Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival and recurrence after hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced (BCLC stage B/C) hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Despite the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system discouraging hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, the procedure is still performed worldwide, particularly in Asia. This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence for these patients. METHODS: We analyzed patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma between 2010 and 2020 across 3 Chinese hospitals. The Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital cohort was used as the training cohort for the nomogram construction, and the Jilin First Hospital and Fujian Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital cohorts served as the external validation cohorts. Independent preoperative predictors for survival and recurrence were identified through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Predictive accuracy was measured using the concordance index and calibration curves. The predictive performance between nomograms and conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems was compared. RESULTS: A total of 1,328 patients met the inclusion criteria. The nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence were developed using 10 and 6 independent variables, respectively. Nomograms' concordance indices in the training cohort were 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.759-0.800) and 0.719 (95% confidence interval 0.697-0.742) for survival and recurrence, outperforming 4 conventional staging systems (P < .001). Nomograms accurately stratified risk into low, intermediate, and high subgroups. These results were validated well by 2 external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated nomograms predicting survival and recurrence for patients with intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, contradicting Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer surgical guidelines. These nomograms may facilitate clinicians to formulate personalized surgical decisions, estimate long-term prognosis, and strategize neoadjuvant/adjuvant anti-recurrence therapy.

Conversion therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of precision medicine: Current status, challenges and opportunities.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most prevalent malignancy of the digestive tract, is characterized by a high mortality rate and poor prognosis, primarily due to its initial diagnosis at an advanced stage that precludes any surgical intervention. Recent advancements in systemic therapies have significantly improved oncological outcomes for intermediate and advanced-stage HCC, and the combination of locoregional and systemic therapies further facilitates tumor downstaging and increases the likelihood of surgical resectability for initially unresectable cases following conversion therapies. This shift toward high conversion rates with novel, multimodal treatment approaches has become a principal pathway for prolonged survival in patients with advanced HCC. However, the field of conversion therapy for HCC is marked by controversies, including the selection of potential surgical candidates, formulation of conversion therapy regimens, determination of optimal surgical timing, and application of adjuvant therapy post-surgery. Addressing these challenges and refining clinical protocols and research in HCC conversion therapy is essential for setting the groundwork for future advancements in treatment strategies and clinical research. This narrative review comprehensively summarizes the current strategies and clinical experiences in conversion therapy for advanced-stage HCC, emphasizing the unresolved issues and the path forward in the context of precision medicine. This work not only provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving landscape of treatment modalities for conversion therapy but also paves the way for future studies and innovations in this field.

Grading severity of microscopic vascular invasion was independently associated with recurrence and survival following hepatectomy for solitary hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background: Hepatectomy is the preferred treatment for solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without macrovascular invasion and distant metastasis, but long-term survival remains unsatisfactory in certain patients. We sought to identify whether the grading severity of microscopic vascular invasion (MVI) was associated with recurrence and survival among patients with solitary HCC. Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent hepatectomy for solitary HCC were identified from a multicenter prospectively-collected database. Patients were categorized into three groups according to the MVI grading system proposed by the Liver Cancer Pathology Group of China: M0 (no MVI), M1 (1-5 sites of MVI occurring ≤1.0 cm away from the tumor), and M2 (>5 sites occurring ≤1.0 cm or any site occurring >1 cm away from the tumor). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared among the groups. Results: Among 227 patients, 97 (42.7%), 83 (36.6%), and 47 (20.7%) patients had M0, M1, and M2, respectively. Median RFS rates among patients with M0, M1, and M2 were 38.3, 35.1, 11.6 months, respectively, while OS rates were 66.8, 62.3, 30.6 months, respectively (both P<0.001). Multivariate Cox-regression analyses demonstrated that both M1 and M2 were independent risk factors for RFS (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03-1.89, P=0.040; and hazard ratio 1.67, 95% CI: 1.06-2.64, P=0.027) and OS (hazard ratio 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05-2.07, P=0.035; and hazard ratio 1.97, 95% CI: 1.15-3.38, P=0.013). Conclusions: Grading severity of MVI was independently associated with RFS and OS after hepatectomy for solitary HCC. Enhanced surveillance for recurrence and potentially adjuvant therapy may be considered for patients with MVI, especially individuals with more severe MVI grading (M2).

