Sensitivity to missing not at random dropout in clinical trials: Use and interpretation of the trimmed means estimator.

Outcome values in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be missing not at random (MNAR), if patients with extreme outcome values are more likely to drop out (eg, due to perceived ineffectiveness of treatment, or adverse effects). In such scenarios, estimates from complete case analysis (CCA) and multiple imputation (MI) will be biased. We investigate the use of the trimmed means (TM) estimator for the case of univariable missingness in one continuous outcome. The TM estimator operates by setting missing values to the most extreme value, and then "trimming" away equal fractions of both groups, estimating the treatment effect using the remaining data. The TM estimator relies on two assumptions, which we term the "strong MNAR" and "location shift" assumptions. We derive formulae for the TM estimator bias resulting from the violation of these assumptions for normally distributed outcomes. We propose an adjusted TM estimator, which relaxes the location shift assumption and detail how our bias formulae can be used to establish the direction of bias of CCA and TM estimates, to inform sensitivity analyses. The TM approach is illustrated in a sensitivity analysis of the CoBalT RCT of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in 469 individuals with 46 months follow-up. Results were consistent with a beneficial CBT treatment effect, with MI estimates closer to the null and TM estimates further from the null than the CCA estimate. We propose using the TM estimator as a sensitivity analysis for data where extreme outcome value dropout is plausible.

Effective dose 50 method as the minimal clinically important difference: Evidence from depression trials.

OBJECTIVE: Previous research on the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) for depression and anxiety is based on population averages. The present study aimed to identify the MCID across the spectrum of baseline severity. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS: The present analysis used secondary data from 2 randomized controlled trials for depression (n = 1,122) to calibrate the Global Rating of Change with the PHQ-9 and GAD-7. The MCID was defined as a change in scores corresponding to a 50% probability of patients "feeling better", given their baseline severity, referred to as Effective Dose 50 (ED50). RESULTS: MCID estimates depended on baseline severity and ranged from no change for very mild up to 14 points (52%) on the PHQ-9 and up to 10 points (48%) on the GAD-7 for very high severity. The average MCID estimates were 3.7 points (23%) and 3.3 (28%) for the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 respectively. CONCLUSION: The ED50 method generates MCID estimates across the spectrum of baseline severity, offering greater precision but at the cost of greater complexity relative to population average estimates. This has important implications for evaluations of treatments and clinical practice where users can use these results to tailor the MCID to specific populations according to baseline severities.

Sex differences in depressive symptoms and tolerability after treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressants: Secondary analyses of the GENPOD trial.

BACKGROUND: Differences in serotonergic neurotransmission could lead to sex differences in depressive symptoms and tolerability after treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). AIMS: We investigated whether women have greater reductions in depressive symptoms than men after treatment with an SSRI (citalopram) compared with a noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor (reboxetine) control, and after antidepressant treatment irrespective of class. We also investigated tolerability and the influence of menopausal status. METHODS: Secondary analyses of the GENPOD (GENetic and clinical Predictors Of treatment response in Depression) trial. Six hundred and one people with depression were recruited from UK primary care and randomized to citalopram or reboxetine. Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) score at 6 weeks was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included BDI-II score at 12 weeks, and physical symptoms and treatment discontinuation. We calculated main effects and interaction terms using linear and logistic regression models. RESULTS: There was no evidence that women experienced greater reductions in depressive symptoms than men when treated with citalopram compared with reboxetine. We also found no evidence of sex differences at six or 12 weeks (irrespective of antidepressant class): men scored -0.31 (95% confidence interval (CI) -2.23 to 1.62) BDI-II points lower than women at six weeks and -0.44 (95% CI -2.62 to 1.74) points lower at 12 weeks. There was no evidence of sex differences in physical symptoms or treatment discontinuation and no evidence for an influence of menopausal status. CONCLUSION: Citalopram was not more effective in women compared with men and there was no difference in tolerability. Women and men had similar prognosis after SSRI treatment and similar prognosis regardless of antidepressant class. Findings were unaltered by menopausal status.

