Computerization, Obsolescence and the Length of Working Life.

This paper analyzes how computerization affected the labor market outcomes of older workers between 1984 and 2017. Using the computerization supplements of the Current Population Survey (CPS) we show that different occupations were computerized at different times, older workers tended to start using computers with a delay compared to younger workers, but computer use within occupations converged to the same levels across age groups eventually. That is, there was a temporary knowledge gap between younger and older workers in most occupations. We estimate how this knowledge gap affected older workers' labor market outcomes using data from the CPS and the Health and Retirement Study. Our models control for occupation and time fixed effects and in some models; we also control for full occupation-time interactions and use middle aged (age 40-49) workers as the control group. We find strong and robust negative effects of the knowledge gap on wages, and a large, temporary increase in transitions from work to non-participation, consistent with a model of creative destruction in which the computerization of jobs made older workers' skills obsolete in birth cohorts that experienced computerization relatively late in their careers. We find larger effects on females and on middle-skilled workers.

What are the later life contributions to reserve, resilience, and compensation?

Many studies have shown that early-life experiences can contribute to later life cognitive reserve and resilience. However, there is evidence to suggest that later life experiences and lifestyle choices can also play a vital role in the brain's ability to respond to and compensate for neural insults associated with aging. Engaging in a diversity of behaviorally, socially, and cognitively rich activities may forge new neural pathways that can perhaps provide greater flexibility in confronting the challenges associated with accumulating brain pathology. Studies of cognitively normal individuals with pathology and of individuals who have aged exceptionally well may provide insights that are generalizable to the overall elderly population.

A Comparison of Subjective and Objective Job Demands and Fit with Personal Resources as Predictors of Retirement Timing in a National U.S. Sample.

Population aging and attendant pressures on public budgets have spurred considerable interest in understanding factors that influence retirement timing. A range of sociodemographic and economic characteristics predict both earlier and later retirement. Less is known about the role of job characteristics on the work choices of older workers. Researchers are increasingly using the subjective ratings of job characteristics available in the Health and Retirement Study in conjunction with more objective measures of job characteristics from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database. Employing a theoretically-informed model of job demands-personal resources fit, we constructed mismatch measures between resources and job demands (both subjectively and objectively assessed) in physical, emotional, and cognitive domains. When we matched comparable measures across the two data sources in the domains of physical, emotional, and cognitive job demands, we found that both sources of information held predictive power in relation to retirement timing. Physical and emotional but not cognitive mismatch were associated with earlier retirement. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of these findings and directions for future research.

Is it all worth it? The experiences of new PhDs on the job market, 2007-10.

This paper describes the job market experiences of new PhD economists, 2007-10. Using information from PhD programs' job candidate websites and original surveys, the authors present information about job candidates' characteristics, preferences and expectations; how job candidates fared at each stage of the market; and predictors of outcomes at each stage. Some information presented in this paper updates findings of prior studies. However, design features of the data used in this paper may result in more generalizable findings. This paper is unique in comparing pre-market expectations and preferences with post-market outcomes on the new PhD job market. It shows that outcomes tend to align with pre-market preferences, and candidates' expectations are somewhat predictive of their outcomes. Several analyses also shed light on sub-group differences.

Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data.

Based on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the modal response hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0%, 50%, or 100% to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010. We show that the MRH model performs better than typically used models in the literature of subjective probabilities. Our model gives more accurate estimates of low probability events and it is able to predict the unusually high fraction of focal 0%, 50%, and 100% answers observed in many data sets on subjective probabilities. We show that subjects place too much weight on parents' age at death when forming expectations about their own longevity, whereas other covariates such as demographics, cognition, personality, subjective health, and health behavior are under weighted. We also find that less educated people, smokers, and women have less certain beliefs, and recent health shocks increase uncertainty about survival, too.

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

Mental Retirement.

Some studies suggest that people can maintain their cognitive abilities through "mental exercise." This has not been unequivocally proven. Retirement is associated with a large change in a person's daily routine and environment. In this paper, we propose two mechanisms how retirement may lead to cognitive decline. For many people retirement leads to a less stimulating daily environment. In addition, the prospect of retirement reduces the incentive to engage in mentally stimulating activities on the job. We investigate the effect of retirement on cognition empirically using cross-nationally comparable surveys of older persons in the United States, England, and 11 European countries in 2004. We find that early retirement has a significant negative impact on the cognitive ability of people in their early 60s that is both quantitatively important and causal. Identification is achieved using national pension policies as instruments for endogenous retirement.

Prevalence of cognitive impairment without dementia in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment without dementia is associated with increased risk for disability, increased health care costs, and progression to dementia. There are no population-based prevalence estimates of this condition in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment without dementia in the United States and determine longitudinal cognitive and mortality outcomes. DESIGN: Longitudinal study from July 2001 to March 2005. SETTING: In-home assessment for cognitive impairment. PARTICIPANTS: Participants in ADAMS (Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study) who were age 71 years or older drawn from the nationally representative HRS (Health and Retirement Study). Of 1770 selected individuals, 856 completed initial assessment, and of 241 selected individuals, 180 completed 16- to 18-month follow-up assessment. MEASUREMENTS: Assessments, including neuropsychological testing, neurologic examination, and clinical and medical history, were used to assign a diagnosis of normal cognition, cognitive impairment without dementia, or dementia. National prevalence rates were estimated by using a population-weighted sample. RESULTS: In 2002, an estimated 5.4 million people (22.2%) in the United States age 71 years or older had cognitive impairment without dementia. Prominent subtypes included prodromal Alzheimer disease (8.2%) and cerebrovascular disease (5.7%). Among participants who completed follow-up assessments, 11.7% with cognitive impairment without dementia progressed to dementia annually, whereas those with subtypes of prodromal Alzheimer disease and stroke progressed at annual rates of 17% to 20%. The annual death rate was 8% among those with cognitive impairment without dementia and almost 15% among those with cognitive impairment due to medical conditions. LIMITATIONS: Only 56% of the nondeceased target sample completed the initial assessment. Population sampling weights were derived to adjust for at least some of the potential bias due to nonresponse and attrition. CONCLUSION: Cognitive impairment without dementia is more prevalent in the United States than dementia, and its subtypes vary in prevalence and outcomes.

The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study: study design and methods.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the design and methods of the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS), a new national study that will provide data on the antecedents, prevalence, outcomes, and costs of dementia and "cognitive impairment, not demented" (CIND) using a unique study design based on the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We also illustrate potential uses of the ADAMS data and provide information to interested researchers on obtaining ADAMS and HRS data. METHODS: The ADAMS is the first population-based study of dementia in the United States to include subjects from all regions of the country, while at the same time using a single standardized diagnostic protocol in a community-based sample. A sample of 856 individuals age 70 or older who were participants in the ongoing HRS received an extensive in-home clinical and neuropsychological assessment to determine a diagnosis of normal, CIND, or dementia. Within the CIND and dementia categories, subcategories (e.g. Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia) were assigned to denote the etiology of cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: Linking the ADAMS dementia clinical assessment data to the wealth of available longitudinal HRS data on health, health care utilization, informal care, and economic resources and behavior, will provide a unique opportunity to study the onset of CIND and dementia in a nationally representative population-based sample, as well as the risk factors, prevalence, outcomes, and costs of CIND and dementia.

Out-of-pocket health care expenditures among older Americans with dementia.

The number of older individuals with dementia will likely increase significantly in the next decades, but there is currently limited information regarding the out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPE) for medical care made by cognitively impaired individuals and their families. We used data from the 1993 and 1995 Asset and Health Dynamics Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of older Americans, to determine the OOPE for individuals with and without dementia. Dementia was identified in 1993 using a modified version of the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status for self-respondents, and proxy assessment of memory and judgment for proxy respondents. In 1995, respondents reported OOPE over the prior 2 years for: 1) hospital and nursing home stays, 2) outpatient services, 3) home care, and 4) prescription medications. The adjusted mean annual OOPE was 1,350 US dollars for those without dementia, 2,150 US dollars for those with mild/moderate dementia, and 3,010 US dollars for those with severe dementia (p < 0.01). Expenditures for hospital/nursing home care (1,770 per year US dollars) and prescription medications (800 per year US dollars) were the largest OOPE components for those with severe dementia. We conclude that dementia is independently associated with significantly higher OOPE for medical care compared with those with normal cognitive function. Severe dementia is associated with a doubling of OOPE, mainly due to higher payments for long-term care. Given that the number of older Americans with dementia will likely increase significantly in the coming decades, changes in public funding aimed at reducing OOPE for both long-term care and prescription medications would have considerable impact on individuals with dementia and their families.

Informal caregiving for diabetes and diabetic complications among elderly americans.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known regarding the amount of time spent by unpaid caregivers providing help to elderly individuals for disabilities associated with diabetes mellitus (DM). We sought to obtain nationally representative estimates of the time, and associated cost, of informal caregiving provided to elderly individuals with diabetes, and to determine the complications of DM that contribute most significantly to the subsequent need for informal care. METHODS: We estimated multivariable regression models using data from the 1993 Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old Study, a nationally representative survey of people aged 70 or older (N = 7,443), to determine the weekly hours of informal caregiving and imputed cost of caregiver time for community-dwelling elderly individuals with and without a diagnosis of DM. RESULTS: Those without DM received an average of 6.1 hr per week of informal care, those with DM taking no medications received 10.5 hr, those with DM taking oral medications received 10.1 hr, and those with DM taking insulin received 14.4 hr of care (p <.01). Disabilities related to heart disease, stroke, and visual impairment were important predictors of diabetes-related informal care. The total cost of informal caregiving for elderly individuals with diabetes in the United States was between $3 and $6 billion per year, similar to previous estimates of the annual paid long-term care costs attributable to DM. DISCUSSION: Diabetes imposes a substantial burden on elderly individuals, their families, and society, both through increased rates of disability and the significant time that informal caregivers must spend helping address the associated functional limitations. Future evaluations of the costs of diabetes, and the cost-effectiveness of diabetes interventions, should consider the significant informal caregiving costs associated with the disease.