Global mangrove soil organic carbon stocks dataset at 30 m resolution for the year 2020 based on spatiotemporal predictive machine learning.

This dataset presents global soil organic carbon stocks in mangrove forests at 30 m resolution, predicted for 2020. We used spatiotemporal ensemble machine learning to produce predictions of soil organic carbon content and bulk density (BD) to 1 m soil depth, which were then aggregated to calculate soil organic carbon stocks. This was done by using training data points of both SOC (%) and BD in mangroves from a global dataset and from recently published studies, and globally consistent predictive covariate layers. A total of 10,331 soil samples were validated to have SOC (%) measurements and were used for predictive soil mapping. We used time-series remote sensing data specific to time periods when the training data were sampled, as well as long-term (static) layers to train an ensemble of machine learning model. Ensemble models were used to improve performance, robustness and unbiasedness as opposed to just using one learner. In addition, we performed spatial cross-validation by using spatial blocking of training data points to assess model performance. We predicted SOC stocks for the 2020 time period and applied them to a 2020 mangrove extent map, presenting both mean predictions and prediction intervals to represent the uncertainty around our predictions. Predictions are available for download under CC-BY license from 10.5281/zenodo.7729491 and also as Cloud-Optimized GeoTIFFs (global mosaics).

Co-occurrence of biodiversity, carbon storage, coastal protection, and fish and invertebrate production to inform global mangrove conservation planning.

Mangrove forests support unique biodiversity and provide a suite of ecosystem services (ES) that benefit people. Decades of continual mangrove loss and degradation have necessitated global efforts to protect and restore this important ecosystem. Generating and evaluating asset maps of biodiversity and ES is an important precursor to identifying locations that can deliver conservation outcomes across varying scales, such as maximising the co-occurrence of specific ES. We bring together global datasets on mangrove-affiliated biodiversity, carbon stocks, fish and invertebrate production, and coastal protection to provide insight into potential trade-offs, synergies and opportunities from mangrove conservation. We map opportunities where high ES provision co-occurs with these areas that could be leveraged in conservation planning, and identify potential high-value opportunities for single ES that might otherwise be missed with a biodiversity focus. Hotspots of single ES, co-occurrence of multiple ES, and opportunities to simultaneously leverage biodiversity and ES occurred throughout the world. For example, efforts that focus on conserving or restoring mangroves to store carbon can be targed to deliver multiple ES benefits. Some nations, such as Vietnam, Oman, Ecuador and China, showed consistent (although not necessarily strong) correlations between ES pairs. A lack of clear or consistent spatial trends elsewhere suggests that some nations will likely benefit more from complementarity-based approaches that focus on multiple sites with high provision of different services. Individual sites within these nations, however, such as Laguna de Terminos in Mexico still provide valuable opportunities to leverage co-benefits. Ensuring that an ES focused approach is complemented by strategic spatial planning is a priority, and our analyses provide a precursor towards decisions about where and how to invest.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems.

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

High-resolution mapping of losses and gains of Earth's tidal wetlands.

Tidal wetlands are expected to respond dynamically to global environmental change, but the extent to which wetland losses have been offset by gains remains poorly understood. We developed a global analysis of satellite data to simultaneously monitor change in three highly interconnected intertidal ecosystem types-tidal flats, tidal marshes, and mangroves-from 1999 to 2019. Globally, 13,700 square kilometers of tidal wetlands have been lost, but these have been substantially offset by gains of 9700 km2, leading to a net change of -4000 km2 over two decades. We found that 27% of these losses and gains were associated with direct human activities such as conversion to agriculture and restoration of lost wetlands. All other changes were attributed to indirect drivers, including the effects of coastal processes and climate change.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery.

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability.1,2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation,3 but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation.

Upscaling tropical restoration to deliver environmental benefits and socially equitable outcomes.

The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration offers immense potential to return hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded tropical landscapes to functioning ecosystems. Well-designed restoration can tackle multiple Sustainable Development Goals, driving synergistic benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem services, agricultural and timber production, and local livelihoods at large spatial scales. To deliver on this potential, restoration efforts must recognise and reduce trade-offs among objectives, and minimize competition with food production and conservation of native ecosystems. Restoration initiatives also need to confront core environmental challenges of climate change and inappropriate planting in savanna biomes, be robustly funded over the long term, and address issues of poor governance, inadequate land tenure, and socio-cultural disparities in benefits and costs. Tackling these issues using the landscape approach is vital to realising the potential for restoration to break the cycle of land degradation and poverty, and deliver on its core environmental and social promises.

