Adherence to the Dutch dietary guidelines is inversely associated with 20-year mortality in a large prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Dutch guidelines for a healthy diet aim to reduce major chronic diseases. However, supporting evidence on their overall association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality is limited. Recently, the Dutch Healthy Diet-index (DHD-index) has been developed to assess adherence to these guidelines. The aim was to examine the association between the DHD-index and all-cause mortality and deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and cancer. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We followed 3593 men and women aged 55 years and older enrolled in the Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study, from baseline in 1990-1993 to 2011. A validated 170-item food frequency questionnaire at baseline was used to calculate the DHD-index score (maximum 90 points). Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) adjusting for age, sex, total energy intake, smoking and educational level. RESULTS: During the 20-year follow-up, 1831 (51%) deaths were reported. Mean DHD-index score was 60.6 (s.d. 10.6). The score was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (highest vs lowest quartile HR 0.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67, 0.89). Inverse but non-significant associations were observed for mortality due to CVD (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.55, 1.01), CHD (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.34, 1.06) and stroke (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.36, 1.22), whereas no association was observed with cancer mortality (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.90, 1.11). CONCLUSIONS: A higher level of adherence to the Dutch dietary guidelines, as assessed with the DHD-index, was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, probably due to an inverse association with cardiovascular causes of death.

Disability and not osteoarthritis predicts cardiovascular disease: a prospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies found an association between osteoarthritis (OA) and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and therefore suggested intensive treatment of cardiovascular risk factors in OA patients. However, prospective population-based data is lacking. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between OA and CVD longitudinally in a general population and examine the role of disability in this association. METHODS: This study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands that started in 1989. At baseline 4648 persons aged ≥55, free of CVD were classified into those with and those without radiographic or clinical OA. HRs adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors for developing CVD (a composite of fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and stroke) were calculated. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14.4 years, 1230 cardiovascular events occurred, of which 101 were in participants with clinical OA. Presence of radiographic OA at baseline was not related to future CVD (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.15), neither was presence of clinical OA (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.34). However, persons with increasing disability were more likely to suffer a cardiovascular event compared with non-disabled persons (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.42); this was independent of the presence of OA. CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based study, participants with OA were not at increased risk of CVD. The close relation between disability and osteoarthritis may explain previous findings. Further studies are required in order to clarify whether OA patients need more intensive treatment of their cardiovascular risk factors.

Sex-specific effects of naturally occurring variants in the dopamine receptor D2 locus on insulin secretion and type 2 diabetes susceptibility.

AIMS: Modulation of dopamine receptor D2 (DRD2) activity affects insulin secretion in both rodents and isolated pancreatic ß-cells. We hypothesized that single nucleotide polymorphisms in the DRD2/ANKK1 locus may affect susceptibility to type 2 diabetes in humans. METHODS: Four potentially functional variants in the coding region of the DRD2/ANKK1 locus (rs1079597, rs6275, rs6277, rs1800497) were genotyped and analysed for type 2 diabetes susceptibility in up to 25 000 people (8148 with type 2 diabetes and 17687 control subjects) from two large independent Dutch cohorts and one Danish cohort. In addition, 340 Dutch subjects underwent a 2-h hyperglycaemic clamp to investigate insulin secretion. Since sexual dimorphic associations related to DRD2 polymorphisms have been previously reported, we also performed a gender-stratified analysis. RESULTS: rs1800497 at the DRD2/ANKK1 locus was associated with a significantly increased risk for type 2 diabetes in women (odds ratio 1.14 (1.06-1.23); P = 4.1*104) but not in men (odds ratio 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.07); P = 0.92) or the combined group. Although rs1800497 was not associated with insulin secretion, we did find another single nucleotide polymorphism in this locus, rs6275, to be associated with increased first-phase glucose-stimulated insulin secretion in women (P = 5.5*104) but again not in men (P = 0.34). CONCLUSION: The present data identify DRD2/ANKK1 as a potential sex-specific type 2 diabetes susceptibility gene.

