Elevated risk of multimorbidity post-COVID-19 infection: protective effect of vaccination.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear how the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic has affected multimorbidity incidence among those with one pre-existing chronic condition, as well as how vaccination could modify this association. AIM: To examine the association of Covid-19 infection with multimorbidity incidence among people with one pre-existing chronic condition, including those with prior vaccination. DESIGN: Nested case-control study. METHODS: We conducted a territory-wide nested case-control study with incidence density sampling using Hong Kong electronic health records from public healthcare facilities and mandatory Covid-19 reports. People with one listed chronic condition (based on a list of 30) who developed multimorbidity during 1 January 2020-15 November 2022 were selected as case participants and randomly matched with up to 10 people of the same age, sex and with the same first chronic condition without having developed multimorbidity at that point. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of multimorbidity. RESULTS: In total, 127 744 case participants were matched with 1 230 636 control participants. Adjusted analysis showed that there were 28%-increased odds of multimorbidity following Covid-19 [confidence interval (CI) 22% to 36%] but only 3% (non-significant) with prior full vaccination with BNT162b2 or CoronaVac (95% CI -2% to 7%). Similar associations were observed in men, women, older people aged 65 or more, and people aged 64 or younger. CONCLUSIONS: We found a significantly elevated risk of multimorbidity following a Covid-19 episode among people with one pre-existing chronic condition. Full vaccination significantly reduced this risk increase.

The impact of a complex school nutrition intervention on double burden of malnutrition among Thai primary school children: a 2-year quasi-experiment.

OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the impacts of the Dekthai Kamsai programme on overweight/obesity, underweight and stunting among male and female primary school students. STUDY DESIGN: A quasi-experiment was conducted in 16 intervention and 19 control schools across Thailand in 2018 and 2019. In total, 896 treated and 1779 control students from grades 1 to 3 were recruited. In intervention schools, a set of multifaceted intervention components were added into school routine practices. Anthropometric outcomes were measured at baseline and at the beginning and end of every school term. METHODS: Propensity score matching with linear and Poisson difference-in-difference analyses were used to adjust for the non-randomisation and to analyse the intervention's effects over time. RESULTS: Compared with controls, the increases in mean BMI-for-age Z-score (BAZ) and the incidence rate of overweight/obesity were lower in the intervention schools at the 3rd, 4th and 8th measurements and the 3rd measurement, respectively. The decrease in mean height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) was lower at the 4th measurement. The decrease in the incidence rate of wasting was lower at the 5th, 7th and 8th measurements. The favourable impacts on BAZ and HAZ were found in both sexes, while the favourable impact on overweight/obesity and unfavourable impact on wasting were found in girls. CONCLUSIONS: This intervention might be effective in reducing BAZ, overweight/obesity, poor height gain, but not wasting. These findings highlight the benefits of a multifaceted school nutrition intervention and a need to incorporate tailor-made interventions for wasting to comprehensively address the double burden of malnutrition.

Bariatric surgery is expensive but improves co-morbidity: 5-year assessment of patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery can be effective in weight reduction and diabetes remission in some patients, but is expensive. The costs of bariatric surgery in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were explored here. METHODS: Population-based retrospectively gathered data on patients with obesity and T2DM from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (2006-2017) were evaluated. Direct medical costs from baseline up to 60 months were calculated based on the frequency of healthcare service utilization and dispensing of diabetes medication. Charlson Co-morbidity Index (CCI) scores and co-morbidity rates were measured to compare changes in co-morbidities between surgically treated and control groups over 5 years. One-to-five propensity score matching was applied. RESULTS: Overall, 401 eligible surgical patients were matched with 1894 non-surgical patients. Direct medical costs were much higher for surgical than non-surgical patients in the index year (€36 752 and €5788 respectively; P < 0·001) mainly owing to the bariatric procedure. The 5-year cumulative costs incurred by surgical patients were also higher (€54 135 versus €28 603; P < 0·001). Although patients who had bariatric surgery had more visits to outpatient and allied health professionals than those who did not across the 5-year period, surgical patients had shorter length of stay in hospitals than non-surgical patients in year 2-5. Surgical patients had significantly better CCI scores than controls after the baseline measurement (mean 3·82 versus 4·38 at 5 years; P = 0·016). Costs of glucose-lowering medications were similar between two groups, except that surgical patients had significantly lower costs of glucose-lowering medications in year 2 (€973 versus €1395; P = 0.012). CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery in obese patients with T2DM is expensive, but leads to an improved co-morbidity profile, and reduced length of hospitalization.

