Prostate cancer: progression of prostate-specific antigen after external beam irradiation.

This paper is concerned with the development of a stochastic path of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level after radiation treatment for prostate cancer. PSA is a biomarker for prostate cancer, higher levels of which indicate the seriousness of the cancer progression. Following the deterministic modeling of the data by the previous authors, Cox et al., this paper is concerned with the theoretical knowledge that could be gained by the stochastic modeling in discrete form of the PSA path over time. The expected value of the PSA level is computed and compared with the deterministic model and it is found that they are the same for about the first year after radiation therapy. The American Society for Therapeutic Radiology has set a consensus panel definition of biochemical failure following radiation therapy: the rise in three consecutive levels of PSA is considered to be a failure of the radiation therapy. Knowledge of the path of PSA presented in this paper would be useful in the management of the radiation treatment and in particular assessing quantitatively any clinically based policy for defining recurrence after radiation therapy. Application of the model is illustrated by fitting it to clinical data available in the University of Michigan cancer center.

Likelihood ratio tests for a mixture of two von Mises distributions.

It is proposed that the orientation of elongate objects, such as bones, may be used to identify the flow direction of ancient river deposits. If true, elongate objects could be of great value when ancient bedforms such as ripples and dunes are not visible. Two sandstone quarries were investigated wherein the paleoflow direction was determined from both bedforms and elongate dinosaur bones. A mixture of two von Mises distributions captures the observation that elongate bones transported under unidirectional flow conditions will align both parallel and perpendicular to the flow direction. Likelihood ratio tests for a mixture of two von Mises distributions are given. The power of these tests is investigated by simulation since the direction of dinosaur bones agrees with the primary bedforms if the hypothesis test comparing the dominant mean direction of the bones to the paleoflow direction fails to reject. The likelihood ratio test on the dominant mean direction has reasonable power. If the two mean directions in the mixture distribution are pi apart, a more powerful likelihood ratio test can be used. The likelihood ratio test on the hypothesis that the two mean directions are exactly pi apart is useful in determining if the assumptions of the more powerful test are satisfied.