Development and validation of prealbumin-bilirubin score (preALBI score) for predicting long-term survival after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter analysis versus ALBI score.

BACKGROUND: The Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) score, widely used in predicting long-term prognosis for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has limitations due to serum albumin variability. This study aimed to develop and validate the Prealbumin-Bilirubin (preALBI) score as a reliable alternative. METHODS: A multicenter cohort of HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy was randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. The preALBI score was developed using Cox regression models within the training cohort, incorporating serum prealbumin and bilirubin levels as crucial determinants. The survival predictive accuracy was evaluated and compared between the preALBI score with two other staging systems, including the ALBI score and the Child-Pugh grade. RESULTS: A total of 2409 patients were enrolled. In the training cohort, the preALBI score demonstrated superior performance in predicting long-term survival after hepatectomy. The preALBI score was associated with the best monotonicity of gradients (linear trend χ2: 72.84) and homogeneity (likelihood ratio χ2: 74.69), and the highest discriminatory ability (the areas under curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality: 0.663, 0.654, and 0.644, respectively). In addition, the preALBI was the most informative staging system in predicting survival (Akaike information criterion: 11325.65).The results remained consistent in both training and validation cohorts, indicating its reliable performance across different populations. CONCLUSION: The preALBI score, leveraging the stability of prealbumin, represents a promising tool for better patient stratification, providing more accurate prognostic predictions than the ALBI score and the Child-Pugh grade.

Prognostic Value of Serum α-Fetoprotein Level as an Important Characteristic of Tumor Biology for Patients Undergoing Liver Resection of Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma (BCLC Stage 0/A): A Large Multicenter Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) algorithm, tumor burden and liver function, but not tumor biology, are the key factors in determining tumor staging and treatment modality, and evaluating treatment prognosis. The serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level is an important characteristic of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) biology, and we aimed to evaluate its prognostic value for patients undergoing liver resection of early-stage HCC. METHODS: Patients who underwent curative liver resection for early-stage HCC were identified from a multi-institutional database. Patients were divided into three groups according to preoperative AFP levels: low (< 400 ng/mL), high (400-999 ng/mL), and extremely-high (≥ 1000 ng/mL) AFP groups. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence rates were compared among these three groups. RESULTS: Among 1284 patients, 720 (56.1%), 262 (20.4%), and 302 (23.5%) patients had preoperative low, high, and extremely-high AFP levels, respectively. The cumulative 5-year OS and recurrence rates were 71.3 and 38.9% among patients in the low AFP group, 66.3 and 48.5% in the high AFP group, and 45.7 and 67.2% in the extremely-high AFP group, respectively (both p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified both high and extremely-high AFP levels to be independent risk factors of OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.275 and 1.978, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.004-1.620 and 1.588-2.464, respectively; p = 0.047 and p < 0.001, respectively) and recurrence (HR 1.290 and 2.050, 95% CI 1.047-1.588 and 1.692-2.484, respectively; p = 0.017 and p < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the important prognostic value of preoperative AFP levels among patients undergoing resection for early-stage HCC. Incorporating AFP to prognostic estimation of the BCLC algorithm can help guide individualized risk stratification and identify neoadjuvant/adjuvant treatment necessity.

Association of tumor morphology with long-term prognosis after liver resection for patients with a solitary huge hepatocellular carcinoma-a multicenter propensity score matching analysis.

