Trajectory to local extinction of an isolated dugong population near Okinawa Island, Japan.

A small animal population becomes extinct owing to demographic and environmental stochasticity after declining below the minimum viable population (MVP). However, the actual process of extinction derived by stochastic factors after crossing MVP has not been recorded for long-lived marine mammals. Here, we reconstructed the declining history of a small, isolated population of dugongs in Okinawa over 125 years. The initial population size of approximately 280-420 in the nineteenth century declined to approximately < 100 in 1917 because of overfishing, < 70 in 1979, 11 in 1997, 3 after 2006, and all known individuals disappeared or died by 2019. After 1979, a decline in the natural growth rate has led to extinction. Long-lived animals may persist for a few decades after the population falls below the MVP, at which time active conservation measures, such as captive breeding, should be implemented.

Coupling high-resolution coral bleaching modeling with management practices to identify areas for conservation in a warming climate: Keramashoto National Park (Okinawa Prefecture, Japan).

Increases in sea-surface temperature due to global warming are a major threat to tropical and subtropical corals as exposure to high water temperatures is the primary cause of coral bleaching. To continue receiving high ecosystem services from coral reef ecosystems in the future, it is important to predict the growth conditions of corals and take appropriate countermeasures to protect them at both global and local scales. The Kerama Islands (part of the Nansei Islands, Japan) were selected as the study area. The islands have been designated as a national park and attract substantial tourism, which utilizes the coral reef ecosystem. The selected study site is significant as it is known to act as a source of coral larvae for the surrounding area. In this study, coral bleaching and mortality rates under present and +1.5 °C/+2.0 °C water temperature conditions were estimated using a 1) three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with a spatial resolution of 100 m and 2) statistical model describing the relationship between various environmental parameters and coral bleaching and mortality rates. Applying a local hydrodynamic model enabled us to obtain high-resolution spatial and temporal variations in water temperature and current speed, and these data were used to obtain statistical model data. Coral conservation sites were prioritized based on 1) projections of the spatial distribution of bleaching and mortality rates under global warming conditions and 2) locations of the main diving and conservation points, with the intention of continuing the present use and management locations. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the management of coral reef ecosystems through conservation and adaptation strategies at local scales.

Anthropogenic Anoxic History of the Tuvalu Atoll Recorded as Annual Black Bands in Coral.

Atoll islands are small, low-lying and highly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). Because these islands are fully composed of the skeletons from coral reef creatures, the healthy coral ecosystem plays a pivotal role in island resilience against SLR. The environmental deterioration of reefs caused by increases in the human population has been recently reported, but the timing and process are unknown. We investigated the annual black bands in a coral boring core from Fongafale Island, the capital of Tuvalu, which is a symbolic atoll country that is being submerged due to SLR. The iron redox state and microbial gene segments in the coral skeleton might be new environmental indicators that reveal the linkage between anthropogenic activity and coral reef ecosystems. Our findings provide the first demonstration that iron sulfide has formed concentrated black layers since 1991 under the seasonal anoxic conditions inside coral annual bands. Since the 1990s, increasing human activity and domestic waste-induced eutrophication has promoted sludge and/or turf algae proliferation with the subsequent seasonal destruction, resulting in sulfate reduction by anaerobic bacteria. With the recent climate variability, these anthropogenic effects have induced the mass mortality of branching corals, deteriorated the coral reef ecosystem and deprived the resilience of the island against SLR.

The potential role of temperate Japanese regions as refugia for the coral Acropora hyacinthus in the face of climate change.

As corals in tropical regions are threatened by increasing water temperatures, poleward range expansion of reef-building corals has been observed, and temperate regions are expected to serve as refugia in the face of climate change. To elucidate the important indicators of the sustainability of coral populations, we examined the genetic diversity and connectivity of the common reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus along the Kuroshio Current, including recently expanded (<50 years) populations. Among the three cryptic lineages found, only one was distributed in temperate regions, which could indicate the presence of Kuroshio-associated larval dispersal barriers between temperate and subtropical regions, as shown by oceanographic simulations as well as differences in environmental factors. The level of genetic diversity gradually decreased towards the edge of the species distribution. This study provides an example of the reduced genetic diversity in recently expanded marginal populations, thus indicating the possible vulnerability of these populations to environmental changes. This finding underpins the importance of assessing the genetic diversity of newly colonized populations associated with climate change for conservation purposes. In addition, this study highlights the importance of pre-existing temperate regions as coral refugia, which has been rather underappreciated in local coastal management.

