Levelling up health in the early years: A cost-analysis of infant feeding and healthcare.

BACKGROUND: Although breastfeeding is recommended as the optimal form of nutrition in the first six months, it is not sustained as the predominant mode of feeding infants in Scotland. This study estimated the impact of infant feeding choices on primary and secondary healthcare service costs in a 13-year birth cohort. METHOD: Using linked administrative datasets, in a retrospective cohort design of 502,948 singletons born in Scotland between 1997 and 2009, we estimated the cost of GP consultations and hospital admissions by area deprivation and mode of infant feeding up to 6-8 weeks for ten common childhood conditions from birth to 27 months. Additionally, we calculated the potential healthcare savings if all infants in the cohort had been exclusively breastfed at 6-8 weeks. Discounting of 1.5% was applied following current health economic conventions and 2009/10 used as the base year. RESULTS: Over the study period, the estimated cost of hospital admissions in the cohort was £111 million and £2 million for the 2% subset of the cohort with primary care records. Within each quintile of deprivation, exclusively breastfed infants used fewer healthcare services and incurred lower costs compared to infants fed (any) formula milk. At least £10 million of healthcare costs may have been avoided if formula-fed infants had been exclusively breastfed within the first 6-8 weeks of birth. CONCLUSIONS: This study using a representative birth cohort demonstrates how breastmilk can promote equitable child health by reducing childhood illness and healthcare utilisation in the early years.

Deaths from 'diseases of despair' in Britain: comparing suicide, alcohol-related and drug-related mortality for birth cohorts in Scotland, England and Wales, and selected cities.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of increasing numbers of deaths from suicide, alcohol-related and drug-related causes to changes in overall mortality rates has been highlighted in various countries. In Scotland, particular vulnerable cohorts have been shown to be most at risk; however, it is unclear to what extent this applies elsewhere in Britain. The aim here was to compare mortality rates for different birth cohorts between Scotland and England and Wales (E&W), including key cities. METHODS: Mortality and population data (1981-2017) for Scotland, E&W and 10 cities were obtained from national statistical agencies. Ten-year birth cohorts and cohort-specific mortality rates (by age of death, sex, cause) were derived and compared between countries and cities. RESULTS: Similarities were observed between countries and cities in terms of peak ages of death, and the cohorts with the highest death rates. However, cohort-specific rates were notably higher in Scotland, particularly for alcohol-related and drug-related deaths. Across countries and cities, those born in 1965-1974 and 1975-1984 had the highest drug-related mortality rates (peak age at death: 30-34 years); the 1965-1974 birth cohort also had the highest male suicide rate (peak age: 40-44 years). For alcohol-related causes, the highest rates were among earlier cohorts (1935-1944, 1945-1954, 1955-1964)-peak age 60-64 years. CONCLUSIONS: The overall similarities suggest common underlying influences across Britain; however, their effects have been greatest in Scotland, confirming greater vulnerability among that population. In addressing the socioeconomic drivers of deaths from these causes, the cohorts identified here as being at greatest risk require particular attention.

Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Previously improving life expectancy and all-cause mortality in the UK has stalled since the early 2010s. National analyses have demonstrated changes in mortality rates for most age groups and causes of death, and with deprived populations most affected. The aims here were to establish whether similar changes have occurred across different parts of the UK (countries, cities), and to examine cause-specific trends in more detail. DESIGN: Population-based trend analysis. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Whole populations of countries and selected cities of the UK. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: European age-standardised mortality rates (calculated by cause of death, country, city, year (1981-2017), age group, sex and-for all countries and Scottish cities-deprivation quintiles); changes in rates between 5-year periods; summary measures of both relative (relative index of inequality) and absolute (slope index of inequality) inequalities. RESULTS: Changes in mortality from around 2011/2013 were observed throughout the UK for all adult age groups. For example, all-age female rates decreased by approximately 4%-6% during the 1980s and 1990s, approximately 7%-9% during the 2000s, but by <1% between 2011/2013 and 2015/2017. Equivalent figures for men were 4%-7%, 8%-12% and 1%-3%, respectively. This later period saw increased mortality among the most deprived populations, something observed in all countries and cities analysed, and for most causes of death: absolute and relative inequalities therefore increased. Although similar trends were seen across all parts of the UK, particular issues apply in Scotland, for example, higher and increasing drug-related mortality (with the highest rates observed in Dundee and Glasgow). CONCLUSIONS: The study presents further evidence of changing mortality in the UK. The timing, geography and socioeconomic gradients associated with the changes appear to support suggestions that they may result, at least in part, from UK Government 'austerity' measures which have disproportionately affected the poorest.

