Prediction of lymph node metastases using pre-treatment PET radiomics of the primary tumour in esophageal adenocarcinoma: an external validation study.

OBJECTIVES: To improve clinical lymph node staging (cN-stage) in oesophageal adenocarcinoma by developing and externally validating three prediction models; one with clinical variables only, one with positron emission tomography (PET) radiomics only, and a combined clinical and radiomics model. METHODS: Consecutive patients with fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) avid tumours treated with neoadjuvant therapy between 2010 and 2016 in two international centres (n = 130 and n = 60, respectively) were included. Four clinical variables (age, gender, clinical T-stage and tumour regression grade) and PET radiomics from the primary tumour were used for model development. Diagnostic accuracy, area under curve (AUC), discrimination and calibration were calculated for each model. The prognostic significance was also assessed. RESULTS: The incidence of lymph node metastases was 58% in both cohorts. The areas under the curve of the clinical, radiomics and combined models were 0.79, 0.69 and 0.82 in the developmental cohort, and 0.65, 0.63 and 0.69 in the external validation cohort, with good calibration demonstrated. The area under the curve of current cN-stage in development and validation cohorts was 0.60 and 0.66, respectively. For overall survival, the combined clinical and radiomics model achieved the best discrimination performance in the external validation cohort (X2 = 6.08, df = 1, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Accurate diagnosis of lymph node metastases is crucial for prognosis and guiding treatment decisions. Despite finding improved predictive performance in the development cohort, the models using PET radiomics derived from the primary tumour were not fully replicated in an external validation cohort. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: This international study attempted to externally validate a new prediction model for lymph node metastases using PET radiomics. A model combining clinical variables and PET radiomics improved discrimination of lymph node metastases, but these results were not externally replicated.

Training and validation of a robust PET radiomic-based index to predict distant-relapse-free-survival after radio-chemotherapy for locally advanced pancreatic cancer.

PURPOSE: To assess the value of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) PET Radiomic Features (RF) in predicting Distant Relapse Free Survival (DRFS) in patients with Locally AdvancedPancreaticCancer (LAPC) treated with radio-chemotherapy. MATERIALS & METHODS: One-hundred-ninety-eight RFs were extracted using IBSI (Image Biomarker Standardization Initiative) consistent software from pre-radiotherapy images of 176 LAPC patients treated with moderate hypo-fractionation (44.25 Gy, 2.95 Gy/fr). Tumors were segmented by applying a previously validated semi-automatic method. One-hundred-twenty-six RFs were excluded due to poor reproducibility and/or repeatability and/or inter-scanner variability. The original cohort was randomly split into a training (n = 116) and a validation (n = 60) group. Multi-variable Cox regression was applied to the training group, including only independent RFs in the model. The resulting radiomic index was tested in the validation cohort. The impact of selected clinical variables was also investigated. RESULTS: The resulting Cox model included two first order RFs: Center of Mass Shift (COMshift) and 10th Intensity percentile (P10) (p = 0.0005, HR = 2.72, 95%CI = 1.54-4.80), showing worse outcomes for patients with lower COMshift and higher P10. Once stratified by quartile values (highest quartile vs the remaining), the index properly stratified patients according to their DRFS (p = 0.0024, log-rank test). Performances were confirmed in the validation cohort (p = 0.03, HR = 2.53, 95%CI = 0.96-6.65). The addition of clinical factors did not significantly improve the models' performance. CONCLUSIONS: A radiomic-based index including only two robust PET-RFs predicted DRFS of LAPC patients after radio-chemotherapy. The current results could find relevant applications in the treatment personalization of LAPC. A multi-institution independent validation has been planned.