Variation in recognition of happy and sad facial expressions and self-reported depressive symptom severity: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Cognitive theories suggest people with depression interpret self-referential social information negatively. However, it is unclear whether these biases precede or follow depression. We investigated whether facial expression recognition was associated with depressive symptoms cross-sectionally and longitudinally. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of people who had visited UK primary care in the past year reporting depressive symptoms (n = 509). Depressive symptoms were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) at four time-points, 2 weeks apart. A computerised task assessed happy and sad facial expression recognition at three time-points (n = 505 at time 1). The unbiased hit rate measured ability to recognise emotions accounting for any general tendency to identify the emotion when it was not present. RESULTS: The sample included the full range of depressive symptom severity, with 45% meeting diagnostic criteria for depression. There was no evidence that happy or sad unbiased hit rates were associated with concurrent or subsequent depressive symptoms. There was weak evidence that, for every additional face incorrectly classified as happy, concurrent PHQ-9 scores reduced by 0.05 of a point (95% CI = -0.10 to 0.002, p = 0.06 after adjustment for confounders). This association was strongest for more ambiguous facial expressions (interaction term p<0.001). LIMITATIONS: This was an observational study with relatively short follow-up (6 weeks) and small changes in depressive symptoms and emotion recognition. Only 7% of invited patients consented to participate. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced misclassifications of ambiguous faces as happy could be a state marker of depression, but was not associated with subsequent depressive symptoms. Future research should focus on the interpretation of ambiguous social information.

Is screen time associated with anxiety or depression in young people? Results from a UK birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: There is limited and conflicting evidence for associations between use of screen-based technology and anxiety and depression in young people. We examined associations between screen time measured at 16 years and anxiety and depression at 18. METHODS: Participants (n = 14,665; complete cases n = 1869) were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a UK-based prospective cohort study. We assessed associations between various types of screen time (watching television, using a computer, and texting, all measured via questionnaire at 16y), both on weekdays and at weekends, and anxiety and depression (measured via the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule at 18y). Using ordinal logistic regression, we adjusted for multiple confounders, particularly focussing on activities that might have been replaced by screen time (for example exercising or playing outdoors). RESULTS: More time spent using a computer on weekdays was associated with a small increased risk of anxiety (OR for 1-2 h = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.35; OR for 3+ hours = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.55, both compared to < 1 h, p for linear trend = 0.003). We found a similar association between computer use at weekends and anxiety (OR for 1-2 h = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.46; OR for 3+ hours = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.48, p for linear trend = 0.03). Greater time spent using a computer on weekend days only was associated with a small increased risk in depression (OR for 1-2 h = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.93 to 1.35; OR for 3+ hours = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.65, p for linear trend = 0.003). Adjusting for time spent alone attenuated effects for anxiety but not depression. There was little evidence for associations with texting or watching television. CONCLUSIONS: We found associations between increased screen time, particularly computer use, and a small increased risk of anxiety and depression. Time spent alone was found to attenuate some associations, and further research should explore this.

Mirtazapine added to SSRIs or SNRIs for treatment resistant depression in primary care: phase III randomised placebo controlled trial (MIR).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effectiveness of combining mirtazapine with serotonin-noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor (SNRI) or selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants for treatment resistant depression in primary care. DESIGN: Two parallel group multicentre phase III randomised placebo controlled trial. SETTING: 106 general practices in four UK sites; Bristol, Exeter, Hull, and Keele/North Staffs, August 2013 to October 2015. PARTICIPANTS: 480 adults aged 18 or more years who scored 14 or more on the Beck depression inventory, second revision, fulfilled ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) criteria for depression, and had used an SSRI or SNRI for at least six weeks but were still depressed. 241 were randomised to mirtazapine and 239 to placebo, both given in addition to usual SSRI or SNRI treatment. Participants were stratified by centre and minimised by baseline Beck depression inventory score, sex, and current psychological therapy. They were followed up at 12, 24, and 52 weeks. 431 (89.8%) were included in the (primary) 12 week follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Depressive symptoms at 12 weeks after randomisation, measured using the Beck depression inventory II score as a continuous variable. Secondary outcomes included measures of anxiety, quality of life, and adverse effects at 12, 24, and 52 weeks. RESULTS: Beck depression inventory II scores at 12 weeks were lower in the mirtazapine group after adjustment for baseline scores and minimisation or stratification variables, although the confidence interval included the null (mean (SD) scores at 12 weeks: 18.0 (12.3) in the mirtazapine group, 19.7 (12.4) in the placebo group; adjusted difference between means -1.83 (95% confidence interval -3.92 to 0.27); P=0.09). Adverse effects were more common in the mirtazapine group and were associated with the participants stopping the trial drug. CONCLUSION: This study did not find evidence of a clinically important benefit for mirtazapine in addition to an SSRI or SNRI over placebo in a treatment resistant group of primary care patients with depression. This remains an area of important unmet need where evidence of effective treatment options is limited. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN06653773.

