20-year depressive symptoms, dementia, and structural neuropathology in older women.

INTRODUCTION: The course of depressive symptoms and dementia risk is unclear, as are potential structural neuropathological common causes. METHODS: Utilizing joint latent class mixture models, we identified longitudinal trajectories of annually assessed depressive symptoms and dementia risk over 21 years in 957 older women (baseline age 72.7 years old) from the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study. In a subsample of 569 women who underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging, we examined whether estimates of cerebrovascular disease and Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related neurodegeneration were associated with identified trajectories. RESULTS: Five trajectories of depressive symptoms and dementia risk were identified. Compared to women with minimal symptoms, women who reported mild and stable and emerging depressive symptoms were at the highest risk of developing dementia and had more cerebrovascular disease and AD-related neurodegeneration. DISCUSSION: There are heterogeneous profiles of depressive symptoms and dementia risk. Common neuropathological factors may contribute to both depression and dementia. Highlights The progression of depressive symptoms and concurrent dementia risk is heterogeneous. Emerging depressive symptoms may be a prodromal symptom of dementia. Cerebrovascular disease and AD are potentially shared neuropathological factors.

Computerized adaptive test strategies for the matrix reasoning subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, 4th Edition (WAIS-IV).

OBJECTIVE: Most neuropsychological tests were developed without the benefit of modern psychometric theory. We used item response theory (IRT) methods to determine whether a widely used test - the 26-item Matrix Reasoning subtest of the WAIS-IV - might be used more efficiently if it were administered using computerized adaptive testing (CAT). METHOD: Data on the Matrix Reasoning subtest from 2197 participants enrolled in the National Neuropsychology Network (NNN) were analyzed using a two-parameter logistic (2PL) IRT model. Simulated CAT results were generated to examine optimal short forms using fixed-length CATs of 3, 6, and 12 items and scores were compared to the original full subtest score. CAT models further explored how many items were needed to achieve a selected precision of measurement (standard error ≤ .40). RESULTS: The fixed-length CATs of 3, 6, and 12 items correlated well with full-length test results (with r = .90, .97 and .99, respectively). To achieve a standard error of .40 (approximate reliability = .84) only 3-7 items had to be administered for a large percentage of individuals. CONCLUSIONS: This proof-of-concept investigation suggests that the widely used Matrix Reasoning subtest of the WAIS-IV might be shortened by more than 70% in most examinees while maintaining acceptable measurement precision. If similar savings could be realized in other tests, the accessibility of neuropsychological assessment might be markedly enhanced, and more efficient time use could lead to broader subdomain assessment.

Self-reported mid- to late-life physical and recreational activities: Associations with late-life cognition.

OBJECTIVE: Physical and recreational activities are behaviors that may modify risk of late-life cognitive decline. We sought to examine the role of retrospectively self-reported midlife (age 40) physical and recreational activity engagement - and self-reported change in these activities from age 40 to initial study visit - in predicting late-life cognition. METHOD: Data were obtained from 898 participants in a longitudinal study of cognitive aging in demographically and cognitively diverse older adults (Age: range = 49-93 years, M = 75, SD = 7.19). Self-reported physical and recreational activity participation at age 40 and at the initial study visit were quantified using the Life Experiences Assessment Form. Change in activities was modeled using latent change scores. Cognitive outcomes were obtained annually (range = 2-17 years) using the Spanish and English Neuropsychological Assessment Scales, which measure verbal episodic memory, semantic memory, visuospatial processing, and executive functioning. RESULTS: Physical activity engagement at age 40 was strongly associated with cognitive performance in all four domains at the initial visit and with global cognitive slope. However, change in physical activities after age 40 was not associated with cognitive outcomes. In contrast, recreational activity engagement - both at age 40 and change after 40 - was predictive of cognitive intercepts and slope. CONCLUSIONS: Retrospectively self-reported midlife physical and recreational activity engagement were strongly associated with late-life cognition - both level of performance and rate of future decline. However, the data suggest that maintenance of recreational activity engagement (e.g., writing, taking classes, reading) after age 40 is more strongly associated with late-life cognition than continued maintenance of physical activity levels.

