Capturing twenty years of change in ecosystem services provided by coastal Massachusetts habitats.

Accounting for ecosystem services across expansive and diverse landscapes presents unique challenges to managers tasked with navigating and synthesizing the social-ecological dynamics of varied stakeholder interests and ecological functions. One approach to this challenge is through expert based matrices that provide valuations for specific service-habitat combinations. In this study, we combine a literature review with local expert input to build an ecosystem service capacity matrix for the Massachusetts Bays National Estuary Partnership (MassBays). We then apply this matrix to a custom conglomerate land cover data set and a habitat connectivity analysis to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics in select ecosystem services of coastal habitats across MassBays from 1996 to 2016. In 1996, saltmarsh was the primary provider of coastal ecosystem services, representing roughly 60% of the total service capacity. More specifically, high elevation saltmarsh was top-ranked, followed by tidal flats, seagrass, low elevation saltmarsh and unclassified saltmarsh. This distribution of service provisioning varied considerably among the five regions of MassBays, reflecting the unique habitat mixes and local expert valuations of each. Although saltmarsh dominated the overall production of services, seagrass and tidal flats drove 97% of the service changes that occurred from one year to the next. From 1996 to 2016, MassBays lost 50% of its seagrass cover and gained 20% more tidal flats, resulting in a 5% overall loss in ecosystem services. Again, this varied among the five regions, with Cape Cod losing as much as 12% of a given service while the Upper North Shore gained 4% in services overall. We bootstrapped the analysis to provide a range of probable outcomes. We also mapped the changes in service production for each of the sixty-eight embayments. This analysis will aid local managers in accounting for ecosystem services as they develop management plans for their represented stakeholders.

Ecosystem Services Profiles for Communities Benefitting from Estuarine Habitats along the Massachusetts Coast, USA.

The Massachusetts Bays National Estuary Partnership is one of 28 programs in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's National Estuary Program (NEP) charged with developing and implementing comprehensive plans for protecting and restoring the biological integrity and beneficial uses of their estuarine systems. The Partnership has recently updated their comprehensive management plan to include restoration targets for coastal habitats, and as part of this effort, the program explored how to better demonstrate that recovery of ecological integrity of degraded ecosystems also provides ecosystem services that humans want and need. An essential step was to identify key stakeholders and understand the benefits important to them. The primary objective of the study presented here was to evaluate variability in beneficial uses of estuarine habitats across coastal communities in Massachusetts Bays. We applied a text mining approach to extract ecosystem services concepts from over 1400 community planning documents. We leveraged a Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS) classification framework and related scoping tool to identify and prioritize the suite of natural resource users and ecosystem services those users care about, based on the relative frequency of mentions in documents. Top beneficiaries included residents, experiencers and viewers, property owners, educators and students, and commercial or recreational fishers. Beneficiaries had a surprising degree of shared interests, with top ecosystem services of broad relevance including for naturalness, fish and shellfish, water movement and navigability, water quality and quantity, aesthetic viewscapes, availability of land for development, flood mitigation, and birds. Community-level priorities that emerged were primarily related to regional differences, the local job industry, and local demographics. Identifying priority ecosystem services from community planning documents provides a starting point for setting locally-relevant restoration goals, designing projects that reflect what stakeholders care about, and supporting post-restoration monitoring in terms of accruing relevant benefits to local communities.

Robust network stability of mosquitoes and human pathogens of medical importance.

BACKGROUND: The exact number of mosquito species relevant to human health is unknown, posing challenges in understanding the scope and breadth of vector-pathogen relationships, and how resilient mosquito vector-pathogen networks are to targeted eradication of vectors. METHODS: We performed an extensive literature survey to determine the associations between mosquito species and their associated pathogens of human medical importance. For each vector-pathogen association, we then determined the strength of the associations (i.e., natural infection, lab infection, lab dissemination, lab transmission, known vector). A network analysis was used to identify relationships among all pathogens and vectors. Finally, we examined how elimination of either random or targeted species affected the extinction of pathogens. RESULTS: We found that 88 of 3578 mosquito species (2.5%) are known vectors for 78 human disease-causing pathogens; however, an additional 243 species (6.8%) were identified as potential or likely vectors, bringing the total of all mosquitos implicated in human disease to 331 (9.3%). Network analysis revealed that known vectors and pathogens were compartmentalized, with the removal of six vectors being enough to break the network (i.e., cause a pathogen to have no vector). However, the presence of potential or likely vectors greatly increased redundancies in the network, requiring more than 41 vectors to be eliminated before breaking the network. CONCLUSION: Although < 10% of mosquitoes are involved in transmitting pathogens that cause human disease, our findings point to inherent robustness in global mosquito vector-pathogen networks.

