Competing and accelerating effects of anthropogenic nutrient inputs on climate-driven changes in ocean carbon and oxygen cycles.

Nutrient inputs from the atmosphere and rivers to the ocean are increased substantially by human activities. However, the effects of increased nutrient inputs are not included in the widely used CMIP5 Earth system models, which introduce bias into model simulations of ocean biogeochemistry. Here, using historical simulations by an Earth system model with perturbed atmospheric and riverine nutrient inputs, we show that the contribution of anthropogenic nutrient inputs to past global changes in ocean biogeochemistry is of similar magnitude to the effect of climate change. Anthropogenic nutrient inputs increase oceanic productivity and carbon uptake, offsetting climate-induced decrease and accelerating climate-driven deoxygenation in the upper ocean. Moreover, accounting for anthropogenic nutrient inputs improves the known carbon budget imbalance and model underestimation of the observed decrease in the global oxygen inventory. Considering the effects of both nutrient inputs and climate change is crucial in assessing anthropogenic impacts on ocean biogeochemistry.

The importance of hydrology in routing terrestrial carbon to the atmosphere via global streams and rivers.

SignificanceStream/river carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has significant spatial and seasonal variations critical for understanding its macroecosystem controls and plumbing of the terrestrial carbon budget. We relied on direct fluvial CO2 partial pressure measurements and seasonally varying gas transfer velocity and river network surface area estimates to resolve reach-level seasonal variations of the flux at the global scale. The percentage of terrestrial primary production (GPP) shunted into rivers that ultimately contributes to CO2 evasion increases with discharge across regions, due to a stronger response in fluvial CO2 evasion to discharge than GPP. This highlights the importance of hydrology, in particular water throughput, in terrestrial-fluvial carbon transfers and the need to account for this effect in plumbing the terrestrial carbon budget.

Evaluation of cold snare polypectomy for small pedunculated (Ip) polyps with thin stalks: a prospective clinical feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Although the use of cold snare polypectomy (CSP) has spread rapidly, no prospective studies evaluating the safety of CSP for pedunculated (Ip) polyps have been carried out. AIM: We performed this study to provide an accurate evaluation of the safety of CSP for Ip polyps. METHODS: This is a prospective study (UMIN000035687). From January 2019 to February 2021, the safety of CSP for use on Ip polyps <10 mm with thin stalks was evaluated at our hospital. The primary outcome measure was the incidence of bleeding (delayed post-polypectomy bleeding (DPPB) and immediate bleeding). RESULTS: During the study period, 89 consecutive patients (including 92 colonoscopies and 114 polyps) were prospectively enrolled. The en-bloc resection rate was 100%. The rate of DPPB after CSP was 0%, however, DPPB after conversion to HSP occurred in 1 case (33.3% (1/3)). The rate of immediate bleeding during CSP was 28.9% (33/114). Polyps with diameters ≥6 mm (OR (95% CI): 2.77 (1.041-7.376); p = .041) were extracted as independent risk factors for immediate bleeding during CSP for Ip polyps. In all, 104 (91.2%) polyps were low-grade adenomas, and the percentage of cases with negative pathological margins was 96.5% (110/114). CONCLUSIONS: CSP for Ip polyps was safe and had good outcomes. We believe that Ip polyps could be included as an indication for CSP, and that CSP may become the next step in the 'cold revolution.' To confirm our results and verify CSP's inclusion in future guidelines, prospective, randomized studies are necessary.

Applicability of a nationwide flood forecasting system for Typhoon Hagibis 2019.

Floods can be devastating in densely populated regions along rivers, so attaining a longer forecast lead time with high accuracy is essential for protecting people and property. Although many techniques are used to forecast floods, sufficient validation of the use of a forecast system for operational alert purposes is lacking. In this study, we validated the flooding locations and times of dike breaking that had occurred during Typhoon Hagibis, which caused severe flooding in Japan in 2019. To achieve the goal of the study, we combined a hydrodynamic model with statistical analysis under forcing by a 39-h prediction of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Meso-scale model Grid Point Value (MSM-GPV) and obtained dike-break times for all flooded locations for validation. The results showed that this method was accurate in predicting floods at 130 locations, approximately 91.6% of the total of 142 flooded locations, with a lead time of approximately 32.75 h. In terms of precision, these successfully predicted locations accounted for 24.0% of the total of 542 locations under a flood warning, and on average, the predicted flood time was approximately 8.53 h earlier than a given dike-break time. More warnings were issued for major rivers with severe flooding, indicating that the system is sensitive to extreme flood events and can issue warnings for rivers subject to high risk of flooding.

Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections.

Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new generation of climate models, the collectively known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are similar to those estimated by CMIP5. The spatial patterns of the multi-model median signs of change (+ or -) were also very consistent, implying greater confidence in the projections. The model spread changed little over the course of model development, suggesting irreducibility of the model spread due to internal climate variability, and the consistent projections of models from the same institute suggest the potential to reduce uncertainties caused by model differences. Potential global exposure to flooding is projected to be proportional to the degree of warming, and a greater threat is anticipated as populations increase, demonstrating the need for immediate decisions.

A new vector-based global river network dataset accounting for variable drainage density.

Spatial variability of river network drainage density (Dd) is a key feature of river systems, yet few existing global hydrography datasets have properly accounted for it. Here, we present a new vector-based global hydrography that reasonably estimates the spatial variability of Dd worldwide. It is built by delineating channels from the latest 90-m Multi-Error-Removed Improved Terrain (MERIT) digital elevation model and flow direction/accumulation. A machine learning approach is developed to estimate Dd based on the global watershed-level climatic, topographic, hydrologic, and geologic conditions, where relationships between hydroclimate factors and Dd are trained using the high-quality National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2) data. By benchmarking our dataset against HydroSHEDS and several regional hydrography datasets, we show the new river flowlines are in much better agreement with Landsat-derived centerlines, and improved Dd patterns of river networks (totaling ~75 million kilometers in length) are obtained. Basins and estimates of intermittent stream fraction are also delineated to support water resources management. This new dataset (MERIT Hydro-Vector) should enable full global modeling of river system processes at fine spatial resolutions.

Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change.

Globally, flood risk is projected to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. Here, we quantify the role of dams in flood mitigation, previously unaccounted for in global flood studies, by simulating the floodplain dynamics and flow regulation by dams. We show that, ignoring flow regulation by dams, the average number of people exposed to flooding below dams amount to 9.1 and 15.3 million per year, by the end of the 21st century (holding population constant), for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0, respectively. Accounting for dams reduces the number of people exposed to floods by 20.6 and 12.9% (for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). While environmental problems caused by dams warrant further investigations, our results indicate that consideration of dams significantly affect the estimation of future population exposure to flood, emphasizing the need to integrate them in model-based impact analysis of climate change.

Fine-Structure Analysis of Perhydropolysilazane-Derived Nano Layers in Deep-Buried Condition Using Polarized Neutron Reflectometry.

A large background scattering originating from the sample matrix is a major obstacle for fine-structure analysis of a nanometric layer buried in a bulk material. As polarization analysis can decrease undesired scattering in a neutron reflectivity (NR) profile, we performed NR experiments with polarization analysis on a polypropylene (PP)/perhydropolysilazane-derived SiO2 (PDS)/Si substrate sample, having a deep-buried layer of SiO2 to elucidate the fine structure of the nano-PDS layer. This method offers unique possibilities for increasing the amplitude of the Kiessig fringes in the higher scattering vector (Qz) region of the NR profiles in the sample by decreasing the undesired background scattering. Fitting and Fourier transform analysis results of the NR data indicated that the synthesized PDS layer remained between the PP plate and Si substrate with a thickness of approximately 109 Å. Furthermore, the scattering length density of the PDS layer, obtained from the background subtracted data appeared to be more accurate than that obtained from the raw data. Although the density of the PDS layer was lower than that of natural SiO2, the PDS thin layer had adequate mechanical strength to maintain a uniform PDS layer in the depth-direction under the deep-buried condition.

Global Reconstruction of Naturalized River Flows at 2.94 Million Reaches.