SGLT2i as fourth-line therapy and risk of mortality, end-stage renal diseases and cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIM: Current guideline recommends insulin as fourth-line glucose-lowering medications. However, treatment effects of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on the risk of complications are uncertain. This study examines risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and end-stage renal diseases (ESRD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients on triple oral glucose-lowering medications initiating SGLT2i, insulin or other oral medications. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort of patients with T2DM between 2006-2017 was extracted from Hong Kong Hospital Authority database. Patients who were initiated a fourth-line therapy with SGLT2i, insulin or other oral medications were included. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CVD and ESRD were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 18.5 months with 63,122 person-years, SGLT2i and insulin group had the lowest and highest incidence rate of all-cause mortality, CVD and ESRD (1.06, 0.65 and 0.61 vs 4.25, 5.58 and 4.39/100 person-years), respectively. Initiating SGLT2i as fourth-line medication had more benefits on CVD, in particular coronary heart disease and stroke. Insulin users had higher risks of CVD (HR=8.04, 95%CI=3.06-21.12) than SGLT2i users. SGLT2i was associated with insignificant reduction in ESRD (HR=4.62, 95%CI=0.73-29.09) and all-cause mortality (HR=3.06, 95%CI=0.75-12.45), and HF (HR=2.99, 95%CI=0.37-24.42) among patients without established HF. CONCLUSION: Among T2DM patients initiating fourth-line therapy, SGLT2i users had significant benefits in lowering risk of CVD, and potential benefits in lowering risks of ESRD and all-cause mortality. SGLT2i was the preferred fourth-line glucose-lowering medication least likely to be associated with complication risks.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a serious public health issue worldwide, and DM patients have higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which is the leading cause of DM-related deaths. China has the largest DM population, yet a robust model to predict CVDs in Chinese DM patients is still lacking. This systematic review is carried out to summarize existing models and identify potentially important predictors for CVDs in Chinese DM patients. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched for data from April 1st, 2011 to May 31st, 2018. A study was eligible if it developed CVD (defined as total CVD or any major cardiovascular component) risk prediction models or explored potential predictors of CVD specifically for Chinese people with type 2 DM. Standardized forms were utilized to extract information, appraise applicability, risk of bias, and availabilities. RESULTS: Five models and 29 studies focusing on potential predictors were identified. Models for a primary care setting, or to predict total CVD, are rare. A number of common predictors (e.g. age, sex, diabetes duration, smoking status, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, lipid profile, and treatment modalities) were observed in existing models, in which urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are highly recommended for the Chinese population. Variability of blood pressure (BP) and HbA1c should be included in prediction model development as novel factors. Meanwhile, interactions between age, sex, and risk factors should also be considered. CONCLUSIONS: A 10-year prediction model for CVD risk in Chinese type 2 DM patients is lacking and urgently needed. There is insufficient evidence to support the inclusion of other novel predictors in CVDs risk prediction functions for routine clinical use.

Cost-effectiveness of fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) and watchful observation for incidental thyroid nodules.

