Survival Prediction in Home Hospice Care Patients with Lung Cancer Based on LASSO Algorithm.

PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to develop a nomogram for prognostic prediction of patients with lung cancer in hospice. METHODS: The data was collected from 1106 lung cancer patients in hospice between January 2008 and December 2018. The data were split into a training set, which was used to identify the most important prognostic factors by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and to build the nomogram, while the testing set was used to validate the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by c-index, calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 1106 patients, including 835 (75%) from the training set and 271 (25%) from testing set, were retrospectively analyzed in this study. Using the LASSO regression, 5 most important prognostic predictors that included sex, Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS), quality-of-life (QOL), edema and anorexia, were selected out of 28 variables. Validated c-indexes of training set at 15, 30, and 90 days were .778 [.737-.818], .776 [.743-.809], and .751 [.713-.790], respectively. Similarly, the validated c-indexes of testing set at 15, 30, and 90 days were .789 [.714-.864], .748 [.685-.811], and .757 [.691-.823], respectively. The nomogram-predicted survival was well calibrated, as the predicted probabilities were close to the expected probabilities. Moreover, the DCA curve showed that nomogram received superior standardized net benefit at a broad threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The study built a non-lab nomogram with important predictor to analyze the clinical parameters using LASSO. It may be a useful tool to allow clinicians to easily estimate the prognosis of the patients with lung cancer in hospice.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-Associated Liver Fibrosis Is Linked with the Severity of Coronary Artery Disease Mediated by Systemic Inflammation.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective study of 531 patients with ultrasonogram-confirmed NAFLD who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Then, all patients were separated into four categories by Gensini score (0, 0-9, 9-48, and ≥48) for use in ordinal logistic regression analysis to determine whether NAFLD fibrosis was associated with increased Gensini scores. Mediation analysis was used to investigate whether systemic inflammation is a mediating factor in the association between NAFLD fibrosis and CAD severity. FIB - 4 > 2.67 (OR = 5.67, 95% CI 2.59-12.38) and APRI > 1.5 (OR = 14.8, 95% CI 3.24-67.60) remained to be independent risk factors for the severity of CAD after adjusting for conventional risk factors, whereas among the inflammation markers, only neutrophils and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were independently associated with CAD. Multivariable ordinal regression analysis suggested that increasing Gensini score (0, 0-9, 9-48, and ≥48) was associated with advanced NAFLD fibrosis. ROC curve showed that either fibrosis markers or inflammation markers, integrating with traditional risk factors, could increase the predictive capacity for determining CAD. Inflammation markers, especially neutrophils and NLR, were mediators of the relationship between NAFLD fibrosis and CAD severity. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD patients with advanced fibrosis are at a high risk of severe coronary artery stenosis, and inflammation might mediate the association between NAFLD fibrosis and CAD severity.

A non-lab nomogram of survival prediction in home hospice care patients with gastrointestinal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients suffering from gastrointestinal cancer comprise a large group receiving home hospice care in China, however, little is known about the prediction of their survival time. This study aimed to develop a gastrointestinal cancer-specific non-lab nomogram predicting survival time in home-based hospice. METHODS: We retrospectively studied the patients with gastrointestinal cancer from a home-based hospice between 2008 and 2018. General baseline characteristics, disease-related characteristics, and related assessment scale scores were collected from the case records. The data were randomly split into a training set (75%) for developing a predictive nomogram and a testing set (25%) for validation. A non-lab nomogram predicting the 30-day and 60-day survival probability was created using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression. We evaluated the performance of our predictive model by means of the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve. RESULTS: A total of 1618 patients were included and divided into two sets: 1214 patients (110 censored) as training dataset and 404 patients (33 censored) as testing dataset. The median survival time for overall included patients was 35 days (IQR, 17-66). The 5 most significant prognostic variables were identified to construct the nomogram among all 28 initial variables, including Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), abdominal distention, edema, quality of life (QOL), and duration of pain. In training dataset validation, the AUC at 30 days and 60 days were 0.723 (95% CI, 0.694-0.753) and 0.733 (95% CI, 0.702-0.763), respectively. Similarly, the AUC value was 0.724 (0.673-0.774) at 30 days and 0.725 (0.672-0.778) at 60 days in the testing dataset validation. Further, the calibration curves revealed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations in both the training and testing dataset. CONCLUSION: This non-lab nomogram may be a useful clinical tool. It needs prospective multicenter validation as well as testing with Chinese clinicians in charge of hospice patients with gastrointestinal cancer to assess acceptability and usability.

High risk of colorectal polyps in men with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: This meta-analysis aims to explore the risk of colorectal polyps among non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library databases using predefined search term to identify eligible studies (published up to 7 November 2019). Data from selected studies were extracted by using a standardized information collection form, and meta-analyses were performed using random-effects model. The statistical heterogeneity among studies (I2 ), subgroup analyses, meta-regression analyses, and the possibility of publication bias were assessed. RESULTS: Twenty observational (12 cross-sectional, two case-control, and six cohort) studies met the eligibility criteria, involving 142 387 asymptomatic adults. In cross-sectional/case-control studies, NAFLD was found to be associated with an increased risk of colorectal polyps (odds ratio [OR] = 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23-1.47) (including unclassified colorectal polyps, hyperplastic polyps, adenomas, and cancers) with statistically significant heterogeneity (I2  = 67.8%; P < 0.001). NAFLD was also associated with a higher risk of incident colorectal polyps (hazard ratio = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.36-1.87) with low heterogeneity (I2  = 21.8%; P = 0.263) in longitudinal studies. The severity of NAFLD was associated with a higher risk of colorectal adenomas (OR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.30-1.88), but not colorectal cancer (OR = 1.37; 95% CI = 0.92-2.03). The subgroup analysis according to gender showed that NAFLD was significantly associated with a higher risk of colorectal polyps in the male population without significant heterogeneity (OR = 1.47; 95% CI = 1.29-1.67, I2  = 0%), but not in the female population (OR = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.60-1.29, I2  = 34.2%). CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD was associated with an increased risk of colorectal polyps. There was a significant difference of the relationship between genders, which suggested more precise screening colonoscopy recommendation in NAFLD patients according to gender.