Towards a future regulatory framework for chemicals in the European Union - Chemicals 2.0.

The body of EU chemicals legislation has evolved since the 1960s, producing the largest knowledge base on chemicals worldwide. Like any evolving system, however, it has become increasingly diverse and complex, resulting in inefficiencies and potential inconsistencies. In the light of the EU Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability, it is therefore timely and reasonable to consider how aspects of the system could be simplified and streamlined, without losing the hard-earned benefits to human health and the environment. In this commentary, we propose a conceptual framework that could be the basis of Chemicals 2.0 - a future safety assessment and management approach that is based on the application of New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), mechanistic reasoning and cost-benefit considerations. Chemicals 2.0 is designed to be a more efficient and more effective approach for assessing chemicals, and to comply with the EU goal to completely replace animal testing, in line with Directive 2010/63/EU. We propose five design criteria for Chemicals 2.0 to define what the future system should achieve. The approach is centered on a classification matrix in which NAMs for toxicodynamics and toxicokinetics are used to classify chemicals according to their level of concern. An important principle is the need to ensure an equivalent, or higher, protection level.

Use of New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) in regulatory decisions for chemical safety: Report from an EPAA Deep Dive Workshop.

New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) are considered to include any in vitro, in silico or chemistry-based method, as well as the strategies to implement them, that may provide information that could inform chemical safety assessment. Current chemical legislation in the European Union is limited in its acceptance of the widespread use of NAMs. The European Partnership for Alternative Approaches to Animal Testing (EPAA) therefore convened a 'Deep Dive Workshop' to explore the use of NAMs in chemical safety assessment, the aim of which was to support regulatory decisions, whilst intending to protect human health. The workshop recognised that NAMs are currently used in many industrial sectors, with some considered as fit for regulatory purpose. Moreover, the workshop identified key discussion points that can be addressed to increase the use and regulatory acceptance of NAMs. These are based on the changes needed in frameworks for regulatory requirements and the essential needs in education, training and greater stakeholder engagement as well the gaps in the scientific basis of NAMs.

A scheme to evaluate structural alerts to predict toxicity - Assessing confidence by characterising uncertainties.

Structure-activity relationships (SARs) in toxicology have enabled the formation of structural rules which, when coded as structural alerts, are essential tools in in silico toxicology. Whilst other in silico methods have approaches for their evaluation, there is no formal process to assess the confidence that may be associated with a structural alert. This investigation proposes twelve criteria to assess the uncertainty associated with structural alerts, allowing for an assessment of confidence. The criteria are based around the stated purpose, description of the chemistry, toxicology and mechanism, performance and coverage, as well as corroborating and supporting evidence of the alert. Alerts can be given a confidence assessment and score, enabling the identification of areas where more information may be beneficial. The scheme to evaluate structural alerts was placed in the context of various use cases for industrial and regulatory applications. The analysis of alerts, and consideration of the evaluation scheme, identifies the different characteristics an alert may have, such as being highly specific or generic. These characteristics may determine when an alert can be used for specific uses such as identification of analogues for read-across or hazard identification.

A matter of trust: Learning lessons about causality will make qAOPs credible.

Toxicology in the 21st Century has seen a shift from chemical risk assessment based on traditional animal tests, identifying apical endpoints and doses that are "safe", to the prospect of Next Generation Risk Assessment based on non-animal methods. Increasingly, large and high throughput in vitro datasets are being generated and exploited to develop computational models. This is accompanied by an increased use of machine learning approaches in the model building process. A potential problem, however, is that such models, while robust and predictive, may still lack credibility from the perspective of the end-user. In this commentary, we argue that the science of causal inference and reasoning, as proposed by Judea Pearl, will facilitate the development, use and acceptance of quantitative AOP models. Our hope is that by importing established concepts of causality from outside the field of toxicology, we can be "constructively disruptive" to the current toxicological paradigm, using the "Causal Revolution" to bring about a "Toxicological Revolution" more rapidly.