A Note on Statistical Hypothesis Testing: Probabilifying Modus Tollens Invalidates Its Force? Not True!

The import or force of the result of a statistical test has long been portrayed as consistent with deductive reasoning. The simplest form of deductive argument has a first premise with conditional form, such as p→q, which means that "if p is true, then q must be true." Given the first premise, one can either affirm or deny the antecedent clause (p) or affirm or deny the consequent claim (q). This leads to four forms of deductive argument, two of which are valid forms of reasoning and two of which are invalid. The typical conclusion is that only a single form of argument-denying the consequent, also known as modus tollens-is a reasonable analog of decisions based on statistical hypothesis testing. Now, statistical evidence is never certain, but is associated with a probability (i.e., a p-level). Some have argued that modus tollens, when probabilified, loses its force and leads to ridiculous, nonsensical conclusions. Their argument is based on specious problem setup. This note is intended to correct this error and restore the position of modus tollens as a valid form of deductive inference in statistical matters, even when it is probabilified.

Sensitivity of the NIH Toolbox to Detect Cognitive Change in Individuals With Intellectual and Developmental Disability.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Individuals with intellectual disability (ID) experience protracted cognitive development compared with typical youth. Sensitive measurement of cognitive change in this population is a critical need for clinical trials and other intervention studies, but well-validated outcome measures are scarce. This study's aim was to evaluate the sensitivity of the NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery (NIHTB-CB) to detect developmental changes in groups with ID-fragile X syndrome (FXS), Down syndrome (DS), and other ID (OID)-and to provide further support for its use as an outcome measure for treatment trials. METHODS: We administered the NIHTB-CB and a reference standard cross-validation measure (Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scales, Fifth Edition [SB5]) to 256 individuals with FXS, DS, and OID (ages 6-27 years). After 2 years of development, we retested 197 individuals. Group developmental changes in each cognitive domain of the NIHTB-CB and SB5 were assessed using latent change score models, and 2-year growth was evaluated at 3 age points (10, 16, and 22 years). RESULTS: Overall, effect sizes of growth measured by the NIHTB-CB tests were comparable with or exceeded those of the SB5. The NIHTB-CB showed significant gains in almost all domains in OID at younger ages (10 years), with continued gains at 16 years and stability in early adulthood (22 years). The FXS group showed delayed gains in attention and inhibitory control compared with OID. The DS group had delayed gains in receptive vocabulary compared with OID. Unlike the other groups, DS had significant growth in early adulthood in 2 domains (working memory and attention/inhibitory control). Notably, each group's pattern of NIHTB-CB growth across development corresponded to their respective pattern of SB5 growth. DISCUSSION: The NIHTB-CB is sensitive to developmental changes in individuals with ID. Comparison with levels and timing of growth on the cross-validation measure shows that the NIHTB-CB has potential to identify meaningful trajectories across cognitive domains and ID etiologies. Sensitivity to change within the context of treatment studies and delineation of clinically meaningful changes in NIHTB-CB scores, linked to daily functioning, must be established in future research to evaluate the battery more completely as a key outcome measure.

Construct identification in the neuropsychological battery: What are we measuring?

