High Variability of Body Mass Index Is Independently Associated With Incident Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a serious condition with increasing prevalence, high morbidity, and increased mortality. Obesity is an established risk factor for HF. Fluctuation in body mass index (BMI) has shown a higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between BMI variability and incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the UK Biobank, we established a prospective cohort after excluding participants with prevalent HF or cancer at enrollment. A total of 99 368 White participants with ≥3 BMI measures during >2 years preceding enrollment were included, with a median follow-up of 12.5 years. The within-participant variability of BMI was evaluated using standardized SD and coefficient of variation. The association of BMI variability with incident HF was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk model, adjusting for confounding factors and participant-specific rate of BMI change. Higher BMI variability measured in both SD and coefficient of variation was significantly associated with higher risk in HF incidence (SD: hazard ratio [HR], 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.08], P<0.0001; coefficient of variation: HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10], P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal health records capture BMI fluctuation, which independently predicts HF incidence.

Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk in 109,954 Veterans With Adult-Onset Diabetes: The Million Veteran Program (MVP).

OBJECTIVE: To characterize high type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk in a population where type 2 diabetes (T2D) predominates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Characteristics typically associated with T1D were assessed in 109,594 Million Veteran Program participants with adult-onset diabetes, 2011-2021, who had T1D genetic risk scores (GRS) defined as low (0 to <45%), medium (45 to <90%), high (90 to <95%), or highest (≥95%). RESULTS: T1D characteristics increased progressively with higher genetic risk (P < 0.001 for trend). A GRS ≥90% was more common with diabetes diagnoses before age 40 years, but 95% of those participants were diagnosed at age ≥40 years, and their characteristics resembled those of individuals with T2D in mean age (64.3 years) and BMI (32.3 kg/m2). Compared with the low-risk group, the highest-risk group was more likely to have diabetic ketoacidosis (low GRS 0.9% vs. highest GRS 3.7%), hypoglycemia prompting emergency visits (3.7% vs. 5.8%), outpatient plasma glucose <50 mg/dL (7.5% vs. 13.4%), a shorter median time to start insulin (3.5 vs. 1.4 years), use of a T1D diagnostic code (16.3% vs. 28.1%), low C-peptide levels if tested (1.8% vs. 32.4%), and glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (6.9% vs. 45.2%), all P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics associated with T1D were increased with higher genetic risk, and especially with the top 10% of risk. However, the age and BMI of those participants resemble those of people with T2D, and a substantial proportion did not have diagnostic testing or use of T1D diagnostic codes. T1D genetic screening could be used to aid identification of adult-onset T1D in settings in which T2D predominates.

Lipid levels and risk of acute pancreatitis using bidirectional Mendelian randomization.

Previous studies found lipid levels, especially triglycerides (TG), are associated with acute pancreatitis, but their causalities and bi-directions were not fully examined. We determined whether abnormal levels of TG, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are precursors and/or consequences of acute pancreatitis using bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with two non-overlapping genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics for lipid levels and acute pancreatitis. We found phenotypic associations that both higher TG levels and lower HDL-C levels contributed to increased risk of acute pancreatitis. Our GWAS meta-analysis of acute pancreatitis identified seven independent signals. Genetically predicted TG was positively associated with acute pancreatitis when using the variants specifically associated with TG using univariable MR [Odds ratio (OR), 95% CI 2.02, 1.22-3.31], but the reversed direction from acute pancreatitis to TG was not observed (mean difference = 0.003, SE = 0.002, P-value = 0.138). However, a bidirectional relationship of HDL-C and acute pancreatitis was observed: A 1-SD increment of genetically predicted HDL-C was associated with lower risk of acute pancreatitis (OR, 95% CI 0.84, 0.76-0.92) and genetically predisposed individuals with acute pancreatitis have, on average, 0.005 SD lower HDL-C (mean difference = - 0.005, SE = 0.002, P-value = 0.004). Our MR analysis confirms the evidence of TG as a risk factor of acute pancreatitis but not a consequence. A potential bidirectional relationship of HDL-C and acute pancreatitis occurs and raises the prospect of HDL-C modulation in the acute pancreatitis prevention and treatment.

