A new direction for tackling phosphorus inefficiency in the UK food system.

The UK food system is reliant on imported phosphorus (P) to meet food production demand, though inefficient use and poor stewardship means P is currently accumulating in agricultural soils, wasted or lost with detrimental impacts on aquatic environments. This study presents the results of a detailed P Substance Flow Analysis for the UK food system in 2018, developed in collaboration with industry and government, with the key objective of highlighting priority areas for system interventions to improve the sustainability and resilience of P use in the UK food system. In 2018 the UK food system imported 174.6 Gg P, producing food and exportable commodities containing 74.3 Gg P, a P efficiency of only 43%. Three key system hotspots for P inefficiency were identified: Agricultural soil surplus and accumulation (89.2 Gg P), loss to aquatic environments (26.2 Gg P), and waste disposal to landfill and construction (21.8 Gg P). Greatest soil P accumulation occurred in grassland agriculture (85% of total accumulation), driven by loadings of livestock manures. Waste water treatment (12.5 Gg P) and agriculture (8.38 Gg P) account for most P lost to water, and incineration ashes from food system waste (20.3 Gg P) accounted for nearly all P lost to landfill and construction. New strategies and policy to improve the handling and recovery of P from manures, biosolids and food system waste are therefore necessary to improve system P efficiency and reduce P accumulation and losses, though critically, only if they effectively replace imported mineral P fertilisers.

Phosphorus stocks and flows in an intensive livestock dominated food system.

Current use and management of phosphorus (P) in our food systems is considered unsustainable and considerable improvements in the efficiency of P use are required to mitigate the environmental impact of poor P stewardship. The inherent low P use efficiency of food production from animals means food systems dominated by livestock agriculture can pose unique challenges for improving P management. This paper presents the results of a substance flow analysis for P in the Northern Ireland (NI) food system for the year 2017 as a case study for examining P stewardship in a livestock dominated agricultural system. Imported livestock feed was by far the largest flow of P into the NI food system in 2017 (11,700 t ± 1300 t) and P from livestock excreta the largest internal flow of P (20,400 ± 1900t). The P contained in livestock slurries and manures alone that were returned to agricultural land exceeded total crop and grass P requirement by 20% and were the largest contributor to an annual excess soil P accumulation of 8.5 ± 1.4 kg ha-1. This current livestock driven P surplus also limits the opportunities for P circularity and reuse from other sectors within the food system, e.g. wastewater biosolids and products from food processing waste. Management of livestock P demand (livestock numbers, feed P content) or technological advancements that facilitate the processing and subsequent export of slurries and manures are therefore needed.

Balancing macronutrient stoichiometry to alleviate eutrophication.

Reactive nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs to surface waters modify aquatic environments, affect public health and recreation. Source controls dominate eutrophication management, whilst biological regulation of nutrients is largely neglected, although aquatic microbial organisms have huge potential to process nutrients. The stoichiometric ratio of organic carbon (OC) to N to P atoms should modulate heterotrophic pathways of aquatic nutrient processing, as high OC availability favours aquatic microbial processing. Heterotrophic microbial processing removes N by denitrification and captures N and P as organically-complexed, less eutrophying forms. With a global data synthesis, we show that the atomic ratios of bioavailable dissolved OC to either N or P in rivers with urban and agricultural land use are often distant from a "microbial optimum". This OC-deficiency relative to high availabilities of N and P likely overwhelms within-river heterotrophic processing. We propose that the capability of streams and rivers to retain N and P may be improved by active stoichiometric rebalancing. Although autotrophic OC production contributes to heterotrophic rates substantial control on nutrient processing from allochthonous OC is documented for N and an emerging field for P. Hence, rebalancing should be done by reconnecting appropriate OC sources such as wetlands and riparian forests that have become disconnected from rivers concurrent with agriculture and urbanisation. However, key knowledge gaps require research prior to the safe implementation of this approach in management: (i) to evaluate system responses to catchment inputs of dissolved OC forms and amounts relative to internal production of autotrophic dissolved OC and aquatic and terrestrial particulate OC and (ii) evaluate risk factors in anoxia-mediated P desorption with elevated OC scenarios. Still, we find stoichiometric rebalancing through reconnecting landscape beneficial OC sources has considerable potential for river management to alleviate eutrophication, improve water quality and aquatic ecosystem health, if augmenting nutrient source control.

Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios.

Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying-rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.

Lattice Boltzmann method for the fractional advection-diffusion equation.

Mass transport, such as movement of phosphorus in soils and solutes in rivers, is a natural phenomenon and its study plays an important role in science and engineering. It is found that there are numerous practical diffusion phenomena that do not obey the classical advection-diffusion equation (ADE). Such diffusion is called abnormal or superdiffusion, and it is well described using a fractional advection-diffusion equation (FADE). The FADE finds a wide range of applications in various areas with great potential for studying complex mass transport in real hydrological systems. However, solution to the FADE is difficult, and the existing numerical methods are complicated and inefficient. In this study, a fresh lattice Boltzmann method is developed for solving the fractional advection-diffusion equation (LabFADE). The FADE is transformed into an equation similar to an advection-diffusion equation and solved using the lattice Boltzmann method. The LabFADE has all the advantages of the conventional lattice Boltzmann method and avoids a complex solution procedure, unlike other existing numerical methods. The method has been validated through simulations of several benchmark tests: a point-source diffusion, a boundary-value problem of steady diffusion, and an initial-boundary-value problem of unsteady diffusion with the coexistence of source and sink terms. In addition, by including the effects of the skewness ß, the fractional order α, and the single relaxation time τ, the accuracy and convergence of the method have been assessed. The numerical predictions are compared with the analytical solutions, and they indicate that the method is second-order accurate. The method presented will allow the FADE to be more widely applied to complex mass transport problems in science and engineering.

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.

We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km(2)) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.

How changing root system architecture can help tackle a reduction in soil phosphate (P) levels for better plant P acquisition.

The readily available global rock phosphate (P) reserves may run out within the next 50-130 years, causing soils to have a reduced P concentration which will affect plant P uptake. Using a combination of mathematical modelling and experimental data, we investigated potential plant-based options for optimizing crop P uptake in reduced soil P environments. By varying the P concentration within a well-mixed agricultural soil, for high and low P (35.5-12.5 mg L(-1) respectively using Olsen's P index), we investigated branching distributions within a wheat root system that maximize P uptake. Changing the root branching distribution from linear (evenly spaced branches) to strongly exponential (a greater number of branches at the top of the soil) improves P uptake by 142% for low-P soils when root mass is kept constant between simulations. This causes the roots to emerge earlier and mimics topsoil foraging. Manipulating root branching patterns, to maximize P uptake, is not enough on its own to overcome the drop in soil P from high to low P. Further mechanisms have to be considered to fully understand the impact of P reduction on plant development.

Climate change and coupling of macronutrient cycles along the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and estuarine continuum.

This paper provides an introduction to the Special Issue on "Climate Change and Coupling of Macronutrient Cycles along the Atmospheric, Terrestrial, Freshwater and Estuarine Continuum", dedicated to Colin Neal on his retirement. It is not intended to be a review of this vast subject, but an attempt to synthesize some of the major findings from the 22 contributions to the Special Issue in the context of what is already known. The major research challenges involved in understanding coupled macronutrient cycles in these environmental media are highlighted, and the difficulties of making credible predictions of the effects of climate change are discussed. Of particular concern is the possibility of interactions which will enhance greenhouse gas concentrations and provide positive feedback to global warming.

Quantifying the impact of septic tank systems on eutrophication risk in rural headwaters.