Does ethnic diversity explain intra-UK variation in mortality? A longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: It has been proposed that part of the explanation for higher mortality in Scotland compared with England and Wales, and Glasgow compared with other UK cities, relates to greater ethnic diversity in England and Wales. We sought to assess the extent to which this excess was attenuated by adjusting for ethnicity. We additionally explored the role of country of birth in any observed differences. SETTING: Scotland and England and Wales; Glasgow and Manchester. PARTICIPANTS: We used the Scottish Longitudinal Study and the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales (2001-2010). Participants (362 491 in total) were aged 35-74 years at baseline. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of all-cause mortality between 35 and 74 years old in Scotland and England and Wales, and in Glasgow and Manchester, adjusting for age, gender, socioeconomic position (SEP), ethnicity and country of birth. RESULTS: 18% of the Manchester sample was non-White compared with 3% in Glasgow (England and Wales: 10.4%; Scotland: 1.2%). The mortality incidence rate ratio was 1.33 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.56) in Glasgow compared with Manchester. This reduced to 1.25 (1.07 to 1.47) adjusting for SEP, and to 1.20 (1.02 to 1.42) adjusting for ethnicity and country of birth. For Scotland versus England and Wales, the corresponding figures were 18% higher mortality, reducing to 10%, and then 7%. Non-Whites born outside the UK had lower mortality. In the Scottish samples only, non-Whites born in the UK had significantly higher mortality than Whites born in the UK. CONCLUSIONS: The research supports the hypothesis that ethnic diversity and migration from outside UK play a role in explaining Scottish excess mortality. In Glasgow especially, however, a large excess remains: thus, previously articulated policy implications (addressing poverty, vulnerability and inequality) still apply.

Impact of maternal smoking on early childhood health: a retrospective cohort linked dataset analysis of 697 003 children born in Scotland 1997-2009.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking during pregnancy is associated with adverse health impacts on mother and child. We used a large linked Scottish dataset to produce contemporary estimates of the impact on child health, particularly hospitalisation. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study linking birth, death, maternity, infant health, child health surveillance and admission records. We examined the association between smoking status at maternity booking and pregnancy outcomes, hospital admission and death during the first 5 years of life. Models were adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, infant feeding, country of birth, sex, parity and delivery mode. We calculated population attributable fraction (PAF) for each outcome. SETTING: Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Singleton births between 1997 and 2009 (n=697 003) followed to March 2012. RESULTS: 332 386 children had at least one admission by 31 March 2012. There were 56 588 born small for gestational age, 40 492 prematurely and 1074 postneonatal deaths. Within the first 5 years of life, 56 615 children had at least one admission for acute respiratory infections, 24 088 for bronchiolitis and 7549 for asthma. Maternal smoking significantly increased admission for acute respiratory infections (adjusted HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.34, PAF 6.7%) and bronchiolitis (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.48 under 1 year, PAF 10.1%), asthma (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.37 age 1-5 years, PAF 7.1%) and bacterial meningitis (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.71, PAF 11.8%) age 0-5 years. Neonatal mortality (adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.49, PAF 6.7%), postneonatal mortality (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.87 to 2.53, PAF 22.3%), small for gestational age (OR 2.67, 95% CI 2.62 to 2.73, PAF 27.5%) and prematurity (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.44, PAF 8.8%) were higher among the offspring of smokers. CONCLUSION: Smoking during pregnancy causes significant ill health and death among children born in Scotland. These findings support continued investment to reduce smoking among women before, during and after pregnancy as 50% of women will go on to have further children.

Breastfeeding is associated with reduced childhood hospitalization: evidence from a Scottish Birth Cohort (1997-2009).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of childhood hospitalization associated with infant feeding patterns at 6-8 weeks of age in Scotland. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective population level study based on the linkage of birth, death, maternity, infant health, child health surveillance, and admission records for children born as single births in Scotland between 1997 and 2009 (n = 502 948) followed up to March 2012. Descriptive analyses, Kaplan Meier tests, and Cox regression were used to quantify the association between the mode of infant feeding and risk of childhood hospitalization for respiratory, gastrointestinal, and urinary tract infections, and other common childhood ailments during the study period. RESULTS: Within the first 6 months of life, there was a greater hazard ratio (HR) of hospitalization for common childhood illnesses among formula-fed infants (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.35-1.45) and mixed-fed infants (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.11-1.25) compared with infants exclusively breastfed after adjustment for parental, maternal, and infant health characteristics. Within the first year of life and beyond, a greater relative risk of hospitalization was observed among formula-fed infants for a range of individual illnesses reported in childhood including gastrointestinal, respiratory, and urinary tract infections, otitis media, fever, asthma, diabetes, and dental caries. CONCLUSIONS: Using linked administrative data, we found greater risks of hospitalization in early childhood for a range of common childhood illnesses among Scottish infants who were not exclusively breastfed at 6-8 weeks of age.

