Impact of renal function variability on long-term prognosis in ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation.

Background: Although renal dysfunction is associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) following stroke, the impact of renal function variability is unclear. Aim: This study aimed to assess the association between renal function variability and various adverse clinical outcomes in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA)/ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: We conducted a population-based study and retrospectively identified patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of TIA/ischemic stroke and AF during 2016-2020 using the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System of Hong Kong. Serial serum creatinine tested upon the onset of TIA/ischemic stroke and during their subsequent follow-up was collected. Renal function variability was calculated using the coefficient of variation of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Clinical endpoints that occurred during the study period were captured and included ischemic stroke/systemic embolism, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), total bleeding, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality. Competing risk regression and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the associations of renal function variability with the outcomes of interest. Results: A total of 3,809 patients (mean age 80 ± 10 years, 43% men) who satisfied the inclusion and exclusion criteria were followed up for a mean of 2.5 ± 1.5 years (9,523 patient-years). The mean eGFR was 66 ± 22 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline, and the median number of renal function tests per patient during the follow-up period was 20 (interquartile range 11-35). After accounting for potential confounders, a greater eGFR variability was associated with increased risks of recurrent ischemic stroke/systemic embolism [fully adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.20], ICH (1.17, 1.01-1.36), total bleeding (1.13, 1.06-1.21), MACE (1.22, 1.15-1.30), cardiovascular (1.49, 1.32-1.69), non-cardiovascular (1.43, 1.35-1.52), and all-cause mortality (fully adjusted hazard ratio 1.44, 1.39-1.50). Conclusion: Visit-to-visit renal function variability is independently associated with adverse clinical outcomes in TIA/ischemic stroke patients with AF. Further large-scale studies are needed to validate our results.

Association of LDL-cholesterol <1.8 mmol/L and statin use with the recurrence of intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Recent intensive low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering trials, including FOURIER, ODYSSEY OUTCOMES, and Treat Stroke to Target (TST) trials, have mostly refuted the concern surrounding statin use, LDL-C lowering, and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk. However, the results from these trials may not be fully applied to ICH survivors, as the populations studied were mainly patients without prior ICH, in whom the inherent ICH risk is more than 10 times lower than that of ICH survivors. Although available literature on statin use after ICH has demonstrated no excess risk of recurrent ICH, other potential factors that may modify ICH risk, especially hypertension control and ICH etiology, have not generally been considered. Notably, data on LDL-C levels following ICH are lacking. AIMS: We aim to investigate the association between LDL-C levels and statin use with ICH risk among ICH survivors, and to determine whether the risk differed with patients' characteristics, especially ICH etiology. METHODS: Follow-up data of consecutive spontaneous ICH survivors enrolled in the University of Hong Kong prospective stroke registry from 2011 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. ICH etiology was classified as cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) using the modified Boston criteria or hypertensive arteriopathy, while the mean follow-up LDL-C value was categorized as <1.8 or ⩾1.8 mmol/L. The primary endpoint was recurrent ICH. The association of LDL-C level and statin use with recurrent ICH was determined using multivariable Cox regression. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed, including based on ICH etiology and statin prescription. Follow-up blood pressure was included in all the regression models. RESULTS: In 502 ICH survivors (mean age = 64.2 ± 13.5 years, mean follow-up LDL-C = 2.2 ± 0.6 mmol/L, 28% with LDL-C <1.8 mmol/L), 44 had ICH recurrence during a mean follow-up of 5.9 ± 2.8 years. Statin use after ICH was not associated with recurrent ICH (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.57-2.00). The risk of ICH recurrence was increased for follow-up LDL-C <1.8 mmol/L (AHR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.06-3.73). This association was predominantly observed in ICH attributable to CAA (AHR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.06-5.99) and non-statin users (AHR = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.08-7.86). CONCLUSION: The association between post-ICH LDL-C <1.8 mmol/L and recurrent ICH was predominantly observed in CAA patients and those with intrinsically low LDL-C (non-statin users). While statins can be safely prescribed in ICH survivors, LDL-C targets should be individualized and caution must be exercised in CAA patients.

Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy Increases the Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Breast Cancer.

Background: Previous studies suggest that aromatase inhibitors (AIs) increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular events and cardiac arrhythmias in patients with breast cancer, but it is unclear whether AIs also increase the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the use of AIs was associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF in patients with breast cancer. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis involving 5,707 patients with breast cancer (mean age 63.9 ± 11.2 years and 99.9% women) who received adjunctive hormone therapy with an AI (AI group, n = 4,878) or tamoxifen (tamoxifen group, n = 829) in Hong Kong between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2020. After propensity score matching, there were 1,658 and 829 patients with balanced characteristics in the AI group and tamoxifen group, respectively. Results: After 8,863 patient-years of follow-up, patients who were prescribed AI had a trend toward more new-onset arrhythmias compared with those prescribed tamoxifen (0.62 vs 0.30 per 100 patient-years; crude HR: 2.05; P = 0.053). The difference in arrhythmic risk was mainly driven by a higher incidence rate of new-onset AF in the AI group (0.59 vs 0.27 per 100 patient-years; crude HR: 2.18; P = 0.046). The use of AIs was confirmed to be an independent risk factor for new-onset AF on multivariate analysis (adjusted HR: 2.75; P = 0.01). Conclusions: Among breast cancer patients prescribed adjunctive hormonal therapy, AI was associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF. Regular surveillance for new-onset AF should be considered in breast cancer patients treated with an AI.

Location-Specific Hematoma Volume Cutoff and Clinical Outcomes in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Major intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) trials have largely been unable to demonstrate therapeutic benefit in improving functional outcomes. This may be partly due to the heterogeneity of ICH outcomes based on their location, where a small strategic ICH could be debilitating, thus confounding therapeutic effects. We aimed to determine the ideal hematoma volume cutoff for different ICH locations in predicting ICH outcomes. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed consecutive ICH patients enrolled in the University of Hong Kong prospective stroke registry from January 2011 to December 2018. Patients with premorbid modified Rankin Scale score >2 or who underwent neurosurgical intervention were excluded. ICH volume cutoff, sensitivity, and specificity in predicting respective 6-month neurological outcomes (good [modified Rankin Scale score 0-2], poor [modified Rankin Scale score 4-6], and mortality) for specific ICH locations were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. Separate multivariate logistic regression models were also conducted for each location-specific volume cutoff to determine whether these cutoffs were independently associated with respective outcomes. RESULTS: Among 533 ICHs, the volume cutoff for good outcome according to ICH location was 40.5 mL for lobar, 32.5 mL for putamen/external capsule, 5.5 mL for internal capsule/globus pallidus, 6.5 mL for thalamus, 17 mL for cerebellum, and 3 mL for brainstem. ICH smaller than the cutoff for all supratentorial sites had higher odds of good outcomes (all P<0.05). Volumes exceeding 48 mL for lobar, 41 mL for putamen/external capsule, 6 mL for internal capsule/globus pallidus, 9.5 mL for thalamus, 22 mL for cerebellum, and 7.5 mL for brainstem were at greater risk of poor outcomes (all P<0.05). Mortality risks were significantly higher for volumes that exceeded 89.5 mL for lobar, 42 mL for putamen/external capsule, and 21 mL for internal capsule/globus pallidus (all P<0.001). All receiver operating characteristic models for location-specific cutoffs had good discriminant values (area under the curve >0.8), except in predicting good outcome for cerebellum. CONCLUSIONS: ICH outcomes differed with location-specific hematoma size. Location-specific volume cutoff should be considered in patient selection for ICH trials.