Septic tank systems (STS) are a potential source of nutrient emissions to surface waters but few data exist in the UK to quantify their significance for eutrophication. We monitored the impact of STS on nutrient concentrations in a stream network around a typical English village over a 1-year period. Septic tank effluent discharging via a pipe directly into one stream was highly concentrated in soluble N (8-63mgL(-1)) and P (<1-14mgL(-1)) and other nutrients (Na, K, Cl, B and Mn) typical of detergent and household inputs. Ammonium-N (NH(4)N) and soluble reactive P (SRP) fractions were dominant (70-85% of total) and average concentrations of nitrite-N (NO(2)N) were above levels considered harmful to fish (0.1mgL(-1)). Lower nutrient concentrations were recorded at a ditch and a stream site, but range and average values downstream of rural habitation were still 4 to 10-fold greater than those in upstream sections. At the ditch site, where flow volumes were low, annual flow-weighted concentrations of NH(4)N and SRP increased from 0.04 and 0.07mgL(-1), respectively upstream to 0.55 and 0.21mgL(-1) downstream. At the stream site, flow volumes were twice as large and flow-weighted concentrations increased much less; from 0.04 to 0.21mgL(-1) for NH(4)N and from 0.06 to 0.08mgL(-1) for SRP. At all sites, largest nutrient concentrations were recorded under low flow and stream discharge was the most important factor determining the eutrophication impact of septic tank systems. The very high concentrations, intercorrelation and dilution patterns of SRP, NH(4)-N and the effluent markers Na and B suggested that soakaways in the heavy clay catchment soils were not retaining and treating the septic tank effluents efficiently, with profound implications for stream biodiversity. Water companies, water regulators and rural communities therefore need to be made more aware of the potential impacts of STS on water quality so that their management can be optimised to reduce the risk of potential eutrophication and toxicity to aquatic ecosystems during summer low flow periods.

Mitigating diffuse phosphorus transfer from agriculture according to cost and efficiency.

Potential options for mitigating phosphorus (P) transfer from agriculture to water in England and Wales (E&W) were collated across a range of farm systems to assess their potential effectiveness in reducing mass of P transferred and potential cost (pounds sterling [ pound]) to the farming industry. A simple model framework (called PEASE) incorporating a number of assumptions was used to identify 15 methods for mitigating inputs of P to agricultural systems, 19 methods for preventing mobilization of P, and six methods for controlling the transport of P to streams. The scope for largest reductions in P inputs was to grassland and horticulture. Potential reductions in P mobilization were up to 1.2 kg P ha(-1). Reductions in P transfer associated with transport mitigation were larger than those associated with input and mobilization methods (up to 2.2 kg P ha(-1)). The largest estimated reductions were achieved by installing buffer zones and constructed wetlands, the former being very cost effective ( pound3-5 kg(-1) P saved). Plots of cost curves helped identify where the combined and cumulative P transfer reductions were attainable; these were approximately 0.2 kg ha(-1) for uplands, 0.6 kg ha(-1) for outdoor pigs, 0.9 kg ha(-1) for intensive dairy, and 2.2 kg ha(-1) for arable examples. We concluded that established catchment-scale evidence for mitigation is sparse, especially for specific farm systems in E&W. Sensitivities and uncertainties in the approach, especially associated with expert coefficients, are noted. This approach is nonetheless considered useful for prioritizing where and how best options might be most effectively targeted for least cost but greatest benefit.

Characterization of phosphorus sources in rural watersheds.

Correct identification of P sources in rural watersheds is critical for the development of cost-effective measures to combat agriculturally-driven eutrophication. The chemical composition of various storm runoff types (field surface runoff, field drain outfalls, roads, farmyards, and septic tanks) and the receiving streams in three micro (<10 km(2)) watersheds of varying agricultural intensity were monitored over a 2-yr period. Mean weekly stream soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations increased from 29 and 69 microg L(-1), respectively in the watershed with the lowest intensity agriculture to 382 and 503 microg L(-1), respectively in the watershed with high intensity agriculture and a village sewage treatment works. Concentrations of TP in storm runoff varied by up to two orders of magnitude reflecting the complex origins, routing, and composition of contributing source areas. Application of the DESPRAL test suggested field runoff TP concentrations were influenced by both P and organic matter in soil. However, runoff from impervious surfaces (farmyard and roads), and/or influenced by septic tank discharges, was significantly more concentrated (0.08-16 mg TP L(-1), mean >>1 mg L(-1)) than surface and subsurface runoff from cultivated land and pasture (0.02-3.6 mg TP L(-1), mean <1 mg L(-1)), and/or contained a significantly greater proportion (>50% vs. <50%) of P in dissolved forms. It is concluded that P sources associated with the functioning of rural communities (impervious surfaces, detergents, and wastewater) may be more ecologically relevant than those associated with agriculture and should be better quantified and controlled to avoid localized eutrophication impacts.