OBJECTIVE: Major obstacles to data harmonization in neuropsychology include lack of consensus about what constructs and tests are most important and invariant across healthy and clinical populations. This study addressed these challenges using data from the National Neuropsychology Network (NNN). METHOD: Data were obtained from 5,000 NNN participants and Pearson standardization samples. Analyses included variables from four instruments: Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, 4th Edition (WAIS-IV); Wechsler Memory Scale, 4th Edition (WMS-IV); California Verbal Learning Test, 3rd Edition (CVLT3); and Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS). We used confirmatory factor analysis to evaluate models suggested by prior work and examined fit statistics and measurement invariance across samples. We examined relations of factor scores to demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: For each instrument, we identified four first-order and one second-order factor. Optimal models in patients generally paralleled the best-fitting models in the standardization samples, including task-specific factors. Analysis of the NNN data prompted specification of a Recognition-Familiarity factor on the WMS-IV and an Inhibition-Switching factor on the D-KEFS. Analyses showed strong to strict factorial invariance across samples with expected differences in factor means and variances. The Recognition-Familiarity factor correlated with age more strongly in NNN than in the standardization sample. CONCLUSIONS: Factor models derived from healthy groups generally fit well in patients. NNN data helped identify novel Recognition-Familiarity and Inhibition-Switching factors that were also invariant across samples and may be clinically useful. The findings support efforts to identify evidence-based and optimally efficient measurements of neuropsychological constructs that are valid across groups. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Interrogating the validity of cumulative indices of environmental and genetic risk for negative developmental outcomes.

Indices of cumulative risk (CR) have long been used in developmental research to encode the number of risk factors a child or adolescent experiences that may impede optimal developmental outcomes. Initial contributions concentrated on indices of cumulative environmental risk; more recently, indices of cumulative genetic risk have been employed. In this article, regression analytic methods are proposed for interrogating strongly the validity of risk indices by testing optimality of compositing weights, enabling more informative modeling of effects of CR indices. Reanalyses of data from two studies are reported. One study involved 10 environmental risk factors predicting Verbal IQ in 215 four-year-old children. The second study included an index of genetic CR in a G×E interaction investigation of 281 target participants assessed at age 15 years and then again at age 31 years for observed hostility during videotaped interactions with close family relations. Principles to guide evaluation of results of statistical modeling are presented, and implications of results for research and theory are discussed. The ultimate goals of this paper are to develop stronger tests of conjectures involving CR indices and to promote methods for improving replicability of results across studies.

Predictors of Prosecutorial Decisions in Reports of Child Sexual Abuse.

A retrospective examination of 500 child sexual abuse reports to prosecutor's offices analyzed case progress and predictors of attrition, including details about alleged perpetrator(s), victim(s), their families, and other case characteristics. Less than one in five cases proceeded to prosecution. For the full sample, we describe all outcomes and differentiate prosecutors' decisions to (a) intake/close, (b) investigate/close, or (c) prosecute; these stages comprise a 3-level dependent variable. Because it is important to understand which variables are associated with progress to each stage, we examined unique predictors of the decision to "investigate," and to "prosecute." Our multivariate analyses examine 325 cases with a perpetrator aged 16 and older. Caregiver support and perpetrator age were significant predictors across all outcome variables, while other factors were barriers to the "prosecute" decision only. Results highlight the complexities of case characteristics that are important at different stages of prosecutorial decision-making and inform future interventions.

Thinking thrice about sum scores, and then some more about measurement and analysis.

Measurement is fundamental to all research in psychology and should be accorded greater scrutiny than typically occurs. Among other claims, McNeish and Wolf (Thinking twice about sum scores. Behavior Research Methods, 52, 2287-2305) argued that use of sum scores (a) implies that a highly constrained latent variable model underlies items comprising a scale, and (b) may misrepresent or bias relations with other criteria. The central claim by McNeish and Wolf that use of sum scores requires the assumption that a parallel test model underlies item responses is incorrect and without psychometric merit. Instead, if a set of items is unidimensional, estimators of reliability are available even if the factor model underlying the set of items does not have a highly constrained form. Thus, dimensionality of a set of items is the key issue, and whether strict constraints on parameter estimates do or do not hold dictate the appropriate way to estimate reliability. McNeish and Wolf also claimed that more precise forms of scoring, such as estimating factor scores, would be preferable to sum scores. We provide analytic bases for reliability estimation and then provide several demonstrations of reliability estimation and the relative advantages of sum scores and factor scores. We contend that several claims by McNeish and Wolf are questionable and that, as a result, multiple recommendations they made and conclusions they drew are incorrect. The upshot is that, once the dimensional structure of a set of items is verified, sum scores often have a solid psychometric basis and therefore are frequently quite adequate for psychological research.