Background: A solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without macrovascular invasion and distant metastasis, regardless of tumor size, is currently classified as early-stage disease by the latest Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system. While the preferred treatment is surgical resection, the association of tumor morphology with long-term survival outcomes after liver resection for a solitary huge HCC of ≥10 cm has not been defined. Methods: Patients who underwent curative liver resection for a solitary huge HCC were identified from a multicenter database. Preoperative imaging findings were used to define spherical- or ellipsoidal-shaped lesions with smooth edges as balloon-shaped HCCs (BS-HCCs); out-of-shape lesions or lesions of any shape with matt edges were defined as non-balloon-shaped HCCs (NBS-HCCs). The two groups of patients with BS-HCCs and NBS-HCCs were matched in a 1:1 ratio using propensity score matching (PSM). Clinicopathologic characteristics, long-term overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were assessed. Results: Among patients with a solitary huge HCC, 74 pairs of patients with BS-HCC and NBS-HCC were matched. Tumor pathological features including proportions of microvascular invasion, satellite nodules, and incomplete tumor encapsulation in the BS-HCC group were lower than the NBS-HCC group. At a median follow-up of 50.7 months, median OS and RFS of all patients with a solitary huge HCC after PSM were 27.8 and 10.1 months, respectively. The BS-HCC group had better median OS and RFS than the NBS-HCC group (31.9 vs. 21.0 months, P=0.01; and 19.7 vs. 6.4 months, P=0.015). Multivariate analyses identified BS-HCC as independently associated with better OS (HR =0.592, P=0.009) and RFS (HR =0.633, P=0.013). Conclusions: For a solitary huge HCC, preoperative imaging on tumor morphology was associated with prognosis following resection. In particular, patients with BS-HCCs had better long-term survival following liver resection versus patients with large NBS-HCCs.

Postoperative infectious complications following laparoscopic versus open hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter propensity score analysis of 3876 patients.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common indication for hepatectomy that is often complicated by postoperative complication. The authors sought to investigate the relationship between the open with laparoscopic approach of hepatectomy and incidences of postoperative infectious complications. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using a multicenter database, HCC patients who underwent laparoscopic hepatectomy (LH) or open hepatectomy (OH) were reviewed and analyzed. Propensity score matching (PSM), inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW), and multivariate logistic regression analyses were utilized to assess the association of the operative approach with postoperative infectious complications, including incisional surgical site infection (SSI), organ/space SSI, and remote infection (RI). RESULTS: Among 3876 patients, 845 (21.8%) and 3031 (78.2%) patients underwent LH and OH, respectively. The overall incidence of infection was 6.9 versus 14.6% among patients who underwent LH versus OH, respectively ( P <0.001). Of note, the incidences of incisional SSI (1.8 vs. 6.3%, P <0.001), organ/space SSI (1.8 vs. 4.6%, P <0.001), and RI (3.8 vs. 9.8%, P <0.001) were all significantly lower among patients who underwent LH versus OH. After PSM (6.9, 1.8, 1.8, and 3.8% vs. 18.5, 8.4, 5.2, and 12.8%, respectively) and IPTW (9.5, 2.3, 2.1, and 5.5% vs. 14.3, 6.3, 4.5, and 9.8%, respectively), LH remained associated with statistically lower incidences of all types of infectious complications. After adjustment for other confounding factors on multivariate analyses, LH remained independently associated with lower incidences of overall infection, incisional SSI, organ/space SSI, and RI in the overall, PSM, and IPTW cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: Compared with open approach, laparoscopic approach was independently associated with lower incidences of postoperative infectious complications following hepatectomy for HCC.

Predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence for patients undergoing hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a large-scale multicenter study.

