Natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to particle components: an analysis of 19 European cohorts within the multi-center ESCAPE project.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown associations between mortality and long-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution. Few cohort studies have estimated the effects of the elemental composition of particulate matter on mortality. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to study the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to elemental components of particulate matter. METHODS: Mortality and confounder data from 19 European cohort studies were used. Residential exposure to eight a priori-selected components of particulate matter (PM) was characterized following a strictly standardized protocol. Annual average concentrations of copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc within PM size fractions ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and ≤ 10 µm (PM10) were estimated using land-use regression models. Cohort-specific statistical analyses of the associations between mortality and air pollution were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models using a common protocol followed by meta-analysis. RESULTS: The total study population consisted of 291,816 participants, of whom 25,466 died from a natural cause during follow-up (average time of follow-up, 14.3 years). Hazard ratios were positive for almost all elements and statistically significant for PM2.5 sulfur (1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.23 per 200 ng/m3). In a two-pollutant model, the association with PM2.5 sulfur was robust to adjustment for PM2.5 mass, whereas the association with PM2.5 mass was reduced. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 sulfur was associated with natural-cause mortality. This association was robust to adjustment for other pollutants and PM2.5.

Arterial blood pressure and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution: an analysis in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to air pollution has been hypothesized to elevate arterial blood pressure (BP). The existing evidence is scarce and country specific. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the cross-sectional association of long-term traffic-related air pollution with BP and prevalent hypertension in European populations. METHODS: We analyzed 15 population-based cohorts, participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). We modeled residential exposure to particulate matter and nitrogen oxides with land use regression using a uniform protocol. We assessed traffic exposure with traffic indicator variables. We analyzed systolic and diastolic BP in participants medicated and nonmedicated with BP-lowering medication (BPLM) separately, adjusting for personal and area-level risk factors and environmental noise. Prevalent hypertension was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg systolic BP, or ≥ 90 mmHg diastolic BP, or intake of BPLM. We combined cohort-specific results using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the main meta-analysis of 113,926 participants, traffic load on major roads within 100 m of the residence was associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP in nonmedicated participants [0.35 mmHg (95% CI: 0.02, 0.68) and 0.22 mmHg (95% CI: 0.04, 0.40) per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day, respectively]. The estimated odds ratio (OR) for prevalent hypertension was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.11) per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day. Modeled air pollutants and BP were not clearly associated. CONCLUSIONS: In this first comprehensive meta-analysis of European population-based cohorts, we observed a weak positive association of high residential traffic exposure with BP in nonmedicated participants, and an elevated OR for prevalent hypertension. The relationship of modeled air pollutants with BP was inconsistent.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been associated with cardiovascular mortality, but it remains unclear as to whether specific pollutants are related to specific cardiovascular causes of death. Within the multicenter European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we investigated the associations of long-term exposure to several air pollutants with all cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, as well as with specific cardiovascular causes of death. METHODS: Data from 22 European cohort studies were used. Using a standardized protocol, study area-specific air pollution exposure at the residential address was characterized as annual average concentrations of the following: nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx); particles with diameters of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), less than 10 µm (PM10), and 10 µm to 2.5 µm (PMcoarse); PM2.5 absorbance estimated by land-use regression models; and traffic indicators. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazards models using a standardized protocol. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled effect estimates. RESULTS: The total study population consisted of 367,383 participants, with 9994 deaths from CVD (including 4,992 from ischemic heart disease, 2264 from myocardial infarction, and 2484 from cerebrovascular disease). All hazard ratios were approximately 1.0, except for particle mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality; for PM2.5, the hazard ratio was 1.21 (95% confidence interval = 0.87-1.69) per 5 µg/m and for PM10, 1.22 (0.91-1.63) per 10 µg/m. CONCLUSION: In a joint analysis of data from 22 European cohorts, most hazard ratios for the association of air pollutants with mortality from overall CVD and with specific CVDs were approximately 1.0, with the exception of particulate mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality for which there was suggestive evidence for an association.

