Clonal hematopoiesis, cardiovascular events and treatment benefit in 63,700 individuals from five TIMI randomized trials.

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease in the general population. Currently, it is unclear whether this association is observed in large clinical trial cohorts with a high burden of existing CV disease or whether CV therapies can mitigate CHIP-associated CV risk. To address these questions, we studied 63,700 patients from five randomized trials that tested established therapies for CV disease, including treatments targeting the proteins PCSK9, SGLT2, P2Y12 and FXa. During a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 7,453 patients had at least one CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke or coronary revascularization). The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for CV events for CHIP+ patients was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.99-1.16, P = 0.08), with consistent risk estimates across each component of CV risk. Significant heterogeneity in the risk of MI was observed, such that CHIP+ patients had a 30% increased risk of first MI (aHR = 1.31 (1.05-1.64), P = 0.02) but no increased risk of recurrent MI (aHR = 0.94 (0.79-1.13), Pint = 0.008), as compared to CHIP- patients. Moreover, no significant heterogeneity in treatment effect between individuals with and without CHIP was observed for any of the therapies studied in the five trials. These results indicate that in clinical trial populations, CHIP is associated with incident but not recurrent coronary events and that the presence of CHIP does not appear to identify patients who will derive greater benefit from commonly used CV therapies.

Risk of new-onset diabetes and efficacy of pharmacological weight loss therapy.

AIMS: To develop a clinical risk model to identify individuals at higher risk of developing new-onset diabetes and who might benefit more from weight loss pharmacotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 21 143 patients without type 2 diabetes at baseline from two TIMI clinical trials of stable cardiovascular patients were divided into a derivation (~2/3) and validation (~1/3) cohort. The primary outcome was new-onset diabetes. Twenty-seven candidate risk variables were considered, and variable selection was performed using multivariable Cox regression. The final model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration, and for its ability to identify patients who experienced a larger benefit from the weight loss medication lorcaserin in terms of risk of new-onset diabetes. RESULTS: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 2.3 (1.8-2.7) years, new-onset diabetes occurred in 1013 patients (7.7%). The final model included five independent predictors (glycated haemoglobin, fasting glucose, age, body mass index, and triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein). The clinical risk model showed good discrimination (Harrell's C-indices 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.788-0.817 and 0.807, 95% CI 0.788-0.826) in the derivation and validation cohorts. The calibration plot demonstrated adequate calibration (2.5-year area under the curve was 81.2 [79.1-83.5]). While hazard ratios for new-onset diabetes with a weight-loss therapy were comparable across risk groups (annual risks of <1%, 1%-5%, and >5%), there was a sixfold gradient in absolute risk reduction from lowest to highest risk group (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical risk model effectively predicts new-onset diabetes, with potential implications for personalized patient care and therapeutic decision making.