Background: Recurrence is common among patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which greatly limits long-term survival. We aimed to identify predictors and long-term prognosis of early and late recurrence after HCC resection. Methods: Multicenter data of patients who underwent HCC resection between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed. Recurrence was divided into early (≤2 years) and late recurrence (>2 years after surgery). Predictors of early and late recurrence, and prognostic factors of post-recurrence survival (PRS) were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Among 1,426 patients, 554 (38.8%) and 348 (24.4%) developed early and late recurrence, respectively. Independent predictors associated with early recurrence included preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level >400 µg/L, resection margin <1 cm, and tumor size >5.0 cm, multiplicity, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and satellites of the initial tumor at the first diagnosis of HCC; independent predictors associated with late recurrence included male, cirrhosis, and tumor size >5.0 cm, multiplicity, macrovascular and microvascular invasion, and satellites of the initial tumor. Patients with early recurrence had a lower likelihood of undergoing potentially curative treatments for recurrence (37.2% vs. 48.0%, P<0.001) and a worse median PRS (13.5 vs. 36.6 months, P<0.001) vs. patients who had late recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that early recurrence and irregular postoperative surveillance were independently associated with worse PRS [hazard ratio (HR) =1.250, 95% CI: 1.016-1.538, P=0.035; and HR =1.983, 95% CI: 1.677-2.345, P<0.001]. Conclusions: Predictors associated with early and late recurrence after curative resection for patients with HCC were generally same, although several did differ. Patients with late recurrence had better long-term survival than patients with early recurrence.

Association of severity in the grading of microvascular invasion with long-term oncological prognosis after liver resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter retrospective cohort study from a hepatitis B virus-endemic area.

BACKGROUND: The presence of microvascular invasion (MVI) is a significant malignant pathological feature related to recurrence and survival after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the severity in the grading of MVI and long-term oncological outcomes in patients with early-stage HCC. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on a prospectively maintained multicenter database on patients who underwent curative resection for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A HCC between 2017 and 2020. Patients were classified into three groups according to the severity in the grading of MVI: M0 (no MVI), M1 (1-5 sites of MVI occurring ≤1 cm away from the tumor), and M2 (>5 sites occurring ≤1 cm and/or any site occurring >1 cm away from the tumor). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared among the groups. RESULTS: Of 388 patients, M0, M1, and M2 of the MVI gradings were present in 223 (57.5%), 118 (30.4%), and 47 (12.1%) patients, respectively. The median OS and RFS in patients with M0, M1, and M2 were 61.1, 52.7, and 27.4 months; and 43.0, 29.1, and 13.1 months (both P <0.001), respectively. Multivariable analyses identified both M1 and M2 to be independent risk factors for OS [hazard ratio (HR): 1.682, P =0.003; and HR: 3.570, P <0.001] and RFS (HR: 1.550, P =0.037; and HR: 2.256, P <0.001). CONCLUSION: The severity in the grading of MVI was independently associated with recurrence and survival after HCC resection. Patients with the presence of MVI, especially those with a more severe MVI grading (M2), require more stringent recurrence surveillance and/or active adjuvant therapy against recurrence.

Hydroxymethylation and Epigenetic Drugs: New Insights into the Diagnosis and Treatment in Epigenetics of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a highly lethal and heterogeneous malignancy with multiple genetic alternations and complex signaling pathways. The complexity and multifactorial nature of HCC pose a tremendous challenge regarding its diagnosis and treatment. Emerging evidence has indicated an important regulatory role of epigenetic modifications in HCC initiation and progression. Epigenetic modifications are stably heritable gene expression traits caused by changing the accessibility of chromatin structure and genetic activity without alteration in the DNA sequence and have been gradually recognized as a hallmark of cancer. In addition, accumulating data suggest a potential value of altered hydroxymethylation in epigenetic modifications and therapeutics targeting the epigenetically mediated regulation. As such, probing the epigenetic field in the era of precision oncology is a valid avenue for promoting the accuracy of early diagnosis and improving the oncological prognosis of HCC patients. This review focuses on the diagnostic performance and clinical utility of 5-hydroxymethylated cytosine, the primary intermediate product of the demethylation process, for early HCC diagnosis and discusses the promising applications of epigenetic-based therapeutic regimens for HCC.