Sex differences in the genetic architecture of cognitive resilience to Alzheimer's disease.

Approximately 30% of elderly adults are cognitively unimpaired at time of death despite the presence of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology at autopsy. Studying individuals who are resilient to the cognitive consequences of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology may uncover novel therapeutic targets to treat Alzheimer's disease. It is well established that there are sex differences in response to Alzheimer's disease pathology, and growing evidence suggests that genetic factors may contribute to these differences. Taken together, we sought to elucidate sex-specific genetic drivers of resilience. We extended our recent large scale genomic analysis of resilience in which we harmonized cognitive data across four cohorts of cognitive ageing, in vivo amyloid PET across two cohorts, and autopsy measures of amyloid neuritic plaque burden across two cohorts. These data were leveraged to build robust, continuous resilience phenotypes. With these phenotypes, we performed sex-stratified [n (males) = 2093, n (females) = 2931] and sex-interaction [n (both sexes) = 5024] genome-wide association studies (GWAS), gene and pathway-based tests, and genetic correlation analyses to clarify the variants, genes and molecular pathways that relate to resilience in a sex-specific manner. Estimated among cognitively normal individuals of both sexes, resilience was 20-25% heritable, and when estimated in either sex among cognitively normal individuals, resilience was 15-44% heritable. In our GWAS, we identified a female-specific locus on chromosome 10 [rs827389, ß (females) = 0.08, P (females) = 5.76 × 10-09, ß (males) = -0.01, P(males) = 0.70, ß (interaction) = 0.09, P (interaction) = 1.01 × 10-04] in which the minor allele was associated with higher resilience scores among females. This locus is located within chromatin loops that interact with promoters of genes involved in RNA processing, including GATA3. Finally, our genetic correlation analyses revealed shared genetic architecture between resilience phenotypes and other complex traits, including a female-specific association with frontotemporal dementia and male-specific associations with heart rate variability traits. We also observed opposing associations between sexes for multiple sclerosis, such that more resilient females had a lower genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis, and more resilient males had a higher genetic susceptibility to multiple sclerosis. Overall, we identified sex differences in the genetic architecture of resilience, identified a female-specific resilience locus and highlighted numerous sex-specific molecular pathways that may underly resilience to Alzheimer's disease pathology. This study illustrates the need to conduct sex-aware genomic analyses to identify novel targets that are unidentified in sex-agnostic models. Our findings support the theory that the most successful treatment for an individual with Alzheimer's disease may be personalized based on their biological sex and genetic context.

Rationale and Design of the National Neuropsychology Network.

OBJECTIVE: The National Neuropsychology Network (NNN) is a multicenter clinical research initiative funded by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH; R01 MH118514) to facilitate neuropsychology's transition to contemporary psychometric assessment methods with resultant improvement in test validation and assessment efficiency. METHOD: The NNN includes four clinical research sites (Emory University; Medical College of Wisconsin; University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA); University of Florida) and Pearson Clinical Assessment. Pearson Q-interactive (Q-i) is used for data capture for Pearson published tests; web-based data capture tools programmed by UCLA, which serves as the Coordinating Center, are employed for remaining measures. RESULTS: NNN is acquiring item-level data from 500-10,000 patients across 47 widely used Neuropsychology (NP) tests and sharing these data via the NIMH Data Archive. Modern psychometric methods (e.g., item response theory) will specify the constructs measured by different tests and determine their positive/negative predictive power regarding diagnostic outcomes and relationships to other clinical, historical, and demographic factors. The Structured History Protocol for NP (SHiP-NP) helps standardize acquisition of relevant history and self-report data. CONCLUSIONS: NNN is a proof-of-principle collaboration: by addressing logistical challenges, NNN aims to engage other clinics to create a national and ultimately an international network. The mature NNN will provide mechanisms for data aggregation enabling shared analysis and collaborative research. NNN promises ultimately to enable robust diagnostic inferences about neuropsychological test patterns and to promote the validation of novel adaptive assessment strategies that will be more efficient, more precise, and more sensitive to clinical contexts and individual/cultural differences.