What is it about coral reefs? Translation of ecosystem goods and services relevant to people and their well-being.

There is an astonishing diversity of ways in which people benefit from coral reefs. They provide recreation, resource extraction, inspirational, and educational opportunities, among many others as well as being valued just for their existence. As the condition of coral reef ecosystems decline, so do their ability to provide these benefits. Prudent management of coral reefs and the benefits they provide are important as some predict most coral reefs globally will be lost by the mid-21st century. Meanwhile, coral reef managers have limited tools and relevant data to design and implement effective environmental management practices that will enable coral reefs to provide benefits demanded by society. We demonstrate an approach to identify and measure environmental components of coral reefs that directly benefit human well-being. The approach views ecosystems through the lens of a specific set of beneficiaries and the biophysical features directly relevant to each. We call these biophysical features Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS). In our demonstration, we (1) identify a range of beneficiaries of coral reefs; (2) identify metrics of FEGS for those beneficiaries; and (3) describe how data quantifying those biophysical metrics might be used to facilitate greater economic and social understanding.

Assessing Coral Reef Condition Indicators for Local and Global Stressors Using Bayesian Networks.

Coral reefs are highly valued ecosystems currently threatened by both local and global stressors. Given the importance of coral reef ecosystems, a Bayesian network approach can benefit an evaluation of threats to reef condition. To this end, we used data to evaluate the overlap between local stressors (overfishing and destructive fishing, watershed-based pollution, marine-based pollution, and coastal development threats), global stressors (acidification and thermal stress), and management effectiveness with indicators of coral reef health (live coral index, live coral cover, population bleaching, colony bleaching, and recently killed corals). Each of the coral health indicators had Bayesian networks constructed globally and for Pacific, Atlantic, Australia, Middle East, Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia coral reef locations. Sensitivity analysis helped evaluate the strength of the relationships between different stressors and reef condition indicators. The relationships between indicators and stressors were also evaluated with conditional analyses of linear and nonlinear interactions. In this process, a standardized direct effects analysis was emphasized with a target mean analysis to predict changes in the mean value of the reef indicator from individual changes to the distribution of the predictor variables. The standardized direct effects analysis identified higher risks in the Middle East for watershed-based pollution with population bleaching and in Australia for overfishing and destructive fishing with living coral. For thermal stress, colony bleaching and recently killed coral in the Indian Ocean were found to have the strongest direct associations along with living coral in the Middle East. For acidification threat, Australia had a relatively strong association with colony bleaching, and the Middle East had the strongest overall association with recently killed coral, although extrapolated spatial data were used for the acidification estimates. The Bayesian network approach helped to explore the relationships among existing databases used for policy development in coral reef management by examining the sensitivity of multiple indicators of reef condition to spatially distributed stress. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:165-187. Published 2020. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Projecting effects of land use change on human well-being through changes in ecosystem services.

Changing patterns of land use, temperature, and precipitation are expected to impact ecosystem services, including water quality and quantity, buffering of extreme events, soil quality, and biodiversity. Scenario analyses that link such impacts on ecosystem services to human well-being may be valuable in anticipating potential consequences of change that are meaningful to people living in a community. Ecosystem services provide numerous benefits to community well-being, including living standards, health, cultural fulfillment, education, and connection to nature. Yet assessments of impacts of ecosystem services on human well-being have largely focused on human health or monetary benefits (e.g. market values). This study applies a human well-being modelling framework to demonstrate the potential impacts of alternative land use scenarios on multi-faceted components of human well-being through changes in ecosystem services (i.e., ecological benefits functions). The modelling framework quantitatively defines these relationships in a way that can be used to project the influence of ecosystem service flows on indicators of human well-being, alongside social service flows and economic service flows. Land use changes are linked to changing indicators of ecosystem services through the application of ecological production functions. The approach is demonstrated for two future land use scenarios in a Florida watershed, representing different degrees of population growth and environmental resource protection. Increasing rates of land development were almost universally associated with declines in ecosystem services indicators and associated indicators of well-being, as natural ecosystems were replaced by impervious surfaces that depleted the ability of ecosystems to buffer air pollutants, provide habitat for biodiversity, and retain rainwater. Scenarios with increases in indicators of ecosystem services, however, did not necessarily translate into increases in indicators of well-being, due to covarying changes in social and economic services indicators. The approach is broadly transferable to other communities or decision scenarios and serves to illustrate the potential impacts of changing land use on ecosystem services and human well-being.