Locomotor-cognitive dual-tasking in children with developmental coordination disorder.

Introduction: Children with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) demonstrate deficits in predictive motor control and aspects of cognitive control compared with their typically developing (TD) peers. Adjustment to dynamic environments depends on both aspects of control and the deficits for children with DCD may constrain their ability to perform daily actions that involve dual-tasking. Under the assumption that motor-cognitive integration is compromised in children with DCD, we examined proportional dual-task costs using a novel locomotor-cognitive dual-task paradigm that enlisted augmented reality. We expect proportional dual-task performance costs to be greater for children with DCD compared to their TD peers. Methods: Participants were 34 children aged 6-12 years (16 TD, 18 DCD) who walked along a straight 12 m path under single- and dual-task conditions, the cognitive task being visual discrimination under simple or complex stimulus conditions presented via augmented reality. Dual-task performance was measured in two ways: first, proportional dual-task costs (pDTC) were computed for cognitive and gait outcomes and, second, within-trial costs (p-WTC) were measured as the difference on gait outcomes between pre- and post-stimulus presentation. Results: On measures of pDTC, TD children increased their double-limb support time when walking in response to a dual-task, while the children with DCD increased their locomotor velocity. On p-WTC, both groups increased their gait variability (step length and step width) when walking in response to a dual-task, of which the TD group had a larger proportional change than the DCD group. Greater pDTCs on motor rather than cognitive outcomes were consistent across groups and method of dual-task performance measurement. Discussion: Contrary to predictions, our results failed to support dramatic differences in locomotor-cognitive dual-task performance between children with DCD and TD, with both groups tending to priorities the cognitive over the motor task. Inclusion of a within-trial calculation of dual-task interference revealed an expectancy effect for both groups in relation to an impending visual stimulus. It is recommended that dual-task paradigms in the future continue to use augmented reality to present the cognitive task and consider motor tasks of sufficient complexity to probe the limits of performance in children with DCD.

Long-Term Body Mass Index Variability and Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes.

Importance: Body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is a commonly used estimate of obesity, which is a complex trait affected by genetic and lifestyle factors. Marked weight gain and loss could be associated with adverse biological processes. Objective: To evaluate the association between BMI variability and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in 2 distinct cohorts. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP) between 2011 and 2018 and participants in the UK Biobank (UKB) enrolled between 2006 and 2010. Participants were followed up for a median of 3.8 (5th-95th percentile, 3.5) years. Participants with baseline CVD or cancer were excluded. Data were analyzed from September 2022 and September 2023. Exposure: BMI variability was calculated by the retrospective SD and coefficient of variation (CV) using multiple clinical BMI measurements up to the baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was incident composite CVD events (incident nonfatal myocardial infarction, acute ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death), assessed using Cox proportional hazards modeling after adjustment for CVD risk factors, including age, sex, mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking status, diabetes status, and statin use. Secondary analysis assessed whether associations were dependent on the polygenic score of BMI. Results: Among 92 363 US veterans in the MVP cohort (81 675 [88%] male; mean [SD] age, 56.7 [14.1] years), there were 9695 Hispanic participants, 22 488 non-Hispanic Black participants, and 60 180 non-Hispanic White participants. A total of 4811 composite CVD events were observed from 2011 to 2018. The CV of BMI was associated with 16% higher risk for composite CVD across all groups (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.19). These associations were unchanged among subgroups and after adjustment for the polygenic score of BMI. The UKB cohort included 65 047 individuals (mean [SD] age, 57.30 (7.77) years; 38 065 [59%] female) and had 6934 composite CVD events. Each 1-SD increase in BMI variability in the UKB cohort was associated with 8% increased risk of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04-1.11). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that among US veterans, higher BMI variability was a significant risk marker associated with adverse cardiovascular events independent of mean BMI across major racial and ethnic groups. Results were consistent in the UKB for the cardiovascular death end point. Further studies should investigate the phenotype of high BMI variability.