The scale of Nigeria's involvement in the trans-national illegal pangolin trade: Temporal and spatial patterns and the effectiveness of wildlife trade regulations.

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) prohibits commercial trans-national trade in pangolin specimens. However, African pangolins are continually trafficked to Asia for traditional medicine, with Nigeria considered a key hub. Using reported Nigeria-linked pangolin seizure data and interviews with Nigerian law enforcement officials, we a) characterised Nigeria's involvement in global pangolin trafficking January 2010-September 2021, particularly observing trafficking trends after pangolin's CITES Appendix I listing; b) estimated the minimum number of pangolins whose scales are in Nigeria-linked seizures January 2010-September 2021, and; c) assessed ongoing efforts within Nigeria to curb pangolin trafficking. Nigeria-linked seizures involved 190,407 kg of pangolin derivatives (99.9% scales) from a minimum of 799,343 pangolins (95% confidence interval; 625,944-996,353) of four species (see caveats in Methods). All shipments confiscated in transit were destined for Asia, with a rapid increase in the mass of maritime shipments over time. Furthermore, stockpiling of pangolin derivatives for overseas shipment is perhaps a prominent trafficking model in Nigeria. Nigeria's law enforcement efforts improved from 2017, the same year Nigeria apparently began playing a hub role. The impact of pangolin's CITES Appendix I listing on pangolin trafficking was unclear, as the marked rise in seizures from 2017 when the listing became effective, coincided with improvements in Nigerian law enforcement efforts. COVID-19-induced travel restrictions likely reduced trafficking activities in 2020 but activities may have fully resumed in 2021. This study provides new information to inform effective enforcement and policy formulation efforts to protect African pangolins.

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation.

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.5% (54,972 km2) of mangrove systems were deltaic, 27.5% (37,411 km2) were estuarine and 21.0% (28,493 km2) were open coast, with lagoonal mangroves the least abundant (11.0%, 14,993 km2). Mangroves were also classified based on their sedimentary setting, with carbonate mangroves being less abundant than terrigenous, representing just 9.6% of global coverage. Our typology provides a basis for future research to incorporate geomorphic and sedimentary setting in analyses. We present two examples of such applications. Firstly, based on change in extent between 1996 and 2016, we show while all types exhibited considerable declines in area, losses of lagoonal mangroves (- 6.9%) were nearly twice that of other types. Secondly, we quantify differences in aboveground biomass between mangroves of different types, with it being significantly lower in lagoonal mangroves. Overall, our biophysical typology provides a baseline for assessing restoration potential and for quantifying mangrove ecosystem service provision.

Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land-use change.

Globally, carbon-rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area. The sites are representative of contrasting hydrogeomorphic settings and also capture change over a 25-years LULCC chronosequence. Field-based assessments were conducted across 255 plots covering undisturbed and LULCC-affected mangroves (0-, 5-, 10-, 15- and 25-year-old post-harvest or regenerating forests as well as 15-year-old aquaculture ponds). Undisturbed mangroves stored total ecosystem carbon stocks of 182-2,730 (mean ± SD: 1,087 ± 584) Mg C/ha, with the large variation driven by hydrogeomorphic settings. The highest carbon stocks were found in estuarine interior (EI) mangroves, followed by open coast interior, open coast fringe and EI forests. Forest harvesting did not significantly affect soil carbon stocks, despite an elevated dead wood density relative to undisturbed forests, but it did remove nearly all live biomass. Aquaculture conversion removed 60% of soil carbon stock and 85% of live biomass carbon stock, relative to reference sites. By contrast, mangroves left to regenerate for more than 25 years reached the same level of biomass carbon compared to undisturbed forests, with annual biomass accumulation rates of 3.6 ± 1.1 Mg C ha-1  year-1 . This study shows that hydrogeomorphic setting controls natural dynamics of mangrove blue carbon stocks, while long-term land-use changes affect carbon loss and gain to a substantial degree. Therefore, current land-based climate policies must incorporate landscape and land-use characteristics, and their related carbon management consequences, for more effective emissions reduction targets and restoration outcomes.

Worldwide insect declines: An important message, but interpret with caution.

A recent paper claiming evidence of global insect declines achieved huge media attention, including claims of "insectaggedon" and a "collapse of nature." Here, we argue that while many insects are declining in many places around the world, the study has important limitations that should be highlighted. We emphasise the robust evidence of large and rapid insect declines present in the literature, while also highlighting the limitations of the original study.

Effects of Water Loss on New Mexico Spadefoot Toad (Spea multiplicata) Development, Spleen Cellularity, and Corticosterone Levels.