Probabilistic modelling of developmental neurotoxicity based on a simplified adverse outcome pathway network.

In a century where toxicology and chemical risk assessment are embracing alternative methods to animal testing, there is an opportunity to understand the causal factors of neurodevelopmental disorders such as learning and memory disabilities in children, as a foundation to predict adverse effects. New testing paradigms, along with the advances in probabilistic modelling, can help with the formulation of mechanistically-driven hypotheses on how exposure to environmental chemicals could potentially lead to developmental neurotoxicity (DNT). This investigation aimed to develop a Bayesian hierarchical model of a simplified AOP network for DNT. The model predicted the probability that a compound induces each of three selected common key events (CKEs) of the simplified AOP network and the adverse outcome (AO) of DNT, taking into account correlations and causal relations informed by the key event relationships (KERs). A dataset of 88 compounds representing pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and pesticides was compiled including physicochemical properties as well as in silico and in vitro information. The Bayesian model was able to predict DNT potential with an accuracy of 76%, classifying the compounds into low, medium or high probability classes. The modelling workflow achieved three further goals: it dealt with missing values; accommodated unbalanced and correlated data; and followed the structure of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to simulate the simplified AOP network. Overall, the model demonstrated the utility of Bayesian hierarchical modelling for the development of quantitative AOP (qAOP) models and for informing the use of new approach methodologies (NAMs) in chemical risk assessment.

In Silico Models for Predicting Acute Systemic Toxicity.

In this chapter, we give a brief overview of the regulatory requirements for acute systemic toxicity information in the European Union, and we review structure-based computational models that are available and potentially useful in the assessment of acute systemic toxicity. Emphasis is placed on quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models implemented by means of a range of software tools. The most recently published literature models for acute systemic toxicity are also discussed, and perspectives for future developments in this field are offered.

The role of validation in establishing the scientific credibility of predictive toxicology approaches intended for regulatory application.

New approaches in toxicology based on in vitro methods and computational modelling offer considerable potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of chemical hazard and risk assessment in a variety of regulatory contexts. However, this presents challenges both for developers and regulatory assessors because often these two communities do not share the same level of confidence in a new approach. To address this challenge, various assessment frameworks have been developed over the past 20 years with the aim of creating harmonised and systematic approaches for evaluating new methods. These frameworks typically focus on specific methodologies and technologies, which has proven useful for establishing the validity and credibility of individual methods. However, given the increasing need to compare methods and combine their use in integrated assessment strategies, the multiplicity of frameworks is arguably becoming a barrier to their acceptance. In this commentary, we explore the concepts of model validity and credibility, and we illustrate how a set of seven credibility factors provides a method-agnostic means of comparing different kinds of predictive toxicology approaches. It is hoped that this will facilitate communication and cross-disciplinarity among method developers and users, with the ultimate aim of increasing the acceptance and use of predictive approaches in toxicology.

Quantitative adverse outcome pathway (qAOP) models for toxicity prediction.

The quantitative adverse outcome pathway (qAOP) concept is gaining interest due to its potential regulatory applications in chemical risk assessment. Even though an increasing number of qAOP models are being proposed as computational predictive tools, there is no framework to guide their development and assessment. As such, the objectives of this review were to: (i) analyse the definitions of qAOPs published in the scientific literature, (ii) define a set of common features of existing qAOP models derived from the published definitions, and (iii) identify and assess the existing published qAOP models and associated software tools. As a result, five probabilistic qAOPs and ten mechanistic qAOPs were evaluated against the common features. The review offers an overview of how the qAOP concept has advanced and how it can aid toxicity assessment in the future. Further efforts are required to achieve validation, harmonisation and regulatory acceptance of qAOP models.

Computational modelling for the sustainable management of chemicals.