Novel Polygenic Risk Score and Established Clinical Risk Factors for Risk Estimation of Aortic Stenosis.

Importance: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have proven to be as strong as or stronger than established clinical risk factors for many cardiovascular phenotypes. Whether this is true for aortic stenosis remains unknown. Objective: To develop a novel aortic stenosis PRS and compare its aortic stenosis risk estimation to established clinical risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP; 2011-2020), UK Biobank (2006-2010), and 6 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials, including DECLARE-TIMI 58 (2013-2018), FOURIER (TIMI 59; 2013-2017), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (2010-2014), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (2010-2013), SOLID-TIMI 52 (2009-2014), and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (2008-2013), which were a mix of population-based and randomized clinical trials. Individuals from UK Biobank and the MVP meeting a previously validated case/control definition for aortic stenosis were included. All individuals from TIMI trials were included unless they had a documented preexisting aortic valve replacement. Analysis took place from January 2022 to December 2023. Exposures: PRS for aortic stenosis (developed using data from MVP and validated in UK Biobank) and other previously validated cardiovascular PRSs, defined either as a continuous variable or as low (bottom 20%), intermediate, and high (top 20%), and clinical risk factors. Main Outcomes: Aortic stenosis (defined using International Classification of Diseases or Current Procedural Terminology codes in UK Biobank and MVP or safety event data in the TIMI trials). Results: The median (IQR) age in MVP was 67 (57-73) years, and 135 140 of 147 104 participants (92%) were male. The median (IQR) age in the TIMI trials was 66 (54-78) years, and 45 524 of 59 866 participants (71%) were male. The best aortic stenosis PRS incorporated 5 170 041 single-nucleotide variants and was associated with aortic stenosis in both the MVP testing sample (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.37-1.45 per 1 SD PRS; P = 4.6 × 10-116) and TIMI trials (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.62 per 1 SD PRS; P = 3.2 × 10-9). Among genetic and clinical risk factors, the aortic stenosis PRS performed comparably to most risk factors besides age, and within a given age range, the combination of clinical and genetic risk factors was additive, providing a 3- to 4-fold increased gradient of risk of aortic stenosis. However, the addition of the aortic stenosis PRS to a model including clinical risk factors only improved risk discrimination of aortic stenosis by 0.01 to 0.02 (C index in MVP: 0.78 with clinical risk factors, 0.79 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS; C index in TIMI: 0.71 with clinical risk factors, 0.73 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS). Conclusions: This study developed and validated 1 of the first aortic stenosis PRSs. While aortic stenosis genetic risk was independent from clinical risk factors and performed comparably to all other risk factors besides age, genetic risk resulted in only a small improvement in overall aortic stenosis risk discrimination beyond age and clinical risk factors. This work sets the stage for further development of an aortic stenosis PRS.

Awareness about developmental coordination disorder.

The present paper is designed to promote awareness of DCD outside the academic world. With a prevalence of 5-6% it is one of the most common disorders of child development. It is therefore surprising that so little is known about it among professionals in child healthcare and education. Parents have expressed frustration about this lack of awareness, including the general public. The general aim of this paper was to describe those critical aspects of DCD that will promote awareness.

Protein identification for stroke progression via Mendelian Randomization in Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank.