Individuals' Long Term Use of Cognitive Behavioural Skills to Manage their Depression: A Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) aims to teach people skills to help them self-manage their depression. Trial evidence shows that CBT is an effective treatment for depression and individuals may experience benefits long-term. However, there is little research about individuals' continued use of CBT skills once treatment has finished. AIMS: To explore whether individuals who had attended at least 12 sessions of CBT continued to use and value the CBT skills they had learnt during therapy. METHOD: Semi-structured interviews were held with participants from the CoBalT trial who had received CBT, approximately 4 years earlier. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. RESULTS: 20 participants were interviewed. Analysis of the interviews suggested that individuals who viewed CBT as a learning process, at the time of treatment, recalled and used specific skills to manage their depression once treatment had finished. In contrast, individuals who viewed CBT only as an opportunity to talk about their problems did not appear to utilize any of the CBT skills they had been taught and reported struggling to manage their depression once treatment had ended. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest individuals may value and use CBT skills if they engage with CBT as a learning opportunity at the time of treatment. Our findings underline the importance of the educational model in CBT and the need to emphasize this to individuals receiving treatment.

Long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy as an adjunct to pharmacotherapy for treatment-resistant depression in primary care: follow-up of the CoBalT randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for people whose depression has not responded to antidepressants. However, the long-term outcome is unknown. In a long-term follow-up of the CoBalT trial, we examined the clinical and cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy as an adjunct to usual care that included medication over 3-5 years in primary care patients with treatment-resistant depression. METHODS: CoBalT was a randomised controlled trial done across 73 general practices in three UK centres. CoBalT recruited patients aged 18-75 years who had adhered to antidepressants for at least 6 weeks and had substantial depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI-II] score ≥14 and met ICD-10 depression criteria). Participants were randomly assigned using a computer generated code, to receive either usual care or CBT in addition to usual care. Patients eligible for the long-term follow-up were those who had not withdrawn by the 12 month follow-up and had given their consent to being re-contacted. Those willing to participate were asked to return the postal questionnaire to the research team. One postal reminder was sent and non-responders were contacted by telephone to complete a brief questionnaire. Data were also collected from general practitioner notes. Follow-up took place at a variable interval after randomisation (3-5 years). The primary outcome was self-report of depressive symptoms assessed by BDI-II score (range 0-63), analysed by intention to treat. Cost-utility analysis compared health and social care costs with quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). This study is registered with isrctn.com, number ISRCTN38231611. FINDINGS: Between Nov 4, 2008, and Sept 30, 2010, 469 eligible participants were randomised into the CoBalT study. Of these, 248 individuals completed a long-term follow-up questionnaire and provided data for the primary outcome (136 in the intervention group vs 112 in the usual care group). At follow-up (median 45·5 months [IQR 42·5-51·1]), the intervention group had a mean BDI-II score of 19·2 (SD 13·8) compared with a mean BDI-II score of 23·4 (SD 13·2) for the usual care group (repeated measures analysis over the 46 months: difference in means -4·7 [95% CI -6·4 to -3·0, p<0·001]). Follow-up was, on average, 40 months after therapy ended. The average annual cost of trial CBT per participant was £343 (SD 129). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £5374 per QALY gain. This represented a 92% probability of being cost effective at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence QALY threshold of £20 000. INTERPRETATION: CBT as an adjunct to usual care that includes antidepressants is clinically effective and cost effective over the long-term for individuals whose depression has not responded to pharmacotherapy. In view of this robust evidence of long-term effectiveness and the fact that the intervention represented good value-for-money, clinicians should discuss referral for CBT with all those for whom antidepressants are not effective. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment.