Nutrient-rich foods, cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality: the Rotterdam study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The nutrient-rich food (NRF) index assesses nutrient quality of individual food items by ranking them according to their nutrient composition. The index reflects the nutrient density of the overall diet. We examined the associations between the NRF9.3 index-a score on the basis of nine beneficial nutrients (protein, fiber, vitamins and minerals) and three nutrients to limit (saturated fat, sugar and sodium)-incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 4969 persons aged 55 and older from the Rotterdam Study, a prospective cohort study in the Netherlands, were studied. First, all foods were scored on the basis of their nutrient composition, resulting in an NRF9.3 score on food item level. Subsequently, they were converted into individual weighted scores on the basis of the amount of calories of each food item consumed by the subjects and the total energy intake. The hazard ratios (HRs) of the NRF9.3 index score were adjusted for age, gender, body mass index, smoking history, doctor-prescribed diet, alcohol consumption and education. RESULTS: Food groups that contributed most to the NRF9.3 index score were vegetables, milk and milk products, fruit, bread and potatoes. A high NRF9.3 index score was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR Q4 versus Q1: 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.74, 0.96)). Associations were stronger in women than in men. The NRF9.3 index score was not associated with incidence of CVD. CONCLUSION: Elderly with a higher NRF9.3 index score, indicating more beneficial components and/or less limiting components, had a lower risk of all-cause mortality. Consuming a nutrient-dense diet may improve survival.

Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS. DESIGN: An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events. METHODS: Subjects were divided into a development and internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. Two models, comprising FRS and FRS + ABI, were fitted for the primary outcome of major coronary events. RESULTS: In predicting events in the external validation dataset, C-index for the FRS was 0.672 (95% CI 0.599 to 0.737) in men and 0.578 (95% CI 0.492 to 0.661) in women. The FRS + ABI led to a small increase in C-index in men to 0.685 (95% CI 0.612 to 0.749) and large increase in women to 0.690 (95% CI 0.605 to 0.764) with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 4.3% (95% CI 0.0 to 7.6%, p = 0.050) and 9.6% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. Restricting the FRS + ABI model to those with FRS intermediate 10-year risk of 10 to 19% resulted in higher NRI of 15.9% (95% CI 6.1 to 20.6%, p < 0.001) in men and 23.3% (95% CI 13.8 to 62.5%, p = 0.002) in women. However, incorporating ABI in an improved newly fitted risk factor model had a nonsignificant effect: NRI 2.0% (95% CI 2.3 to 4.2%, p = 0.567) in men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0%, p = 0.483) in women. CONCLUSIONS: An ABI risk model may improve prediction especially in individuals at intermediate risk and when performance of the base risk factor model is modest.

Common carotid intima-media thickness does not add to Framingham risk score in individuals with diabetes mellitus: the USE-IMT initiative.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to investigate whether measurement of the mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) improves cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with diabetes. METHODS: We performed a subanalysis among 4,220 individuals with diabetes in a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis involving 56,194 subjects from 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We first refitted the risk factors of the Framingham heart risk score on the individuals without previous cardiovascular disease (baseline model) and then expanded this model with the mean common CIMT (CIMT model). The absolute 10 year risk for developing a myocardial infarction or stroke was estimated from both models. In individuals with diabetes we compared discrimination and calibration of the two models. Reclassification of individuals with diabetes was based on allocation to another cardiovascular risk category when mean common CIMT was added. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, 684 first-time cardiovascular events occurred among the population with diabetes. The C statistic was 0.67 for the Framingham model and 0.68 for the CIMT model. The absolute 10 year risk for developing a myocardial infarction or stroke was 16% in both models. There was no net reclassification improvement with the addition of mean common CIMT (1.7%; 95% CI -1.8, 3.8). There were no differences in the results between men and women. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: There is no improvement in risk prediction in individuals with diabetes when measurement of the mean common CIMT is added to the Framingham risk score. Therefore, this measurement is not recommended for improving individual cardiovascular risk stratification in individuals with diabetes.

