POLICI: A web application for visualising and extracting yellow fever vaccination coverage in Africa.

Recent yellow fever (YF) outbreaks have highlighted the increasing global risk of urban spread of the disease. In context of recurrent vaccine shortages, preventive vaccination activities require accurate estimates of existing population-level immunity. We present POLICI (POpulation-Level Immunization Coverage - Imperial), an interactive online tool for visualising and extracting YF vaccination coverage estimates in Africa. We calculated single year age-disaggregated sub-national population-level vaccination coverage for 1950-2050 across the African endemic zone by collating vaccination information and inputting it into a demographic model. This was then implemented on an open interactive web platform. POLICI interactively displays age-disaggregated, population-level vaccination coverages at the first subnational administrative level, through numerous downloadable and customisable visualisations. POLICI is available at https://polici.shinyapps.io/yellow_fever_africa/. POLICI offers an accessible platform for relevant stakeholders in global health to access and explore vaccination coverages. These estimates have already been used to inform the WHO strategy to Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE).

Find the right sample: A study on the versatility of saliva and urine samples for the diagnosis of emerging viruses.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of different viral infections during the last decades like dengue, West Nile, SARS, chikungunya, MERS-CoV, Ebola, Zika and Yellow Fever raised some questions on quickness and reliability of laboratory diagnostic tests for verification of suspected cases. Since sampling of blood requires medically trained personal and comprises some risks for the patient as well as for the health care personal, the sampling by non-invasive methods (e.g. saliva and/ or urine) might be a very valuable alternative for investigating a diseased patient. MAIN BODY: To analyse the usefulness of alternative non-invasive samples for the diagnosis of emerging infectious viral diseases, a literature search was performed on PubMed for alternative sampling for these viral infections. In total, 711 papers of potential relevance were found, of which we have included 128 in this review. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the experience using non-invasive sampling for the diagnostic of emerging viral diseases, it seems important to perform an investigation using alternative samples for routine diagnostics. Moreover, during an outbreak situation, evaluation of appropriate sampling and further processing for laboratory analysis on various diagnostic platforms are very crucial. This will help to achieve optimal diagnostic results for a good and reliable case identification.

Sero-prevalence of yellow fever and related Flavi viruses in Ethiopia: a public health perspective.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF) is a viral hemorrhagic fever, endemic in the tropical forests of Africa and Central and South America. The disease is transmitted by mosquitoes infected with the yellow fever virus (YFV). Ethiopia was affected by the largest YF outbreak since the vaccination era during 1960-1962. The recent YF outbreak occurred in 2013 in Southern part of the country. The current survey of was carried out to determine the YF seroprevalence so as to make recommendations from YF prevention and control in Ethiopia. METHODOLOGY: A multistage cluster design was utilized. Consequently, the country was divided into 5 ecological zones and two sampling towns were picked per zone randomly. A total of 1643 serum samples were collected from human participants. The serum samples were tested for IgG antibody against YFV using ELISA. Any serum sample testing positive by ELISA was confirmed by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). In addition, differential testing was performed for other flaviviruses, namely dengue, Zika and West Nile viruses. RESULT: Of the total samples tested, 10 (0.61%) were confirmed to be IgG positive against YFV and confirmed with PRNT. Nine (0.5%) samples were antibody positive for dengue virus, 15(0.9%) forWest Nile virus and 7 (0.4%) for Zika virus by PRNT. Three out of the five ecological zones namely zones 1, 3 and 5 showed low levels (< 2%) of IgG positivity against YFV. A total of 41(2.5%) cases were confirmed to be positive for one of flaviviruses tested. CONCLUSION: Based on the seroprevalence data, the level of YFV activity and the risk of a YF epidemic in Ethiopia are low. However additional factors that could impact the likelihood of such an epidemic occurring should be considered before making final recommendations for YF prevention and control in Ethiopia. Based on the results of the serosurvey and other YF epidemic risk factors considered, a preventive mass vaccination campaign is not recommended, however the introduction of YF vaccine in routine EPI is proposed nationwide, along with strong laboratory based YF surveillance.

The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike's Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of increased transmission and provide insights into the occurrence of large outbreaks, such as those seen in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Brazil.

Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Atypical Clinical Presentations of Acute Phase Chikungunya Virus Infection in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether the presentation of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection differs between older and younger adults with regard to clinical form during the acute phase defined by the World Health Organization: acute clinical, atypical, and severe acute. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, retrospective. SETTING: University Hospital of Martinique. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 65 and older (n = 267, mean age 80.4 ± 87.9) who attended the emergency department with a positive biological diagnosis of CHIKV (reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction) between January and December 2014 and a randomly selected sample of individuals younger than 65 (n = 109, mean age 46.2 ± 12.7). RESULTS: Typical presentation was present in 8.2% of older adults and 59.6% of younger individuals (P < .001), atypical presentation in 29.6% of older adults and 5.6% of younger individuals (P < .001), and severe presentation in 19.5% of older adults and 17.4% of younger individuals (P = .65). One hundred fourteen (42.7%) of the older group and 19 (17.4%) of the younger group could not be classified in any category (absence of fever, absence of joint pain, or both) (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Only 8.2% of the older adults presenting in the acute phase of CHIKV have typical forms, suggesting that the most-frequent clinical presentation of CHIKV in older adults differs from that in younger individuals.

Global yellow fever vaccination coverage from 1970 to 2016: an adjusted retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola and Brazil in the past 2 years, combined with global shortages in vaccine stockpiles, highlight a pressing need to assess present control strategies. The aims of this study were to estimate global yellow fever vaccination coverage from 1970 through to 2016 at high spatial resolution and to calculate the number of individuals still requiring vaccination to reach population coverage thresholds for outbreak prevention. METHODS: For this adjusted retrospective analysis, we compiled data from a range of sources (eg, WHO reports and health-service-provider registeries) reporting on yellow fever vaccination activities between May 1, 1939, and Oct 29, 2016. To account for uncertainty in how vaccine campaigns were targeted, we calculated three population coverage values to encompass alternative scenarios. We combined these data with demographic information and tracked vaccination coverage through time to estimate the proportion of the population who had ever received a yellow fever vaccine for each second level administrative division across countries at risk of yellow fever virus transmission from 1970 to 2016. FINDINGS: Overall, substantial increases in vaccine coverage have occurred since 1970, but notable gaps still exist in contemporary coverage within yellow fever risk zones. We estimate that between 393·7 million and 472·9 million people still require vaccination in areas at risk of yellow fever virus transmission to achieve the 80% population coverage threshold recommended by WHO; this represents between 43% and 52% of the population within yellow fever risk zones, compared with between 66% and 76% of the population who would have required vaccination in 1970. INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight important gaps in yellow fever vaccination coverage, can contribute to improved quantification of outbreak risk, and help to guide planning of future vaccination efforts and emergency stockpiling. FUNDING: The Rhodes Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health, the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

Epidemiology of Chikungunya in the Americas.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in the Americas in late 2013 to cause substantial acute and chronic morbidity. About 1.1 million cases of chikungunya were reported within a year, including severe cases and deaths. The burden of chikungunya is unclear owing to inadequate disease surveillance and underdiagnosis. Virus evolution, globalization, and climate change may further CHIKV spread. No approved vaccine or antiviral therapeutics exist. Early detection and appropriate management could reduce the burden of severe atypical and chronic arthritic disease. Improved surveillance and risk assessment are needed to mitigate the impact of chikungunya.

Perspectives and Challenges in Entomological Risk Assessment and Vector Control of Chikungunya.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is primarily spread by the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito vectors. Because there is no licensed vaccine for CHIKV, identifying ways to reduce or eliminate mosquito populations is the most effective strategy to immediately halt transmission to man. Strategies to assess the entomological risk and to control the vector are absolutely crucial to demolishing the rise of CHIKV. This review provides perspectives in entomological risk assessment and vector control, challenges for both, and gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed through rigorous research and multidisciplinary collaborations.

Chikungunya in the Americas: Recommendations and Conclusions.

Discovered in 1953, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) circulated in Africa and Southeast Asia, with periodic outbreaks, for many years. Highly efficient transmission following a genetic mutation of the virus in 2005 caused its global spread. Associated with significant morbidity, CHIKV creates a large public health burden, and despite various efforts, there are currently no licensed vaccines nor specific treatments. To garner a better understanding of the virus, identify gaps in knowledge, and guide the development of more-effective interventions, the World Health Organization and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases assembled global experts for discussion and review. Herein described are the outcomes.

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

BACKGROUND: Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. METHODS: A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. RESULTS: Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk.

Yellow Fever in Africa: estimating the burden of disease and impact of mass vaccination from outbreak and serological data.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%-31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys. CONCLUSIONS: With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.