Facilitated physical activity as a treatment for depressed adults: randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effectiveness of facilitated physical activity as an adjunctive treatment for adults with depression presenting in primary care. DESIGN: Pragmatic, multicentre, two arm parallel randomised controlled trial. SETTING: General practices in Bristol and Exeter. PARTICIPANTS: 361 adults aged 18-69 who had recently consulted their general practitioner with symptoms of depression. All those randomised had a diagnosis of an episode of depression as assessed by the clinical interview schedule-revised and a Beck depression inventory score of 14 or more. INTERVENTIONS: In addition to usual care, intervention participants were offered up to three face to face sessions and 10 telephone calls with a trained physical activity facilitator over eight months. The intervention was based on theory and aimed to provide individually tailored support and encouragement to engage in physical activity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was self reported symptoms of depression, assessed with the Beck depression inventory at four months post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes included use of antidepressants and physical activity at the four, eight, and 12 month follow-up points, and symptoms of depression at eight and 12 month follow-up. RESULTS: There was no evidence that participants offered the physical activity intervention reported improvement in mood by the four month follow-up point compared with those in the usual care group; adjusted between group difference in mean Beck depression inventory score -0.54 (95% confidence interval -3.06 to 1.99; P=0.68). Similarly, there was no evidence that the intervention group reported a change in mood by the eight and 12 month follow-up points. Nor was there evidence that the intervention reduced antidepressant use compared with usual care (adjusted odds ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 2.06; P=0.44) over the duration of the trial. However, participants allocated to the intervention group reported more physical activity during the follow-up period than those allocated to the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio 2.27, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 3.89; P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of a facilitated physical activity intervention to usual care did not improve depression outcome or reduce use of antidepressants compared with usual care alone. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16900744.

Severity of depression and response to antidepressants: GENPOD randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Antidepressant prescribing is widespread. Nonetheless, response to antidepressants is variable. If it was possible to predict response to medication and thus tailor treatment accordingly, this would not only improve patient outcomes but may also have economic benefits. AIMS: To test the hypothesis that individuals with more severe depression would benefit more from noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors (NARIs) than selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) compared with individuals with less severe depression. METHOD: Individuals recruited from UK primary care who met ICD-10 criteria for a depressive episode and scored 15 or more on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were randomised to either an SSRI (citalopram 20 mg daily) or a NARI (reboxetine 4 mg twice daily). Randomisation was by means of a remote automated telephone system. The main outcome was depressive symptoms measured by the BDI total score 6 weeks after randomisation. ( TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN31345163.) RESULTS: In total, 601 participants were randomised (citalopram: n = 298, reboxetine: n = 303). Ninety-one per cent were followed up at 6 weeks (citalopram: n = 274, reboxetine: n = 272). There was little evidence to support an interaction between treatment and severity of depression (interaction term: 0.02, 95% CI -0.59 to 0.62, P = 0.96). Adjustment for potential confounders (age, gender, employment status, history of depression, number of life events and social support) did not affect the findings (interaction term: 0.06, 95% CI -0.54 to 0.66, P = 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with NARIs does not confer any advantage over SSRI treatment for outcome in those with more severe depressive illness presenting in primary care.

Factors associated with differential response to online cognitive behavioural therapy.

PURPOSE: Patients differ in their response to treatments. There is obvious clinical utility in establishing patient characteristics that are associated with differential treatment responses (i.e., are effect modifiers or moderators of treatment response). Factors that moderate response to cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) remain unclear. This study investigates whether factors prognostic of general depression outcome generally are also moderators of response to online CBT in a sample of depressed patients recruited through U.K. general practices. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial, internet-based psychotherapy for depression. A total of 297 patients referred from 55 U.K. general practices and suffering from depression were randomly allocated to receive either online CBT or waiting list control. Treatment effect was measured by comparing depression score at 4 months between randomization groups. Treatment effect modification was assessed using regression analyses focusing on interactions between treatment effect and putative moderator variables. RESULTS: Pretreatment severity and marital status moderated treatment response. More severe patients, and patients who were separated, widowed, or divorced, benefited most from the intervention. Weak evidence suggested that treatment effectiveness diminished with increasing recent adverse life events. No evidence was found to suggest that educational attainment, age, and history of depression-moderated treatment response. CONCLUSIONS: Secondary analyses of trials comparing two or more treatments allow factors that may moderate treatment response to be distinguished from more general prognostic indicators, although caution is needed in interpreting such exploratory analyses.

Physical activity and depression in adolescents: cross-sectional findings from the ALSPAC cohort.