Carotid wall volume quantification from magnetic resonance images using deformable model fitting and learning-based correction of systematic errors.

We present a method for carotid vessel wall volume quantification from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The method combines lumen and outer wall segmentation based on deformable model fitting with a learning-based segmentation correction step. After selecting two initialization points, the vessel wall volume in a region around the bifurcation is automatically determined. The method was trained on eight datasets (16 carotids) from a population-based study in the elderly for which one observer manually annotated both the lumen and outer wall. An evaluation was carried out on a separate set of 19 datasets (38 carotids) from the same study for which two observers made annotations. Wall volume and normalized wall index measurements resulting from the manual annotations were compared to the automatic measurements. Our experiments show that the automatic method performs comparably to the manual measurements. All image data and annotations used in this study together with the measurements are made available through the website http://ergocar.bigr.nl.

Lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 variants and dietary fatty acids: meta-analysis of European origin and African American studies.

OBJECTIVE: Low-density lipoprotein-related receptor protein 1 (LRP1) is a multi-functional endocytic receptor and signaling molecule that is expressed in adipose and the hypothalamus. Evidence for a role of LRP1 in adiposity is accumulating from animal and in vitro models, but data from human studies are limited. The study objectives were to evaluate (i) relationships between LRP1 genotype and anthropometric traits, and (ii) whether these relationships were modified by dietary fatty acids. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted race/ethnic-specific meta-analyses using data from 14 studies of US and European whites and 4 of African Americans to evaluate associations of dietary fatty acids and LRP1 genotypes with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and hip circumference, as well as interactions between dietary fatty acids and LRP1 genotypes. Seven single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of LRP1 were evaluated in whites (N up to 42 000) and twelve SNPs in African Americans (N up to 5800). RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex and population substructure if relevant, for each one unit greater intake of percentage of energy from saturated fat (SFA), BMI was 0.104 kg m(-2) greater, waist was 0.305 cm larger and hip was 0.168 cm larger (all P<0.0001). Other fatty acids were not associated with outcomes. The association of SFA with outcomes varied by genotype at rs2306692 (genotyped in four studies of whites), where the magnitude of the association of SFA intake with each outcome was greater per additional copy of the T allele: 0.107 kg m(-2) greater for BMI (interaction P=0.0001), 0.267 cm for waist (interaction P=0.001) and 0.21 cm for hip (interaction P=0.001). No other significant interactions were observed. CONCLUSION: Dietary SFA and LRP1 genotype may interactively influence anthropometric traits. Further exploration of this, and other diet x genotype interactions, may improve understanding of interindividual variability in the relationships of dietary factors with anthropometric traits.

Changing prediction of mortality by systolic blood pressure with increasing age: the Rotterdam study.

There are indications that in persons of older age, systolic blood pressure (SBP) is no longer associated with mortality. This raises the question whether the predictive value of SBP changes from younger to older age groups. Analysis in the Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study among 4,612 participants aged ≥55 years without previous cardiovascular disease and with a median follow-up of 14.9 (interquartile range, 11.1-15.8) years. Within four age groups (55-64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years), the predictive value of baseline SBP for mortality was studied. From age 55 to ≥85 years, risk of all-cause mortality associated with SBP ≥160 mmHg decreased from HR 1.7 (95%CI 1.2-2.2) to HR 0.7 (95%CI 0.4-1.1), p for trend <0.001. For participants with SBP 140-159 mmHg, the risk decreased from HR 1.2 (95%CI 0.9-1.5) to HR 0.7 (95%CI 0.5-1.1), p for trend <0.001. Analyses in the 5-year age groups showed an increased risk with higher SBPs up to age 75 years. After 75 years, a trend towards SBP no longer being associated with an increased mortality risk was seen in our study. These findings need to be considered with recently reported beneficial effects of antihypertensive treatment in this age group.

von Willebrand factor plasma levels, genetic variations and coronary heart disease in an older population.