This commentary explores the contribution of computational toxicology to chemical safety assessment in the context of the broad policy challenges faced by the European Union. The state of the European Environment is considered from the perspective of chemical contributions to the burden of disease and ecosystem damage. This sets the scene for highlighting research and innovation opportunities to further develop computational approaches for assessing the human health and environmental effects of chemicals. Emphasis is placed on focus topics that are particularly relevant to the political priorities of the new European Commission. In particular, two of the six priorities are discussed - "The European Green Deal" and "A Europe fit for a Digital Age". The former includes the zero pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment, including the need to develop safe and sustainable chemicals, while the latter includes the challenges and opportunities posed by Artificial Intelligence. This commentary is based on a presentation given at the 19th meeting of The Italian Society of Toxicology (SITOX), held in Bologna, Italy, in February 2020.

Development and analysis of an adverse outcome pathway network for human neurotoxicity.

An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) network is an attempt to represent the complexity of systems toxicology. This study illustrates how an AOP network can be derived and analysed in terms of its topological features to guide research and support chemical risk assessment. A four-step workflow describing general design principles and applied design principles was established and implemented. An AOP network linking nine linear AOPs was mapped and made available in AOPXplorer. The resultant AOP network was modelled and analysed in terms of its topological features, including level of degree, eccentricity and betweenness centrality. Several well-connected KEs were identified, and cell injury/death was established as the most hyperlinked KE across the network. The derived network expands the utility of linear AOPs to better understand signalling pathways involved in developmental and adult/ageing neurotoxicity. The results provide a solid basis to guide the development of in vitro test method batteries, as well as further quantitative modelling of key events (KEs) and key event relationships (KERs) in the AOP network, with an eventual aim to support hazard characterisation and chemical risk assessment.

Unlocking the potential of in silico chemical safety assessment - A report on a cross-sector symposium on current opportunities and future challenges.

In silico chemical safety assessment can support the evaluation of hazard and risk following potential exposure to a substance. A symposium identified a number of opportunities and challenges to implement in silico methods, such as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and read-across, to assess the potential harm of a substance in a variety of exposure scenarios, e.g. pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and industrial chemicals. To initiate the process of in silico safety assessment, clear and unambiguous problem formulation is required to provide the context for these methods. These approaches must be built on data of defined quality, while acknowledging the possibility of novel data resources tapping into on-going progress with data sharing. Models need to be developed that cover appropriate toxicity and kinetic endpoints, and that are documented appropriately with defined uncertainties. The application and implementation of in silico models in chemical safety requires a flexible technological framework that enables the integration of multiple strands of data and evidence. The findings of the symposium allowed for the identification of priorities to progress in silico chemical safety assessment towards the animal-free assessment of chemicals.

Regulatory assessment and risk management of chemical mixtures: challenges and ways forward.

This paper summarizes current challenges, the potential use of novel scientific methodologies, and ways forward in the risk assessment and risk management of mixtures. Generally, methodologies to address mixtures have been agreed; however, there are still several data and methodological gaps to be addressed. New approach methodologies can support the filling of knowledge gaps on the toxicity and mode(s) of action of individual chemicals. (Bio)Monitoring, modeling, and better data sharing will support the derivation of more realistic co-exposure scenarios. As knowledge and data gaps often hamper an in-depth assessment of specific chemical mixtures, the option of taking account of possible mixture effects in single substance risk assessments is briefly discussed. To allow risk managers to take informed decisions, transparent documentation of assumptions and related uncertainties is recommended indicating the potential impact on the assessment. Considering the large number of possible combinations of chemicals in mixtures, prioritization is needed, so that actions first address mixtures of highest concern and chemicals that drive the mixture risk. As chemicals with different applications and regulated separately might lead to similar toxicological effects, it is important to consider chemical mixtures across legislative sectors.

Membrane transporter data to support kinetically-informed chemical risk assessment using non-animal methods: Scientific and regulatory perspectives.