Parents' attachment orientation, interviewers' support, and children's memory for a mildly distressing event.

Parents' attachment orientations predict children's memory about distressing life events, such that parents who are less secure in close relationships tend to have children who are less accurate in their memory reports. This study examined whether socially supportive interviewing would reduce differences in children's memory performance associated with parents' attachment. Children (3 to 5 years, N = 63) and their primary caretakers took part in the Preschool Attachment Classification System (PACS), a moderately distressing event for children of preschool age that is based on the Strange Situation Procedure. Children's memory for the event was then tested shortly thereafter by either a supportive or a non-supportive interviewer. In the non-supportive condition, children whose parents scored higher on attachment avoidance provided lower proportions of correct free recall. However, the association was not significant for children in the supportive condition. In addition, higher parental attachment anxiety predicted lower proportions of correct free recall for children of highly avoidant parents, but not for children of parents lower in attachment avoidance. For direct questions, age differences in proportion correct and proportion incorrect favoured older children. Findings provide insight into interviewing techniques at time of memory retrieval that benefit children of insecure parents.

The latent factor structure underlying regional brain volume change and its relation to cognitive change in older adults.

OBJECTIVE: Late-life changes in cognition and brain integrity are both highly multivariate, time-dependent processes that are essential for understanding cognitive aging and neurodegenerative disease outcomes. The present study seeks to identify a latent variable model capable of efficiently reducing a multitude of structural brain change magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurements into a smaller number of dimensions. We further seek to demonstrate the validity of this model by evaluating its ability to reproduce patterns of coordinated brain volume change and to explain the rate of cognitive decline over time. METHOD: We used longitudinal cognitive data and structural MRI scans, obtained from a diverse sample of 358 participants (Mage = 74.81, SD = 7.17), to implement latent variable models for measuring brain change and to estimate the effects of these brain change factors on cognitive decline. RESULTS: Results supported a bifactor model for brain change with four group factors (prefrontal, temporolimbic, medial temporal, and posterior association) and one general change factor (global atrophy). Atrophy in the global (ß = 0.434, SE = 0.070), temporolimbic (ß = 0.275, SE = 0.085), and medial temporal (ß = 0.240, SE = 0.085) factors were the strongest predictors of global cognitive decline. Overall, the brain change model explained 59% of the variance in global cognitive slope. CONCLUSIONS: The current results suggest that brain change across 27 bilateral regions of interest can be grouped into five change factors, three of which (global gray matter, temporolimbic, and medial temporal lobe atrophy) are strongly associated with cognitive decline. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Genetic variants and functional pathways associated with resilience to Alzheimer's disease.