Regional alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality in Great Britain: novel insights using retail sales data.

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in population levels of alcohol-related harm exist across Great Britain, but these are not entirely consistent with differences in population levels of alcohol consumption. This incongruence may be due to the use of self-report surveys to estimate consumption. Survey data are subject to various biases and typically produce consumption estimates much lower than those based on objective alcohol sales data. However, sales data have never been used to estimate regional consumption within Great Britain (GB). This ecological study uses alcohol retail sales data to provide novel insights into regional alcohol consumption in GB, and to explore the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality. METHODS: Alcohol sales estimates derived from electronic sales, delivery records and retail outlet sampling were obtained. The volume of pure alcohol sold was used to estimate per adult consumption, by market sector and drink type, across eleven GB regions in 2010-11. Alcohol-related mortality rates were calculated for the same regions and a cross-sectional correlation analysis between consumption and mortality was performed. RESULTS: Per adult consumption in northern England was above the GB average and characterised by high beer sales. A high level of consumption in South West England was driven by on-trade sales of cider and spirits and off-trade wine sales. Scottish regions had substantially higher spirits sales than elsewhere in GB, particularly through the off-trade. London had the lowest per adult consumption, attributable to lower off-trade sales across most drink types. Alcohol-related mortality was generally higher in regions with higher per adult consumption. The relationship was weakened by the South West and Central Scotland regions, which had the highest consumption levels, but discordantly low and very high alcohol-related mortality rates, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides support for the ecological relationship between alcohol-related mortality and alcohol consumption. The synthesis of knowledge from a combination of sales, survey and mortality data, as well as primary research studies, is key to ensuring that regional alcohol consumption, and its relationship with alcohol-related harms, is better understood.

Informing the 'early years' agenda in Scotland: understanding infant feeding patterns using linked datasets.

BACKGROUND: Providing infants with the 'best possible start in life' is a priority for the Scottish Government. This is reflected in policy and health promotion strategies to increase breast feeding, which gives the best source of nutrients for healthy infant growth and development. However, the rate of breast feeding in Scotland remains one of the lowest in Europe. Information is needed to provide a better understanding of infant feeding and its impact on child health. This paper describes the development of a unique population-wide resource created to explore infant feeding and child health in Scotland. METHODS: Descriptive and multivariate analyses of linked routine/administrative maternal and infant health records for 731,595 infants born in Scotland between 1997 and 2009. RESULTS: A linked dataset was created containing a wide range of background, parental, maternal, birth and health service characteristics for a representative sample of infants born in Scotland over the study period. There was high coverage and completeness of infant feeding and other demographic, maternal and infant records. The results confirmed the importance of an enabling environment--cultural, family, health service and other maternal and infant health-related factors--in increasing the likelihood to breast feed. CONCLUSIONS: Using the linked dataset, it was possible to investigate the determinants of breast feeding for a representative sample of Scottish infants born between 1997 and 2009. The linked dataset is an important resource that has potential uses in research, policy design and targeting intervention programmes.

Alcohol-related mortality in deprived UK cities: worrying trends in young women challenge recent national downward trends.

BACKGROUND: Glasgow, the largest city in Scotland, has high levels of deprivation and a poor-health profile compared with other parts of Europe, which cannot be fully explained by the high levels of deprivation. The 'excess' premature mortality in Glasgow is now largely attributable to deaths from alcohol, drugs, suicide and violence. METHODS: Alcohol-related mortality in Glasgow from 1980 to 2011 was examined relative to the equally deprived UK cities of Manchester and Liverpool with the aim of identifying differences across the cities, with respect to gender, age and birth cohort, that could help explain the 'excess' mortality in Glasgow. RESULTS: In the 1980s, alcohol-related mortality in Glasgow was three times higher than in Manchester and Liverpool. Alcohol-related mortality increased in all three cities over the subsequent three decades, but a sharp rise in deaths in the early 1990s was unique to Glasgow. The increase in numbers of deaths in Glasgow was greater than in Manchester and Liverpool, but there was little difference in the pattern of alcohol-related deaths, by sex or birth cohort that could explain the excess mortality in Glasgow. The recent modest decrease in alcohol-related mortality was largely experienced by all birth cohorts, with the notable exception of the younger cohort (born between 1970 and 1979): women in this cohort across all three cities experienced disproportionate increases in alcohol-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: It is imperative that this early warning sign in young women in the UK is acted on if deaths from alcohol are to reduce in the long term.