Association of Concurrent Metabolic Syndrome with Long-term Oncological Prognosis Following Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection: A Multicenter Study of 1753 Patients.

BACKGROUND: Although hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains the main cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide, metabolic syndrome, with its increase in prevalence, has become an important and significant risk factor for HCC. This study was designed to investigate the association of concurrent metabolic syndrome with long-term prognosis following liver resection for patients with HBV-related HCC. METHODS: From a Chinese, multicenter database, HBV-infected patients who underwent curative resection for HCC between 2010 and 2020 were identified. Long-term oncological prognosis, including overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and early (≤2 years of surgery) and late (>2 years) recurrences were compared between patients with versus those without concurrent metabolic syndrome. RESULTS: Of 1753 patients, 163 (9.3%) patients had concurrent metabolic syndrome. Compared with patients without metabolic syndrome, patients with metabolic syndrome had poorer 5-year OS (47.5% vs. 61.0%; P = 0.010) and RFS (28.3% vs. 44.2%; P = 0.003) rates and a higher 5-year overall recurrence rate (67.3% vs. 53.3%; P = 0.024). Multivariate analysis revealed that concurrent metabolic syndrome was independently associated with poorer OS (hazard ratio: 1.300; 95% confidence interval: 1.018-1.660; P = 0.036) and RFS (1.314; 1.062-1.627; P = 0.012) rates, and increased rates of late recurrence (hazard ratio: 1.470; 95% confidence interval: 1.004-2.151; P = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: In HBV-infected patients with HCC, concurrent metabolic syndrome was associated with poorer postoperative long-term oncologic survival outcomes. These results suggested that patients with metabolic syndrome should undergo enhanced surveillance for tumor recurrence even after 2 years of surgery to early detect late HCC recurrence. Whether improving metabolic syndrome can reduce postoperative recurrence of HCC deserves further exploration.

Prospective validation of the Eastern Staging in predicting survival after surgical resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study from China.

BACKGROUND: The Eastern Staging System, which was specially developed for patients undergoing surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has been proposed for more than ten years. To prospectively validate the predictive accuracy of the Eastern staging on long-term survival after HCC resection. METHODS: Patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC from 2011 to 2020 at 10 Chinese hospitals were identified from a prospectively collected database. The survival predictive accuracy was evaluated and compared between the Eastern Staging with six other staging systems, including the JIS, BCLC, Okuda, CLIP, 8th AJCC TNM, and HKLC staging. RESULTS: Among 2365 patients, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 84.2%, 64.5%, and 52.6%, respectively. Among these seven staging systems, the Eastern staging was associated with the best monotonicity of gradients (linear trend χ2: 408.5) and homogeneity (likelihood ratio χ2: 447.3), and the highest discriminatory ability (the areas under curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality: 0.776, 0.787, and 0.768, respectively). In addition, the Eastern staging was the most informative staging system in predicting survival (Akaike information criterion: 2982.33). CONCLUSION: Using a large multicenter prospectively collected database, the Eastern Staging was found to show the best predictive accuracy on long-term overall survival in patients with resectable HCC than the other 6 commonly-used staging systems.

ASAP Score versus GALAD Score for detection of hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter case-control analysis.