Downscaling a Human Well-Being Index for Environmental Management and Environmental Justice Applications in Puerto Rico.

Human well-being is often an overarching goal in environmental decision-making, yet assessments are often limited to economic, health, or ecological endpoints that are more tangible to measure. Composite indices provide a comprehensive approach to measuring well-being in terms of multi-dimensional components, such as living standards, health, education, safety, and culture. For example, the Human Well-Being Index (HWBI) framework, initially developed for the U.S. fifty states, was recently applied to quantify human well-being for Puerto Rico. However, the paucity of data at spatial scales finer than state or county levels, particularly for social metrics, poses a major limitation to quantifying well-being at neighborhood-scales relevant to decision-making. Here we demonstrate a spatial interpolation method to fill in missing fine-scale data where coarser-scale data is available. Downscaling from municipio (i.e., county-equivalent) to census-tract revealed a greater range of variability in well-being scores across Puerto Rico, in particular, a larger proportion of low well-being scores. Furthermore, while some components of wellbeing (e.g., Education, Health, Leisure Time, Safety and Security, Social Cohesion) showed consistent improvement over time from 2000-2017 across Puerto Rico, others (e.g., Connection to Nature, Cultural Fulfillment, Living Standards) were variable among census tracts, increasing for some but declining for others. We use a case study in the San Juan Bay estuary watershed to illustrate how approaches to quantify baseline levels of well-being can be used to explore potential impacts of management actions on communities, including to identify environmental justice inequalities among neighborhoods. Spatial clustering analysis was used to identify statistically significant cold or hot spots in well-being. This study demonstrates how indicators of well-being, coupled with interpolation methods to overcome limitations of data availability, can help to monitor long-term changes over time and to better communicate the potential value of ecosystem restoration or resource management.

An introduction to Bayesian networks as assessment and decision support tools for managing coral reef ecosystem services.

Quantifying ecosystem goods and services can help evaluate policies aimed at protecting present and future generations from losing ecosystem benefits. Explicating and quantifying the relationships among risk factors, ecological structure and function, and delivery of ecosystem goods and services requires analytical methodologies that propagate uncertainties. The capabilities of Bayesian networks in generating predictions and accounting for uncertainty are explored with a focus on coral reef ecosystem service assessments. The qualitative aspects of Bayesian networks can be applied to conceptual frameworks developed for coral reef ecosystem service assessments. This is demonstrated using qualitative graphs that describe the relationships between coral reef condition endpoints and benefits from ecosystem services including property protection, recreational opportunities, fish for fisheries, and biochemical metabolites for commercial products developed from reef organisms. Bayesian networks help weigh uncertainties between management decision impacts on stressors and the corresponding delivery of ecosystem services. Quantitative capabilities for inferences are examined in hypothetical scenarios evaluating how decisions affect coral reef ecosystem services and economic benefits and resilience to episodic stress. The described methods facilitate visualizing the potential impacts on ecosystem services from alternative scenarios.

Linking ecosystem service supply to stakeholder concerns on both land and sea: An example from Guánica Bay watershed, Puerto Rico.