OBJECTIVES: A trial-based comparison of the use of resources, costs and health utility outcomes of fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC), and watchful observation for incidental small (< 2 cm) thyroid nodules was performed using data from the randomized controlled trial (RCT). METHODS: Using data from 314 patients, healthcare-related use of resources, costs, health utility, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated at 12 months after first presentation of incidental thyroid nodule(s) on an intention-to-treat basis with adjustment for covariates. Uncertainty about the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for FNAC versus watchful management at 12 months of follow-up was incorporated using bootstrapping. Multiple imputation methods were used to deal with missing data. RESULTS: FNAC management was associated with greater use of healthcare resources and mean direct healthcare costs per patient (US$542.47 vs US$411.55). Lower mean 12-month QALYs per patient in FNAC was observed in comparison to watchful observation (0.752 versus 0.758). The probability that FNAC management was cost-effective compared with watchful management at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US50,000 per QALY gained was 26.5%. CONCLUSION: Based on 12-month data from RCT, watchful observation appeared cost-saving compared to FNAC in patients with incidental thyroid nodules that have a low-suspicion sonographic pattern and measure between 1.0 and 2.0 cm from healthcare provider perspective. CLINICALTRIALS. GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02398721.

Saliva as a diagnostic specimen for testing respiratory virus by a point-of-care molecular assay: a diagnostic validity study.

OBJECTIVES: Automated point-of-care molecular assays have greatly shortened the turnaround time of respiratory virus testing. One of the major bottlenecks now lies at the specimen collection step, especially in a busy clinical setting. Saliva is a convenient specimen type that can be provided easily by adult patients. This study assessed the diagnostic validity, specimen collection time and cost associated with the use of saliva. METHODS: This was a prospective diagnostic validity study comparing the detection rate of respiratory viruses between saliva and nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA) among adult hospitalized patients using Xpert® Xpress Flu/RSV. The cost and time associated with the collection of saliva and nasopharyngeal specimens were also estimated. RESULTS: Between July and October 2017, 214 patients were recruited. The overall agreement between saliva and NPA was 93.3% (196/210, κ 0.851, 95% CI 0.776-0.926). There was no significant difference in the detection rate of respiratory viruses between saliva and NPA (32.9% (69/210) versus 35.7% (75/210); p 0.146). The overall sensitivity and specificity were 90.8% (81.9%-96.2%) and 100% (97.3%-100%), respectively, for saliva, and were 96.1% (88.9%-99.2%) and 98.5% (94.7%-99.8%), respectively, for NPA. The time and cost associated with the collection of saliva were 2.26-fold and 2.59-fold lower, respectively, than those of NPA. CONCLUSIONS: Saliva specimens have high sensitivity and specificity in the detection of respiratory viruses by an automated multiplex Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments-waived point-of-care molecular assay when compared with those of NPA. The use of saliva also reduces the time and cost associated with specimen collection.

Hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype and risk of diabetes in people with impaired fasting glucose in primary care: a cohort study.

AIM: We aimed to determine the prospective association between baseline triglyceridaemic-waist phenotypes and diabetic mellitus incidence in individuals with impaired fasting glucose seen in primary care. METHODS: A cohort of 1101 participants (84.4% of the recruited individuals) with impaired fasting glucose were recruited from three primary care clinics during regular follow-ups to monitor their chronic conditions. Baseline triglyceridaemic-waist phenotypes were divided into four groups: (1) normal waistline and triglyceride level (n = 252); (2) isolated central obesity (n = 518); (3) isolated high triglyceride level (n = 80); and (4) central obesity with high triglyceride level (i.e. hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype) (n = 251). The presence of diabetes at follow-up was determined by fasting plasma glucose (≥ 7.0 mmol/l) and/or 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (≥ 11.1 mmol/l) and/or HbA1c (47.5 mmol/mol; ≥ 6.5%) according to American Diabetes Association diagnostic criteria. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions were established to assess the impact of different triglyceridaemic-waist phenotypes on time to diabetes onset. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up period of 6.5 months (sd 4.7 months), the number of diabetes cases was significantly higher in the group with hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype (52.2%) compared with the other three phenotype groups (group 1: 28.2%; group 2: 34.6%; group 3: 30.0%). Only the hypertriglyceridaemic-waist phenotype showed an increased risk of developing diabetes (hazard ratio 1.581, 95% CI 1.172-2.134; P = 0.003) compared with the group with normal waistline and triglyceride level after controlling for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of central obesity and hypertriglyceridaemia is associated with > 50% risk of progression to diabetes within 6 months among individuals with impaired fasting glucose seen in primary care.

