculated using CDC growth charts. Behaviors were measured once per season. Mixed methods regression estimated monthly percent change in children's height (%HΔ), weight (%WΔ), and monthly zBMI for school year vs. summer vacation, seasonally, and during school months with no breaks vs. school months with a break ≥1 week. Results: School year vs. summer vacation analyses showed accelerations in children's %WΔ (Δ = 0.9, Standard Error (SE) = 0.1 vs. Δ = 1.4, SE = 0.1) and zBMI (Δ = -0.01, SE = 0.01 vs. Δ = 0.04, SE = 0.3) during summer vacation, but %HΔ remained relatively constant during summer vacation compared with school (Δ = 0.3, SE = 0.0 vs. Δ = 0.4, SE = 0.1). Seasonal analyses showed summer had the greatest %WΔ (Δ = 1.8, SE = 0.4) and zBMI change (Δ = 0.05, SE = 0.03) while %HΔ was relatively constant across seasons. Compared with school months without a break, months with a break showed higher %WΔ (Δ = 0.7, SE = 0.1 vs. Δ = 1.6, SE = 0.2) and zBMI change (Δ = -0.03, SE = 0.01 vs. Δ = 0.04, SE = 0.01), but %HΔ was constant (Δ = 0.4, SE = 0.0 vs. Δ = 0.3, SE = 0.1). Fluctuations in sleep timing and screen time may explain these changes. Conclusions: Evidence for both the CCRM and SDH was identified but the SDH may more fully explain BMI gain. Interventions targeting consistent sleep and reduced screen time during breaks from school may be warranted no matter the season.

Seasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene.

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multimillennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate1. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyse a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid-Holocene, reached a peak 4,100 years ago and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration2,3. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, probably owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m and probably less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica4-7.

Estimating Physical Activity and Sleep using the Combination of Movement and Heart Rate: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to quantify the difference in physical activity and sleep estimates assessed via 1) movement, 2) heart rate (HR), or 3) the combination of movement and HR (MOVE+HR) compared to criterion indicators of the outcomes. Searches in four electronic databases were executed September 21-24 of 2021. Weighted mean was calculated from standardized group-level estimates of mean percent error (MPE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of the proxy signal compared to the criterion measurement method for physical activity, HR, or sleep. Standardized mean difference (SMD) effect sizes between the proxy and criterion estimates were calculated for each study across all outcomes, and meta-regression analyses were conducted. Two-One-Sided-Tests method were conducted to metaanalytically evaluate the equivalence of the proxy and criterion. Thirty-nine studies (physical activity k = 29 and sleep k = 10) were identified for data extraction. Sample size weighted means for MPE were -38.0%, 7.8%, -1.4%, and -0.6% for physical activity movement only, HR only, MOVE+HR, and sleep MOVE+HR, respectively. Sample size weighted means for MAPE were 41.4%, 32.6%, 13.3%, and 10.8% for physical activity movement only, HR only, MOVE+HR, and sleep MOVE+HR, respectively. Few estimates were statistically equivalent at a SMD of 0.8. Estimates of physical activity from MOVE+HR were not statistically significantly different from estimates based on movement or HR only. For sleep, included studies based their estimates solely on the combination of MOVE+HR, so it was impossible to determine if the combination produced significantly different estimates than either method alone.

Homelessness in early adulthood and biomedical risk factors by middle-age: the 1970 British Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Homelessness has been linked to premature mortality but the relationship with biomedical risk factors is uncertain. METHODS: We analysed data from 8581 participants in the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study. Homelessness and type of experience were self-reported at 30 years of age. Nine biomarkers outcomes were collected at 46 years of age: body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, total and high-density cholesterol, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin, C-reactive protein (CRP), insulin-like growth factor 1 and we computed the 10-year risk for coronary heart disease. RESULTS: By 30 years of age, 5.8% of participants had been homeless with sofa surfing the most common experience (4.3%). Homelessness was associated with socioeconomic disadvantage, mental health problems and substance use in early adulthood, but these differences were not expressed in biomarkers. After accounting for early adulthood characteristics, residing in a bed and breakfast was associated with a higher BMI (0.59, 95% CI 0.13 to 1.05) and CRP (0.16, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.29), squatting with a lower BMI (-1.69, 95% CI -3.08 to -0.21) and rough sleeping with a higher 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (0.03, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to homelessness in early adulthood was essentially unrelated to biomarkers in middle age. Inconsistent links were found for specific types of experience.