BACKGROUND: High von Willebrand factor (VWF) levels are associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, it remains unclear whether VWF is causally related to the occurrence of CHD or primarily mirrors endothelial dysfunction, which predisposes to atherosclerosis and subsequent CHD. OBJECTIVES: Because VWF is largely determined by genetic factors, we investigated whether VWF antigen levels (VWF:Ag) and the risk of CHD are affected by common variations in the VWF gene. METHODS: We included 7002 participants (≥ 55 years) from the large prospective population-based Rotterdam Study in the discovery cohort. The extension cohort of the Rotterdam Study, consisting of 3011 participants, was used as a replication cohort. We determined VWF:Ag levels and genotype data of 38 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in VWF. Subsequently, hazard ratios for CHD were calculated and genetic analyses were performed to assess the relationship between SNPs, VWF:Ag levels and CHD risk. RESULTS: We identified and replicated three SNPs that were associated with VWF:Ag: rs216321 (ß = 0.10 [95% confidence interval, CI, 0.06;0.13]) (Ala852Gln), rs1063856 (ß = 0.05 [95% CI 0.03;0.07]) (Thr789Ala) and rs2283333 (ß = 0.09 [95% CI 0.05;0.21]) (intron 15). However, genetic polymorphisms in the VWF gene were not associated with the risk of CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we have shown that genetic variations in VWF strongly affect VWF plasma levels, but are not associated with the risk of CHD. Our findings therefore do not support a strong causal relationship between VWF and CHD in elderly individuals of ≥ 55 years, but suggest that VWF is primarily a marker of CHD.

Genetic determinants of von Willebrand factor plasma levels and the risk of stroke: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: High von Willebrand factor (VWF) plasma levels are associated with an increased risk of stroke. VWF levels are strongly heritable. A previous meta-analysis of five large genome-wide association studies identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within eight genetic loci as determinants of VWF levels. Whether these SNPs are associated with stroke risk is not known. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between genetic determinants of VWF levels and stroke risk. METHODS: The study was part of the Rotterdam Study, a large population-based cohort study among subjects aged ≥ 55 years. A total of 5763 participants for whom DNA was available, and who were free of stroke at baseline, were eligible for analysis. VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) levels were measured in 3379 eligible participants. Within each of the eight loci, one top SNP was defined. The association between the eight SNPs and the risk of stroke was analyzed. Then, a genetic score, based on these eight SNPs, was constructed, and its total contribution to VWF plasma levels and stroke risk was investigated. RESULTS: None of the eight SNPs was individually associated with stroke risk. A higher genetic score was significantly associated with a higher VWF:Ag level, but was not associated with an increased risk of stroke. CONCLUSION: Eight SNPs that strongly determine VWF levels are not associated with stroke risk, either individually, or combined in a genetic score.

Does aortic stiffness improve the prediction of coronary heart disease in elderly? The Rotterdam Study.

It has been demonstrated that aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether this measure is of use in cardiovascular risk stratification in clinical practice for elderly subjects (mean age 71.5 years). Within the framework of the Rotterdam Study, we stratified subjects free of coronary heart disease (CHD) at baseline into categories of low (<10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) 10-year risk of CHD based on Framingham risk factors. Within each risk category, we determined the percentages of subjects moving into a higher or lower risk category when adding aortic stiffness to the Framingham risk factors. Among 2849 participants, 223 CHD events occurred during a median follow-up of 7.9 years. In the low risk group, 5% of the subjects could be reclassified and in the high-risk group, 6% of the subjects could be reclassified to the intermediate-risk group. In the intermediate-risk group 3% could be reclassified to the high-risk group and 6% to the low-risk group. In a population of elderly subjects, aortic stiffness measurement in addition to Framingham risk factors leads to a limited reclassification of subjects in 10-year cardiovascular disease-risk categories. Therefore, aortic stiffness is associated with the risk of CHD in elderly, but provides no additional value in cardiovascular risk stratification.

Genome-wide association analysis of coffee drinking suggests association with CYP1A1/CYP1A2 and NRCAM.