PURPOSE: Few studies have examined the association between physical activity (PA), measured objectively, and adolescent depressive symptoms. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is an association between objective measures of PA (total PA and time spent in moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA)) and adolescent depressive symptoms. METHODS: Data on 2,951 adolescents participating in ALSPAC were used. Depressive symptoms were measured using the self-report Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (MFQ) (short version). Measures of PA were based on accelerometry. The association between PA and MFQ scores was modelled using ordinal regression. RESULTS: Adolescents who were more physically active (total PA or minutes of MVPA) had a reduced odds of depressive symptoms [OR(adj) total PA (tertiles): medium 0.82 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.97); high 0.69 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.83)]; OR(adj) per 15 min MVPA: 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.98). In a multivariable model including both total PA and the percentage of time spent in MVPA, total PA was associated with depressive symptoms (OR(adj) total PA (tertiles): medium 0.82 (95% CI: 0.70, 0.98); high 0.70 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.85) but the percentage of time spent in MVPA was not independently associated with depressive symptoms [OR(adj) MVPA (tertiles) medium 1.05 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.24), high 0.91 (95% CI: 0.77, 1.09)]. CONCLUSIONS: The total amount of PA undertaken was associated with adolescent depressive symptoms, but the amount of time spent in MVPA, once total PA was accounted for, was not. If confirmed in longitudinal studies and randomised controlled trials, this would have important implications for public health messages.

Physical activity as a treatment for depression: the TREAD randomised trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Depression is one of the most common reasons for consulting a General Practitioner (GP) within the UK. Whilst antidepressants have been shown to be clinically effective, many patients and healthcare professionals would like to access other forms of treatment as an alternative or adjunct to drug therapy for depression. A recent systematic review presented some evidence that physical activity could offer one such option, although further investigation is needed to test its effectiveness within the context of the National Health Service.The aim of this paper is to describe the protocol for a randomised, controlled trial (RCT) designed to evaluate an intervention developed to increase physical activity as a treatment for depression within primary care. METHODS/DESIGN: The TREAD study is a pragmatic, multi-centre, two-arm RCT which targets patients presenting with a new episode of depression. Patients were approached if they were aged 18-69, had recently consulted their GP for depression and, where appropriate, had been taking antidepressants for less than one month. Only those patients with a confirmed diagnosis of a depressive episode as assessed by the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised (CIS-R), a Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) score of at least 14 and informed written consent were included in the study. Eligible patients were individually randomised to one of two treatment groups; usual GP care or usual GP care plus facilitated physical activity. The primary outcome of the trial is clinical symptoms of depression assessed using the BDI four months after randomisation. A number of secondary outcomes are also measured at the 4-, 8- and 12-month follow-up points including quality of life, attitude to and involvement in physical activity and antidepressant use/adherence. Outcomes will be analysed on an intention-to-treat (ITT) basis and will use linear and logistic regression models to compare treatments. DISCUSSION: The results of the trial will provide information about the effectiveness of physical activity as a treatment for depression. Given the current prevalence of depression and its associated economic burden, it is hoped that TREAD will provide a timely contribution to the evidence on treatment options for patients, clinicians and policy-makers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 16900744.

Physical activity and emotional problems amongst adolescents : a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Promotion of physical activity (PA) is at the top of the public health agenda. However, there are few longitudinal studies investigating the relationship between PA and children's mental health. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between self-reported physical activity (PA) and emotional problems 1-year later in a cohort of schoolchildren. METHODS: A total of 1,446 children aged 11-14 years from 39 schools in the North West of England completed a self-report questionnaire in class. Each child reported the total number of sessions of sporting activities (lasting more than 20 min) in which they participated during the previous week, including activities both in school and out of school. This total was averaged for the week in order to determine whether the child was physically active at recommended levels (1 h per day). Childhood emotional problems were measured using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) (self-report) at baseline and 1-year later. Data on potential confounders were also collected by self-report questionnaire at baseline. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, children who, on average, participated in at least 1 h of sporting activity on a daily basis had fewer emotional problems at 1-year follow-up. This attenuated substantially after adjustment for gender (girls were less active but more likely to report emotional problems than boys). After adjustment for additional confounders including emotional problems at baseline, children who met recommended levels for PA had, on average, a score on the emotional problems sub-scale that was 0.29 units lower (-0.29 (95%CI: -0.61, 0.022)) at 1 year follow-up compared to children who did not undertake recommended levels of PA. Children who were physical activity also had higher scores on the hyperactivity sub-scale of the SDQ 1 year later, but there was no evidence to support an association between PA and other behavioural problems. CONCLUSIONS: Children who met recommended levels for PA had fewer emotional problems 1-year later, although the magnitude of this difference was reduced after adjustment for confounders, particularly gender. Future longitudinal studies need to record both PA and emotional problems at more frequent intervals in order to enable us to determine the effect of maintaining a physically active lifestyle on adolescent mental health outcomes.