Long-term exposure to elemental constituents of particulate matter and cardiovascular mortality in 19 European cohorts: results from the ESCAPE and TRANSPHORM projects.

BACKGROUND: Associations between long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality have been widely recognized. However, health effects of long-term exposure to constituents of PM on total CVD mortality have been explored in a single study only. AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the association of PM composition with cardiovascular mortality. METHODS: We used data from 19 European ongoing cohorts within the framework of the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) and TRANSPHORM (Transport related Air Pollution and Health impacts--Integrated Methodologies for Assessing Particulate Matter) projects. Residential annual average exposure to elemental constituents within particle matter smaller than 2.5 and 10 µm (PM2.5 and PM10) was estimated using Land Use Regression models. Eight elements representing major sources were selected a priori (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium and zinc). Cohort-specific analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models with a standardized protocol. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate combined effect estimates. RESULTS: The total population consisted of 322,291 participants, with 9545 CVD deaths. We found no statistically significant associations between any of the elemental constituents in PM2.5 or PM10 and CVD mortality in the pooled analysis. Most of the hazard ratios (HRs) were close to unity, e.g. for PM10 Fe the combined HR was 0.96 (0.84-1.09). Elevated combined HRs were found for PM2.5 Si (1.17, 95% CI: 0.93-1.47), and S in PM2.5 (1.08, 95% CI: 0.95-1.22) and PM10 (1.09, 95% CI: 0.90-1.32). CONCLUSION: In a joint analysis of 19 European cohorts, we found no statistically significant association between long-term exposure to 8 elemental constituents of particles and total cardiovascular mortality.

Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project.

BACKGROUND: Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. METHODS: We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367,251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), less than 10 µm (PM10), and between 10 µm and 2.5 µm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buffer. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: The total study population consisted of 367,251 participants who contributed 5,118,039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29,076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 µg/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I(2) p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 µg/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 µg/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13). INTERPRETATION: Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value. FUNDING: European Community's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2011).

Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts: prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE).

BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution is suspected to cause lung cancer. We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in European populations. METHODS: This prospective analysis of data obtained by the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects used data from 17 cohort studies based in nine European countries. Baseline addresses were geocoded and we assessed air pollution by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10 µm (PM10), less than 2·5 µm (PM2·5), and between 2·5 and 10 µm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2·5absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses. FINDINGS: The 312 944 cohort members contributed 4 013 131 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 12·8 years), 2095 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed a statistically significant association between risk for lung cancer and PM10 (hazard ratio [HR] 1·22 [95% CI 1·03-1·45] per 10 µg/m(3)). For PM2·5 the HR was 1·18 (0·96-1·46) per 5 µg/m(3). The same increments of PM10 and PM2·5 were associated with HRs for adenocarcinomas of the lung of 1·51 (1·10-2·08) and 1·55 (1·05-2·29), respectively. An increase in road traffic of 4000 vehicle-km per day within 100 m of the residence was associated with an HR for lung cancer of 1·09 (0·99-1·21). The results showed no association between lung cancer and nitrogen oxides concentration (HR 1·01 [0·95-1·07] per 20 µg/m(3)) or traffic intensity on the nearest street (HR 1·00 [0·97-1·04] per 5000 vehicles per day). INTERPRETATION: Particulate matter air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence in Europe. FUNDING: European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

A structural equation modelling approach to explore the role of B vitamins and immune markers in lung cancer risk.