Impact of Cerebral Microbleeds in Stroke Patients with Atrial Fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: Cerebral microbleeds are associated with the risks of ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage, causing clinical dilemmas for antithrombotic treatment decisions. We aimed to evaluate the risks of intracranial hemorrhage and ischemic stroke associated with microbleeds in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with vitamin K antagonists, direct oral anticoagulants, antiplatelets, and combination therapy (i.e. concurrent oral anticoagulant and antiplatelet). METHODS: We included patients with documented atrial fibrillation from the pooled individual patient data analysis by the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network. Risks of subsequent intracranial hemorrhage and ischemic stroke were compared between patients with and without microbleeds, stratified by antithrombotic use. RESULTS: A total of 7,839 patients were included. The presence of microbleeds was associated with an increased relative risk of intracranial hemorrhage (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.74, 95% confidence interval = 1.76-4.26) and ischemic stroke (aHR = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.59). For the entire cohort, the absolute incidence of ischemic stroke was higher than intracranial hemorrhage regardless of microbleed burden. However, for the subgroup of patients taking combination of anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy, the absolute risk of intracranial hemorrhage exceeded that of ischemic stroke in those with 2 to 4 microbleeds (25 vs 12 per 1,000 patient-years) and ≥ 11 microbleeds (94 vs 48 per 1,000 patient-years). INTERPRETATION: Patients with atrial fibrillation and high burden of microbleeds receiving combination therapy have a tendency of higher rate of intracranial hemorrhage than ischemic stroke, with potential for net harm. Further studies are needed to help optimize stroke preventive strategies in this high-risk group. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:61-74.

Blood Pressure Control Targets and Risk of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events After Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) survivors are at high risk for recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events. Blood pressure (BP) control represents the most potent intervention to lower these risks, but optimal treatment targets in this patient population remain unknown. We sought to determine whether survivors of ICH achieving more intensive BP control than current guideline recommendations (systolic BP <130 mmHg and diastolic BP <80 mmHg) were at lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and mortality. METHODS: We analyzed data for 1828 survivors of spontaneous ICH from 2 cohort studies. Follow-up BP measurements were recorded 3 and 6 months after ICH, and every 6 months thereafter. Outcomes of interest were major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (recurrent ICH, incident ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction), vascular mortality (defined as mortality attributed to recurrent ICH, ischemic stroke, or myocardial infarction), and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 46.2 months, we observed 166 recurrent ICH, 68 ischemic strokes, 69 myocardial infarction, and 429 deaths. Compared with survivors of ICH with systolic BP 120 to 129 mmHg, participants who achieved systolic BP <120 mmHg displayed reduced risk of recurrent ICH (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.74 [95% CI, 0.59-0.94]) and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (AHR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.53-0.92]). All-cause mortality (AHR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.57-1.03]) and vascular mortality (AHR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.45-1.01]) did not differ significantly. Among participants aged >75 years or with modified Rankin Scale score 4 to 5, systolic BP <120 mmHg was associated with increased all-cause mortality (AHR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.02-1.85] and AHR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03-1.78], respectively), but not vascular mortality. We found no differences in outcome rates between survivors of ICH with diastolic BP <70 versus 70 to 79 mmHg. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting systolic BP <120 mmHg in select groups of survivors of ICH could result in decreased major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events risk without increasing mortality. Our findings warrant investigation in dedicated randomized controlled trials.

Multi-Omics Signatures Link to Ticagrelor Effects on Vascular Function in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Long-term antiplatelet agents including the potent P2Y12 antagonist ticagrelor are indicated in patients with a previous history of acute coronary syndrome. We sought to compare the effect of ticagrelor with that of aspirin monotherapy on vascular endothelial function in patients with prior acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: This was a prospective, single center, parallel group, investigator-blinded randomized controlled trial. We randomized 200 patients on long-term aspirin monotherapy with prior acute coronary syndrome in a 1:1 fashion to receive ticagrelor 60 mg BD (n=100) or aspirin 100 mg OD (n=100). The primary end point was change from baseline in brachial artery flow-mediated dilation at 12 weeks. Secondary end points were changes to platelet activation marker (CD41_62p) and endothelial progenitor cell (CD34/133) count measured by flow cytometry, plasma level of adenosine, IL-6 (interleukin-6) and EGF (epidermal growth factor), and multi-omics profiling at 12 weeks. RESULTS: After 12 weeks, brachial flow-mediated dilation was significantly increased in the ticagrelor group compared with the aspirin group (ticagrelor: 3.48±3.48% versus aspirin: -1.26±2.85%, treatment effect 4.73 [95% CI, 3.85-5.62], P<0.001). Nevertheless ticagrelor treatment for 12 weeks had no significant effect on platelet activation markers, circulating endothelial progenitor cell count or plasma level of adenosine, IL-6, and EGF (all P>0.05). Multi-omics pathway assessment revealed that changes in the metabolism and biosynthesis of amino acids (cysteine and methionine metabolism; phenylalanine, tyrosine, and tryptophan biosynthesis) and phospholipids (glycerophosphoethanolamines and glycerophosphoserines) were associated with improved brachial artery flow-mediated dilation in the ticagrelor group. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with prior acute coronary syndrome, ticagrelor 60 mg BD monotherapy significantly improved brachial flow-mediated dilation compared with aspirin monotherapy and was associated with significant changes in metabolomic and lipidomic signatures. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03881943.