Socio-economic status in childhood and later alcohol use: a systematic review.

AIM: To conduct a systematic review of longitudinal studies that examined the association between childhood socio-economic status (SES) and alcohol use in later life. METHODS: A systematic search to identify all longitudinal population-based studies that examined the association between childhood SES and later alcohol use. RESULTS: Nineteen relevant articles were identified (eight birth cohorts and 11 papers on school-aged cohorts). There was little consistent evidence to support an association between lower childhood SES and later (mis)use of alcohol. Only a minority of studies included assessment of problem alcohol use, and in only one study was the relationship between SES and alcohol use the main research question. CONCLUSION: We found little robust evidence to support the assumption that childhood disadvantage is associated with later alcohol use/abuse. Given the importance of this issue in terms of policy, the lack of evidence is surprising and emphasizes the need for further research in order to inform future policies and public health messages.

Active exercise, education, and cognitive behavioral therapy for persistent disabling low back pain: a randomized controlled trial.

STUDY DESIGN: A randomized controlled trial. OBJECTIVES: To determine 1) whether, among patients with persistent disabling low back pain (LBP), a group program of exercise and education using a cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) approach, reduces pain and disability over a subsequent 12-month period; 2) the cost-effectiveness of the intervention; and 3) whether a priori preference for type of treatment influences outcome. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: There is evidence that both exercise and CBT delivered in specialist settings is effective in improving LBP. There is a lack of evidence on whether such interventions, delivered by trained individuals in primary care, result in improved outcomes. METHODS: The study was conducted in nine family medical practices in East Cheshire, UK. Patients 18 to 65 years of age, consulting with LBP, were recruited; those still reporting LBP 3 months after the initial consultation were randomized between the two trial arms. The intervention arm received a program of eight 2-hour group exercise session over 6 weeks comprising active exercise and education delivered by physiotherapists using a CBT approach. Both arms received an educational booklet and audio-cassette. The primary outcome measures were pain (0-100 Visual Analogue Scale) and disability (Roland and Morris Disability Scale; score 0-24). RESULTS: A total of 196 subjects (84%) completed follow-up 12 months after the completion of the intervention program. The intervention showed only a small and nonsignificant effect at reducing pain (-3.6 mm; 95% confidence interval, -8.5, 1.2 mm) and disability (-0.6 score; 95% confidence interval, -1.6, 0.4). The cost of the intervention was low with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of pound5000 (U.S. $8650) per quality adjusted life year. In addition, patients allocated to the intervention that had expressed a preference for it had clinically important reductions in pain and disability. CONCLUSIONS: This intervention program produces only modest effects in reducing LBP and disability over a 1-year period. The observation that patient preference for treatment influences outcome warrants further investigation.

Physical activity and common mental disorder: results from the Caerphilly study.

The authors examined associations between leisure-time and occupational physical activity and common mental disorder (CMD), defined as anxiety and depression, using data from a cohort of middle-aged men in Caerphilly, South Wales, United Kingdom, who were followed for 5 years (1989-1993) and 10 years (1993-1997). CMD was measured using the General Health Questionnaire. Total leisure-time activity and percentage of time spent in heavy-intensity activity were estimated from self-reports (Minnesota Leisure Time Physical Activity Questionnaire). Men were classified into four classes of occupational activity. Among 1,158 men with complete data, those who participated in any heavy-intensity leisure-time activity had reduced odds of CMD 5 years later (below median vs. none: adjusted odds ratio (OR(adj)) = 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40, 0.93); median or above vs. none: OR(adj) = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.83). Analyses using multiple imputation to deal with missing data found weaker evidence for an association (OR(adj) = 0.79 (95% CI: 0.54, 1.15) and OR(adj) = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.49, 1.09), respectively). There was little evidence that men in the most physically demanding jobs had reduced odds of CMD after 5 years, and there was no association between physical activity and CMD 10 years later. Among these men, heavy-intensity leisure-time physical activity was associated with a small reduction in CMD over 5 years.