Background: Individuals who have experienced a stroke, or transient ischemic attack, face a heightened risk of future cardiovascular events. Identification of genetic and molecular risk factors for subsequent cardiovascular outcomes may identify effective therapeutic targets to improve prognosis after an incident stroke. Methods: We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (Ncases=51,929, Ncntrl=39,980) and subsequent arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) Ncases=45,120, Ncntrl=46,789) after first incident stroke within the Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank. We then used genetic variants associated with proteins (pQTLs) to determine the effect of 1,463 plasma protein abundances on subsequent MACE using Mendelian randomization (MR). Results: Two variants were significantly associated with subsequent cardiovascular events: rs76472767 (OR=0.75, 95% CI = 0.64-0.85, p= 3.69×10-08) with subsequent AIS and rs13294166 (OR=1.52, 95% CI = 1.37-1.67, p=3.77×10-08) with subsequent MACE. Using MR, we identified 2 proteins with an effect on subsequent MACE after a stroke: CCL27 (effect OR= 0.77, 95% CI = 0.66-0.88, adj. p=0.05), and TNFRSF14 (effect OR=1.42, 95% CI = 1.24-1.60, adj. p=0.006). These proteins are not associated with incident AIS and are implicated to have a role in inflammation. Conclusions: We found evidence that two proteins with little effect on incident stroke appear to influence subsequent MACE after incident AIS. These associations suggest that inflammation is a contributing factor to subsequent MACE outcomes after incident AIS and highlights potential novel targets.

Incidence and prognostic significance of newly-diagnosed atrial fibrillation among older U.S. veterans hospitalized with COVID-19.

Most prior studies on the prognostic significance of newly-diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) in COVID-19 did not differentiate newly-diagnosed AF from pre-existing AF. To determine the association between newly-diagnosed AF and in-hospital and 30-day mortality among regular users of Veterans Health Administration using data linked to Medicare. We identified Veterans aged ≥ 65 years who were hospitalized for ≥ 24 h with COVID-19 from 06/01/2020 to 1/31/2022 and had ≥ 2 primary care visits within 24 months prior to the index hospitalization. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate adjusted risks, risk differences (RD), and odds ratios (OR) for the association between newly-diagnosed AF and the mortality outcomes adjusting for patient demographics, baseline comorbidities, and presence of acute organ dysfunction on admission. Of 23,299 patients in the study cohort, 5.3% had newly-diagnosed AF, and 29.2% had pre-existing AF. In newly-diagnosed AF adjusted in-hospital and 30-day mortality were 16.5% and 22.7%, respectively. Newly-diagnosed AF was associated with increased mortality compared to pre-existing AF (in-hospital: OR 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-2.37; RD 7.58%, 95% CI 5.54-9.62) (30-day: OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.60-2.16; RD 9.04%, 95% CI 6.61-11.5) or no AF (in-hospital: OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.93-2.60; RD 8.40%, 95% CI 6.44-10.4) (30-day: 2.07, 95% CI 1.80-2.37; RD 10.2%, 95% CI 7.89-12.6). There was a smaller association between pre-existing AF and the mortality outcomes. Newly-diagnosed AF is an important prognostic marker for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Whether prevention or treatment of AF improves clinical outcomes in these patients remains unknown.

Red Meat Intake and the Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Prospective Cohort Study in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: Red meat consumption was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in prospective cohort studies and a profile of biomarkers favoring high CVD risk in short-term controlled trials. However, several recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses concluded with no or weak evidence for limiting red meat intake. OBJECTIVES: To prospectively examine the associations between red meat intake and incident CVD in an ongoing cohort study with diverse socioeconomic and racial or ethnic backgrounds. METHODS: Our study included 148,506 participants [17,804 female (12.0%)] who were free of cancer, diabetes, and CVD at baseline from the Million Veteran Program. A food frequency questionnaire measured red meat intakes at baseline. Nonfatal myocardial infarction and acute ischemic stroke were identified through a high-throughput phenotyping algorithm, and fatal CVD events were identified by searching the National Death Index. RESULTS: Comparing the extreme categories of intake, the multivariate-adjusted relative risks of CVD was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.38; P-trend < 0.0001) for total red meat, 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36; P-trend = 0.01) for unprocessed red meat, and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.60; P-trend = 0.003) for processed red meat. We observed a more pronounced positive association between red meat intake and CVD in African American participants than in White participants (P-interaction = 0.01). Replacing 0.5 servings/d of red meat with 0.5 servings/d of nuts, whole grains, and skimmed milk was associated with 14% (RR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.90), 7% (RR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.96), and 4% (RR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94, 0.99) lower risks of CVD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Red meat consumption is associated with an increased risk of CVD. Our findings support lowering red meat intake and replacing red meat with plant-based protein sources or low-fat dairy foods as a key dietary recommendation for the prevention of CVD.

