Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960-2010.

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level. Results indicate that educational expansion has been a structural driver of fertility postponement, whereas the procyclical effect of economic cycles accounts for accelerations and decelerations of fertility postponement throughout the period considered. Microsimulation of macro-level fertility trends indicates that individual-based models predict the annual proportion of women entering parenthood and the mean age at first birth with average errors of prediction below 1 per cent and 3 months, respectively, while also showing strong correlations between first differences of observed and simulated time-series. Because the extended observation window encompasses several severe recessions, we test whether the association between economic cycles and entry into parenthood has changed over time and how this affected macro-level trends, discussing several mechanisms that may account for such temporal variation.

A qualitative life course perspective on covid-lockdowns and couples' division of unpaid labour.

Covid-19 lockdowns in many countries were characterised by increases in unpaid labour (e.g. home-schooling), as well as changing working conditions (e.g. remote work). Consequently, a large body of research assesses changes in dual earner couples' gender division of unpaid labour. However, despite the increasingly detailed picture of households' division of labour before and after the onset of the pandemic, it remains unclear how dual earner parents themselves perceive their decision-making regarding labour divisions during lockdowns. Consequently, using data from 31 individual in-depth interviews in Belgium, this study adopts a biographical-interpretative method to assess variation in narratives regarding the household division of labour before and during lockdown. Results indicate five ideal type narratives which vary in the extent to which lockdown divisions of unpaid labour exhibit path-dependency or constitute new gender dynamics, but also regarding the balance between individual agency and societal factors as determinants of labour divisions. Taken together, narratives discussing new gender dynamics during lockdowns put forward sector-specific changes in working hours and remote work as external and exogenous determinants. However, most importantly, findings indicate that household decision-making regarding unpaid labour during lockdowns is mostly perceived as path-dependent on pre-covid decision-making (e.g. gender specialisation) in the context of structural (e.g. gendered leave schemes) and normative boundaries (e.g. gendered parenting norms). Such path-dependencies in the decision-making underlying quantitatively identifiable divisions of unpaid labour during lockdowns are likely to be neglected in the absence of a qualitative life course perspective.

The gender division of paid work over family formation: Variation by couples' migration background.

Although the gender gap in labour force participation has narrowed considerably in many European countries, life course scholars have shown that the transition to parenthood exacerbates gender inequality in couples' division of paid work. Hitherto, variation by migration background has received limited attention in research on the effect of parenthood on couples' gender division of paid work. This is remarkable given that such heterogeneity is theoretically informative on differential interconnectedness of life course events, but may also inform policy makers on the life course transitions that induce migrant-native differentials in women's labour force participation. This study adopts a life course perspective and uses longitudinal microdata from Belgian social security registers to examine variation in couples' gender division of paid work around family formation by migration background. Taking into account couples' migration background - by considering the origin group and migrant generation of both partners - we identify four patterns of gender dynamics around family formation in couples where at least one partner is of migrant origin. These four patterns emerge from (dis)similarities with native couples with respect to their pre-birth division of paid work on the one hand and their changes in this division around family formation on the other hand. These results highlight that combining an account of couples' division of paid work prior to the birth of a first child with a perspective focussing on how the division of paid work changes around family formation is necessary for a thorough understanding of variation by migration background.

Abortion care in a pandemic: an analysis of the number and social profile of people requesting and receiving abortion care during the first COVID-19 lockdown (March 16 to June 14, 2020) in Flanders, Belgium.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and the national COVID-19 measures might have increased potential barriers to abortion care and created new ones, especially for vulnerable groups. This study documents the impact of the pandemic and the lockdown measures on the profile of people going through the abortion process. METHODS: Using anonymized patient records from a Belgian abortion centre, we first compared the number of abortion requests and procedures during the first COVID-19 lockdown with the same months in the five preceding years. Next, we analysed the social profile of people requesting an abortion in those two time periods and looked at the number of long-acting reversible contraceptive devices (LARC) placed after curettage. RESULTS: The abortion centre saw a drop in the number of abortion requests during the lockdown. This difference was more pronounced for people in paid employment and people using (modern) contraception. People were also more likely to request an abortion earlier in their pregnancy. The drop in abortion procedures and LARC's placed after curettage was proportionate to the drop in abortion requests and did not differ according to clients' characteristics. CONCLUSION: Questions arose concerning the potential selectivity with which COVID-19 influenced the need for abortion care and accessibility to services. Although there was a general drop in abortion requests and procedures during the first COVID-19 lockdown in the studied abortion centre, our results suggest that the profile of people requesting and receiving an abortion did only slightly change during the lockdown, and did not affect vulnerable groups visibly harder.

What are the social correlates of subsequent abortions in Flanders, Belgium?

OBJECTIVE: To study whether the social correlates of subsequent abortions vary depending on the order of the abortion. Methodology: Drawing upon the Flemish abortion centres' anonymized patient records (2010-2019), discrete-time hazard models were used to examine whether individual abortion experiences across women's reproductive life course have different social correlates. RESULTS: Overall, women who were in their twenties, of foreign origin, single, had non-tertiary education, were not in paid employment, had children, did not (consistently and without errors) use contraception and had a previous abortion through medication, had an elevated probability to experience subsequent abortions. While single women and women with a vulnerable socioeconomic status were more likely to have a second or third abortion, this difference is no longer prevalent when considering higher-order abortions. The hazard for higher-order abortions was more pronounced in women with a migration background, regardless of the order considered. Contraceptive use was unrelated to fourth or higher-order abortions. CONCLUSION: Using discrete-time hazard models, we unpack individual abortion experiences across women's reproductive life courses. By studying the transitions into different orders of subsequent abortions separately, we provide a more detailed understanding of risk factors compared to other European studies. The social correlates vary by the order considered: A certain profile emerges for women who have a second or third abortion, but disintegrates when considering higher-order abortions. This knowledge enables clinicians and policymakers to better understand women who experience subsequent abortions and to tailor services best suited to their needs.

Local Childcare Availability and Dual-Earner Fertility: Variation in Childcare Coverage and Birth Hazards Over Place and Time.

The theoretically well-grounded hypothesis that the availability of formal childcare has a positive impact on childbearing in the developed world has been part of the population literature for a long time. Whereas the participation of women in the labour force created a tension between work and family life, the increasing availability of formal childcare in many developed countries is assumed to reconcile these two life domains due to lower opportunity costs and compatible mother and worker roles. However, previous empirical studies on the association between childcare availability and fertility exhibit ambiguous results and considerable variation in the methods applied. This study assesses the childcare-fertility hypothesis for Belgium, a consistently top-ranked country concerning formal childcare coverage that also exhibits considerable variation within the country. Using detailed longitudinal census and register data for the 2000s combined with childcare coverage rates for 588 municipalities and allowing for the endogenous nature of formal childcare and selective migration, our findings indicate clear and substantial positive effects of local formal childcare provision on birth hazards, especially when considering the transition to parenthood. In addition, this article quantifies the impact of local formal childcare availability on fertility at the aggregate level and shows that in the context of low and lowest-low fertility levels in the developed world, the continued extension of formal childcare services can be a fruitful tool to stimulate childbearing among dual-earner couples.

Social differentials in the effect of formal childcare on the transition to parenthood?: An assessment of varying effects by education, working hours and migration background.

Although the hypothesis that formal childcare reconciles work and family life - and thus stimulates the transition to parenthood - is theoretically well-grounded and partially empirically supported, available literature has hitherto insufficiently acknowledged differential effects by population subgroups. This is remarkable as population subgroups are likely to exhibit different labour market opportunities and opportunity costs of childbearing, varying attitudes toward work-family combination and the use of formal childcare, and differential institutional knowledge with respect to formal childcare. Using unique register-data for the complete residential Belgian population at the turn of the century, this study applies random and fixed effects hazard models to assess varying associations between local childcare availability and dual earner fertility by level of education, working hours and migration background. Results indicate that lagged variation in childcare coverage across and within municipalities over time is positively associated to first birth hazards for all types of dual earner couples. Whereas varying effects by level of education indicate social differentiation in the sense that the positive impact of local childcare coverage is stronger for highly educated couples, differences by working hours and migration background are more limited and insignificant. The Belgian context provides an excellent laboratory to address this topic for two reasons. First, as a result of its top-ranked position with respect to formal childcare during the 2000s, the results are of interest to countries with lower formal childcare coverage. Second, Belgium exhibits considerable social differentials in labour market opportunities, the uptake and benefits of formal childcare.