Has Scotland always been the 'sick man' of Europe? An observational study from 1855 to 2006.

BACKGROUND: Scotland has been dubbed 'the sick man of Europe' on account of its higher mortality rates compared with other western European countries. It is not clear the length of time for which Scotland has had higher mortality rates. The root causes of the higher mortality in Scotland remain elusive. METHODS: Life expectancy data from the Human Mortality Database were tabulated and graphed for a selection of wealthy, mainly European countries from around 1850 onwards. RESULTS: Scotland had a life expectancy in the mid-range of countries included in the Human Mortality Database from the mid-19th century until around 1950. After 1950, Scottish life expectancy improved at a slower rate than in comparably wealthy nations before further faltering during the last 30 years. Scottish life expectancy now lies between that of western European and eastern European nations. The USA also displays a marked faltering in its life expectancy trend after 1981. There is an inverse association between life expectancy and the Index of Economic Freedom such that greater neoliberalism is associated with a smaller increase, or a decrease, in life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Life expectancy in Scotland has only been relatively low since around 1950. From 1980, life expectancy in Scotland, the USA and, to a greater extent, the former USSR displays a further relative faltering. It has been suggested that Scotland suffered disproportionately from the adoption of neoliberalism across the nations of the UK, and the evidence here both supports this suggestion and highlights other countries which may have suffered similarly.

Changing places? A comparative analysis of area-based health trends in Scotland through the 1980s and 1990s.

OBJECTIVES: Have places in Scotland with the worst/best levels of health and the worst/best experience of health determinants changed since the early 1980s? Twenty-year trends and local-level changes in a selection of health-related indicators were examined to answer this question. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Routine data for seven health-related indicators, principally derived from Scottish government 'social justice milestones', were collated and analysed at postcode-sector level across four 5-year periods covering the 1980s and 1990s. Analysis was carried out by decile, deprivation quintile, individual postcode sector and for selected 'regeneration areas'. RESULTS: There was little change in the ranking of areas with the worst and best health in Scotland over the 20-year period. The worst and best initial deciles remained in those positions throughout, while analysis by deprivation showed that the most disadvantaged areas had become relatively worse over the period. The regeneration areas, with one exception, showed little long-term improvement across the indicators. However, a number of postcode sectors across Scotland did buck this overall trend. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed the enduring nature of health differences between areas in Scotland, and provided further evidence of widening health inequalities between affluent and deprived areas. The positive experiences of a small number of areas may warrant further investigation since they may hold important lessons for area-based health improvement. The research highlights the potential of this type of analysis to monitor and evaluate area-based initiatives.

Primary health-care teams as adaptive organizations: exploring and explaining work variation using case studies in rural and urban Scotland.

It is acknowledged, internationally, that health-care practitioners' work differs between and urban areas. While several factors affect individual teams' activities, there is little understanding about how patterns of work evolve. Consideration of work in relation to local circumstances is important for training, devising contracts and redesigning services. Six case studies centred on Scottish rural and urban general practices were used to examine, in-depth, the activity of primary health-care teams. Quantitative workload data about patient contacts were collected over 24 months. Interviews and diaries revealed insightful qualitative data. Findings revealed that rural general practitioners and district nurses tended to conduct more consultations per practice patient compared with their urban counterparts. Conditions seen and work tasks varied between case study teams. Qualitative data suggested that the key reasons for variation were: local needs and circumstances; choices made about deployment of available time, team composition and the extent of access to other services. Primary care teams might be viewed as adaptive organization, with co-evolution of services produced by health professionals and local people. The study highlights limitations in the application of workload data and suggests that understanding the nature of work in relation to local circumstances is important in service redesign.

Implementing computerised workload data collection in rural primary health care.

OBJECTIVE: Describes the implementation of a computerised information system to collect workload data and discusses feedback from staff evaluation of use and value. DESIGN: Feedback interviews following service implementation. SETTING: Remote rural primary health care, Scotland. SUBJECTS: Thirty-three primary health care staff. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Not relevant, as the study was service development with qualitative evaluation. RESULTS: Findings of evaluation interviews indicate a number of themes common to remote rural practice that make implementing a computerised information system problematical. These include: logistical problems caused by small practice teams and wide areas covered; inadequate allowance for recording of blurred roles and the wide range of non-clinical duties carried out; lack of local contextual and cultural information, which is necessary to make sense of data collected. Remote rural health professionals found reports from the system of limited value as they felt they already had good knowledge of local activities and had few opportunities, due to small teams, to use data for service redesign. CONCLUSION: Remote rural primary care is underpinned by a number of organisational and philosophical features that require understanding when considering the implementation of initiatives developed in an urban working environment.