Approximately 30% of older adults exhibit the neuropathological features of Alzheimer's disease without signs of cognitive impairment. Yet, little is known about the genetic factors that allow these potentially resilient individuals to remain cognitively unimpaired in the face of substantial neuropathology. We performed a large, genome-wide association study (GWAS) of two previously validated metrics of cognitive resilience quantified using a latent variable modelling approach and representing better-than-predicted cognitive performance for a given level of neuropathology. Data were harmonized across 5108 participants from a clinical trial of Alzheimer's disease and three longitudinal cohort studies of cognitive ageing. All analyses were run across all participants and repeated restricting the sample to individuals with unimpaired cognition to identify variants at the earliest stages of disease. As expected, all resilience metrics were genetically correlated with cognitive performance and education attainment traits (P-values < 2.5 × 10-20), and we observed novel correlations with neuropsychiatric conditions (P-values < 7.9 × 10-4). Notably, neither resilience metric was genetically correlated with clinical Alzheimer's disease (P-values > 0.42) nor associated with APOE (P-values > 0.13). In single variant analyses, we observed a genome-wide significant locus among participants with unimpaired cognition on chromosome 18 upstream of ATP8B1 (index single nucleotide polymorphism rs2571244, minor allele frequency = 0.08, P = 2.3 × 10-8). The top variant at this locus (rs2571244) was significantly associated with methylation in prefrontal cortex tissue at multiple CpG sites, including one just upstream of ATPB81 (cg19596477; P = 2 × 10-13). Overall, this comprehensive genetic analysis of resilience implicates a putative role of vascular risk, metabolism, and mental health in protection from the cognitive consequences of neuropathology, while also providing evidence for a novel resilience gene along the bile acid metabolism pathway. Furthermore, the genetic architecture of resilience appears to be distinct from that of clinical Alzheimer's disease, suggesting that a shift in focus to molecular contributors to resilience may identify novel pathways for therapeutic targets.

Validation of the NIH Toolbox Cognitive Battery in intellectual disability.

OBJECTIVE: To advance the science of cognitive outcome measurement for individuals with intellectual disability (ID), we established administration guidelines and evaluated the psychometric properties of the NIH-Toolbox Cognitive Battery (NIHTB-CB) for use in clinical research. METHODS: We assessed feasibility, test-retest reliability, and convergent validity of the NIHTB-CB (measuring executive function, processing speed, memory, and language) by assessing 242 individuals with fragile X syndrome (FXS), Down syndrome (DS), and other ID, ages 6 through 25 years, with retesting completed after 1 month. To facilitate accessibility and measurement accuracy, we developed accommodations and standard assessment guidelines, documented in an e-manual. Finally, we assessed the sensitivity of the battery to expected syndrome-specific cognitive phenotypes. RESULTS: Above a mental age of 5.0 years, all tests had excellent feasibility. More varied feasibility across tests was seen between mental ages of 3 and 4 years. Reliability and convergent validity ranged from moderate to strong. Each test and the Crystallized and Fluid Composite scores correlated moderately to strongly with IQ, and the Crystallized Composite had modest correlations with adaptive behavior. The NIHTB-CB showed known-groups validity by detecting expected executive function deficits in FXS and a receptive language deficit in DS. CONCLUSION: The NIHTB-CB is a reliable and valid test battery for children and young adults with ID with a mental age of ≈5 years and above. Adaptations for very low-functioning or younger children with ID are needed for some subtests to expand the developmental range of the battery. Studies examining sensitivity to developmental and treatment changes are now warranted.

Estimation of Latent Variable Scores with Multiple Group Item Response Models: Implications for Integrative Data Analysis.

Integrative data analysis (IDA) involves obtaining multiple datasets, scaling the data to a common metric, and jointly analyzing the data. The first step in IDA is to scale the multisample item-level data to a common metric, which is often done with multiple group item response models (MGM). With invariance constraints tested and imposed, the estimated latent variable scores from the MGM serve as an observed variable in subsequent analyses. This approach was used with empirical multiple group data and different latent variable estimates were obtained for individuals with the same response pattern from different studies. A Monte Carlo simulation study was then conducted to compare the accuracy of latent variable estimates from the MGM, a single-group item response model, and an MGM where group differences are ignored. Results suggest that these alternative approaches led to consistent and equally accurate latent variable estimates. Implications for IDA are discussed.

Distinguishing differential susceptibility, diathesis-stress, and vantage sensitivity: Beyond the single gene and environment model.

