The Swedish monitoring of surface waters: 50 years of adaptive monitoring.

For more than 50 years, scientific insights from surface water monitoring have supported Swedish evidence-based environmental management. Efforts to understand and control eutrophication in the 1960s led to construction of wastewater treatment plants with phosphorus retention, while acid rain research in the 1970s contributed to international legislation curbing emissions. By the 1990s, long-time series were being used to infer climate effects on surface water chemistry and biology. Monitoring data play a key role in implementing the EU Water Framework Directive and other legislation and have been used to show beneficial effects of agricultural management on Baltic Sea eutrophication. The Swedish experience demonstrates that well-designed and financially supported surface water monitoring can be used to understand and manage a range of stressors and societal concerns. Using scientifically sound adaptive monitoring principles to balance continuity and change has ensured long-time series and the capability to address new questions over time.

Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry.

Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain recent, widespread increases in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the surface waters of glaciated landscapes across eastern North America and northern and central Europe. Some invoke anthropogenic forcing through mechanisms related to climate change, nitrogen deposition or changes in land use, and by implication suggest that current concentrations and fluxes are without precedent. All of these hypotheses imply that DOC levels will continue to rise, with unpredictable consequences for the global carbon cycle. Alternatively, it has been proposed that DOC concentrations are returning toward pre-industrial levels as a result of a gradual decline in the sulphate content of atmospheric deposition. Here we show, through the assessment of time series data from 522 remote lakes and streams in North America and northern Europe, that rising trends in DOC between 1990 and 2004 can be concisely explained by a simple model based solely on changes in deposition chemistry and catchment acid-sensitivity. We demonstrate that DOC concentrations have increased in proportion to the rates at which atmospherically deposited anthropogenic sulphur and sea salt have declined. We conclude that acid deposition to these ecosystems has been partially buffered by changes in organic acidity and that the rise in DOC is integral to recovery from acidification. Over recent decades, deposition-driven increases in organic matter solubility may have increased the export of DOC to the oceans, a potentially important component of regional carbon balances. The increase in DOC concentrations in these regions appears unrelated to other climatic factors.

Modeling the effect of liming on calcium concentration in Swedish lakes.

To abate the severe acidification of Swedish lakes are about 7% directly limed (AL-lakes). These are important to include when assessing acidification. Consequently, we need to estimate their chemical status as if they were not lime-affected. We hypothesize that there is a spatial dependence for calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) concentrations. Spatial variation is determined using variograms. We study lakes within two 150 * 150 km quadrates (EMEP150-grid) in the middle and southern parts of Sweden. We model Ca in AL-lakes using the Ca and Mg concentrations in nearby, unaffected lakes (UL-lakes). The mean Ca/Mg for the three or seven closest UL-lakes is used. We assume that Ca/Mg is constant for UL-lakes and that Mg unaltered by liming. For UL-lakes, Ca and Mg are spatially dependent. For AL-lakes, there is a spatial dependence for Mg, but, as anticipated, not for Ca. The modeled Ca for UL-lakes show a good correspondence with measured Ca; r2 > 0.6; slopes close to 1 and intercepts almost 0. Using three or seven nearby lakes when modeling Ca give similar results. Modeled Ca was higher than measured Ca for 36% (three closest lakes) and 38% (seven closest) of the modeled AL-lakes in the middle part of Sweden. The corresponding results for the southern part were 10% and 9%, respectively. This model is an acceptable estimator of Ca in limed lakes and for estimating critical loads and acidification status on an EMEP-scale.

Synchronous variation in water chemistry for 80 lakes in southern Sweden.

