Optimizing warfarin dosing for patients with atrial fibrillation using machine learning.

While novel oral anticoagulants are increasingly used to reduce risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, vitamin K antagonists such as warfarin continue to be used extensively for stroke prevention across the world. While effective in reducing the risk of strokes, the complex pharmacodynamics of warfarin make it difficult to use clinically, with many patients experiencing under- and/or over- anticoagulation. In this study we employed a novel implementation of deep reinforcement learning to provide clinical decision support to optimize time in therapeutic International Normalized Ratio (INR) range. We used a novel semi-Markov decision process formulation of the Batch-Constrained deep Q-learning algorithm to develop a reinforcement learning model to dynamically recommend optimal warfarin dosing to achieve INR of 2.0-3.0 for patients with atrial fibrillation. The model was developed using data from 22,502 patients in the warfarin treated groups of the pivotal randomized clinical trials of edoxaban (ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48), apixaban (ARISTOTLE) and rivaroxaban (ROCKET AF). The model was externally validated on data from 5730 warfarin-treated patients in a fourth trial of dabigatran (RE-LY) using multilevel regression models to estimate the relationship between center-level algorithm consistent dosing, time in therapeutic INR range (TTR), and a composite clinical outcome of stroke, systemic embolism or major hemorrhage. External validation showed a positive association between center-level algorithm-consistent dosing and TTR (R2 = 0.56). Each 10% increase in algorithm-consistent dosing at the center level independently predicted a 6.78% improvement in TTR (95% CI 6.29, 7.28; p < 0.001) and a 11% decrease in the composite clinical outcome (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.81, 1.00; p = 0.015). These results were comparable to those of a rules-based clinical algorithm used for benchmarking, for which each 10% increase in algorithm-consistent dosing independently predicted a 6.10% increase in TTR (95% CI 5.67, 6.54, p < 0.001) and a 10% decrease in the composite outcome (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83, 0.98, p = 0.018). Our findings suggest that a deep reinforcement learning algorithm can optimize time in therapeutic range for patients taking warfarin. A digital clinical decision support system to promote algorithm-consistent warfarin dosing could optimize time in therapeutic range and improve clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation globally.

Antibody correlates of protection against Delta infection after vaccination: A nested case-control within the UK-based SIREN study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate serological correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) infection after two vaccinations. METHODS: We performed a case-control study, where cases were Delta infections after the second vaccine dose and controls were vaccinated, never infected participants, matched by age, gender and region. Sera were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike antibody levels (anti-S) and neutralising antibody titres (nAbT), using live virus microneutralisation against Ancestral, Delta and Omicron (BA.1, B.1.1.529). We modelled the decay of anti-S and nAbT for both groups, inferring levels at matched calendar times since the second vaccination. We assessed differences in inferred antibody titres between groups and used conditional logistic regression to explore the relationship between titres and odds of infection. RESULTS: In total, 130 sequence-confirmed Delta cases and 318 controls were included. Anti-S and Ancestral nAbT decayed similarly between groups, but faster in cases for Delta nAbT (p = 0.02) and Omicron nAbT (p = 0.002). At seven days before infection, controls had higher anti-S levels (p < 0.0001) and nAbT (p < 0.0001; all variants) at matched calendar time. A two-fold increase in anti-S levels was associated with a 29% ([95% CI 14-42%]; p = 0.001) reduction in odds of Delta infection. Delta nAbT>40 were associated with reduced odds of Delta infection (89%, [69-96%]; p < 0.0001), with additional benefits for titres >100 (p = 0.009) and >400 (p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 Delta, with potential implications for vaccine deployment, development, and public health response.

CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and antibodies are associated with protection against Delta vaccine breakthrough infection: a nested case-control study within the PITCH study.

IMPORTANCE: Defining correlates of protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine breakthrough infection informs vaccine policy for booster doses and future vaccine designs. Existing studies demonstrate humoral correlates of protection, but the role of T cells in protection is still unclear. In this study, we explore antibody and T cell immune responses associated with protection against Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infection in a well-characterized cohort of UK Healthcare Workers (HCWs). We demonstrate evidence to support a role for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells as well as antibodies against Delta vaccine breakthrough infection. In addition, our results suggest a potential role for cross-reactive T cells in vaccine breakthrough.

Commercial Immunoglobulin Products Contain Neutralizing Antibodies Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Spike Protein.

