Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study.

Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method: A seasonal Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (R t ). Results: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of R t  = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). R t was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with R t . Conclusion: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.

Phenolic glycosides from Sanguisorba officinalis and their anti-inflammatory effects.

Two new phenolic glycosides 7R,8R-threo-4,7,9,9'-tetrahydroxy-3-methoxy-8-O-4'-neolignan-3'-O-(3''-α-L-arabinofuranosyl)-ß-D-glucopyranoside. (1), 4-(4'-hydroxyphenyl)-2-butanone-4''-O-(6-ß-D-xylosyl)-ß-D-glucopyranoside (2), along with two known related analogues 7R,8R-threo-4,7,9,9'-tetrahydroxy-3-methoxy-8-O-4'-neolignan-3'-O-ß-D-glucopyranoside (3), 4-(4'-hydroxyphenyl)-2-butanone-4'-O-ß-D-glucopyranoside (4) were obtained from the roots of Sanguisorba officinalis. Combined with acid hydrolysis derivatization, the absolute configurations of these new compounds were elucidated by comprehensive analyses of spectroscopic data including nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), electrospray ionization high resolution mass (HRESIMS) as well as circular dichroism (CD). Compounds 1-4 exhibited anti-inflammatory properties in vitro by attenuating the production of inflammatory mediators, such as nitric oxide (NO) as well as tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6).

The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.

BACKGROUND: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China. METHODS: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups. RESULTS: A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.

Feasibility of controlling hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province, China: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E, an acute zoonotic disease caused by the hepatitis E virus (HEV), has a relatively high burden in developing countries. The current research model on hepatitis E mainly uses experimental animal models (such as pigs, chickens, and rabbits) to explain the transmission of HEV. Few studies have developed a multi-host and multi-route transmission dynamic model (MHMRTDM) to explore the transmission feature of HEV. Hence, this study aimed to explore its transmission and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention using the dataset of Jiangsu Province. METHODS: We developed a dataset comprising all reported HEV cases in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2018. The MHMRTDM was developed according to the natural history of HEV cases among humans and pigs and the multi-transmission routes such as person-to-person, pig-to-person, and environment-to-person. We estimated the key parameter of the transmission using the principle of least root mean square to fit the curve of the MHMRTDM to the reported data. We developed models with single or combined countermeasures to assess the effectiveness of interventions, which include vaccination, shortening the infectious period, and cutting transmission routes. The indicator, total attack rate (TAR), was adopted to assess the effectiveness. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2018, 44 923 hepatitis E cases were reported in Jiangsu Province. The model fits the data well (R2 = 0.655, P < 0.001). The incidence of the disease in Jiangsu Province and its cities peaks are around March; however, transmissibility of the disease peaks in December and January. The model showed that the most effective intervention was interrupting the pig-to-person route during the incidence trough of September, thereby reducing the TAR by 98.11%, followed by vaccination (reducing the TAR by 76.25% when the vaccination coefficient is 100%) and shortening the infectious period (reducing the TAR by 50.05% when the infectious period is shortened to 15 days). CONCLUSIONS: HEV could be controlled by interrupting the pig-to-person route, shortening the infectious period, and vaccination. Among these interventions, the most effective was interrupting the pig-to-person route.

Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy. METHODS: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f). RESULTS: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%). CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.

Two new nor-sesquiterpenoids from Fusarium tricinctum, an endophytic fungus isolated from Ligusticum chuanxiong.

As part of our search for compounds with cytotoxicity from endophytes of traditional Chinese medicines, two novel nor-sesquiterpenoids (1-2) with a new skeleton containing a tetrahydrofuran moiety were isolated form a rice medium of Fusarium tricinctum, an endophytic fungus isolated from the root of Ligusticum chuanxiong. The structures of these two previously undescribed compounds were elucidated by interpretation of the spectroscopic evidences including NMR correlations as well as MS data. The absolute configurations of these two compounds were confirmed by TD-DFT-ECD calculations. An MTT assay indicated that compound 1 exhibited moderate cytotoxic activity against MV4-11 with an IC50 value of 22.29 µM.

Determination of human IgG by solid-substrate room-temperature phosphorescence immunoassay based on an antibody labeled with nanoparticles containing rhodamine 6G luminescent molecules.

Luminescent 50-nm silicon dioxide nanoparticles containing both types of rhodamine 6G (R; particles denoted R-SiO2) were synthesized by the sol-gel method. In the presence of Pb(Ac)2 as a heavy atom perturber the particle can emit the intense and stable room-temperature phosphorescence (RTP) signal of R on a polyamide membrane, with lambda(ex)max/ lambda(em)max=470/635 nm for R. Our research indicates that the specific immune reaction between goat-anti-human IgG antibody labeled with R-SiO2 and human IgG can be carried out quantitatively on a polyamide membrane, and the phosphorescence intensity was enhanced after the immunoreaction. Thus a new method for solid-substrate room-temperature phosphorescence immunoassay (SS-RTP-IA) for determination of human IgG was established on the basis of antibody labeled with the nanoparticles containing binary luminescent molecules. The linear range of this method is 0.0624-20.0 pg spot(-1) of human IgG (corresponding to a concentration range of 0.156-50.0 ng mL(-1), sample volume 0.40 microL spot(-1)). The regression equations of the working curves are DeltaIp = 71.27+7.208 m(IgG) (pg spot(-1)) (r = 0.9996). Detection limits calculated as 3 Sb/k are 0.022 pg spot(-1). Compared with the same IA using fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC) as the marker the new method was more sensitive and had a wider linear range. After elevenfold replicate measurement RSD are 4.5 and 3.6% for samples containing 0.156 and 50.0 ng mL(-1) IgG, respectively. This method is sensitive, accurate, and of high precision.