Currently, two main approaches exist to distinguish differential susceptibility from diathesis-stress and vantage sensitivity in Genotype × Environment interaction (G × E) research: regions of significance (RoS) and competitive-confirmatory approaches. Each is limited by its single-gene/single-environment foci given that most phenotypes are the product of multiple interacting genetic and environmental factors. We thus addressed these two concerns in a recently developed R package (LEGIT) for constructing G × E interaction models with latent genetic and environmental scores using alternating optimization. Herein we test, by means of computer simulation, diverse G × E models in the context of both single and multiple genes and environments. Results indicate that the RoS and competitive-confirmatory approaches were highly accurate when the sample size was large, whereas the latter performed better in small samples and for small effect sizes. The competitive-confirmatory approach generally had good accuracy (a) when effect size was moderate and N ≥ 500 and (b) when effect size was large and N ≥ 250, whereas RoS performed poorly. Computational tools to determine the type of G × E of multiple genes and environments are provided as extensions in our LEGIT R package.

Particulate matter and episodic memory decline mediated by early neuroanatomic biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease.

Evidence suggests exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) may increase the risk for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. Whether PM2.5 alters brain structure and accelerates the preclinical neuropsychological processes remains unknown. Early decline of episodic memory is detectable in preclinical Alzheimer's disease. Therefore, we conducted a longitudinal study to examine whether PM2.5 affects the episodic memory decline, and also explored the potential mediating role of increased neuroanatomic risk of Alzheimer's disease associated with exposure. Participants included older females (n = 998; aged 73-87) enrolled in both the Women's Health Initiative Study of Cognitive Aging and the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study of Magnetic Resonance Imaging, with annual (1999-2010) episodic memory assessment by the California Verbal Learning Test, including measures of immediate free recall/new learning (List A Trials 1-3; List B) and delayed free recall (short- and long-delay), and up to two brain scans (MRI-1: 2005-06; MRI-2: 2009-10). Subjects were assigned Alzheimer's disease pattern similarity scores (a brain-MRI measured neuroanatomical risk for Alzheimer's disease), developed by supervised machine learning and validated with data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Based on residential histories and environmental data on air monitoring and simulated atmospheric chemistry, we used a spatiotemporal model to estimate 3-year average PM2.5 exposure preceding MRI-1. In multilevel structural equation models, PM2.5 was associated with greater declines in immediate recall and new learning, but no association was found with decline in delayed-recall or composite scores. For each interquartile increment (2.81 µg/m3) of PM2.5, the annual decline rate was significantly accelerated by 19.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.9% to 36.2%] for Trials 1-3 and 14.8% (4.4% to 24.9%) for List B performance, adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Long-term PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased Alzheimer's disease pattern similarity scores, which accounted for 22.6% (95% CI: 1% to 68.9%) and 10.7% (95% CI: 1.0% to 30.3%) of the total adverse PM2.5 effects on Trials 1-3 and List B, respectively. The observed associations remained after excluding incident cases of dementia and stroke during the follow-up, or further adjusting for small-vessel ischaemic disease volumes. Our findings illustrate the continuum of PM2.5 neurotoxicity that contributes to early decline of immediate free recall/new learning at the preclinical stage, which is mediated by progressive atrophy of grey matter indicative of increased Alzheimer's disease risk, independent of cerebrovascular damage.

Dynamic change of cognitive reserve: associations with changes in brain, cognition, and diagnosis.

Cognitive reserve is inherently a dynamic construct; however, traditional methods of estimating reserve have focused on static proxy variables. A recently proposed psychometric approach entails modeling reserve as residual cognition not explained by demographic and brain variables. In this study, we extended this approach to longitudinal measurement and examined how change in reserve relates to clinical outcomes in late life and influences the effect of brain atrophy on cognitive decline. Results indicated that cognitive reserve changes were associated with progression of clinical diagnosis. More rapid depletion of cognitive reserve was associated with faster decline in nonmemory cognitive functions, even after accounting for longitudinal brain atrophy. The effect of longitudinal brain atrophy on cognitive decline differed based on the extent to which an individual's reserve changed. Whereas depletion of reserve appeared to unmask the effects of brain atrophy on cognitive decline, maintenance of reserve buffered against the negative effects of brain atrophy. Study results highlight that changes in reserve may have important implications for individual differences in cognitive aging trajectories.