Impact of 8 lifestyle factors on mortality and life expectancy among United States veterans: The Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: Lifestyle medicine has been proposed as a way to address the root causes of chronic disease and their associated health care costs. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate mortality risk and longevity associated with individual lifestyle factors and comprehensive lifestyle therapy. METHODS: Age- and sex-specific mortality rates were calculated on the basis of 719,147 veterans aged 40-99 y enrolled in the Veteran Affairs Million Veteran Program (2011-2019). Hazard ratios and estimated increase in life expectancy were examined among a subgroup of 276,132 veterans with complete data on 8 lifestyle factors at baseline. The 8 lifestyle factors included never smoking, physical activity, no excessive alcohol consumption, restorative sleep, nutrition, stress management, social connections, and no opioid use disorder. RESULTS: On the basis of 1.12 million person-years of follow-up, 34,247 deaths were recorded. Among veterans who adopted 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 lifestyle factors, the adjusted hazard ratios for mortality were 0.74 (0.60-0.90), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.73), 0.50 (95% CI: 0.41, 0.61), 0.43 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.52), 0.35 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.43), 0.27 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.33), 0.21 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.26), and 0.13 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.16), respectively, as compared with veterans with no adopted lifestyle factors. The estimated life expectancy at age 40 y was 23.0, 26.5, 28.8, 30.8, 32.7, 35.1, 38.3, 41.3, and 47.0 y among males and 27.0, 28.8, 33.1, 38.0, 39.2, 41.4, 43.8, 46.3, and 47.5 y for females who adopted 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 lifestyle factors, respectively. The difference in life expectancy at age 40 y was 24.0 y for male veterans and 20.5 y for female veterans when comparing adoption of 8-9 lifestyle factors. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of 8 lifestyle factors is associated with a significantly lower risk of premature mortality and an estimated prolonged life expectancy.

The efficacy of dance interventions for the activity and participation of individuals with cerebral palsy - a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: The aim of this review was to examine the efficacy of dance interventions for individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), measured at any level of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). A comprehensive search of peer-reviewed articles was performed using six electronic databases. RESULTS: Fourteen studies were included in this review, nine of which were also included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analyses yielded a large overall effect for cognitive, motor, and social-emotional function outcomes, with a high degree of heterogeneity between outcome effects, attributable to differences in study design. CONCLUSION: Although recent studies provide support for the acceptance and efficacy of dance interventions for people with CP, the systematic review revealed significant limitations in study design (only 2 randomised control trials). High-quality research that measures outcomes across all dimensions of the ICF, and particularly at the level of participation, are needed to improve the level of empirical support for dance-based interventions.

Movement- and step-based dance practice for cerebral palsy have a positive impact on walking/gait, balance/postural control, and range of motion.Dance programs should move beyond a traditional focus on body structure and function, placing participation at the forefront of the program.Rehabilitation professionals should consider forming partnerships with stakeholders, addressing their goals, experiences, and challenges, with dance as a feasible and important option for participation-based practice.

New statin use, mortality, and first cardiovascular events in older US Veterans by frailty status.