Background: The GALAD and ASAP scores are two well-recognized algorithms to estimate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on gender, age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), protein induced by vitamin K absence or Antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) and AFP-L3 (included in the GALAD score but not in the ASAP score). The current study sought to compare the diagnostic performance of each score to detect HCC among patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). Methods: A multicenter case-control study was undertaken in which blood samples were collected from HCVinfected patients with and without HCC. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), ASAP and GALAD scores were compared relative to diagnostic performance to detect any stage HCV-HCC and early-stage HCV-HCC. Results: The analytic cohort included 168 HCV-HCC patients and a control group of 193 HCV-infected patients. The ASAP score had a higher AUROC to detect any stage HCV-HCC versus the GALAD score, both in the overall group (0.917 vs. 0.894, P=0.057) and in the cirrhosis subgroup (0.909 vs. 0.889, P=0.132). Similar results were noted relative to the detection of early-stage HCV-HCC, whether defined by BCLC staging (stage 0-A: 0.898 vs. 0.860, P=0.026) or 8th TNM staging (stage I: 0.899 vs. 0.870, P=0.070). In subgroup analysis to detect AFP-negative HCV-HCC, the ASAP score also demonstrated a higher AUROC than the GALAD score to detect any stage HCV-HCC in the AFP-negative subgroup (0.815 vs. 0.764, P=0.063). Conclusions: The ASAP score had better diagnostic performance for early detection of HCV-HCC compared with the GALAD score. The ASAP score may be preferrable to the GALAD score for HCC screening and surveillance among HCV-infected patients.

Prothrombin induced by vitamin K Absence-II versus alpha-fetoprotein in detection of both resectable hepatocellular carcinoma and early recurrence after curative liver resection: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II) are two commonly used biomarkers for detection and prognostic prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study sought to evaluate and compare the use of these two biomarkers to detect HCC, as well as predict postoperative early recurrence (within 2 years after HCC resection). METHODS: Data on consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for HCC between 2014 and 2020 was prospectively collected and reviewed. Serum AFP and PIVKA-II levels within one week before surgery or at the time of detection of early recurrence were assessed; preoperative AFP positivity (≥20 ng/ml) and preoperative PIVKA-II positivity (≥40 mAU/ml) were examined relative to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox-regression analyses. RESULTS: Among 751 patients who underwent curative HCC resection, 589 (78.4%) patients had preoperative PIVKA-II positivity versus 498 (66.3%) patients had preoperative AFP positivity (P < 0.001). With a median follow-up of 41.6 months, 370 (50.1%) patients had an early HCC recurrence; among patients with an early recurrence, the proportion of patients with PIVKA-II positivity versus AFP positivity (76.5% vs. 60.0%, P = 0.002) was higher. On multivariate analysis, preoperative PIVKA-II positivity, but not preoperative AFP positivity was an independent risk factor to predict early recurrence after HCC resection. CONCLUSIONS: AFP and PIVKA-II are useful biomarkers to detect resectable HCC and predict early recurrence after HCC resection, with the latter showing higher rates of positivity. Preoperative PIVKA-II positivity was independently associated with early recurrence following HCC resection.

A Web-Based Prediction Model for Estimating the Probability of Post-hepatectomy Major Complications in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study from a Hepatitis B Virus-Endemic Area.

BACKGROUND: The identification of patients at high risk of developing postoperative complications is important to improve surgical safety. We sought to develop an individualized tool to predict post-hepatectomy major complications in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: A multicenter database of patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC were analyzed; 2/3 and 1/3 of patients were assigned to the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Independent risks of postoperative 30-day major complications (Clavien-Dindo grades III-V) were identified and used to construct a web-based prediction model, which predictive accuracy was assessed using C-index and calibration curves, which was further validated by the validation cohort and compared with conventional scores. RESULTS: Among 2762 patients, 391 (14.2%) developed major complications after hepatectomy. Diabetes mellitus, concurrent hepatitis C virus infection, HCC beyond the Milan criteria, cirrhosis, preoperative HBV-DNA level, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI) were identified as independent predictors of developing major complications, which were used to construct the online calculator ( http://www.asapcalculate.top/Cal11_en.html ). This model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with the C-indexes of 0.752 and 0.743 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, which were significantly higher than those conventional scores (the training and validation cohorts: 0.565 ~ 0.650 and 0.568 ~ 0.614, all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A web-based prediction model was developed to predict the probability of post-hepatectomy major complications in an individual HBV-infected patient with HCC. It can be used easily in the real-world clinical setting to help management-related decision-making and early warning, especially in areas with endemic HBV infection.