Reconstruction of anthropogenic 129I temporal variation in the Japan Sea using a coral core sample.

The anthropogenic long-lived radionuclide 129I is receiving increased attraction as a new oceanic tracer in addition to usage as a fingerprint of radionuclide contamination of the marine environment. To demonstrate the robustness of 129I as an oceanic tracer in the Northwest Pacific area, specifically in the Japan Sea, the input history of 129I to surface seawater was reconstructed using a hermatypic coral core sample from Iki Island in the Tsushima strait. Iodine isotopes in each annual band were measured using AMS and ICP-MS after appropriate pre-treatments of small amounts of coral powder. The 129I/127I ratios in the 1940s were almost at background levels (<1 × 10-11) and increased abruptly in the early 1950s. Thereafter, the ratios continuously increased with some fluctuations; the maximum ratio, 7.13 ±â€¯0.72 × 10-11, being found in the late 1990s. After that period, the ratios remained nearly constant until the present time (2011). The 129I originated mainly from the nuclear weapons testings of the 1950s and the early 1960s, and from airborne releasing by nuclear reprocessing facilities. The dataset obtained here was used to construct a simple model to estimate the diffusion coefficient of 129I in the Japan Sea. The 129I/236U ratios over the observation period were also reconstructed to help constraining sources of 129I to the marine environment. Based on the results, the 129I/236U ratio obtained here could be an endmember of the water mass in the Kuroshio Current area of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

Ocean currents and herbivory drive macroalgae-to-coral community shift under climate warming.

Coral and macroalgal communities are threatened by global stressors. However, recently reported community shifts from temperate macroalgae to tropical corals offer conservation potential for corals at the expense of macroalgae under climate warming. Although such community shifts are expanding geographically, our understanding of the driving processes is still limited. Here, we reconstruct long-term climate-driven range shifts in 45 species of macroalgae, corals, and herbivorous fishes from over 60 years of records (mainly 1950-2015), stretching across 3,000 km of the Japanese archipelago from tropical to subarctic zones. Based on a revised coastal version of climate velocity trajectories, we found that prediction models combining the effects of climate and ocean currents consistently explained observed community shifts significantly better than those relying on climate alone. Corals and herbivorous fishes performed better at exploiting opportunities offered by this interaction. The contrasting range dynamics for these taxa suggest that ocean warming is promoting macroalgal-to-coral shifts both directly by increased competition from the expansion of tropical corals into the contracting temperate macroalgae, and indirectly via deforestation by the expansion of tropical herbivorous fish. Beyond individual species' effects, our results provide evidence on the important role that the interaction between climate warming and external forces conditioning the dispersal of organisms, such as ocean currents, can have in shaping community-level responses, with concomitant changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. Furthermore, we found that community shifts from macroalgae to corals might accelerate with future climate warming, highlighting the complexity of managing these evolving communities under future climate change.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.

Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios.

Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E. cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E. cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year-round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E. cava by the 2090s, due to both high-temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E. cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.

Influence of land development on Holocene Porites coral calcification at Nagura Bay, Ishigaki Island, Japan.

To evaluate the relationships between coral calcification, thermal stress, and sedimentation and eutrophication linked to human impact (hereafter referred to as "land development") by river discharge, we analyzed growth characteristics in the context of a paleoenvironment that was reconstructed from geochemical signals in modern and fossil (1.2 cal kyr BP and 3.5 cal kyr BP, respectively) massive Porites corals from Nagura Bay ("Nagura") and from modern Porites corals from the estuary of the Todoroki River, Shiraho Reef ("Todoroki"). Both sites are on Ishigaki Island, Japan, and Nagura is located approximately 12 km west of Todoroki. At Nagura, the individual corals provide time windows of 13 (modern), 10 (1.2 cal kyr BP), and 38 yr in length (3.5 cal kyr BP). Here, we present the coral annual calcification for Nagura and Todoroki, and (bi) monthly resolved records of Sr/Ca (a proxy of sea surface temperature (SST)) and Ba/Ca (a proxy of sedimentation and nutrients related to land development) for Nagura. At Nagura, the winter SST was cooler by 2.8°C in the 1.2 cal kyr BP, and the annual and winter SSTs in the 3.5 cal kyr BP were cooler by 2.6°C and 4.6°C, respectively. The annual periodicity of Ba/Ca in modern coral is linked to river discharge and is associated with land development including sugar cane cultivation. Modern coral calcification also has declined with SST warming and increasing Ba/Ca peaks in winter. However, calcification of fossil corals does not appear to have been influenced by variations in Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca. Modern coral growth characteristics at Nagura and Todoroki indicate that coral growth is both spatially and temporally influenced by river discharge and land development. At Nagura, our findings suggest that land development induces negative thermal sensitivity for calcification in winter due to sugar cane harvest, which is a specifically modern phenomenon.