BACKGROUND: Statins are part of long-term medical regimens for many older adults. Whether frailty modifies the protective relationship between statins, mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is unknown. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of US Veterans ≥65, without CVD or prior statin use seen in 2002-2012, followed through 2017. A 31-item frailty index was used. The co-primary endpoint was all-cause mortality or MACE (MI, stroke/TIA, revascularization, or cardiovascular death). Cox proportional hazards models were developed to evaluate the association of statin use with outcomes; propensity score overlap weighting accounted for confounding by indication. RESULTS: We identified 710,313 Veterans (mean age (SD) 75.3(6.5), 98% male, 89% white); 86,327 (12.1%) were frail. Over mean follow-up of 8 (5) years, there were 48.6 and 72.6 deaths per 1000 person-years (PY) among non-frail statin-users vs nonusers (weighted Incidence Rate Difference (wIRD)/1000 person years (PY), -24.0[95% CI, -24.5 to -23.6]), and 90.4 and 130.4 deaths per 1000PY among frail statin-users vs nonusers (wIRD/1000PY, -40.0[95% CI, -41.8 to -38.2]). There were 51.7 and 60.8 MACE per 1000PY among non-frail statin-users vs nonusers (wIRD/1000PY, -9.1[95% CI, -9.7 to -8.5]), and 88.2 and 102.0 MACE per 1000PY among frail statin-users vs nonusers (wIRD/1000PY, -13.8[95% CI, -16.2 to -11.4]). There were no significant interactions by frailty for statin users vs non-users by either mortality or MACE outcomes, p-interaction 0.770 and 0.319, respectively. Statin use was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.61 (0.60-0.61)) and MACE (HR 0.86 (0.85-0.87)). CONCLUSIONS: New statin use is associated with a lower risk of mortality and MACE, independent of frailty. These findings should be confirmed in a randomized clinical trial.

Development of Portable Electronic Health Record Based Algorithms to Identify Individuals with Diabetic Retinopathy.

Objectives: To develop, validate and implement algorithms to identify diabetic retinopathy (DR) cases and controls from electronic health care records (EHR)s. Methods : We developed and validated EHR-based algorithms to identify DR cases and individuals with type I or II diabetes without DR (controls) in three independent EHR systems: Vanderbilt University Medical Center Synthetic Derivative (VUMC), the VA Northeast Ohio Healthcare System (VANEOHS), and Massachusetts General Brigham (MGB). Cases were required to meet one of three criteria: 1) two or more dates with any DR ICD-9/10 code documented in the EHR, or 2) at least one affirmative health-factor or EPIC code for DR along with an ICD9/10 code for DR on a different day, or 3) at least one ICD-9/10 code for any DR occurring within 24 hours of an ophthalmology exam. Criteria for controls included affirmative evidence for diabetes as well as an ophthalmology exam. Results: The algorithms, developed and evaluated in VUMC through manual chart review, resulted in a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.93 for cases and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.97 for controls. Implementation of algorithms yielded similar metrics in VANEOHS (PPV=0.94; NPV=0.86) and lower in MGB (PPV=0.84; NPV=0.76). In comparison, use of DR definition as implemented in Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in VUMC, yielded similar PPV (0.92) but substantially reduced NPV (0.48). Implementation of the algorithms to the Million Veteran Program identified over 62,000 DR cases with genetic data including 14,549 African Americans and 6,209 Hispanics with DR. Conclusions/Discussion: We demonstrate the robustness of the algorithms at three separate health-care centers, with a minimum PPV of 0.84 and substantially improved NPV than existing high-throughput methods. We strongly encourage independent validation and incorporation of features unique to each EHR to enhance algorithm performance for DR cases and controls.

Moderate alcohol consumption on the risk of stroke in the Million Veteran Program.