Assessing the effectiveness of actions to mitigate nutrient loss from agriculture: a review of methods.

Diffuse nutrient loss from agriculture is degrading surface and groundwater quality throughout Europe, leaving water bodies at risk of not reaching targets set by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Mitigation methods to reduce diffuse agricultural nutrient loss need to be implemented where water bodies have been identified as at risk of not reaching good status by 2015. Though the effectiveness of individual mitigation methods has usually been assessed in controlled experiments, it is necessary to quantify impact under a wider range of environmental and agricultural conditions and at the catchment scale to ensure that action taken now will be sufficient to meet WFD targets. Due to catchment buffering and long transit times (>50 years), it is unlikely that responses to intervention will be observed by 2015 in many water bodies. In this review, we compare the attributes and usefulness of different approaches (direct measurement, nutrient budgeting, risk assessment and modelling) to assess the efficacy of actions to mitigate sources and transport of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from agricultural land to water. Modelling and 'measured changes in farm activity' through budgeting avoid the time lags associated with direct measurement and enable rapid evaluations of different options before implementation. Budgeting approaches using on-farm data also provide a simpler, more communicable means of assessment but currently fail to consider the timing and transport aspects of mitigation and assume a direct causal relationship between potential and actual nutrient loss. Risk assessment and modelling applications are potentially more comprehensive and able to better reflect choice of mitigation at a range of scales, but assessments demand increased availability of data, and there is a large degree of uncertainty associated with their spatial and temporal dimensions which is difficult to validate adequately. The failings of individual approaches suggest that these assessment methods should be integrated to maximise their potential usefulness and positive attributes. This will enable nutrient inputs to be utilised most efficiently at broad scales and site specific actions to reduce nutrient transport and delivery can be targeted most cost-effectively at smaller scales. Such an integrated approach will also more effectively engage and involve the farmer in what must be an iterative process.

Delivery and cycling of phosphorus in rivers: a review.

Phosphorus (P) supply (concentration and flux) is an important driver for biological activity in flowing waters and needs to be managed to avoid eutrophication impacts associated with urbanisation and agricultural intensification. This paper examines the role of in-stream retention and cycling in regulating river P concentrations in order to better understand the links between P sources and their ecological impacts. In terms of their composition (solubility and concentration), patterns of delivery (mode and timing) and therefore ecological relevance, P sources entering rivers are best grouped into wastewater discharges > runoff from impervious surfaces (roads, farmyards) > runoff from pervious surfaces (forestry, cultivated land and pasture). The localized impacts of soluble P discharges during ecologically sensitive periods can be distinguished from the downstream impacts associated with particulate P discharges under high flows due to the different processes by which these sources are retained, transformed and assimilated within the river channel. The range of physico-chemical processes involved in P cycling and the variable importance of these processes in different river environments according to stream size, stream geomorphology and anthropogenic pressures are summarised. It is concluded that the capacity to retain (process) P within the river channel, and hence regulate the downstream delivery of P without stressing the aquatic communities present, is considerable, especially in headwaters. To help achieve good water quality, there is scope to better manage this ecosystem service through regulation of P supply whilst optimising in-stream P retention according to subsidy-stress theory. Further research is needed to develop in-stream management options for maximising P subsidies and to demonstrate that regulation of downstream P delivery will reduce the incidence of eutrophication in connected waterbodies.