Annual direct medical costs associated with diabetes-related complications in the event year and in subsequent years in Hong Kong.

AIM: To develop models to estimate the direct medical costs associated with diabetes-related complications in the event year and in subsequent years. METHODS: The public direct medical costs associated with 13 diabetes-related complications were estimated among a cohort of 128 353 people with diabetes over 5 years. Private direct medical costs were estimated from a cross-sectional survey among 1825 people with diabetes. We used panel data regression with fixed effects to investigate the impact of each complication on direct medical costs in the event year and subsequent years, adjusting for age and co-existing complications. RESULTS: The expected annual public direct medical cost for the baseline case was US$1,521 (95% CI 1,518 to 1,525) or a 65-year-old person with diabetes without complications. A new lower limb ulcer was associated with the biggest increase, with a multiplier of 9.38 (95% CI 8.49 to 10.37). New end-stage renal disease and stroke increased the annual medical cost by 5.23 (95% CI 4.70 to 5.82) and 5.94 (95% CI 5.79 to 6.10) times, respectively. History of acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, end-stage renal disease and lower limb ulcer increased the cost by 2-3 times. The expected annual private direct medical cost of the baseline case was US$187 (95% CI 135 to 258) for a 65-year-old man without complications. Heart disease, stroke, sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy and end-stage renal disease increased the private medical costs by 1.5 to 2.5 times. CONCLUSIONS: Wide variations in direct medical cost in event year and subsequent years across different major complications were observed. Input of these data would be essential for economic evaluations of diabetes management programmes.

Effectiveness of the multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) for diabetic microvascular complications: A population-based cohort study.

AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness of the multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) in reducing the risks of microvascular complications. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted with 29,670 propensity-score-matched RAMP-DM participants and diabetes patients under the usual primary care (14,835 in each group). Study endpoints were the first occurrence of any diabetic microvascular complications, non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy/preproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR/prePDR), sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) or blindness, nephropathy, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), neuropathy and lower-limb ulcers or amputation. Log-rank tests and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regressions were employed to estimate between-group differences in incidences of study endpoints. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 36 months with>41,000 person-years in each group, RAMP-DM participants had a lower incidence of microvascular complications (760 vs 935; adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66-0.81; P<0.001) and lower incidences of all specific microvascular complications except neuropathy (adjusted HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.61-1.45; P=0.778). Adjusted HRs for the RAMP-DM vs control group for ESRD, STDR or blindness, and lower-limb ulcers or amputation were 0.40 (95% CI: 0.24-0.69; P<0.001), 0.55 (95% CI: 0.39-0.78; P=0.001) and 0.49 (95% CI: 0.30-0.80; P=0.005), respectively. CONCLUSION: The RAMP-DM intervention was associated with lower incidences of all microvascular complications except neuropathy over a 3-year follow-up. These encouraging results constitute evidence that structured risk assessment and risk-stratified management provided by a multidisciplinary team is effective for reducing microvascular complications in diabetes patients. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY: NCT02034695, www.ClinicalTrials.gov.

Effect of a structured diabetes education programme in primary care on hospitalizations and emergency department visits among people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus: results from the Patient Empowerment Programme.

