Identification of cost-effective biosecurity measures to reduce Salmonella along the pork production chain.

The continued occurrence of salmonellosis cases in Europe attributed to the consumption of pork products highlights the importance of identifying cost-effective interventions. Certain biosecurity measures (BSMs) may be effective in reducing the prevalence of specific pathogens along the pork production chain and their presence in food products. The objective of this study was to identify pathogen-specific, cost-effective BSMs to reduce Salmonella at different stages of the pork production chain in two European countries - Austria (AT) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this purpose, a cost-benefit analysis was conducted based on the epidemiological output of an established quantitative microbiological risk assessment that simulated the implementation effect of the BSMs based on their risk ratios. For each of the BSMs, the associated costs and benefits were assessed individually and country-specifically. For both AT and UK, nine different BSMs were evaluated assuming a countrywide implementation rate of 100%. The results showed that four BSMs were cost-effective (benefit-cost ratio > 1) for AT and five for the UK. The uncertainty regarding the cost-effectiveness of the BSMs resulted from the variability of individual risk ratios, and the variability of benefits associated with the implementation of the BSMs. The low number of cost-effective BSMs highlights the need for holistic risk-based models and economic assessments. To increase the willingness to implement BSMs and maximize the benefits for stakeholders, who carry the majority of the implementation costs, epidemiological assessments of BSM effectiveness should consider the impact on several relevant pathogens simultaneously.

Protecting infants against RSV disease: an impact and cost-effectiveness comparison of long-acting monoclonal antibodies and maternal vaccination.

Background: Two new products for preventing Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in young children have been licensed: a single-dose long-acting monoclonal antibody (la-mAB) and a maternal vaccine (MV). To facilitate the selection of new RSV intervention programmes for large-scale implementation, this study provides an assessment to compare the costs of potential programmes with the health benefits accrued. Methods: Using an existing dynamic transmission model, we compared maternal vaccination to la-mAB therapy against RSV in England and Wales by calculating the impact and cost-effectiveness. We calibrated a statistical model to the efficacy trial data to accurately capture their immune waning and estimated the impact of seasonal and year-round programmes for la-mAB and MV programmes. Using these impact estimates, we identified the most cost-effective programme across pricing and delivery cost assumptions. Findings: For infants under six months old in England and Wales, a year-round MV programme with 60% coverage would avert 32% (95% CrI 22-41%) of RSV hospital admissions and a year-round la-mAB programme with 90% coverage would avert 57% (95% CrI 41-69%). The MV programme has additional health benefits for pregnant women, which account for 20% of the population-level health burden averted. A seasonal la-mAB programme could be cost-effective for up to £84 for purchasing and administration (CCPA) and a seasonal MV could be cost-effective for up to £80 CCPA. Interpretation: This modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis has shown that both the long-acting monoclonal antibodies and the maternal vaccine could substantially reduce the burden of RSV disease in the infant population. Our analysis has informed JCVI's recommendations for an RSV immunisation programme to protect newborns and infants. Funding: National Institute for Health Research.

Derivation of field theory for the classical dimer model using bosonization.

We derive a field theory for the two-dimensional classical dimer model by applying bosonization to Lieb's (fermionic) transfer-matrix solution. Our constructive approach gives results that are consistent with the well-known height theory, previously justified based on symmetry considerations, but also fixes coefficients appearing in the effective theory and the relationship between microscopic observables and operators in the field theory. In addition, we show how interactions can be included in the field theory perturbatively, treating the case of the double dimer model with interactions within and between the two replicas. Using a renormalization-group analysis, we determine the shape of the phase boundary near the noninteracting point, in agreement with results of Monte Carlo simulations.

Topological sectors, dimer correlations, and monomers from the transfer-matrix solution of the dimer model.

We solve the classical square-lattice dimer model with periodic boundaries and in the presence of a field t that couples to the (vector) flux, by diagonalizing a modified version of Lieb's transfer matrix. After deriving the torus partition function in the thermodynamic limit, we show how the configuration space divides into topological sectors corresponding to distinct values of the flux. Additionally, we demonstrate in general that expectation values are t independent at leading order, and obtain explicit expressions for dimer occupation numbers, dimer-dimer correlation functions, and the monomer distribution function. The last of these is expressed as a Toeplitz determinant, whose asymptotic behavior for large monomer separation is tractable using the Fisher-Hartwig conjecture. Our results reproduce those previously obtained using Pfaffian techniques.