BACKGROUND: Patients with antibody deficiency respond poorly to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and are at risk of severe or prolonged infection. They are given long-term immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IRT) prepared from healthy donor plasma to confer passive immunity against infection. Following widespread COVID-19 vaccination alongside natural exposure, we hypothesized that immunoglobulin preparations will now contain neutralizing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike antibodies, which confer protection against COVID-19 disease and may help to treat chronic infection. METHODS: We evaluated anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody in a cohort of patients before and after immunoglobulin infusion. Neutralizing capacity of patient samples and immunoglobulin products was assessed using in vitro pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays, the latter investigating multiple batches against current circulating Omicron variants. We describe the clinical course of 9 patients started on IRT during treatment of COVID-19. RESULTS: In 35 individuals with antibody deficiency established on IRT, median anti-spike antibody titer increased from 2123 to 10 600 U/mL postinfusion, with corresponding increase in pseudovirus neutralization titers to levels comparable to healthy donors. Testing immunoglobulin products directly in the live-virus assay confirmed neutralization, including of BQ1.1 and XBB variants, but with variation between immunoglobulin products and batches.Initiation of IRT alongside remdesivir in patients with antibody deficiency and prolonged COVID-19 infection (median 189 days, maximum >900 days with an ancestral viral strain) resulted in clearance of SARS-CoV-2 at a median of 20 days. CONCLUSIONS: Immunoglobulin preparations now contain neutralizing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that are transmitted to patients and help to treat COVID-19 in individuals with failure of humoral immunity.

Sotrovimab restores neutralization against current Omicron subvariants in patients with blood cancer.

Wu et al. report that patients with hematologic malignancies have reduced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants and Sotrovimab retains neutralizing capacity against all tested Omicron subvariants.

Strong peak immunogenicity but rapid antibody waning following third vaccine dose in older residents of care homes.

Third-dose coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines are being deployed widely but their efficacy has not been assessed adequately in vulnerable older people who exhibit suboptimal responses after primary vaccination series. This observational study, which was carried out by the VIVALDI study based in England, looked at spike-specific immune responses in 341 staff and residents in long-term care facilities who received an mRNA vaccine following dual primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Third-dose vaccination strongly increased antibody responses with preferential relative enhancement in older people and was required to elicit neutralization of Omicron. Cellular immune responses were also enhanced with strong cross-reactive recognition of Omicron. However, antibody titers fell 21-78% within 100 d after vaccine and 27% of participants developed a breakthrough Omicron infection. These findings reveal strong immunogenicity of a third vaccine in one of the most vulnerable population groups and endorse an approach for widespread delivery across this population. Ongoing assessment will be required to determine the stability of immune protection.

Functional immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern after fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose or infection in patients with blood cancer.

Patients with blood cancer continue to have a greater risk of inadequate immune responses following three COVID-19 vaccine doses and risk of severe COVID-19 disease. In the context of the CAPTURE study (NCT03226886), we report immune responses in 80 patients with blood cancer who received a fourth dose of BNT162b2. We measured neutralizing antibody titers (NAbTs) using a live virus microneutralization assay against wild-type (WT), Delta, and Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 and T cell responses against WT and Omicron BA.1 using an activation-induced marker (AIM) assay. The proportion of patients with detectable NAb titers and T cell responses after the fourth vaccine dose increased compared with that after the third vaccine dose. Patients who received B cell-depleting therapies within the 12 months before vaccination have the greatest risk of not having detectable NAbT. In addition, we report immune responses in 57 patients with breakthrough infections after vaccination.

Antibody correlates of protection from SARS-CoV-2 reinfection prior to vaccination: A nested case-control within the SIREN study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate serological differences between SARS-CoV-2 reinfection cases and contemporary controls, to identify antibody correlates of protection against reinfection. METHODS: We performed a case-control study, comparing reinfection cases with singly infected individuals pre-vaccination, matched by gender, age, region and timing of first infection. Serum samples were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike (anti-S), anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (anti-N), live virus microneutralisation (LV-N) and pseudovirus microneutralisation (PV-N). Results were analysed using fixed effect linear regression and fitted into conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: We identified 23 cases and 92 controls. First infections occurred before November 2020; reinfections occurred before February 2021, pre-vaccination. Anti-S levels, LV-N and PV-N titres were significantly lower among cases; no difference was found for anti-N levels. Increasing anti-S levels were associated with reduced risk of reinfection (OR 0·63, CI 0·47-0·85), but no association for anti-N levels (OR 0·88, CI 0·73-1·05). Titres >40 were correlated with protection against reinfection for LV-N Wuhan (OR 0·02, CI 0·001-0·31) and LV-N Alpha (OR 0·07, CI 0·009-0·62). For PV-N, titres >100 were associated with protection against Wuhan (OR 0·14, CI 0·03-0·64) and Alpha (0·06, CI 0·008-0·40). CONCLUSIONS: Before vaccination, protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was directly correlated with anti-S levels, PV-N and LV-N titres, but not with anti-N levels. Detectable LV-N titres were sufficient for protection, whilst PV-N titres >100 were required for a protective effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11041050.