Prognosis and treatment of atrial fibrillation in Asian cities: 1-year review of the Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society Atrial Fibrillation Registry.

AIMS: The aim of this study is to describe the implementation of the current guidance for stroke prevention and treatment option in atrial fibrillation (AF) and to evaluate mortality and morbidity in relation to therapeutic decisions, including persistence with treatment at 1 year in Asia-Pacific regions. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited 4664 patients consecutive in- and outpatients with AF who presented to cardiologists in five countries under the Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) in whom 1-year follow-up was completed for 4003 (65.5% male; mean age 68.5 years). Oral anticoagulant (OAC) use remained high, 77% at follow-up, including 17% prescribed a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) and 60% a non-VKA oral anticoagulant (NOAC). At 1-year follow-up, 93% and 88% remained on a VKA or NOAC, respectively. With good adherence to OAC therapy, 1-year mortality was only 2.7%. Most deaths were non-cardiovascular (72.3%) and the 1-year incidence of stroke/transient ischaemic events (TIA) was low (<1%). Hospital readmissions were common for non-cardiovascular cases and atrial tachyarrhythmias. On multivariate analysis, independent baseline predictors of mortality and/or stroke/TIA/peripheral embolism were age, previous heart failure for >12 months, and malignancy. Independent predictors of mortality were age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, malignancy, and diuretic use. AF as a primary presentation was predictive of lower mortality and/or stroke/TIA/peripheral embolism as well as mortality. CONCLUSION: In this 1-year analysis of the APHRS-AF registry, overall OAC use and persistence were high and were associated with low 1-year cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, but mortality and morbidity related to non-cardiovascular causes were high in AF patients, particularly from malignancy and pneumonia.

Mendelian randomization analysis of vitamin D in the secondary prevention of hypertensive-diabetic subjects: role of facilitating blood pressure control.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D (Vit-D) promotes vascular repair and its deficiency is closely linked to the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension. Whether genetially predicted vitamin D status (serological 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]) confers secondary protection against cardiovascular diseases (CVD) among high-risk hypertensive-diabetic subjects was unknown. METHODS: This is a prospective, individual-data, two-sample Mendelian randomization study. We interrogated 12 prior GWAS-detected SNPs of comprehensive Vit-D mechanistic pathways using high-throughput exome chip analyses in a derivation subcohort (n = 1460) and constructed a genetic risk score (GRS) (rs2060793, rs4588, rs7041; F-statistic = 32, P < 0.001) for causal inference of comprehensive CVD hard clinical endpoints in an independent sample of hypertensive subjects (n = 3746) with prevailing co-morbid T2DM (79%) and serological 25(OH)D deficiency [< 20 ng/mL] 45%. RESULTS: After 55.6 ± 28.9 months, 561 (15%) combined CVD events including myocardial infarction, unstable angina, ischemic stroke, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, and cardiovascular death had occurred. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that genetically predicted reduced vitamin D status was associated with reduced event-free survival from combined CVD events (log-rank = 13.5, P = 0.001). Multivariate-adjusted per-allele increase in GRS predicted reduced combined CVD events (HR = 0.90 [0.84 to 0.96], P = 0.002). Mendelian randomization indicates that increased Vit-D exposure, leveraged through each 1 ng/mL genetically instrumented rise of serum Vit-D, protects against combined CVD events (Wald's estimate: OR = 0.86 [95%CI 0.75 to 0.95]), and myocardial infarction (OR = 0.76 [95%CI 0.60 to 0.90]). Furthermore, genetically predicted increase in Vit-D status ameliorates risk of deviation from achieving guideline-directed hypertension control (JNC-8: systolic target < 150 mmHg) (OR = 0.89 [95%CI 0.80 to 0.96]). CONCLUSIONS: Genetically predicted increase in Vit-D status [25(OH)D] may confer secondary protection against incident combined CVD events and myocardial infarction in a hypertensive-diabetic population where serological 25(OH)D deficiency is common, through facilitating blood pressure control.