Self-reported psychotic symptoms in the general population: results from the longitudinal study of the British National Psychiatric Morbidity Survey.

BACKGROUND: Scarce longitudinal data exist on the occurrence of psychotic symptoms in the general population. AIMS: To estimate the incidence of, and risk factors for, self-reported psychotic symptoms in Great Britain. METHOD: Data from the 18-month follow-up of a national survey were used. Incident cases were those who endorsed one or more items on the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire at follow-up, but not at baseline. The association between factors recorded at baseline and incident self-reported symptoms was examined. RESULTS: At follow-up, 4.4% of the general population reported incident psychotic symptoms. Six factors were independently associated with incident symptoms: living in a rural area; having a small primary support group; more adverse life events; smoking tobacco; neurotic symptoms; and engaging in a harmful pattern of drinking. CONCLUSIONS: A small but not insignificant percentage of the population of Great Britain reported incident psychotic symptoms over 18 months. The risk factors for psychotic symptoms showed some similarities with risk factors for schizophrenia, but there were also some striking differences. The relationship between such risk factors and the factors that perpetuate psychotic symptoms remains to be ascertained.

Early parental and child predictors of recurrent abdominal pain at school age: results of a large population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether parental psychological and physical factors and child factors measured in the first year of life were associated with recurrent abdominal pain (RAP) in children at age 6(3/4) years. METHOD: A longitudinal cohort study (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children), followed 8,272 children from pregnancy to age 6(3/4) years. Parental reports of child and parent functioning were gathered. Associations between parental and child functioning assessed at 6 to 8 months postpartum, and RAP measured at age 6(3/4) years were investigated. RESULTS: The prevalence of RAP in this sample was 11.8%. Both maternal anxiety (adjusted odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.24-1.89) and paternal anxiety (adjusted odds ratio = 1.38; 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.71) in the first year of a child's life were associated with later childhood RAP. Parent reports of child temperament features such as irregular feeding and sleeping were also associated with later RAP. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first evidence from a prospective study that anxiety in both mothers and fathers and child temperament features predate the occurrence of RAP in children. These findings highlight the potential importance of addressing parental anxiety in families in which children present with RAP, although some caution should be exercised in their interpretation because of possible reporting bias.

Predicting persistent disabling low back pain in general practice: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients may adopt active and/or passive coping strategies in response to pain. However, it is not known whether these strategies may also precede the onset of chronic symptoms and, if so, whether they are independent predictors of prognosis. AIM: To examine, in patients with low back pain in general practice, the prognostic value of active and passive coping styles, in the context of baseline levels of pain, disability and pain duration. DESIGN OF STUDY: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Nine general practices in north west England. METHOD: Patients consulting their GP with a new episode of low back pain were recruited to the study. Information on coping styles, pain severity, disability, duration, and a brief history of other chronic pain symptoms was recorded using a self-completion postal questionnaire. Participants were then sent a follow-up questionnaire, 3 months after their initial consultation, to assess the occurrence of low back pain. The primary outcome was persistent disabling low back pain, that is, low back pain at 3-month follow-up self-rated as >or=20 mm on a 100 mm visual analogue scale, and >or=5 on the Roland and Morris Disability Questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 974 patients took part in the baseline survey, of whom 922 (95%) completed a follow-up questionnaire; 363 individuals (39%) reported persistent disabling pain at follow-up. Persons who reported high levels of passive coping experienced a threefold increase in the risk of persistent disabling low back pain (relative risk [RR] = 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.3 to 4.0). In contrast, active coping was associated with neither an increase nor a decrease in the risk of a poor prognosis. After adjusting for baseline pain severity, disability, and other measures of pain and pain history, persons who reported a high passive coping score were still at 50% increased risk of a poor outcome (RR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.0). CONCLUSION: Patients who report passive coping strategies experience a significant increase in the risk of persistent symptoms. Further, this risk persists after controlling for initial pain severity and disability. The identification of this low back pain subgroup may help target future treatments to those at greatest risk of a poor outcome.