Risk of yellow fever vaccine-associated viscerotropic disease among the elderly: a systematic review.

Yellow fever vaccine-associated viscerotropic disease (YEL-AVD) is a rare and serious adverse event of the yellow fever (YF) vaccine that mimics wild-type YF. Research shows there may be an increased risk of YEL-AVD among the elderly population (≥ 60-65 years old), however this research has yet to be accumulated and reviewed in order to make policy recommendations to countries currently administering the YF vaccine. This paper systematically reviewed all information available on YEL-AVD to determine if there is an increased risk among the elderly, for both travelers and endemic populations. Age-specific reporting rates (RRs) were re-calculated from the literature using the Brighton Collaboration case definition for YEL-AVD and were then analyzed to determine if there was a significant difference between the RRs of younger and older age groups. Two out of the five studies found a significantly higher rate of YEL-AVD among the elderly population. Our findings suggest unexposed elders may be at an increased risk of developing YEF-AVD, however the evidence remains limited. Therefore, our findings for YF vaccination of elderly populations support the recommendations made by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) in their April 2013 meeting, mainly vaccination of the elderly should be based on a careful risk-benefit analysis.

Efficacy and duration of immunity after yellow fever vaccination: systematic review on the need for a booster every 10 years.

Abstract. Current regulations stipulate a yellow fever (YF) booster every 10 years. We conducted a systematic review of the protective efficacy and duration of immunity of YF vaccine in residents of disease-endemic areas and in travelers to assess the need for a booster in these two settings and in selected populations (human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons, infants, children, pregnant women, and severely malnourished persons). Thirty-six studies and 22 reports were included. We identified 12 studies of immunogenicity, 8 of duration of immunity, 8 of vaccine response in infants and children, 7 of human-immunodeficiency virus-infected persons, 2 of pregnant women, and 1 of severely malnourished children. Based on currently available data, a single dose of YF vaccine is highly immunogenic and confers sustained life-long protective immunity against YF. Therefore, a booster dose of YF vaccine is not needed. Special considerations for selected populations are detailed.

Immunogenicity and safety of yellow fever vaccine among 115 HIV-infected patients after a preventive immunisation campaign in Mali.

The immune response to yellow fever (YF) vaccine and its safety among HIV-infected individuals living in YF endemic areas is not well understood. Following a national YF preventive immunisation campaign in Mali in April 2008, we assessed the immunogenicity and safety of 17D yellow fever vaccine (17DV) among HIV-infected patients in two HIV treatment centres in Bamako, Mali, by testing for neutralising antibodies and identifying serious adverse events following immunisation (AEFI). A YF neutralisation titre (NT) of 1:≥20 was considered to be adequate and protective. A serious AEFI included hospitalisation, any life-threatening condition, or death, occurring within 30 days following 17DV administration. Of 115 HIV-infected patients who reported having received 17DV, 110 (96%) were on combination antiretroviral therapy and 83 patients were tested for neutralising antibodies. Around the time of vaccination, median CD4 cell count was 389 cells/mm(3) (IQR 227-511cells/mm(3)); HIV-RNA was undetectable in 24 of 46 patients tested. Seventy-six (92%) of 83 participants had adequate immune titres 9 months after the immunisation campaign. Previous vaccination or flavivirus exposure could contribute to this finding. No serious AEFI was found in the 115 participants. In this small series, YF vaccine appeared to be immunogenic with a favourable safety profile in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy. Higher CD4 cell counts and suppressed HIV-RNA were associated with the presence of an adequate immune titre and higher NTs.

Leishmaniasis and poverty.

Leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease, has strong but complex links with poverty. The burden of leishmaniasis falls disproportionately on the poorest segments of the global population. Within endemic areas, increased infection risk is mediated through poor housing conditions and environmental sanitation, lack of personal protective measures and economically driven migration and employment that bring nonimmune hosts into contact with infected sand flies. Poverty is associated with poor nutrition and other infectious diseases, which increase the risk that a person (once infected) will progress to the clinically manifested disease. Lack of healthcare access causes delays in appropriate diagnosis and treatment and accentuates leishmaniasis morbidity and mortality, particularly in women. Leishmaniasis diagnosis and treatment are expensive and families must sell assets and take loans to pay for care, leading to further impoverishment and reinforcement of the vicious cycle of disease and poverty. Public investment in treatment and control would decrease the leishmaniasis disease burden and help to alleviate poverty.