Circulating Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally. Risk assessment is crucial for identifying at-risk individuals who require immediate attention as well as to guide the intensity of medical therapy to reduce subsequent risk of CVD. In the past decade, many risk prediction models have been proposed to estimate the risk of developing CVD. However, in patients with a history of CVD, the current models that based on traditional risk factors provide limited power in predicting recurrent cardiovascular events. Several biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways have been identified to predict cardiovascular events, and the incorporation of biomarkers into risk assessment may contribute to enhance risk stratification in secondary prevention. This review focuses on biomarkers related to cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, including B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, adiponectin, adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein, heart-type fatty acid-binding protein, lipocalin-2, fibroblast growth factor 19 and 21, retinol-binding protein 4, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, and discusses the potential utility of these biomarkers in cardiovascular risk prediction among patients with CVD. Many of these biomarkers have shown promise in improving risk prediction of CVD. Further research is needed to assess the validity of biomarker and whether the strategy for incorporating biomarker into clinical practice may help to optimize decision-making and therapeutic management.

Mendelian Randomization Focused Analysis of Vitamin D on the Secondary Prevention of Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Experimental studies showed vitamin D (Vit-D) could promote vascular regeneration and repair. Prior randomized studies had focused mainly on primary prevention. Whether Vit-D protects against ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction recurrence among subjects with prior ischemic insults was unknown. Here, we dissected through Mendelian randomization any effect of Vit-D on the secondary prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction. METHODS: Based on a genetic risk score for Vit-D constructed from a derivation cohort sample (n=5331, 45% Vit-D deficient, 89% genotyped) via high-throughput exome-chip screening of 12 prior genome-wide association study-identified genetic variants of Vit-D mechanistic pathways (rs2060793, rs4588, and rs7041; F statistic, 73; P<0.001), we performed a focused analysis on prospective recurrence of myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke in an independent subsample with established ischemic disease (n=441, all with prior first ischemic event; follow-up duration, 41.6±14.3 years) under a 2-sample, individual-data, prospective Mendelian randomization approach. RESULTS: In the ischemic disease subsample, 11.1% (n=49/441) had developed recurrent ischemic stroke or MI and 13.3% (n=58/441) had developed recurrent or de novo ischemic stroke/MI. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that genetic risk score predicted improved event-free survival from recurrent ischemic stroke or MI (log-rank, 13.0; P=0.001). Cox regression revealed that genetic risk score independently predicted reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke or MI combined (hazards ratio, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.48-0.81]; P<0.001), after adjusted for potential confounders. Mendelian randomization supported that Vit-D is causally protective against the primary end points of recurrent ischemic stroke or MI (Wald estimate: odds ratio, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.35-0.81]) and any recurrent or de novo ischemic stroke/MI (odds ratio, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.42-0.91]) and recurrent MI alone (odds ratio, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.30-0.81]). CONCLUSIONS: Genetically predicted lowering in Vit-D level is causal for the recurrence of ischemic vascular events in persons with prior ischemic stroke or MI.

Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events in Chinese Patients With Ischemic Stroke With and Without Significant Atherosclerosis.

Background Recent trials have shown that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) <1.80 mmol/L (<70 mg/dL) is associated with a reduced risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in White patients with ischemic stroke with atherosclerosis. However, it remains uncertain whether the findings can be generalized to Asian patients, or that similar LDL-C targets should be adopted in patients with stroke without significant atherosclerosis. Methods and Results We performed a prospective cohort study and recruited consecutive Chinese patients with ischemic stroke with magnetic resonance angiography of the intra- and cervicocranial arteries performed at the University of Hong Kong between 2008 and 2014. Serial postevent LDL-C measurements were obtained. Risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with mean postevent LDL-C <1.80 versus ≥1.80 mmol/L, stratified by presence or absence of significant (≥50%) large-artery disease (LAD) and by ischemic stroke subtypes, were compared. Nine hundred four patients (mean age, 69±12 years; 60% men) were followed up for a mean 6.5±2.4 years (mean, 9±5 LDL-C readings per patient). Regardless of LAD status, patients with a mean postevent LDL-C <1.80 mmol/L were associated with a lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (with significant LAD: multivariable-adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.42-0.99; without significant LAD: subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.32-0.88) (both P<0.05). Similar findings were noted in patients with ischemic stroke attributable to large-artery atherosclerosis (subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.28-0.84) and in patients with other ischemic stroke subtypes (subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43-0.95) (both P<0.05). Conclusions A mean LDL-C <1.80 mmol/L was associated with a lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in Chinese patients with ischemic stroke with and without significant LAD. Further randomized trials to determine the optimal LDL-C cutoff in stroke patients without significant atherosclerosis are warranted.

Predictive value of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability for cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease with and without diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) has recently been shown to predict cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the predictive value of BPV for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: Patients with stable CAD were enrolled and monitored for new MACE. Visit-to-visit BPV was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of systolic and diastolic BP across clinic visits. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association of BPV with MACE. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess its predictive ability. RESULTS: Among 1140 Chinese patients with stable CAD, 192 (17%) experienced a new MACE. In multivariable analyses, the risk of MACE was significantly associated with CV of systolic BP (odds ratio [OR] for highest versus lowest quartile, 3.30; 95% CI 1.97-5.54), and diastolic BP (OR for highest versus lowest quartile, 2.39; 95% CI 1.39-4.11), after adjustment for variables of the risk factor model (age, gender, T2DM, hypertension, antihypertensive agents, number of BP measurements) and mean BP. The risk factor model had an AUC of 0.70 for prediction of MACE. Adding systolic/diastolic CV into the risk factor model with mean BP significantly increased the AUC to 0.73/0.72 (P = 0.002/0.007). In subgroup analyses, higher CV of systolic BP remained significantly associated with an increased risk for MACE in patients with and without T2DM, whereas the association of CV of diastolic BP with MACE was observed only in those without T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: Visit-to-visit variability of systolic BP and of diastolic BP was an independent predictor of new MACE and provided incremental prognostic value beyond mean BP and conventional risk factors in patients with stable CAD. The association of BPV in CAD patients without T2DM with subsequent risk for MACE was stronger than in those with T2DM.

Development of imaging-based risk scores for prediction of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients taking antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models. INTERPRETATION: The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.

Delays in Stroke Onset to Hospital Arrival Time During COVID-19.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic represents a global public health crisis, disrupting emergency healthcare services. We determined whether COVID-19 has resulted in delays in stroke presentation and affected the delivery of acute stroke services in a comprehensive stroke center in Hong Kong. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all patients with transient ischemic attack and stroke admitted via the acute stroke pathway of Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, during the first 60 days since the first diagnosed COVID-19 case in Hong Kong (COVID-19: January 23, 2020-March 24, 2020). We compared the stroke onset to hospital arrival (onset-to-door) time and timings of inpatient stroke pathways with patients admitted during the same period in 2019 (pre-COVID-19: January 23, 2019-March 24, 2019). RESULTS: Seventy-three patients in COVID-19 were compared with 89 patients in pre-COVID-19. There were no significant differences in age, sex, vascular risk factors, nor stroke severity between the 2 groups (P>0.05). The median stroke onset-to-door time was ≈1-hour longer in COVID-19 compared with pre-COVID-19 (154 versus 95 minutes, P=0.12), and the proportion of individuals with onset-to-door time within 4.5 hours was significantly lower (55% versus 72%, P=0.024). Significantly fewer cases of transient ischemic attack presented to the hospital during COVID-19 (4% versus 16%, P=0.016), despite no increase in referrals to the transient ischemic attack clinic. Inpatient stroke pathways and treatment time metrics nevertheless did not differ between the 2 groups (P>0.05 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: During the early containment phase of COVID-19, we noted a prolongation in stroke onset to hospital arrival time and a significant reduction in individuals arriving at the hospital within 4.5 hours and presenting with transient ischemic attack. Public education about stroke should continue to be reinforced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

High-sensitivity troponin I and B-type natriuretic peptide biomarkers for prediction of cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease with and without diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity troponin I (hs-Tnl) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) are promising prognostic markers for coronary artery disease (CAD). This prospective cohort study investigated whether a combination of these cardiac biomarkers with conventional risk factors would add incremental value for the prediction of secondary major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with CAD, with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: Baseline plasma level of hs-Tnl and BNP was measured in 2275 Chinese patients with stable CAD. Patients were monitored for new-onset of MACE over a median of 51 months. Cox proportional hazard model and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to assess the association of cardiac biomarkers with MACE and their predictive values in relationship with or without T2DM. RESULTS: During the follow up period 402 (18%) patients experienced a new-onset MACE with hs-Tnl and BNP level significantly higher than in those without MACE. In multivariable analyses, patients with elevated hs-Tnl (hazard ratio, 1.75 [95% CI 1.41-2.17]; P < 0.001) and BNP (hazard ratio, 1.42 [95% CI 1.15-1.75]; P = 0.001) were significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE after adjustment for variables of a risk factor model of age, sex, T2DM and hypertension. The risk factor model had an AUC of 0.64 for MACE prediction. The AUC significantly increased to 0.68 by the addition of hs-Tnl to the risk factor model. Subgroup analyses showed that hs-Tnl and BNP remained significant predictors of MACE in both patients with and without T2DM in multivariable models with higher risk of MACE evident in those without T2DM. Among patients without T2DM, addition of each biomarker yielded greater predictive accuracy than in T2DM patients, with AUC further increased to 0.75 when a combination of hs-Tnl and BNP was added to the risk factor model (age, sex and hypertension). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated hs-Tnl and BNP level are independent predictors of new-onset MACE in CAD patients, irrespective of diabetes status. Among CAD patients without T2DM, a combination of cardiac biomarkers hs-Tnl and BNP yield the greatest predictive value beyond conventional risk factors.

Prognostic implications of statin intolerance in stable coronary artery disease patients with different levels of high-sensitive troponin.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic implication of statin in tolerance (SI) in those with stable CAD remains unclear. We hypothesized that SI is of higher prognostic significance in stable CAD patients with elevated high-sensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI). METHODS: A total of 952 stable CAD patients from the prospective Hong Kong CAD study who had complete clinical data, biomarker measurements and who were prescribed statin therapy were studied. RESULTS: We identified 13 (1.4%) and 125 (13.1%) patients with complete and partial SI, respectively. At baseline, patients with SI were more likely to have diabetes mellitus and a higher hs-cTnI level, but no difference in LDL-C level compared with those without SI. After 51 months of follow-up, patients with SI had a higher mean LDL-C level than those without SI. A total of 148 (15.5%) patients developed major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Both SI (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.06-2.19, P = 0.02) and elevated hs-cTnI (HR 3.18, 95% CI 2.07-4.89, P < 0.01) were independent predictors of a MACE in patients with stable CAD. When stratified by hs-cTnI level, SI independently predicted MACE-free survival only in those with elevated hs-cTnI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01-2.24, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: SI independently predicted MACE in patients with stable CAD and high hs-cTnI, but not in those with low hs-cTnI. Hs-cTnI may be used to stratify stable CAD patients who have SI for intensive lipid-lowering therapy using non-statin agents.