Spatiotemporally continuous global river discharge estimates across the full spectrum of stream orders are vital to a range of hydrologic applications, yet they remain poorly constrained. Here we present a carefully designed modeling effort (Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model and Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge river routing model) to estimate global river discharge at very high resolutions. The precipitation forcing is from a recently published 0.1° global product that optimally merged gauge-, reanalysis-, and satellite-based data. To constrain runoff simulations, we use a set of machine learning-derived, global runoff characteristics maps (i.e., runoff at various exceedance probability percentiles) for grid-by-grid model calibration and bias correction. To support spaceborne discharge studies, the river flowlines are defined at their true geometry and location as much as possible-approximately 2.94 million vector flowlines (median length 6.8 km) and unit catchments are derived from a high-accuracy global digital elevation model at 3-arcsec resolution (~90 m), which serves as the underlying hydrography for river routing. Our 35-year daily and monthly model simulations are evaluated against over 14,000 gauges globally. Among them, 35% (64%) have a percentage bias within ±20% (±50%), and 29% (62%) have a monthly Kling-Gupta Efficiency ≥0.6 (0.2), showing data robustness at the scale the model is assessed. This reconstructed discharge record can be used as a priori information for the Surface Water and Ocean Topography satellite mission's discharge product, thus named "Global Reach-level A priori Discharge Estimates for Surface Water and Ocean Topography". It can also be used in other hydrologic applications requiring spatially explicit estimates of global river flows.

Potential Disruption of Flood Dynamics in the Lower Mekong River Basin Due to Upstream Flow Regulation.

The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the recent acceleration in large-scale dam construction. While the hydrology of the MRB is well understood and the effects of some of the existing dams have been studied, the potential effects of the planned dams on flood pulse dynamics over the entire Lower Mekong remains unexamined. Here, using hydrodynamic model simulations, we show that the effects of flow regulation on downstream river-floodplain dynamics are relatively predictable along the mainstream Mekong, but flow regulations could potentially disrupt the flood dynamics in the Tonle Sap River (TSR) and small distributaries in the Mekong Delta. Results suggest that TSR flow reversal could cease if the Mekong flood pulse is dampened by 50% and delayed by one-month. While flood occurrence in the vicinity of the Tonle Sap Lake and middle reach of the delta could increase due to enhanced low flow, it could decrease by up to five months in other areas due to dampened high flow, particularly during dry years. Further, areas flooded for less than five months and over six months are likely to be impacted significantly by flow regulations, but those flooded for 5-6 months could be impacted the least.

Estimating monthly total nitrogen concentration in streams by using artificial neural network.

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a flexible and popular tool for predicting the non-linear behavior in the environmental system. Here, the feed-forward ANN model was used to investigate the relationship among the land use, fertilizer, and hydrometerological conditions in 59 river basins over Japan and then applied to estimate the monthly river total nitrogen concentration (TNC). It was shown by the sensitivity analysis, that precipitation, temperature, river discharge, forest area and urban area have high relationships with TNC. The ANN structure having eight inputs and one hidden layer with seven nodes gives the best estimate of TNC. The 1:1 scatter plots of predicted versus measured TNC were closely aligned and provided coefficients of errors of 0.98 and 0.93 for ANNs calibration and validation, respectively. From the results obtained, the ANN model gave satisfactory predictions of stream TNC and appears to be a useful tool for prediction of TNC in Japanese streams. It indicates that the ANN model was able to provide accurate estimates of nitrogen concentration in streams. Its application to such environmental data will encourage further studies on prediction of stream TNC in ungauged rivers and provide a useful tool for water resource and environment managers to obtain a quick preliminary assessment of TNC variations.

[Case of small cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder effectively treated with adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy following TUR].

A 82-year-old man was referred to our hospital with a chief complaint of macrohematuria and pollakisuria. Cystoscopy showed an abnormal mucosa on the right wall. We suspected carcinoma in situ but two months after cystoscopy showed a non-papillary and sessile tumor with calcification. We performed transurethral resection of the bladder tumor, muscle layer and adipose tissue. Histopathological findings revealed small cell carcinoma of the bladder infiltrating the externaladipose tissue. As postoperative adjuvant therapy, chemotherapy (cisplatin total 150 mg) was performed with 40 Gy of extra beam radiotherapy to the bladder. After chemotherapy and radiotherapy,urinary cytology was negative and cystoscopy showed the scar. Follow up magnetic resonance imaging revealed disappearance of the bladder tumor.

Figuring of plano-elliptical neutron focusing mirror by local wet etching.

Local wet etching technique was proposed to fabricate high-performance aspherical mirrors. In this process, only the limited area facing to the small nozzle is removed by etching on objective surface. The desired objective shape is deterministically fabricated by performing the numerically controlled scanning of the nozzle head. Using the technique, a plano-elliptical mirror to focus the neutron beam was successfully fabricated with the figure accuracy of less than 0.5 microm and the focusing gain of 6. The strong and thin focused neutron beam is expected to be a useful tool for the analyses of various material properties.