Amphibian metamorphosis is complex and larval morphology and physiology are completely restructured during this time. Amphibians that live in unpredictable environments are often exposed to stressors that can directly and indirectly alter physiological systems during development, with subsequent consequences (carryover effects) later in life. In this study, we investigated the effects of water level reduction on development rate, spleen size and cellularity, and examined the role of corticosterone levels in premetamorphic, metamorphic, and postmetamorphic New Mexico spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata). Based on previous studies, we hypothesized that declining water level would increase tadpole developmental rate, but with the trade-off of increasing corticosterone to a level that would subsequently affect spleen size and cellularity, thus prolonging potential immunological suppression. Declining water levels increased developmental rate by 3 days; however, there were no significant body size effects. Corticosterone (CORT) was negatively correlated with total length, snout vent length, body weight, and spleen weight at metamorphosis, suggesting that size at metamorphosis and the immune system may be affected by excessive CORT levels. When compared to other studies, our results support the view that multiple factors may be acting as stressors in the field affecting amphibian responses, and simple pathways as tested in this study may not adequately represent field conditions.

Advancing Environmental Flow Science: Developing Frameworks for Altered Landscapes and Integrating Efforts Across Disciplines.

Environmental flows represent a legal mechanism to balance existing and future water uses and sustain non-use values. Here, we identify current challenges, provide examples where they are important, and suggest research advances that would benefit environmental flow science. Specifically, environmental flow science would benefit by (1) developing approaches to address streamflow needs in highly modified landscapes where historic flows do not provide reasonable comparisons, (2) integrating water quality needs where interactions are apparent with quantity but not necessarily the proximate factor of the ecological degradation, especially as frequency and magnitudes of inflows to bays and estuaries, (3) providing a better understanding of the ecological needs of native species to offset the often unintended consequences of benefiting non-native species or their impact on flows, (4) improving our understanding of the non-use economic value to balance consumptive economic values, and (5) increasing our understanding of the stakeholder socioeconomic spatial distribution of attitudes and perceptions across the landscape. Environmental flow science is still an emerging interdisciplinary field and by integrating socioeconomic disciplines and developing new frameworks to accommodate our altered landscapes, we should help advance environmental flow science and likely increase successful implementation of flow standards.

Interacting effects of discharge and channel morphology on transport of semibuoyant fish eggs in large, altered river systems.

Habitat fragmentation and flow regulation are significant factors related to the decline and extinction of freshwater biota. Pelagic-broadcast spawning cyprinids require moving water and some length of unfragmented stream to complete their life cycle. However, it is unknown how discharge and habitat features interact at multiple spatial scales to alter the transport of semi-buoyant fish eggs. Our objective was to assess the relationship between downstream drift of semi-buoyant egg surrogates (gellan beads) and discharge and habitat complexity. We quantified transport time of a known quantity of beads using 2-3 sampling devices at each of seven locations on the North Canadian and Canadian rivers. Transport time was assessed based on median capture time (time at which 50% of beads were captured) and sampling period (time period when 2.5% and 97.5% of beads were captured). Habitat complexity was assessed by calculating width∶depth ratios at each site, and several habitat metrics determined using analyses of aerial photographs. Median time of egg capture was negatively correlated to site discharge. The temporal extent of the sampling period at each site was negatively correlated to both site discharge and habitat-patch dispersion. Our results highlight the role of discharge in driving transport times, but also indicate that higher dispersion of habitat patches relates to increased retention of beads within the river. These results could be used to target restoration activities or prioritize water use to create and maintain habitat complexity within large, fragmented river systems.

Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: identifying threats and conservation priorities.

Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi-scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi. Arkansas River shiner represent a threatened reproductive ecotype considered especially well adapted to the harsh environmental extremes of the Great Plains. Historic (n = 163 records) and current (n = 47 records) species distribution models were constructed using a vector-based approach in MaxEnt by splitting the available data at a time when Arkansas River shiner dramatically declined. Discharge and stream order were significant predictors in both models; however, the shape of the relationship between the predictors and species presence varied between time periods. Drift distance (river fragment length available for ichthyoplankton downstream drift before meeting a barrier) was a more important predictor in the current model and indicated river segments 375-780 km had the highest probability of species presence. Performance for the historic and current models was high (area under the curve; AUC > 0.95); however, forecasting and backcasting to alternative time periods suggested less predictive power. Our results identify fragments that could be considered refuges for endemic plains fish species and we highlight significant environmental factors (e.g., discharge) that could be manipulated to aid recovery.