BACKGROUND: There is inconsistent evidence on the association of moderate alcohol consumption and stroke risk in the general population and is not well studied among U.S. Veterans. Furthermore, it is unclear whether primarily drinking beer, wine, or liquor is associated with a difference in stroke risk. METHODS: The study included 185,323 Million Veteran Program participants who self-reported alcohol consumption on the Lifestyle Survey. Moderate consumption was defined as 1-2 drinks/day and beverage preference of beer, wine or liquor was defined if ≥ 50% of total drinks consumed were from a single type of beverage. Strokes were defined using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes from the participants' electronic health record. RESULTS: The mean (sd) age of the sample was 64 (13) years and 11% were women. We observed 4,339 (94% ischemic; 6% hemorrhagic) strokes over a median follow-up of 5.2 years. In Cox models adjusted for age, sex, race, education, income, body mass index, smoking, exercise, diet, cholesterol, prevalent diabetes, prevalent hypertension, lipid-lowering medication, antihypertensive medication, and diabetes medication, moderate alcohol consumption (1-2 drinks/day) was associated with a 22% lower risk of total stroke compared with never drinking [Hazards ratio (HR) 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78 (0.67, 0.92)]. When stratifying by stroke type, we observed a similar protective association with moderate consumption and ischemic stroke [HR (95% CI): 0.76 (0.65, 0.90)], but a non-statistically significant higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke [HR (95% CI): 1.29 (0.64, 2.61)]. We did not observe a difference in ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke risk among those who preferred beer, liquor or wine vs. no beverage preference. When stratifying by prior number of hospital visits (≤ 15, 16-33, 34-64, ≥ 65) as a proxy for health status, we observed attenuation of the protective association with greater number of visits [HR (95% CI): 0.87 (0.63, 1.19) for ≥ 65 visits vs. 0.80 (0.59, 1.08) for ≤ 15 visits]. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a lower risk of ischemic stroke, but not hemorrhagic stroke with moderate alcohol consumption and did not observe substantial differences in risk by beverage preference among a sample of U.S. Veterans. Healthy user bias of moderate alcohol consumption may be driving some of the observed protective association.

Motor-cognitive coupling is impaired in children with mild or severe forms of developmental coordination disorder.

Children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) show deficits in motor-cognitive coupling. However, it remains unclear whether such deficits depend on the severity of DCD. The aim of this study was to examine cognitive-motor coupling under different levels of inhibitory control in children with severe (s-DCD) or moderate DCD (m-DCD), compared with typically-developing children (TDC). The performance of 29 primary-school children aged 6-12 years with s-DCD (Mage = 9.12 ± 1.56 years), 53 m-DCD (Mage = 8.78 ± 1.67 years), and 201 TDC (Mage = 9.20 ± 1.50 years) was compared on a double jump reaching task (DJRT) paradigm, presented on a large 42-inch touchscreen. The task display had a circular home-base, centred at the bottom of the display, and three target locations at radials of -20°, 0°, and 20°, 40 cm above the home-base circle. For the standard double-jump reaching task (DJRT), children moved their index finger from home-base circle to touch the target stimulus as fast as possible; 20% were jump trials where the target shifted left or right at lift-off. For the anti-jump reaching task (AJRT), 20% of trials required an anti-jump movement, touching the contralateral target location. While no group differences were shown on the DJRT, the DCD group were slower to complete reaching movements than the TDC group on AJRT; on the latter, the two DCD sub-groups were not shown to differ. Results confirm the presence of motor inhibition deficits in DCD which may not be dependent on the motor severity of the disorder.

biomArker-guided Duration of Antibiotic treatment in hospitalised Patients with suspecTed Sepsis (ADAPT-Sepsis): A protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

Aim: To describe the protocol for a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to determine whether treatment protocols monitoring daily CRP (C-reactive protein) or PCT (procalcitonin) safely allow a reduction in duration of antibiotic therapy in hospitalised adult patients with sepsis. Design: Multicentre three-arm randomised controlled trial. Setting: UK NHS hospitals. Target population: Hospitalised critically ill adults who have been commenced on intravenous antibiotics for sepsis. Health technology: Three protocols for guiding antibiotic discontinuation will be compared: (a) standard care; (b) standard care + daily CRP monitoring; (c) standard care + daily PCT monitoring. Standard care will be based on routine sepsis management and antibiotic stewardship. Measurement of outcomes and costs. Outcomes will be assessed to 28 days. The primary outcomes are total duration of antibiotics and safety outcome of all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes include: escalation of care/re-admission; infection re-lapse/recurrence; antibiotic dose; length and level of critical care stay and length of hospital stay. Ninety-day all-cause mortality rates will also be collected. An assessment of cost effectiveness will be performed. Conclusion: In the setting of routine NHS care, if this trial finds that a treatment protocol based on monitoring CRP or PCT safely allows a reduction in duration of antibiotic therapy, and is cost effective, then this has the potential to change clinical practice for critically ill patients with sepsis. Moreover, if a biomarker-guided protocol is not found to be effective, then it will be important to avoid its use in sepsis and prevent ineffective technology becoming widely adopted in clinical practice.

