RESUMO
This study discusses the changes in the daily average concentrations of the main air pollutants, such as PM10, PM2.5, O3, and NO2, in Shanghai, and the effects of air pollution on cold in Shanghai. For this study, data on air pollutants, meteorological factors, and the number of daily hospital visits from cold in Shanghai were collected from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. Using the time series Poisson semi-parametric generalized additive model, and controlling for the long-term trend, "week" effect, and meteorological factors by smoothing the spline function, the exposure-response relationship between air pollution and human health in Shanghai was analyzed. The study sets up the model according to age, evaluating the impact and the lag effect of air pollution on the number of daily hospital visits. Results show that when PM10, NO2, O3, and PM2.5 increase by an IQR, the relative risk of cold disease is 1.0240 (1.0233-1.0246), 1.0206 (1.0201-1.0212), 0.9393 (0.9384-0.9402), and 1.0080 (1.0069-1.0086), and when PM10, NO2, O3, and PM2.5 increase by 10 µg·m-3, the daily hospital visits increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, -2.0%, and 0.2%. In the multi-polluted model, the results of NO2 and PM2.5 are basically lower compared to the results of the single-pollutant model, the results of PM10 and O3are higher. Air pollution in Shanghai has an impact on the incidence of cold disease.