Coffee consumption is a model for addictive behavior. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on coffee intake from 8 Caucasian cohorts (N=18 176) and sought replication of our top findings in a further 7929 individuals. We also performed a gene expression analysis treating different cell lines with caffeine. Genome-wide significant association was observed for two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the 15q24 region. The two SNPs rs2470893 and rs2472297 (P-values=1.6 × 10(-11) and 2.7 × 10(-11)), which were also in strong linkage disequilibrium (r(2)=0.7) with each other, lie in the 23-kb long commonly shared 5' flanking region between CYP1A1 and CYP1A2 genes. CYP1A1 was found to be downregulated in lymphoblastoid cell lines treated with caffeine. CYP1A1 is known to metabolize polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which are important constituents of coffee, whereas CYP1A2 is involved in the primary metabolism of caffeine. Significant evidence of association was also detected at rs382140 (P-value=3.9 × 10(-09)) near NRCAM-a gene implicated in vulnerability to addiction, and at another independent hit rs6495122 (P-value=7.1 × 10(-09))-an SNP associated with blood pressure-in the 15q24 region near the gene ULK3, in the meta-analysis of discovery and replication cohorts. Our results from GWASs and expression analysis also strongly implicate CAB39L in coffee drinking. Pathway analysis of differentially expressed genes revealed significantly enriched ubiquitin proteasome (P-value=2.2 × 10(-05)) and Parkinson's disease pathways (P-value=3.6 × 10(-05)).

Measures of body composition and risk of heart failure in the elderly: the Rotterdam study.

OBJECTIVES: The incidence of heart failure increases with aging. Aim of the present study was to determine whether measures body composition predict incident heart failure in older adults. SETTING: Prospective community-based cohort study. 5, 868 men and women aged 55 years and older participating the Rotterdam study. Measures of body mass index and waist circumference were obtained at baseline. Information on incident heart failure was obtained during follow-up. Cox regression analyses were performed to investigate the possible association between measure of body composition and incident heart failure. RESULTS: During a mean follow up of 10.9 (SD ±4.4) years, 765 participants had heart failure. After adjustment for age and gender, 1-standard deviation of body mass index, waist circumference and the waist-hip ratio predicted heart failure (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.17-1.34; HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.18-1.36; and HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.08-1.27), respectively. In age-stratified analyses, 1-standard deviation of body mass index (1.17; 95% CI 1.06- 1.29) and waist circumference (1.16; 95% CI 1.05- 1.29) were still associated with the risk of heart failure in the oldest participants, whereas the waist-hip ratio was not (1.06; 95% CI 0.945-1.18). CONCLUSION: Although estimates decrease with age, measures of overall and central adiposity predict incident heart failure among community dwelling older adults.

Association of an APOC3 promoter variant with type 2 diabetes risk and need for insulin treatment in lean persons.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: An APOC3 promoter haplotype has been previously associated with type 1 diabetes. In this population-based study, we investigated whether APOC3 polymorphisms increase type 2 diabetes risk and need for insulin treatment in lean participants. METHODS: In the Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort (n = 7,983), Cox and logistic regression models were used to analyse the associations and interactive effects of APOC3 promoter variants (-482C > T, -455T > C) and BMI on type 2 diabetes risk and insulin treatment. Analyses were followed by replication in an independent case-control sample (1,817 cases, 2,292 controls) and meta-analysis. RESULTS: In lean participants, the -482T allele was associated with increased risk of prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes: OR -482CT 1.47 (95% CI 1.13-1.92), -482TT 1.40 (95% CI 0.83-2.35), p = 0.009 for trend; HR -482CT 1.35 (95% CI 0.96-1.89), -482TT 1.68 (95% CI 0.91-3.1), p = 0.03 for trend, respectively. These results were confirmed by replication. Meta-analysis was highly significant (-482T meta-analysis p = 1.1 × 10(-4)). A borderline significant interaction was observed for insulin use among participants with type 2 diabetes (-482CT*BMI p = 0.06, -455TC*BMI p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: At a population-based level, the influence of APOC3 promoter variants on type 2 diabetes risk varies with the level of adiposity. Lean carriers of the -482T allele had increased type 2 diabetes risk, while such an effect was not observed in overweight participants. Conversely, in overweight participants the -455C allele seemed protective against type 2 diabetes. The interaction of the variants with need for insulin treatment may indicate beta cell involvement in lean participants. Our findings suggest overlap in the genetic backgrounds of type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes in lean patients.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes that are associated with a modified response to statin therapy: the Rotterdam Study.