Preconception exposures and adverse pregnancy, birth and postpartum outcomes: Umbrella review of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Preconception exposures have been associated with adverse pregnancy, birth and postpartum outcomes. However, the reports, statements and guidelines of national and international health organisations vary in what they recommend individuals should monitor, avoid, reduce or practise in the preconception period. OBJECTIVES: To synthesise and evaluate the evidence across systematic reviews for associations between exposures before conception and adverse pregnancy, birth and postpartum outcomes. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, Epistemonikos (to May 2020) and reference lists of included reviews, without language or date restrictions. STUDY SELECTION, DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Systematic literature reviews of observational and/or interventional studies reporting associations between preconception exposures in women and/or men of reproductive age and pregnancy, birth or postpartum health outcomes were included. The methodological quality of reviews and the certainty of the evidence underlying each exposure-outcome association were assessed using AMSTAR 2 and the GRADE approach. RESULTS: We identified 53 eligible reviews reporting 205 unique exposure-outcome associations. Methodological quality was generally low with only two reviews rated as 'high' quality and two as 'moderate'. We found high-certainty, randomised trial evidence that maternal folate supplementation reduces the risk of neural tube defects and anomaly-related terminations. Moderate-certainty, observational evidence was found that maternal physical activity is associated with reduced risk of pre-eclampsia and gestational diabetes, and that paternal age of ≥40 years and maternal body mass index (BMI) and interpregnancy weight gain are associated with increased risk of various adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes. Low- and very low-certainty evidence was found for other associations. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians and policymakers can be confident that maternal folate supplementation should be encouraged during the preconception period. There is moderate certainty in the evidence base that maternal physical activity, BMI and interpregnancy weight gain and advanced paternal age are important preconception considerations. High-quality research is required to better understand other exposure-outcome associations.

A 120,000-year long climate record from a NW-Greenland deep ice core at ultra-high resolution.

We report high resolution measurements of the stable isotope ratios of ancient ice (δ18O, δD) from the North Greenland Eemian deep ice core (NEEM, 77.45° N, 51.06° E). The record covers the period 8-130 ky b2k (y before 2000) with a temporal resolution of ≈0.5 and 7 y at the top and the bottom of the core respectively and contains important climate events such as the 8.2 ky event, the last glacial termination and a series of glacial stadials and interstadials. At its bottom part the record contains ice from the Eemian interglacial. Isotope ratios are calibrated on the SMOW/SLAP scale and reported on the GICC05 (Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005) and AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012) time scales interpolated accordingly. We also provide estimates for measurement precision and accuracy for both δ18O and δD.

Detection of local mixing in time-series data using permutation entropy.

Mixing of neighboring data points in a sequence is a common, but understudied, effect in physical experiments. This can occur in the measurement apparatus (if material from multiple time points is pulled into a measurement chamber simultaneously, for instance) or the system itself, e.g., via diffusion of isotopes in an ice sheet. We propose a model-free technique to detect this kind of local mixing in time-series data using an information-theoretic technique called permutation entropy. By varying the temporal resolution of the calculation and analyzing the patterns in the results, we can determine whether the data are mixed locally, and on what scale. This can be used by practitioners to choose appropriate lower bounds on scales at which to measure or report data. After validating this technique on several synthetic examples, we demonstrate its effectiveness on data from a chemistry experiment, methane records from Mauna Loa, and an Antarctic ice core.

An information-theoretic approach to extracting climate signals from deep polar ice cores.

Paleoclimate records are rich sources of information about the past history of the Earth system. Information theory provides a new means for studying these records. We demonstrate that weighted permutation entropy of water-isotope data from the West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core reveals meaningful climate signals in this record. We find that this measure correlates with accumulation (meters of ice equivalent per year) and may record the influence of geothermal heating effects in the deepest parts of the core. Dansgaard-Oeschger and Antarctic Isotope Maxima events, however, do not appear to leave strong signatures in the information record, suggesting that these abrupt warming events may actually be predictable features of the climate's dynamics. While the potential power of information theory in paleoclimatology is significant, the associated methods require well-dated and high-resolution data. The WAIS Divide core is the first paleoclimate record that can support this kind of analysis. As more high-resolution records become available, information theory could become a powerful forensic tool in paleoclimate science.

Enhanced North American carbon uptake associated with El Niño.