Species-specific responses of corals to bleaching events on anthropogenically turbid reefs on Okinawa Island, Japan, over a 15-year period (1995-2009).

Coral bleaching, triggered by elevated sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) has caused a decline in coral cover and changes in the abundances of corals on reefs worldwide. Coral decline can be exacerbated by the effects of local stressors like turbidity, yet some reefs with a natural history of turbidity can support healthy and resilient coral communities. However, little is known about responses of coral communities to bleaching events on anthropogenically turbid reefs as a result of recent (post World War II) terrestrial runoff. Analysis of region-scale coral cover and species abundance at 17-20 sites on the turbid reefs of Okinawa Island (total of 79 species, 30 genera, and 13 families) from 1995 to 2009 indicates that coral cover decreased drastically, from 24.4% to 7.5% (1.1%/year), subsequent to bleaching events in 1998 and 2001. This dramatic decrease in coral cover corresponded to the demise of Acropora species (e.g., A. digitifera) by 2009, when Acropora had mostly disappeared from turbid reefs on Okinawa Island. In contrast, Merulinidae species (e.g., Dipsastraea pallida/speciosa/favus) and Porites species (e.g., P. lutea/australiensis), which are characterized by tolerance to thermal stress, survived on turbid reefs of Okinawa Island throughout the period. Our results suggest that high turbidity, influenced by recent terrestrial runoff, could have caused a reduction in resilience of Acropora species to severe thermal stress events, because the corals could not have adapted to a relatively recent decline in water quality. The coral reef ecosystems of Okinawa Island will be severely impoverished if Acropora species fail to recover.

Groundwater dynamics of Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu.

Geoelectric and hydrologic surveys during spring tides revealed the spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater quality produced by tidal forcing in Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. The observed low resistivity showed that saline water largely immersed the surficial Holocene aquifer, indicating that there is no thick freshwater lens in Fongafale Islet, unlike in other atoll islands of comparable size. Half of the islet was constructed by reclaiming the original swamp with porous, highly permeable coral blocks; this reclaimed area should not be considered as part of the islet width for calculation of the expected thickness of the freshwater lens. The degree of aquifer salinization depends on the topographic characteristics and the hydrologic controls on the inland propagation of the tidal forcing. Large changes in bulk resistivity and the electrical conductivity of groundwater from wells indicate that periodic salinization in phase with the semidiurnal tides was occurring widely, especially in areas at lower elevation than the high-tide level and in reclaimed areas with high permeability. Thin sheets of nearly fresh and brackish water were observed in the surficial aquifer in areas above the high-tide level and in taro swamps, respectively. The thinness of the brackish and freshwater sheets suggests that the taro swamps and the fresh groundwater resources of the islet are highly vulnerable to salinization from anticipated sea-level rise. An understanding of the inherent geologic and topographic features of an atoll is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the atoll and assess the vulnerability of its water resources to climate change.

Human impacts on large benthic foraminifers near a densely populated area of Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands.

Human impacts on sand-producing, large benthic foraminifers were investigated on ocean reef flats at the northeast Majuro Atoll, Marshall Islands, along a human population gradient. The densities of dominant foraminifers Calcarina and Amphistegina declined with distance from densely populated islands. Macrophyte composition on ocean reef flats differed between locations near sparsely or densely populated islands. Nutrient concentrations in reef-flat seawater and groundwater were high near or on densely populated islands. delta(15)N values in macroalgal tissues indicated that macroalgae in nearshore lagoons assimilate wastewater-derived nitrogen, whereas those on nearshore ocean reef flats assimilate nitrogen from other sources. These results suggest that increases in the human population result in high nutrient loading in groundwater and possibly into nearshore waters. High nutrient inputs into ambient seawater may have both direct and indirect negative effects on sand-producing foraminifers through habitat changes and/or the collapse of algal symbiosis.