Humans are continuously exposed to low levels of thousands of industrial chemicals, most of which are poorly characterised in terms of their potential toxicity. The new paradigm in chemical risk assessment (CRA) aims to rely on animal-free testing, with kinetics being a key determinant of toxicity when moving from traditional animal studies to integrated in vitro-in silico approaches. In a kinetically informed CRA, membrane transporters, which have been intensively studied during drug development, are an essential piece of information. However, how existing knowledge on transporters gained in the drug field can be applied to CRA is not yet fully understood. This review outlines the opportunities, challenges and existing tools for investigating chemical-transporter interactions in kinetically informed CRA without animal studies. Various environmental chemicals acting as substrates, inhibitors or modulators of transporter activity or expression have been shown to impact TK, just as drugs do. However, because pollutant concentrations are often lower in humans than drugs and because exposure levels and internal chemical doses are not usually known in contrast to drugs, new approaches are required to translate transporter data and reasoning from the drug sector to CRA. Here, the generation of in vitro chemical-transporter interaction data and the development of transporter databases and classification systems trained on chemical datasets (and not only drugs) are proposed. Furtheremore, improving the use of human biomonitoring data to evaluate the in vitro-in silico transporter-related predicted values and developing means to assess uncertainties could also lead to increase confidence of scientists and regulators in animal-free CRA. Finally, a systematic characterisation of the transportome (quantitative monitoring of transporter abundance, activity and maintenance over time) would reinforce confidence in the use of experimental transporter/barrier systems as well as in established cell-based toxicological assays currently used for CRA.

Capturing the applicability of in vitro-in silico membrane transporter data in chemical risk assessment and biomedical research.

Costs, scientific and ethical concerns related to animal tests for regulatory decision-making have stimulated the development of alternative methods. When applying alternative approaches, kinetics have been identified as a key element to consider. Membrane transporters affect the kinetic processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) of various compounds, such as drugs or environmental chemicals. Therefore, pharmaceutical scientists have intensively studied transporters impacting drug efficacy and safety. Besides pharmacokinetics, transporters are considered as major determinant of toxicokinetics, potentially representing an essential piece of information in chemical risk assessment. To capture the applicability of transporter data for kinetic-based risk assessment in non-pharmaceutical sectors, the EU Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM) created a survey with a view of identifying the improvements needed when using in vitro and in silico methods. Seventy-three participants, from different sectors and with various kinds of expertise, completed the survey. The results revealed that transporters are investigated mainly during drug development, but also for risk assessment purposes of food and feed contaminants, industrial chemicals, cosmetics, nanomaterials and in the context of environmental toxicology, by applying both in vitro and in silico tools. However, to rely only on alternative methods for chemical risk assessment, it is critical that the data generated by in vitro and in silico methods are scientific integer, reproducible and of high quality so that they are trusted by decision makers and used by industry. In line, the respondents identified various challenges related to the interpretation and use of transporter data from non-animal methods. Overall, it was determined that a combined mechanistically-anchored in vitro-in silico approach, validated against available human data, would gain confidence in using transporter data within an animal-free risk assessment paradigm. Finally, respondents involved primarily in fundamental research expressed lower confidence in non-animal studies to unravel complex transporter mechanisms.

Virtual Cell Based Assay simulations of intra-mitochondrial concentrations in hepatocytes and cardiomyocytes.

In order to replace the use of animals in toxicity testing, there is a need to predict human in vivo toxic doses from concentrations that cause adverse effects in in vitro test systems. The virtual cell based assay (VCBA) has been developed to simulate intracellular concentrations as a function of time, and can be used to interpret in vitro concentration-response curves. In this study we refine and extend the VCBA model by including additional target-organ cell models and by simulating the fate and effects of chemicals at the organelle level. In particular, we describe the extension of the original VCBA to simulate chemical fate in liver (HepaRG) cells and cardiomyocytes (ICell cardiomyocytes), and we explore the effects of chemicals at the mitochondrial level. This includes a comparison of: a) in vitro results on cell viability and mitochondrial membrane potential (mmp) from two cell models (HepaRG cells and ICell cardiomyocytes); and b) VCBA simulations, including the cell and mitochondrial compartment, simulating the mmp for both cell types. This proof of concept study illustrates how the relationship between intra cellular, intra mitochondrial concentration, mmp and cell toxicity can be obtained by using the VCBA.