Employment After Parenthood: Women of Migrant Origin and Natives Compared.

Motherhood negatively affects female employment in majority populations across Europe. Although employment levels are particularly low among women of migrant origin, little is known about the motherhood-employment link in migrant populations. This paper investigates whether family formation differentially affects the labour market position of migrant women and their descendants compared to natives. Using longitudinal microdata from the Belgian social security registers, 12,167 women are followed from 12 months before until 48 months after the birth of their first child for the period 1999-2010. Levels of activity (versus inactivity), employment (versus unemployment) and full-time employment (versus part-time employment) are compared between natives and first- and second-generation women of Southern European, Eastern European, Turkish and Moroccan origin. We find that activity and employment levels decrease to a larger extent following the transition to parenthood among women of migrant origin than among natives. With respect to activity levels, differences between second-generation women and natives are largely explained by socio-demographic and pre-birth job characteristics, while differences between first-generation women and natives are not, suggesting that other factors such as tied migration patterns determine labour market attachment among first-generation mothers. With respect to employment levels, unemployment is increasing more among women of migrant origin of both generations than among natives, also when controlling for background characteristics, which signals differential access to stable job positions as well as to family policies. In sum, the results draw attention to the challenge that parenthood creates for mothers of migrant origin in terms of retaining and gaining employment, but also to the role of labour market entry and early career positions.

Educational differentials in cohabitors' marriage intentions at different childbearing stages in seven European countries.

Several studies have looked into the socio-economic gradients of cohabitation and non-marital fertility. According to the theory of the Second Demographic Transition, highly educated individuals can be considered as forerunners in the Western European spread of non-marital family forms after the 1970s. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), however, research has provided evidence for a Pattern of Disadvantage where those with the lowest education have been the most likely to adopt such family forms. Hitherto, few studies have considered the educational gradient of the intentions underlying these behaviors. This contribution uses information on marriage and fertility intentions from the Generations and Gender Surveys for seven European countries to assess educational differentials. In Western Europe we observe no strong educational gradients in marriage intentions at any childbearing stage (before, during or following). In CEE countries, however, less educated cohabitors more frequently choose for cohabitation during childbearing.

Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005.

OBJECTIVES: The economic crisis that emerged after 2008 caused speculation about further postponement of fertility and a recession-induced baby-bust in countries affected by the economic downturn. This paper aims to disentangle short-term and long-term effects of economic context on entry into parenthood and explores variation of postponement and recuperation by age, gender, educational level and welfare state context. METHODS: Random-effects complementary log-log models including macro-level indicators are used to analyse longitudinal microdata on 12,121 first births to 20,736 individuals observed between 1970 and 2005. RESULTS: Adverse economic conditions and high unemployment significantly reduce first birth hazards among men and women below age 30, particularly among the higher educated. After age 30 economic context continues to affect first birth hazards of men, but not for women. Recuperation of fertility is further associated with access to labour markets and entry into cohabiting unions. CONCLUSIONS: The continuing postponement of first births has clear medical consequences and implications for health policies. Preventive policies should take access to labour markets for younger generations into account as an important factor driving postponement.

Lack of hippocampal volume change in long-term heavy cannabis users.

The effects of cannabis smoking on the morphology of the hippocampus are still unclear, especially because previous human studies have examined primarily younger, shorter-term users. We used magnetic resonance imaging to investigate these effects in a group of 22 older, long-term cannabis users (reporting a mean [SD] of 20,100 [13,900] lifetime episodes of smoking) and 26 comparison subjects with no history of cannabis abuse or dependence. When compared to control subjects, smokers displayed no significant adjusted differences in volumes of gray matter, white matter, cerebrospinal fluid, or left and right hippocampus. Moreover, hippocampal volume in cannabis users was not associated with age of onset of use not total lifetime episodes of use. These findings are consistent with recent literature suggesting that cannabis use is not associated with structural changes within the brain as a whole or the hippocampus in particular.