Variation in water chemistry was studied in 80 lakes in southern Sweden. The lakes had forest dominated catchments. The length of the time series was 14 years. Synchrony was calculated as Pearson's product moment correlation coefficients for all combinations of lakes, i.e. 3160 lake-pairs. The chemical variables studied were non-marine sulphate (SO4*), non-marine calcium (Ca*), absorbance and acid neutralising capacity (ANC). Statistically significant synchrony occurred in 93% of all lake-pairs for SO4*, and between 58 and 67% for absorbance, Ca* and ANC. In 70% of all lake-pairs, the synchrony was >0.71 for SO4*, which means that more than half of the variation in one lake could be explained by the variation in the other lake. For absorbance, Ca* and ANC, about 25% of the lake-pairs had a synchrony >0.71. The relatively high synchrony for SO4* occurred during an overall downward trend in SO4* concentration. The degree of synchrony in our study was at a level comparable to other studies in northern America and England. However, our study included lakes in a much larger area, with distances of up to 500 km between the lakes, while earlier studies were made on small lake districts with lakes located within approximately 50 km. In contrast to these earlier studies, there was no correlation between synchrony and distance, lake characteristics or catchment characteristics. However, when a small subset of 15 lakes in the southeast of Sweden was selected, such relations were found.

Representativity of a mid-lake surface water chemistry sample.

A mid-lake sample is the conventional sampling strategy used in lake chemistry monitoring programs. Hence, addressing the question of how representative a mid-lake sample is of in-lake conditions is important for interpreting changes in long-term monitoring programs. Our hypotheses were that; (i) the location of a sampling site within a lake will affect its representativity and (ii) a mid-lake sample could be considered representative of average surface water physico-chemistry. We focused on the surface water chemistry in 34 Swedish lakes. To obtain a wide diversity of lake types, the lakes were classified according to mean depth, water residence time, and three main ecoregions. Two sampling seasons were selected, representative of high and low biological activity and stratified and non-stratified conditions, respectively. Ten samples were collected in each lake. The mid-lake samples differed significantly from the nine remaining samples in less than 4% of the total number of two-sample t-tests performed. Samples collected close to lake inlets differed from the other samples more often than samples collected in the central parts of the lakes. We concluded that the location of a sampling site within a lake may affect the sample's representativity of lake water chemistry, and that a mid-lake surface water sample could be considered representative of surface water chemistry.

Time series of long-term annual fluxes in the streamwater of nine forest catchments from the Swedish environmental monitoring program (PMK 5).

International cooperation has contributed to major declines in SO(2) emission and S deposition during the last two decades in Europe. The chemical recovery from already anthropogenically acidified sites however, has been slow. In the present paper, long-term trends of chemical fluxes from nine selected forested reference catchments were studied, to detect recovery from acidification and leaching of S and base cations (BC). A decline in S deposition resulted in a decreased flux of non-marine sulfate (SO(4)*) in seven of nine streams, with statistically significant changes in four. The two cases with slight increases in SO(4)* flux resulted from increasing water flow. The SO(4)* decrease was followed by a recovery from acidification in terms of increased ANC flux in those sites in southern Sweden that were chronically acidified. The recovery was probably slowed down by leaching of SO(4) from the soil and a decrease in the flux of BC. A better understanding of the processes for leaching of SO(4) and BC is needed in order to quantify the need for further restrictions of sulfur emissions to allow a long term recovery of acidified catchments. The flux calculations available from small catchments such as those in this study, are of value for that understanding.

Recovery from acidification in Swedish forest streams.

Sulphur deposition in Sweden has decreased to less than half of the levels recorded in 1970 and now signs of recovery from acidification of surface waters are beginning to appear. We investigated time trends of water chemistry between 1985 and 1998 in 13 streams draining small forested catchments with generally shallow acid sensitive soils. At nine of the catchments, bulk deposition was monitored as well. Sulphate concentrations decreased in both stream water and deposition, although with somewhat smaller trends in stream water compared with deposition. The magnitude of the trends in sulphate increased from north to south, following a gradient of increasing industrial influence. Five sites in the southern half of the country showed weak signs of recovery from acidification in terms of increasing concentrations of acid neutralising capacity and decreasing concentrations of hydrogen ions, corresponding to annual increases of 0.01 pH units. Changes in stream discharge and concentrations of marine salts and organic acids could not explain the observed decrease in acidity and the results were interpreted as recovery from anthropogenic acidification. For the northern half of Sweden, any changes in water chemistry could be attributed to natural variation in climate and marine influence, and the effect of anthropogenic acidification was negligible.