AIM: To assess whether a structured diabetes education programme, the Patient Empowerment Programme, was associated with a lower rate of all-cause hospitalization and emergency department visits in a population-based cohort of patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary care. METHODS: A cohort of 24 250 patients was evaluated using a linked administrative database during 2009-2013. We selected 12 125 patients with Type 2 diabetes who had at least one Patient Empowerment Programme session attendance. Patients who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme were matched one-to-one with patients who did, using the propensity score method. Hospitalization events and emergency department visits were the events of interest. Cox proportional hazard and negative binomial regressions were performed to estimate the hazard ratios for the initial event, and incidence rate ratios for the number of events. RESULTS: During a median 30.5 months of follow-up, participants in the Patient Empowerment Programme had a lower incidence of an initial hospitalization event (22.1 vs 25.2%; hazard ratio 0.879; P < 0.001) and emergency department visit (40.5 vs 44%; hazard ratio 0.901; P < 0.001) than those who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme. Participation in the Patient Empowerment Programme was associated with a significantly lower number of emergency department visits (incidence rate ratio 0.903; P < 0.001): 40.4 visits per 100 patients annually in those who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme vs. 36.2 per 100 patients annually in those who did. There were significantly fewer hospitalization episodes (incidence rate ratio 0.854; P < 0.001): 20.0 hospitalizations per 100 patients annually in those who did not participate in the Patient Empowerment Programme vs. 16.9 hospitalizations per 100 patients annually in those who did. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with Type 2 diabetes, the Patient Empowerment Programme was shown to be effective in delaying the initial hospitalization event and in reducing their frequency.

Initial attributable cost and economic burden of clinically-relevant differentiated thyroid cancer: A health care service provider perspective.

BACKGROUND: Rapid rise in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) may impose a heavy economic burden on future healthcare. We aimed to calculate the average first-year monetary cost/patient for DTC and estimate the projected cost burden on our local healthcare system. METHODS: Medical records of 270 clinically-relevant DTC patients were reviewed to calculate the amount of services utilized during the first-year. Only direct costs were included with estimates derived from government gazette. Cancer incidences were derived from the territory-wide cancer registry. Total annual cost equaled to the incidence multiplied by the cost/patient. RESULTS: The average first-year cost of DTC was USD11,560/patient. Initial surgery accounted for 66.9% of total cost. Male and female annual percentage increases for DTC were 4.86% and 4.28%, respectively. Female DTC is projected to surpass rectal cancer in 2019 (20.4/100,000 vs. 20.0/100,000) and colon cancer (47.2/100,000 vs. 46.8/100,000) in 2039. However, the projected incidence of DTC in 2026 would still be about one fourth that of CRC (19.5/100,000 vs. 83.2/100,000). CONCLUSIONS: The average first-year monetary cost of DTC care was relatively low. Initial surgery accounted for most of the cost. Despite a rapid incidence rise, the projected first-year cost for DTC is unlikely to impose substantial economic burden on our local future healthcare system.

Patient Empowerment Programme in primary care reduced all-cause mortality and cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a population-based propensity-matched cohort study.

AIMS: To assess whether a structured diabetes education programme, the Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP), was associated with a lower risk of first cardiovascular disease (CVD) event and all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care. METHODS: A Chinese cohort of 27 278 patients with T2DM and without previous CVD events on or before the baseline study recruitment date was linked to the Hong Kong administrative database from 2008 to 2013. The PEP was provided to patients with T2DM treated at primary care outpatient clinics through community trained professional educators. PEP non-participants were matched one-to-one with the PEP participants using a propensity score method with respect to their baseline covariates. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to estimate the associations of the PEP with the occurrence of first CVD event, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure and death from any cause, controlling for baseline characteristics. RESULTS: During a median of 21.5 months follow-up, 795 (352 PEP participants and 443 PEP non-participants) patients experienced a first CVD event. After adjusting for confounding variables, PEP participants had a lower rate of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.564, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.445-0.715; p < 0.001], first CVD (HR 0.807, 95% CI 0.696-0.935; p = 0.004) and stroke (HR 0.702; 95% CI 0.569-0.867; p = 0.001) than those without PEP. CONCLUSIONS: Enrolment in the PEP was associated with lower all-cause mortality and a lower number of first CVD events among patients with T2DM. The CVD benefit of PEP might be attributable to improving metabolic control through empowerment of self-care and the enhancement of quality of diabetes care in primary care.