Serum Cholesterol and Impact of Age on Coronary Heart Disease Death in More Than 4 Million Veterans.

Background The lipid hypothesis postulates that lower blood cholesterol is associated with reduced coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, which has been challenged by reports of a U-shaped relation between cholesterol and death in recent studies. We sought to examine whether the U-shaped relationship is true and to assess the impact of age on this association. Method and Results We conducted a prospective cohort study of 4 467 942 veterans aged >18 years, with baseline outpatient visits from 2002 to 2007 and follow-up to December 30, 2018, in the Veterans Health Administration electronic health record system. We observed a J-shaped relation between total cholesterol (TC) and CHD mortality after a comprehensive adjustment of confounding factors: flat for TC <180 mg/dL, and greater risk was present at higher cholesterol levels. Compared with veterans with TC between 180 and 199 mg/dL, the multiadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD death were 1.03 (95% CI, 1.02-1.04), 1.07 (95% CI, 1.06-1.09), 1.15 (95% CI, 1.13-1.18), 1.25 (95% CI, 1.22-1.28), and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.42-1.49) times greater among veterans with TC (mg/dL) of 200 to 219, 220 to 239, 140 to 259, 260 to 279 and ≥280, respectively. Similar J-shaped TC-CHD mortality patterns were observed among veterans with and without statin use at or before baseline. Conclusions The cholesterol paradox, for example, higher CHD death in patients with a low cholesterol level, was a reflection of reverse causality, especially among older participants. Our results support the lipid hypothesis that lower blood cholesterol is associated with reduced CHD. Furthermore, the hypothesis remained true when TC was low due to use of statins or other lipid-lowering medication.

Correction for Collider Bias in the Genome-wide Association Study of Diabetes-Related Heart Failure due to Bidirectional Relationship between Heart Failure and Type 2 Diabetes.

Aims: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major risk factor for heart failure (HF) across demographic groups. On the other hand, metabolic impairment, including elevated T2D incidence is a hallmark of HF pathophysiology. We investigated the bidirectional relationship between T2D and HF, and identified genetic associations with diabetes-related HF after correction for potential collider bias. Methods: We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of HF to identify genetic instrumental variables (GIVs) for HF, and to enable bidirectional Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis between T2D and HF. Since genetics and HF can independently influence T2D, collider bias may occur when T2D (i.e., collider) is controlled for by design or analysis. Thus, we conducted GWAS of diabetes-related HF with correction for collider bias. Results: We first identified 61 genomic loci, including 24 novel loci, significantly associated with all-cause HF in 114,275 HF cases and over 1.5 million controls of European ancestry. Combined with the summary statistics of a T2D GWAS, we obtained 59 and 82 GIVs for HF and T2D, respectively. Using a two-sample bidirectional MR approach, we estimated that T2D increased HF risk (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10), while HF also increased T2D risk (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.36-1.88). Then we performed a GWAS of diabetes-related HF corrected for collider bias due to prevalent HF affecting incidence of T2D. After removing the spurious association of TCF7L2 locus due to collider bias, we identified two genome-wide significant loci close to PITX2 (chromosome 4) and CDKN2B-AS1 (chromosome 9) associated with diabetes-related HF in the Million Veteran Program, and replicated the associations in the UK Biobank study. Conclusion: We identified novel HF-associated loci to enable bidirectional MR study of T2D and HF. Our MR findings support T2D as a HF risk factor and provide strong evidence that HF increases T2D risk. As a result, collider bias leads to spurious genetic associations of diabetes-related HF, which can be effectively corrected to identify true positive loci. Evaluation of collider bias should be a critical component when conducting GWAS of complex disease phenotypes such as diabetes-related cardiovascular complications.