Long-term atmospheric CO2 mole fraction and δ13CO2 observations over North America document persistent responses to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We estimate these responses corresponded to 0.61 (0.45 to 0.79) PgC year-1 more North American carbon uptake during El Niño than during La Niña between 2007 and 2015, partially offsetting increases of net tropical biosphere-to-atmosphere carbon flux around El Niño. Anomalies in derived North American net ecosystem exchange (NEE) display strong but opposite correlations with surface air temperature between seasons, while their correlation with water availability was more constant throughout the year, such that water availability is the dominant control on annual NEE variability over North America. These results suggest that increased water availability and favorable temperature conditions (warmer spring and cooler summer) caused enhanced carbon uptake over North America near and during El Niño.

Increased water-use efficiency and reduced CO2 uptake by plants during droughts at a continental-scale.

Severe droughts in the Northern Hemisphere cause widespread decline of agricultural yield, reduction of forest carbon uptake, and increased CO2 growth rates in the atmosphere. Plants respond to droughts by partially closing their stomata to limit their evaporative water loss, at the expense of carbon uptake by photosynthesis. This trade-off maximizes their water-use efficiency, as measured for many individual plants under laboratory conditions and field experiments. Here we analyze the 13C/12C stable isotope ratio in atmospheric CO2 (reported as δ13C) to provide new observational evidence of the impact of droughts on the water-use efficiency across areas of millions of km2 and spanning one decade of recent climate variability. We find strong and spatially coherent increases in water-use efficiency along with widespread reductions of net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere during severe droughts that affected Europe, Russia, and the United States in 2001-2011. The impact of those droughts on water-use efficiency and carbon uptake by vegetation is substantially larger than simulated by the land-surface schemes of six state-of-the-art climate models. This suggests that drought induced carbon-climate feedbacks may be too small in these models and improvements to their vegetation dynamics using stable isotope observations can help to improve their drought response.

Anomaly Detection in Paleoclimate Records Using Permutation Entropy.

Permutation entropy techniques can be useful for identifying anomalies in paleoclimate data records, including noise, outliers, and post-processing issues. We demonstrate this using weighted and unweighted permutation entropy with water-isotope records containing data from a deep polar ice core. In one region of these isotope records, our previous calculations (See Garland et al. 2018) revealed an abrupt change in the complexity of the traces: specifically, in the amount of new information that appeared at every time step. We conjectured that this effect was due to noise introduced by an older laboratory instrument. In this paper, we validate that conjecture by reanalyzing a section of the ice core using a more advanced version of the laboratory instrument. The anomalous noise levels are absent from the permutation entropy traces of the new data. In other sections of the core, we show that permutation entropy techniques can be used to identify anomalies in the data that are not associated with climatic or glaciological processes, but rather effects occurring during field work, laboratory analysis, or data post-processing. These examples make it clear that permutation entropy is a useful forensic tool for identifying sections of data that require targeted reanalysis-and can even be useful for guiding that analysis.

Enhanced methane emissions from tropical wetlands during the 2011 La Niña.

Year-to-year variations in the atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate show significant correlation with climatic drivers. The second half of 2010 and the first half of 2011 experienced the strongest La Niña since the early 1980s, when global surface networks started monitoring atmospheric CH4 mole fractions. We use these surface measurements, retrievals of column-averaged CH4 mole fractions from GOSAT, new wetland inundation estimates, and atmospheric δ13C-CH4 measurements to estimate the impact of this strong La Niña on the global atmospheric CH4 budget. By performing atmospheric inversions, we find evidence of an increase in tropical CH4 emissions of ∼6-9 TgCH4 yr-1 during this event. Stable isotope data suggest that biogenic sources are the cause of this emission increase. We find a simultaneous expansion of wetland area, driven by the excess precipitation over the Tropical continents during the La Niña. Two process-based wetland models predict increases in wetland area consistent with observationally-constrained values, but substantially smaller per-area CH4 emissions, highlighting the need for improvements in such models. Overall, tropical wetland emissions during the strong La Niña were at least by 5% larger than the long-term mean.

Role of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth.