Efficacy and safety of SGLT2 inhibitors with and without glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists: a SMART-C collaborative meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists both improve cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. We sought to evaluate whether the benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors are consistent in patients receiving and not receiving GLP-1 receptor agonists. METHODS: We conducted a collaborative meta-analysis of trials included in the SGLT2 Inhibitor Meta-Analysis Cardio-Renal Trialists' Consortium, restricted to participants with diabetes. Treatment effects from individual trials were obtained from Cox regression models and pooled using inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. The two main cardiovascular outcomes assessed included major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death), and hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death. The main kidney outcomes assessed were chronic kidney disease progression (≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], kidney failure [eGFR <15 mL/min/1·73 m2, chronic dialysis, or kidney transplantation], or death due to kidney failure), and the rate of change in eGFR over time. Safety outcomes were also assessed. FINDINGS: Across 12 randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials, 3065 (4·2%) of 73 238 participants with diabetes were using GLP-1 receptor agonists at baseline. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in participants both receiving and not receiving GLP-1 receptor agonists (hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·63-1·03 vs 0·90, 0·86-0·94; p-heterogeneity=0·31). Effects on hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death (0·76, 0·57-1·01 vs 0·78, 0·74-0·82; p-heterogeneity=0·90) and chronic kidney disease progression (0·65, 0·46-0·94 vs 0·67, 0·62-0·72; p-heterogeneity=0·81) were also consistent regardless of GLP-1 receptor agonist use, as was the effect on the chronic rate of change in eGFR over time (heterogeneity=0·92). Fewer serious adverse events occurred with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo, irrespective of GLP-1 receptor agonist use (relative risk 0·87, 95% CI 0·79-0·96 vs 0·91, 0·89-0·93; p-heterogeneity=0·41). INTERPRETATION: The effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on cardiovascular and kidney outcomes are consistent regardless of the background use of GLP-1 receptor agonists. These findings suggest independent effects of these evidence-based therapies and support clinical practice guidelines recommending the use of these agents in combination to improve cardiovascular and kidney metabolic outcomes. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Ramaciotti Foundation.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: A SMART-C Collaborative Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) consistently improve heart failure and kidney-related outcomes; however, effects on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) across different patient populations are less clear. METHODS: This was a collaborative trial-level meta-analysis from the SGLT2i Meta-analysis Cardio-Renal Trialists Consortium, which includes all phase 3, placebo-controlled, outcomes trials of SGLT2i across 3 patient populations (patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure [HF], or chronic kidney disease). The outcomes of interest were MACE (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction , or stroke), individual components of MACE (inclusive of fatal and nonfatal events), all-cause mortality, and death subtypes. Effect estimates for SGLT2i versus placebo were meta-analyzed across trials and examined across key subgroups (established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, previous HF, albuminuria, chronic kidney disease stages, and risk groups). RESULTS: A total of 78 607 patients across 11 trials were included: 42 568 (54.2%), 20 725 (26.4%), and 15 314 (19.5%) were included from trials of patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, HF, or chronic kidney disease, respectively. SGLT2i reduced the rate of MACE by 9% (hazard ration [HR], 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.96], P<0.0001) with a consistent effect across all 3 patient populations (I2=0%) and across all key subgroups. This effect was primarily driven by a reduction in cardiovascular death (HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.92], P<0.0001), with no significant effect for myocardial infarction in the overall population (HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.87-1.04], P=0.29), and no effect on stroke (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.91-1.07], P=0.77). The benefit for cardiovascular death was driven primarily by reductions in HF death and sudden cardiac death (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.46-1.02] and HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95], respectively) and was generally consistent across subgroups, with the possible exception of being more apparent in those with albuminuria (Pinteraction=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i reduce the risk of MACE across a broad range of patients irrespective of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney function, or other major clinical characteristics at baseline. This effect is driven primarily by a reduction of cardiovascular death, particularly HF death and sudden cardiac death, without a significant effect on myocardial infarction in the overall population, and no effect on stroke. These data may help inform selection for SGLT2i therapies across the spectrum of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic disease.

Reductions in remnant cholesterol and VLDL cholesterol through inhibition of ANGPTL3 protein synthesis: an analysis from the TRANSLATE-TIMI 70 trial.

AIMS: Remnant cholesterol and very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) are increasingly recognized risk factors for atherosclerotic disease with few therapeutic options. Angiopoietin-like 3 (ANGPTL3), a key protein in the metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, is a promising target. METHODS AND RESULTS: TRANSLATE-TIMI 70 was a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial testing seven dose regimens of vupanorsen, an antisense oligonucleotide against ANGPTL3, in adults with non-HDL-C ≥ 100 mg/dL and triglycerides 150-500 mg/dL. The primary endpoint of this analysis was percentage change in remnant cholesterol (total cholesterol minus directly measured LDL-C minus HDL-C) and VLDL-C (directly measured) over 24 weeks. Two hundred eighty-six patients were enrolled, with a median age of 64 years and 44% female. Median baseline remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C were 42 and 31 mg/dL, respectively (reference: <30 mg/dL). Vupanorsen lowered remnant cholesterol by 42-59% at 24 weeks over placebo (P < 0.001), achieving a median level of 18 mg/dL at the highest dose. Over the same period, VLDL-C was reduced by 52-67% over placebo (P < 0.001), with a median achieved level of 2.5 mg/dL at the highest dose. The effect of vupanorsen on remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C reduction was dose-dependent and directly associated with the degree of ANGPTL3 inhibition: at 90% ANGPTL3 reduction, there was a 61% and 81% decrease in remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C, respectively. CONCLUSION: Inhibition of ANGPTL3 protein synthesis significantly lowered remnant cholesterol and VLDL-C in patients with hypertriglyceridaemia. The magnitude of reduction was associated with the degree of ANGPTL3 inhibition. These findings support ANGPTL3 inhibition as a promising target for lowering cholesterol on triglyceride-rich lipoproteins.