SARS-CoV-2 S2-targeted vaccination elicits broadly neutralizing antibodies.

Several variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have emerged during the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Although antibody cross-reactivity with the spike glycoproteins (S) of diverse coronaviruses, including endemic common cold coronaviruses (HCoVs), has been documented, it remains unclear whether such antibody responses, typically targeting the conserved S2 subunit, contribute to protection when induced by infection or through vaccination. Using a mouse model, we found that prior HCoV-OC43 S-targeted immunity primes neutralizing antibody responses to otherwise subimmunogenic SARS-CoV-2 S exposure and promotes S2-targeting antibody responses. Moreover, vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 S2 elicited antibodies in mice that neutralized diverse animal and human alphacoronaviruses and betacoronaviruses in vitro and provided a degree of protection against SARS-CoV-2 challenge in vivo. Last, in mice with a history of SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan-based S vaccination, further S2 vaccination induced broader neutralizing antibody response than booster Wuhan S vaccination, suggesting that it may prevent repertoire focusing caused by repeated homologous vaccination. These data establish the protective value of an S2-targeting vaccine and support the notion that S2 vaccination may better prepare the immune system to respond to the changing nature of the S1 subunit in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, as well as to future coronavirus zoonoses.

USP25 promotes pathological HIF-1-driven metabolic reprogramming and is a potential therapeutic target in pancreatic cancer.

Deubiquitylating enzymes (DUBs) play an essential role in targeted protein degradation and represent an emerging therapeutic paradigm in cancer. However, their therapeutic potential in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has not been explored. Here, we develop a DUB discovery pipeline, combining activity-based proteomics with a loss-of-function genetic screen in patient-derived PDAC organoids and murine genetic models. This approach identifies USP25 as a master regulator of PDAC growth and maintenance. Genetic and pharmacological USP25 inhibition results in potent growth impairment in PDAC organoids, while normal pancreatic organoids are insensitive, and causes dramatic regression of patient-derived xenografts. Mechanistically, USP25 deubiquitinates and stabilizes the HIF-1α transcription factor. PDAC is characterized by a severely hypoxic microenvironment, and USP25 depletion abrogates HIF-1α transcriptional activity and impairs glycolysis, inducing PDAC cell death in the tumor hypoxic core. Thus, the USP25/HIF-1α axis is an essential mechanism of metabolic reprogramming and survival in PDAC, which can be therapeutically exploited.

Microbial communities form rich extracellular metabolomes that foster metabolic interactions and promote drug tolerance.

Microbial communities are composed of cells of varying metabolic capacity, and regularly include auxotrophs that lack essential metabolic pathways. Through analysis of auxotrophs for amino acid biosynthesis pathways in microbiome data derived from >12,000 natural microbial communities obtained as part of the Earth Microbiome Project (EMP), and study of auxotrophic-prototrophic interactions in self-establishing metabolically cooperating yeast communities (SeMeCos), we reveal a metabolically imprinted mechanism that links the presence of auxotrophs to an increase in metabolic interactions and gains in antimicrobial drug tolerance. As a consequence of the metabolic adaptations necessary to uptake specific metabolites, auxotrophs obtain altered metabolic flux distributions, export more metabolites and, in this way, enrich community environments in metabolites. Moreover, increased efflux activities reduce intracellular drug concentrations, allowing cells to grow in the presence of drug levels above minimal inhibitory concentrations. For example, we show that the antifungal action of azoles is greatly diminished in yeast cells that uptake metabolites from a metabolically enriched environment. Our results hence provide a mechanism that explains why cells are more robust to drug exposure when they interact metabolically.