The one-carbon metabolism (OCM) is considered key in maintaining DNA integrity and regulating gene expression, and may be involved in the process of carcinogenesis. Several B-vitamins and amino acids have been implicated in lung cancer risk, via the OCM directly as well as immune system activation. However it is unclear whether these factors act independently or through complex mechanisms. The current study applies structural equations modelling (SEM) to further disentangle the mechanisms involved in lung carcinogenesis. SEM allows simultaneous estimation of linear relations where a variable can be the outcome in one equation and the predictor in another, as well as allowing estimation using latent variables (factors estimated by correlation matrix). A large number of biomarkers have been analysed from 891 lung cancer cases and 1,747 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Four putative mechanisms in the OCM and immunity were investigated in relation to lung cancer risk: methionine-homocysteine metabolism, folate cycle, transsulfuration, and mechanisms involved in inflammation and immune activation, all adjusted for tobacco exposure. The hypothesized SEM model confirmed a direct and protective effect for factors representing methionine-homocysteine metabolism (p = 0.020) and immune activation (p = 0.021), and an indirect protective effect of folate cycle (p = 0.019), after adjustment for tobacco smoking. In conclusion, our results show that in the investigation of the involvement of the OCM, the folate cycle and immune system in lung carcinogenesis, it is important to consider complex pathways (by applying SEM) rather than the effects of single vitamins or nutrients (e.g. using traditional multiple regression). In our study SEM were able to suggest a greater role of the methionine-homocysteine metabolism and immune activation over other potential mechanisms.

Biomarkers of ambient air pollution and lung cancer: a systematic review.

The association between ambient air pollution exposure and lung cancer risk has been investigated in prospective studies and the results are generally consistent, indicating that long-term exposure to air pollution may cause lung cancer. Despite the prospective nature and consistent findings of these studies, causality assessment can benefit from biomarker research. In the present systematic review, we assess the contribution of intermediate biomarkers in epidemiological studies, to ascertain whether their measurement reinforces causal reasoning. We have reviewed 524 papers which described the relationships between ambient air pollution and biological markers of dose and early response. The evidence for each marker was evaluated using assessment criteria which rate a group of studies from A (strong) to C (weak) on amount of evidence, replication of findings, and protection from bias. Biomarkers that scored A or B for all three criteria are included here. The markers that fulfilled the inclusion criteria are: 1-hydroxypyrene, DNA adducts, chromosomal aberrations, micronuclei, oxidative damage to nucleobases, and methylation changes. These biomarkers cover the whole spectrum of disease onset and progression from external exposure to tumour formation and some have also been suggested as risk predictors of future cancer, reinforcing causal reasoning. However, methodological issues such as confounding, publication bias and use of surrogate tissues instead of target tissues in studies on these markers are of concern. The identified biological markers have potential to shed light on the pathways of carcinogenesis, thus defining the association more clearly for public health interventions.

Plasma cotinine levels and pancreatic cancer in the EPIC cohort study.

Smoking is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer, previously investigated by the means of questionnaires. Using cotinine as a biomarker for tobacco exposure allows more accurate quantitative analyses to be performed. This study on pancreatic cancer, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC cohort), included 146 cases and 146 matched controls. Using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, plasma cotinine levels were analyzed on average 8.0 years before cancer onset (5-95% range: 2.8-12.0 years). The relation between plasma cotinine levels and pancreatic cancer was analyzed with conditional logistic regression for different levels of cotinine in a population of never and current smokers. This was also done for the self-reported number of smoked cigarettes per day at baseline. Every increase of 350 nmol/L of plasma cotinine was found to significantly elevate risk of pancreatic cancer [odds ratio (OR): 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.60]. People with a cotinine level over 1187.8 nmol/L, a level comparable to smoking 17 cigarettes per day, have an elevated risk of pancreatic cancer, compared to people with cotinine levels below 55 nmol/L (OR: 3.66, 95% CI: 1.44-9.26). The results for self-reported smoking at baseline also show an increased risk of pancreatic cancer from cigarette smoking based on questionnaire information. People who smoke more than 30 cigarettes per day showed the highest risk compared to never smokers (OR: 4.15, 95% CI: 1.02-16.42). This study is the first to show that plasma cotinine levels are strongly related to pancreatic cancer.