Cerebral microbleeds and stroke risk after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral microbleeds are a neuroimaging biomarker of stroke risk. A crucial clinical question is whether cerebral microbleeds indicate patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack in whom the rate of future intracranial haemorrhage is likely to exceed that of recurrent ischaemic stroke when treated with antithrombotic drugs. We therefore aimed to establish whether a large burden of cerebral microbleeds or particular anatomical patterns of cerebral microbleeds can identify ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients at higher absolute risk of intracranial haemorrhage than ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies in adults with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cohorts were eligible for inclusion if they prospectively recruited adult participants with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack; included at least 50 participants; collected data on stroke events over at least 3 months follow-up; used an appropriate MRI sequence that is sensitive to magnetic susceptibility; and documented the number and anatomical distribution of cerebral microbleeds reliably using consensus criteria and validated scales. Our prespecified primary outcomes were a composite of any symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or ischaemic stroke, symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage, and symptomatic ischaemic stroke. We registered this study with the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews, number CRD42016036602. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1996, and Dec 1, 2018, we identified 344 studies. After exclusions for ineligibility or declined requests for inclusion, 20 322 patients from 38 cohorts (over 35 225 patient-years of follow-up; median 1·34 years [IQR 0·19-2·44]) were included in our analyses. The adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] comparing patients with cerebral microbleeds to those without was 1·35 (95% CI 1·20-1·50) for the composite outcome of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke; 2·45 (1·82-3·29) for intracranial haemorrhage and 1·23 (1·08-1·40) for ischaemic stroke. The aHR increased with increasing cerebral microbleed burden for intracranial haemorrhage but this effect was less marked for ischaemic stroke (for five or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 4·55 [95% CI 3·08-6·72] for intracranial haemorrhage vs 1·47 [1·19-1·80] for ischaemic stroke; for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 5·52 [3·36-9·05] vs 1·43 [1·07-1·91]; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, aHR 8·61 [4·69-15·81] vs 1·86 [1·23-1·82]). However, irrespective of cerebral microbleed anatomical distribution or burden, the rate of ischaemic stroke exceeded that of intracranial haemorrhage (for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, 64 ischaemic strokes [95% CI 48-84] per 1000 patient-years vs 27 intracranial haemorrhages [17-41] per 1000 patient-years; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, 73 ischaemic strokes [46-108] per 1000 patient-years vs 39 intracranial haemorrhages [21-67] per 1000 patient-years). INTERPRETATION: In patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleeds are associated with a greater relative hazard (aHR) for subsequent intracranial haemorrhage than for ischaemic stroke, but the absolute risk of ischaemic stroke is higher than that of intracranial haemorrhage, regardless of cerebral microbleed presence, antomical distribution, or burden. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Stroke Association.

Age-Biomarkers-Clinical Risk Factors for Prediction of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

Objective- In patients with stable coronary artery disease, conventional risk factors provide limited incremental predictive value for cardiovascular events. We sought to investigate whether a panel of cardiometabolic biomarkers alone or combined with conventional risk factors would exhibit incremental value in the prediction of cardiovascular events. Approach and Results- In the discovery cohort, we measured serum adiponectin, A-FABP (adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein), lipocalin-2, FGF (fibroblast growth factor)-19 and 21, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and retinol-binding protein-4 in 1166 Chinese coronary artery disease patients. After a median follow-up of 35 months, 170 patients developed new-onset major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). In the model with age ≥65 years and conventional risk factors, area under the curve for predicting MACE was 0.68. Addition of lipocalin-2 to the age-clinical risk factor model improved predictive accuracy (area under the curve=0.73). Area under the curve further increased to 0.75 when a combination of lipocalin-2, A-FABP, and FGF-19 was added to yield age-biomarkers-clinical risk factor model. The adjusted hazard ratio on MACEs for lipocalin-2, A-FABP, and FGF-19 levels above optimal cutoffs were 2.23 (95% CI, 1.62-3.08), 1.99 (95% CI, 1.43-2.76), and 1.65 (95% CI, 1.15-2.35), respectively. In the validation cohort of 1262 coronary artery disease patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the age-biomarkers-clinical risk factor model was confirmed to provide good discrimination and calibration over the conventional risk factor alone for prediction of MACE. Conclusions- A combination of the 3 biomarkers, lipocalin-2, A-FABP, and FGF-19, with clinical risk factors to yield the age-biomarkers-clinical risk factor model provides an optimal and validated prediction of new-onset MACE in patients with stable coronary artery disease.