In this randomized controlled trial of 286 participants with elevated triglycerides, treatment with vupanorsen, an ANGPTL3 inhibitor, lowered remnant cholesterol by up to 59% and VLDL cholesterol by up to 67% over placebo. The effect of the treatment was sustained throughout 24 weeks and consistent across key patient subgroups. ANGPTL3 inhibition may be a promising approach to treat patients with elevated triglycerides.

Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Novel Polygenic Risk Score and Established Clinical Risk Factors for Risk Estimation of Aortic Stenosis.

Importance: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have proven to be as strong as or stronger than established clinical risk factors for many cardiovascular phenotypes. Whether this is true for aortic stenosis remains unknown. Objective: To develop a novel aortic stenosis PRS and compare its aortic stenosis risk estimation to established clinical risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from the Million Veteran Program (MVP; 2011-2020), UK Biobank (2006-2010), and 6 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials, including DECLARE-TIMI 58 (2013-2018), FOURIER (TIMI 59; 2013-2017), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (2010-2014), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (2010-2013), SOLID-TIMI 52 (2009-2014), and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (2008-2013), which were a mix of population-based and randomized clinical trials. Individuals from UK Biobank and the MVP meeting a previously validated case/control definition for aortic stenosis were included. All individuals from TIMI trials were included unless they had a documented preexisting aortic valve replacement. Analysis took place from January 2022 to December 2023. Exposures: PRS for aortic stenosis (developed using data from MVP and validated in UK Biobank) and other previously validated cardiovascular PRSs, defined either as a continuous variable or as low (bottom 20%), intermediate, and high (top 20%), and clinical risk factors. Main Outcomes: Aortic stenosis (defined using International Classification of Diseases or Current Procedural Terminology codes in UK Biobank and MVP or safety event data in the TIMI trials). Results: The median (IQR) age in MVP was 67 (57-73) years, and 135 140 of 147 104 participants (92%) were male. The median (IQR) age in the TIMI trials was 66 (54-78) years, and 45 524 of 59 866 participants (71%) were male. The best aortic stenosis PRS incorporated 5 170 041 single-nucleotide variants and was associated with aortic stenosis in both the MVP testing sample (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.37-1.45 per 1 SD PRS; P = 4.6 × 10-116) and TIMI trials (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.27-1.62 per 1 SD PRS; P = 3.2 × 10-9). Among genetic and clinical risk factors, the aortic stenosis PRS performed comparably to most risk factors besides age, and within a given age range, the combination of clinical and genetic risk factors was additive, providing a 3- to 4-fold increased gradient of risk of aortic stenosis. However, the addition of the aortic stenosis PRS to a model including clinical risk factors only improved risk discrimination of aortic stenosis by 0.01 to 0.02 (C index in MVP: 0.78 with clinical risk factors, 0.79 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS; C index in TIMI: 0.71 with clinical risk factors, 0.73 with risk factors and aortic stenosis PRS). Conclusions: This study developed and validated 1 of the first aortic stenosis PRSs. While aortic stenosis genetic risk was independent from clinical risk factors and performed comparably to all other risk factors besides age, genetic risk resulted in only a small improvement in overall aortic stenosis risk discrimination beyond age and clinical risk factors. This work sets the stage for further development of an aortic stenosis PRS.

Natriuretic peptides, body mass index and heart failure risk: Pooled analyses of SAVOR-TIMI 53, DECLARE-TIMI 58 and CAMELLIA-TIMI 61.