From in vitro to in vivo: Integration of the virtual cell based assay with physiologically based kinetic modelling.

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models and the virtual cell based assay can be linked to form so called physiologically based dynamic (PBD) models. This study illustrates the development and application of a PBK model for prediction of estragole-induced DNA adduct formation and hepatotoxicity in humans. To address the hepatotoxicity, HepaRG cells were used as a surrogate for liver cells, with cell viability being used as the in vitro toxicological endpoint. Information on DNA adduct formation was taken from the literature. Since estragole induced cell damage is not directly caused by the parent compound, but by a reactive metabolite, information on the metabolic pathway was incorporated into the model. In addition, a user-friendly tool was developed by implementing the PBK/D model into a KNIME workflow. This workflow can be used to perform in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and forward as backward dosimetry in support of chemical risk assessment.

Quantitative structure-skin permeability relationships.

This paper reviews in silico models currently available for the prediction of skin permeability. A comprehensive discussion on the developed methods is presented, focusing on quantitative structure-permeability relationships. In addition, the mechanistic models and comparative studies that analyse different models are discussed. Limitations and strengths of the different approaches are highlighted together with the emergent issues and perspectives.

Automated workflows for modelling chemical fate, kinetics and toxicity.

Automation is universal in today's society, from operating equipment such as machinery, in factory processes, to self-parking automobile systems. While these examples show the efficiency and effectiveness of automated mechanical processes, automated procedures that support the chemical risk assessment process are still in their infancy. Future human safety assessments will rely increasingly on the use of automated models, such as physiologically based kinetic (PBK) and dynamic models and the virtual cell based assay (VCBA). These biologically-based models will be coupled with chemistry-based prediction models that also automate the generation of key input parameters such as physicochemical properties. The development of automated software tools is an important step in harmonising and expediting the chemical safety assessment process. In this study, we illustrate how the KNIME Analytics Platform can be used to provide a user-friendly graphical interface for these biokinetic models, such as PBK models and VCBA, which simulates the fate of chemicals in vivo within the body and in vitro test systems respectively.

The application of molecular modelling in the safety assessment of chemicals: A case study on ligand-dependent PPARγ dysregulation.

The aim of this paper was to provide a proof of concept demonstrating that molecular modelling methodologies can be employed as a part of an integrated strategy to support toxicity prediction consistent with the mode of action/adverse outcome pathway (MoA/AOP) framework. To illustrate the role of molecular modelling in predictive toxicology, a case study was undertaken in which molecular modelling methodologies were employed to predict the activation of the peroxisome proliferator-activated nuclear receptor γ (PPARγ) as a potential molecular initiating event (MIE) for liver steatosis. A stepwise procedure combining different in silico approaches (virtual screening based on docking and pharmacophore filtering, and molecular field analysis) was developed to screen for PPARγ full agonists and to predict their transactivation activity (EC50). The performance metrics of the classification model to predict PPARγ full agonists were balanced accuracy=81%, sensitivity=85% and specificity=76%. The 3D QSAR model developed to predict EC50 of PPARγ full agonists had the following statistical parameters: q2cv=0.610, Nopt=7, SEPcv=0.505, r2pr=0.552. To support the linkage of PPARγ agonism predictions to prosteatotic potential, molecular modelling was combined with independently performed mechanistic mining of available in vivo toxicity data followed by ToxPrint chemotypes analysis. The approaches investigated demonstrated a potential to predict the MIE, to facilitate the process of MoA/AOP elaboration, to increase the scientific confidence in AOP, and to become a basis for 3D chemotype development.

Validation of Computational Methods.

In this chapter, we provide an overview of how (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships, (Q)SARs, are validated and applied for regulatory purposes. We outline how chemical categories are derived to facilitate endpoint specific read-across using tools such as the OECD QSAR Toolbox and discuss some of the current difficulties in addressing the residual uncertainties of read-across. Finally we put forward a perspective of how non-testing approaches may evolve in light of the advances in new and emerging technologies and how these fit within the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework.