Relationship between onset of peptic ulcer and meteorological factors.

AIM: To discuss the relationship between onset of peptic ulcer (PU) and meteorological factors (MFs). METHODS: A total of 24,252 patients were found with active PU in 104,121 samples of gastroscopic examination from 17 hospitals in Nanning from 1992 to 1997. The detectable rate of PU (DRPU) was calculated every month, every ten days and every five days. An analysis of DRPU and MFs was made in the same period of the year. A forecast model based on MFs of the previous month was established. The real and forecast values were tested and verified. RESULTS: During the 6 years, the DRPU from November to April was 24.4 -28.8%. The peak value (28.8%) was in January. The DRPU from May to October was 20.0-22.6%, with its low peak (20.0%) in June. The DRPU decreased from winter and spring to summer and autumn (P<0.005). The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average temperature value was -0.8704, -0.6624, -0.5384 for one month, ten days , five days respectively (P<0.01). The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average highest temperature value was -0.8000,-0.6470,-0.5167 respectively (P<0.01). The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average lowest temperature value was -0.8091, -0.6617, -0.5384 respectively (P<0.01). The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average dew point temperature was -0.7812, -0.6246, -0.4936 respectively (P<0.01). The correlated coefficient between DRPU and average air pressure value was 0.7320, 0.5777, 0.4579 respectively (P<0.01). The average temperature, average highest and lowest temperature, average air pressure and average dew point temperature value of the previous month, ten days and five days could forecast the onset of PU, with its real and forecast values corresponding to 71.8%, 67.9% and 66.6% respectively. CONCLUSION: DRPU is closely related with the average temperature, average highest and lowest temperature,average air pressure and average dew point temperature of each month, every ten days and every five days for the same period. When MFs are changed, the human body produces a series of stress actions.A long-term and median-term based medical meteorological forecast of the onset of PU can be made more accurately according to this.

Study of the relationship between the onset of peptic ulcers and meteorological factors.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss the relationship between the onset of peptic ulcers (PU) and meteorological factors (MF). METHODS: In reviewing records from 17 hospitals in the city of Nanning from 1992 to 1997, we found 24, 252 cases of PU in 104, 121 samples of gastroscopic examinations. We then calculated the detectable rate of PU (DRPU) during each season every five days (FD) and made a correlated analysis with the seasonal MF during the same period in Nanning. Finally, we made a multiple regressive correlated analysis of DRPU and the 5MF for the same period of the year. A forecast model based on the MF of the previous FD was established. The real value and the forecast value was being tested and verified. RESULTS: From 1992 to 1997, the DRPU is: winter and spring > summer and autumn (P < 0.005). There is a close relationship between the DRPU and the average temperature (AT), the average highest temperature (AHT), the average lowest temperature (ALT), average air pressure (AAP) and the average dew point temperature (ADT) of the five days of the same period of the year (the correlated coefficients are -0.5348, -05167, -0.5384, 0.4579 and -0.4936, respectively), with P < 0.01. The AT, AHT, ALT, AAP and ADT of the previous FD are of great value in forecasting the onset of PU, with its real value and forecast value corresponding to 66.6%. CONCLUSIONS: There exists a close relationship between DRPU and the AT, AHT, ALT, AAP and ADT of the FD for the same period. A mid-term medical meteorological forecast of the onset of PU can be made more accurately and reliably according to the close relation between the DRPU and some MF of the previous FD.