The growth in global methane (CH4) concentration, which had been ongoing since the industrial revolution, stalled around the year 2000 before resuming globally in 2007. We evaluate the role of the hydroxyl radical (OH), the major CH4 sink, in the recent CH4 growth. We also examine the influence of systematic uncertainties in OH concentrations on CH4 emissions inferred from atmospheric observations. We use observations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), which is lost primarily through reaction with OH, to estimate OH levels as well as CH3CC3 emissions, which have uncertainty that previously limited the accuracy of OH estimates. We find a 64-70% probability that a decline in OH has contributed to the post-2007 methane rise. Our median solution suggests that CH4 emissions increased relatively steadily during the late 1990s and early 2000s, after which growth was more modest. This solution obviates the need for a sudden statistically significant change in total CH4 emissions around the year 2007 to explain the atmospheric observations and can explain some of the decline in the atmospheric 13CH4/12CH4 ratio and the recent growth in C2H6 Our approach indicates that significant OH-related uncertainties in the CH4 budget remain, and we find that it is not possible to implicate, with a high degree of confidence, rapid global CH4 emissions changes as the primary driver of recent trends when our inferred OH trends and these uncertainties are considered.

Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database.

Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

Surface-atmosphere decoupling limits accumulation at Summit, Greenland.

Despite rapid melting in the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant area (~40%) of the ice sheet rarely experiences surface melting. In these regions, the controls on annual accumulation are poorly constrained owing to surface conditions (for example, surface clouds, blowing snow, and surface inversions), which render moisture flux estimates from myriad approaches (that is, eddy covariance, remote sensing, and direct observations) highly uncertain. Accumulation is partially determined by the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure, which influences the maximum humidity of air parcels reaching the ice sheet interior. However, independent proxies for surface temperature and accumulation from ice cores show that the response of accumulation to temperature is variable and not generally consistent with a purely thermodynamic control. Using three years of stable water vapor isotope profiles from a high altitude site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we show that as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable, a decoupling between the ice sheet and atmosphere occurs. The limited interaction between the ice sheet surface and free tropospheric air reduces the capacity for surface condensation to achieve the rate set by the humidity of the air parcels reaching interior Greenland. The isolation of the surface also acts to recycle sublimated moisture by recondensing it onto fog particles, which returns the moisture back to the surface through gravitational settling. The observations highlight a unique mechanism by which ice sheet mass is conserved, which has implications for understanding both past and future changes in accumulation rate and the isotopic signal in ice cores from Greenland.

A 21st-century shift from fossil-fuel to biogenic methane emissions indicated by ¹³CH4.

Between 1999 and 2006, a plateau interrupted the otherwise continuous increase of atmospheric methane concentration [CH4] since preindustrial times. Causes could be sink variability or a temporary reduction in industrial or climate-sensitive sources. We reconstructed the global history of [CH4] and its stable carbon isotopes from ice cores, archived air, and a global network of monitoring stations. A box-model analysis suggests that diminishing thermogenic emissions, probably from the fossil-fuel industry, and/or variations in the hydroxyl CH4 sink caused the [CH4] plateau. Thermogenic emissions did not resume to cause the renewed [CH4] rise after 2006, which contradicts emission inventories. Post-2006 source increases are predominantly biogenic, outside the Arctic, and arguably more consistent with agriculture than wetlands. If so, mitigating CH4 emissions must be balanced with the need for food production.

Centennial-scale changes in the global carbon cycle during the last deglaciation.

Global climate and the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are correlated over recent glacial cycles. The combination of processes responsible for a rise in atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial termination (23,000 to 9,000 years ago), however, remains uncertain. Establishing the timing and rate of CO2 changes in the past provides critical insight into the mechanisms that influence the carbon cycle and helps put present and future anthropogenic emissions in context. Here we present CO2 and methane (CH4) records of the last deglaciation from a new high-accumulation West Antarctic ice core with unprecedented temporal resolution and precise chronology. We show that although low-frequency CO2 variations parallel changes in Antarctic temperature, abrupt CO2 changes occur that have a clear relationship with abrupt climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. A significant proportion of the direct radiative forcing associated with the rise in atmospheric CO2 occurred in three sudden steps, each of 10 to 15 parts per million. Every step took place in less than two centuries and was followed by no notable change in atmospheric CO2 for about 1,000 to 1,500 years. Slow, millennial-scale ventilation of Southern Ocean CO2-rich, deep-ocean water masses is thought to have been fundamental to the rise in atmospheric CO2 associated with the glacial termination, given the strong covariance of CO2 levels and Antarctic temperatures. Our data establish a contribution from an abrupt, centennial-scale mode of CO2 variability that is not directly related to Antarctic temperature. We suggest that processes operating on centennial timescales, probably involving the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, seem to be influencing global carbon-cycle dynamics and are at present not widely considered in Earth system models.