AIM: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations are lower in patients with obesity. The interaction between body mass index (BMI) and NT-proBNP with respect to heart failure risk remains incompletely defined. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were pooled across three randomized clinical trials enrolling predominantly patients who were overweight or obese with established cardiometabolic disease: SAVOR-TIMI 53, DECLARE-TIMI 58 and CAMELLIA-TIMI 61. Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) was examined across strata of baseline BMI and NT-proBNP. The effect of dapagliflozin versus placebo was assessed for a treatment interaction across BMI categories in patients with or without an elevated baseline NT-proBNP (≥125 pg/ml). Among 24 455 patients, the median NT-proBNP was 96 (interquartile range [IQR]: 43-225) pg/ml and the median BMI was 33 (IQR 29-37) kg/m2, with 68% of patients having a BMI ≥30 kg/m2. There was a significant inverse association between NT-proBNP and BMI which persisted after adjustment for all clinical variables (p < 0.001). Within any range of NT-proBNP, those at higher BMI had higher risk of HHF at 2 years (comparing BMI <30 vs. ≥40 kg/m2 for NT-proBNP ranges of <125, 125-<450 and ≥450 pg/ml: 0.0% vs. 0.6%, 1.3% vs. 4.0%, and 8.1% vs. 13.8%, respectively), which persisted after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj] 7.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.16-17.66, HRadj 3.22 [95% CI 2.13-4.86], and HRadj 1.87 [95% CI 1.35-2.60], respectively). In DECLARE-TIMI 58, dapagliflozin versus placebo consistently reduced HHF across BMI categories in those with an elevated NT-proBNP (p-trend for HR across BMI = 0.60), with a pattern of greater absolute risk reduction (ARR) at higher BMI (ARR for BMI <30 to ≥40 kg/m2: 2.2% to 4.7%; p-trend = 0.059). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of HHF varies across BMI categories for any given range of circulating NT-proBNP. These findings showcase the importance of considering BMI when applying NT-proBNP for heart failure risk stratification, particularly for patients with low-level elevations in NT-proBNP (125-<450 pg/ml) where there appears to be a clinically meaningful absolute and relative risk gradient.

Hepatic fat changes with antisense oligonucleotide therapy targeting ANGPTL3.

BACKGROUND: Angiopoietin-like protein 3 (ANGPTL3) is a novel therapeutic target for hyperlipidemia. Vupanorsen, an antisense oligonucleotide targeting ANGPTL3, reduced triglycerides up to 57% in a phase 2b trial, but caused dose-dependent increases in hepatic fat fraction (HFF). OBJECTIVE: To determine the degree of HFF progression with escalating doses of vupanorsen, differential HFF increases in key patient subgroups, and the correlation between changes in HFF and liver enzymes. METHODS: TRANSLATE-TIMI 70 was a randomized, placebo-controlled trial testing 7 dosing regimens of vupanorsen in 286 adults with hyperlipidemia. A total of 227 patients had HFF measured at baseline and 24 weeks and were included in this analysis. RESULTS: The median HFF at baseline was 8.5%. Vupanorsen led to dose-dependent relative increases in HFF of up to 76% at 24 weeks (p < 0.001), corresponding to an absolute increase of up to 7.0% at the highest dose (p < 0.001). Increases in HFF were numerically greater in patients who had elevated baseline HFF, body mass index, triglycerides, or diabetes. Vupanorsen also increased liver enzymes in a dose-dependent manner, and changes in HFF were moderately positively correlated with changes in aspartate transaminase (AST) (rho = 0.49, p < 0.001) and alanine transaminase (ALT) (rho = 0.50, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Vupanorsen, an inhibitor of ANGPTL3 protein synthesis, caused dose-dependent increases in HFF. Increases in HFF were only moderately correlated with elevations in AST and ALT, suggesting that liver enzymes are an imperfect indicator to detect increases in hepatic fat. These results highlight the need to monitor HFF in clinical trials of therapies targeting intracellular ANGPTL3 inhibition, especially those that are targeted to the liver.