Development of Efficient Brain Age Estimation Method Based on Regional Brain Volume From Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create an efficient and valid predicting model which can estimate individuals' brain age by quantifying their regional brain volumes. METHODS: A total of 2,560 structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, along with demographic and clinical data, were obtained. Pretrained deep-learning models were employed to automatically segment the MRI data, which enabled fast calculation of regional brain volumes. Brain age gaps for each subject were estimated using volumetric values from predefined 12 regions of interest (ROIs): bilateral frontal, parietal, occipital, and temporal lobes, as well as bilateral hippocampus and lateral ventricles. A larger weight was given to the ROIs having a larger mean volumetric difference between the cognitively unimpaired (CU) and cognitively impaired group including mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia groups. The brain age was predicted by adding or subtracting the brain age gap to the chronological age according to the presence or absence of the atrophy region. RESULTS: The study showed significant differences in brain age gaps among CU, MCI, and dementia groups. Furthermore, the brain age gaps exhibited significant correlations with education level and measures of cognitive function, including the clinical dementia rating sum-of-boxes and the Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination. CONCLUSION: The brain age that we developed enabled fast and efficient brain age calculations, and it also reflected individual's cognitive function and cognitive reserve. Thus, our study suggested that the brain age might be an important marker of brain health that can be used effectively in real clinical settings.

Magnetic resonance image-based brain age as a discriminator of dementia conversion in patients with amyloid-negative amnestic mild cognitive impairment.

Patients with amyloid-negative amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) have a conversion rate of approximately 10% to dementia within 2 years. We aimed to investigate whether brain age is an important factor in predicting conversion to dementia in patients with amyloid-negative amnestic MCI. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with amyloid-negative amnestic MCI. All participants underwent detailed neuropsychological evaluation, brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and [18F]-florbetaben positron emission tomography. Brain age was determined by the volumetric assessment of 12 distinct brain regions using an automatic segmentation software. During the follow-up period, 38% of the patients converted from amnestic MCI to dementia. Further, 73% of patients had a brain age greater than their actual chronological age. When defining 'survival' as the non-conversion of MCI to dementia, these groups differed significantly in survival probability (p = 0.036). The low-educated female group with a brain age greater than their actual age had the lowest survival rate among all groups. Our findings suggest that the MRI-based brain age used in this study can contribute to predicting conversion to dementia in patients with amyloid-negative amnestic MCI.

A regional brain volume-based age prediction model for neonates and the derived brain maturation index.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a postmenstrual age (PMA) prediction model based on segmentation volume and to evaluate the brain maturation index using the proposed model. METHODS: Neonatal brain MRIs without clinical illness or structural abnormalities were collected from four datasets from the Developing Human Connectome Project, the Catholic University of Korea, Hammersmith Hospital (HS), and Dankook University Hospital (DU). T1- and T2-weighted images were used to train a brain segmentation model. Another model to predict the PMA of neonates based on segmentation data was developed. Accuracy was assessed using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean error (ME). The brain maturation index was calculated as the difference between the PMA predicted by the model and the true PMA, and its correlation with postnatal age was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 247 neonates (mean gestation age 37 ± 4 weeks; range 24-42 weeks) were included. Thirty-one features were extracted from each neonate and the three most contributing features for PMA prediction were the right lateral ventricle, left caudate, and corpus callosum. The predicted and true PMA were positively correlated (coefficient = 0.88, p < .001). MAE, RMSE, and ME of the external dataset of HS and DU were 1.57 and 1.33, 1.79 and 1.37, and 0.37 and 0.06 weeks, respectively. The brain maturation index negatively correlated with postnatal age (coefficient = - 0.24, p < .001). CONCLUSION: A model that calculates the regional brain volume can predict the PMA of neonates, which can then be utilized to show the brain maturation degree. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: A brain maturity index based on regional volume of neonate's brain can be used to measure brain maturation degree, which can help identify the status of early brain development. KEY POINTS: • Neonatal brain MRI segmentation model could be used to assess neonatal brain maturation status. • A postmenstrual age (PMA) prediction model was developed based on a neonatal brain MRI segmentation model. • The brain maturation index, derived from the PMA prediction model, enabled the estimation of the neonatal brain maturation status.

Real-Time Clinical Decision Support Based on Recurrent Neural Networks for In-Hospital Acute Kidney Injury: External Validation and Model Interpretation.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is commonly encountered in clinical practice and is associated with poor patient outcomes and increased health care costs. Despite it posing significant challenges for clinicians, effective measures for AKI prediction and prevention are lacking. Previously published AKI prediction models mostly have a simple design without external validation. Furthermore, little is known about the process of linking model output and clinical decisions due to the black-box nature of neural network models. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to present an externally validated recurrent neural network (RNN)-based continuous prediction model for in-hospital AKI and show applicable model interpretations in relation to clinical decision support. METHODS: Study populations were all patients aged 18 years or older who were hospitalized for more than 48 hours between 2013 and 2017 in 2 tertiary hospitals in Korea (Seoul National University Bundang Hospital and Seoul National University Hospital). All demographic data, laboratory values, vital signs, and clinical conditions of patients were obtained from electronic health records of each hospital. We developed 2-stage hierarchical prediction models (model 1 and model 2) using RNN algorithms. The outcome variable for model 1 was the occurrence of AKI within 7 days from the present. Model 2 predicted the future trajectory of creatinine values up to 72 hours. The performance of each developed model was evaluated using the internal and external validation data sets. For the explainability of our models, different model-agnostic interpretation methods were used, including Shapley Additive Explanations, partial dependence plots, individual conditional expectation, and accumulated local effects plots. RESULTS: We included 69,081 patients in the training, 7675 in the internal validation, and 72,352 in the external validation cohorts for model development after excluding cases with missing data and those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or end-stage kidney disease. Model 1 predicted any AKI development with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.88 (internal validation) and 0.84 (external validation), and stage 2 or higher AKI development with an AUC of 0.93 (internal validation) and 0.90 (external validation). Model 2 predicted the future creatinine values within 3 days with mean-squared errors of 0.04-0.09 for patients with higher risks of AKI and 0.03-0.08 for those with lower risks. Based on the developed models, we showed AKI probability according to feature values in total patients and each individual with partial dependence, accumulated local effects, and individual conditional expectation plots. We also estimated the effects of feature modifications such as nephrotoxic drug discontinuation on future creatinine levels. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a continuous AKI prediction model using RNN algorithms. Our model could provide real-time assessment of future AKI occurrences and individualized risk factors for AKI in general inpatient cohorts; thus, we suggest approaches to support clinical decisions based on prediction models for in-hospital AKI.