Consumption of meat and fish and risk of lung cancer: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

Evidence from case-control studies, but less so from cohort studies, suggests a positive association between meat intake and risk of lung cancer. Therefore, this association was evaluated in the frame of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, EPIC. Data from 478,021 participants, recruited from 10 European countries, who completed a dietary questionnaire in 1992-2000 were evaluated; 1,822 incident primary lung cancer cases were included in the present evaluation. Relative risk estimates were calculated for categories of meat intake using multi-variably adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. In addition, the continuous intake variables were calibrated by means of 24-h diet recall data to account for part of the measurement error. There were no consistent associations between meat consumption and the risk of lung cancer. Neither red meat (RR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.89-1.27 per 50 g intake/day; calibrated model) nor processed meat (RR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.95-1.34 per 50 g/day; calibrated model) was significantly related to an increased risk of lung cancer. Also, consumption of white meat and fish was not associated with the risk of lung cancer. These findings do not support the hypothesis that a high intake of red and processed meat is a risk factor for lung cancer.

Smoking, secondhand smoke, and cotinine levels in a subset of EPIC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Several countries are discussing new legislation regarding the ban on smoking in public places, based on the growing evidence of the hazards of secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure. The objective of the present study is to quantitatively assess the relationship between smoking, SHS, and serum cotinine levels in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS: From a study on lung cancer in the EPIC cohort, questionnaire information on smoking was collected at enrolment, and cotinine was measured in serum. Three statistical models were applied by using samples available in a cross-section design: (i) cotinine levels by categories combining smoking and SHS (n = 859); (ii) the effect of hours of passive smoking exposure in nonsmokers only (n = 107); (iii) the effect of the number of cigarettes consumed per day in current smokers only (n = 832). All models were adjusted for country, sex, age, and body mass index. RESULTS: Among nonsmokers, passive smokers presented significant differences in cotinine compared with nonexposed, with a marked (but not significant) difference among former-smokers. A one hour per day increment of SHS gave rise to a significant 2.58 nmol/L (0.45 ng/mL) increase in mean serum cotinine (P < 0.001). In current smokers, a one cigarette per day increment gave rise to a significant 22.44 nmol/L (3.95 ng/mL) increase in cotinine mean (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: There is clear evidence that not only tobacco smoking but also involuntary exposure increases cotinine levels. IMPACT: This study strengthens the evidence for the benefits of a smoking ban in public places.

Variety in fruit and vegetable consumption and the risk of lung cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether a varied consumption of vegetables and fruits is associated with lower lung cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. METHODS: After a mean follow-up of 8.7 years, 1,613 of 452,187 participants with complete information were diagnosed with lung cancer. Diet diversity scores (DDS) were used to quantify the variety in fruit and vegetable consumption. Multivariable proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations between DDS and lung cancer risk. All models were adjusted for smoking behavior and the total consumption of fruit and vegetables. RESULTS: With increasing variety in vegetable subgroups, risk of lung cancer decreases [hazard ratios (HR), 0.77; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.64-0.94 highest versus lowest quartile; P trend = 0.02]. This inverse association is restricted to current smokers (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.93 highest versus lowest quartile; P trend = 0.03). In continuous analyses, in current smokers, lower risks were observed for squamous cell carcinomas with more variety in fruit and vegetable products combined (HR/two products, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.95), vegetable subgroups (HR/subgroup, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79-0.97), vegetable products (HR/two products, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.96), and fruit products (HR/two products, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.97). CONCLUSION: Variety in vegetable consumption was inversely associated with lung cancer risk among current smokers. Risk of squamous cell carcinomas was reduced with increasing variety in fruit and/or vegetable consumption, which was mainly driven by the effect in current smokers. IMPACT: Independent from quantity of consumption, variety in fruit and vegetable consumption may decrease lung cancer risk.

Climate change epidemiology: methodological challenges.

Climate change is now thought to be unequivocal, while its potential effects on global and public health cannot be ignored. However, the complexities of the causal webs, the dynamics of the interactions and unpredictability mean that climate change presents new challenges to epidemiology and magnifies existing methodological problems. This article reviews a number of such challenges, including topics such as exposure assessment, bias, confounding, causal complexities and uncertainties, with examples and recommendations provided where appropriate. Hence, epidemiology must continue to adapt by developing new approaches and the integration of other disciplines such as geography and climatology, with an emphasis on informing policy-making and disseminating knowledge beyond the field.