The objective of this study was to investigate whether common variation in genes involved in lipid metabolism modify the effect of statins on serum total cholesterol concentration. Statin users were identified in the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study of subjects >55 years of age. We studied the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes involved in lipid metabolism and total cholesterol response to statin therapy, using linear regression analysis and adjusting for potential confounders. Replication was performed in an independent extended cohort of the Rotterdam Study. Genotype data and total cholesterol concentrations after start of statin therapy were available for 554 newly started statin users. Two SNPs were associated with a significantly higher cholesterol concentration under statin therapy: SNP rs1532624 in the CETP gene (ß: 0.141 mmol l(-1), P=0.004 per additional allele) and SNP rs533556 in the APOA1 gene (ß: 0.138 mmol l(-1), P=0.005 per additional allele). In the replication sample, only the CETP rs1532624 SNP again showed a significant association. The SNPs were not related to baseline total cholesterol in non-statin users. In conclusion, we found that the CETP rs1532624 polymorphism is associated with cholesterol response to statin therapy in a cohort of elderly subjects in the general population.

Insulin metabolism and the risk of Alzheimer disease: the Rotterdam Study.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes mellitus has been associated with an increased risk of Alzheimer disease (AD), but how it exerts its effect remains controversial. Possible pathophysiologic mechanisms are glucose toxicity and a direct effect of insulin on amyloid metabolism. Most studies had short follow-up, and longer-term effects of diabetes on AD risk are unknown. We investigated whether fasting glucose and insulin levels and insulin resistance are associated with the risk of AD and whether this risk is constant over time. METHODS: The study was based on 3,139 participants of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study. All subjects were free from dementia, did not have a history of diabetes, and had fasting levels of glucose and insulin measured at baseline. Insulin resistance was estimated with the homeostasis model assessment. We investigated how fasting glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance are related to the risk of AD in 3 different strata according to time-to-event, using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During follow-up, 211 participants developed AD, 71 of them within 3 years of baseline. Levels of insulin and insulin resistance were associated with a higher risk of AD within 3 years of baseline. After 3 years, the risk was no longer increased. Glucose was not associated with a higher risk of AD. There was no interaction of APOE ε4 carriership and insulin metabolism on the risk of AD. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that insulin metabolism influences the clinical manifestation of AD only within 3 years.

Heart failure and the risk of stroke: the Rotterdam Study.

Patients with heart failure used to have an increased risk of stroke, but this may have changed with current treatment regimens. We assessed the association between heart failure and the risk of stroke in a population-based cohort that was followed since 1990. The study uses the cohort of the Rotterdam Study and is based on 7,546 participants who at baseline (1990­1993) were aged 55 years or over and free from stroke. The associations between heart failure and risk of stroke were assessed using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, diabetes mellitus, BMI, ankle brachial index, blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction and relevant medication). At baseline, 233 participants had heart failure. During an average follow-up time of 9.7 years, 1,014 persons developed heart failure, and 827 strokes (470 ischemic, 75 hemorrhagic, 282 unclassified) occurred. The risk of ischemic stroke was more than five-fold increased in the first month after diagnosis of heart failure (age and sex adjusted HR 5.79, 95% CI 2.15­15.62), but attenuated over time (age and sex adjusted HR 3.50 [95% CI 1.96­6.25] after 1­6 months and 0.83 [95% CI 0.53­1.29] after 0.5­6 years). Additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors only marginally attenuated these risks. In conclusion, the risk of ischemic stroke is strongly increased shortly after the diagnosis of heart failure but returns to normal within 6 months after onset of heart failure.