Policies to protect coastal resources may lead to greater social, economic, and ecological returns when they consider potential co-benefits and trade-offs on land. In Guánica Bay watershed, Puerto Rico, a watershed management plan is being implemented to restore declining quality of coral reefs due to sediment and nutrient runoff. However, recent stakeholder workshops indicated uncertainty about benefits for the local community. A total of 19 metrics were identified to capture stakeholder concerns, including 15 terrestrial ecosystem services in the watershed and 4 metrics in the coastal zone. Ecosystem service production functions were applied to quantify and map ecosystem service supply in 1) the Guánica Bay watershed and 2) a highly engineered upper multi-watershed area connected to the lower watershed via a series of reservoirs and tunnels. These two watersheds were compared to other watersheds in Puerto Rico. Relative to other watersheds, the Upper Guánica watershed had high air pollutant removal rates, forest habitat area, biodiversity of charismatic and endangered species, but low farmland quality and low sediment retention. The Lower Guánica watershed had high rates of denitrification and high levels of marine-based recreational and fishing opportunities compared to other watersheds, but moderate to low air pollutant removal, soil carbon content, sediment and nutrient retention, and terrestrial biodiversity. Our results suggest that actions in the watershed to protect coral reefs may lead to improvements in other ecosystem services that stakeholders care about on land. Considering benefits from both coastal and terrestrial ecosystems in making coastal management decisions may ultimately lead to a greater return on investment and greater stakeholder acceptance, while still achieving conservation goals.

Linking terrigenous sediment delivery to declines in coral reef ecosystem services.

Worldwide coral reef conditions continue to decline despite the valuable socio-economic benefits of these ecosystems. There is growing recognition that quantifying reefs in terms reflecting what stakeholders value is vital for comparing inherent tradeoffs among coastal management decisions. Terrestrial sediment runoff ranks high as a stressor to coral reefs and is a key concern in Puerto Rico where reefs are among the most threatened in the Caribbean. This research aimed to identify the degree to which sediment runoff impacts production of coral reef ecosystem services and the potential for watershed management actions to improve these services. Ecosystem service production functions were applied to map and translate metrics of ecological reef condition into ecosystem services production under a gradient of increasing sediment delivery. We found that higher sediment delivery decreased provisioning of most ecosystem services, including ecosystem integrity, bioprospecting discovery, and reef-based recreational opportunities and fisheries production. However shoreline protection and services with a strong contribution from non-reef habitats (e.g., mangroves, seagrasses) were higher in locations with high sediment delivery, although there was a strong inshore effect suggesting the influence of distance to shore, depth, and inshore habitats. Differences among services may indicate potential tradeoffs and the need to consider habitat connectivity, nursery habitat, accessibility, and sediment buffering. The relationships we have identified can be used to link stakeholder values to decision alternatives to ensure continued provisioning of these services and the well-being of communities.

Integrating human health and environmental health into the DPSIR framework: a tool to identify research opportunities for sustainable and healthy communities.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has recently realigned its research enterprise around the concept of sustainability. Scientists from across multiple disciplines have a role to play in contributing the information, methods, and tools needed to more fully understand the long-term impacts of decisions on the social and economic sustainability of communities. Success will depend on a shift in thinking to integrate, organize, and prioritize research within a systems context. We used the Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework as a basis for integrating social, cultural, and economic aspects of environmental and human health into a single framework. To make the framework broadly applicable to sustainability research planning, we provide a hierarchical system of DPSIR keywords and guidelines for use as a communication tool. The applicability of the integrated framework was first tested on a public health issue (asthma disparities) for purposes of discussion. We then applied the framework at a science planning meeting to identify opportunities for sustainable and healthy communities research. We conclude that an integrated systems framework has many potential roles in science planning, including identifying key issues, visualizing interactions within the system, identifying research gaps, organizing information, developing computational models, and identifying indicators.

Comparative sensitivity of six scleractinian corals to temperature and solar radiation.

Scleractinian corals were exposed to 6 combinations of temperature and solar radiation to evaluate effects on coral bleaching, survival, and tissue surface area changes during and after exposure. A recirculating coral exposure system was coupled to a solar simulator to allow laboratory testing of 6 species of Caribbean corals (Diploria clivosa, Montastraea faveolata, Porites divaricata, Stephanocoenia intersepta, Siderastrea radians, and Siderastrea siderea). Significant bleaching occurred in all of the corals exposed to high irradiance except S. siderea. Elevated light levels resulted in a decrease in photochemical efficiency for all species during the exposure period, with S. siderea showing the smallest decrease. The most prominent reductions in photochemical efficiency occurred in M. faveolata and S. intersepta, and these species exhibited extensive tissue loss and the highest mortality. In contrast to high irradiance, high temperatures significantly decreased photochemical efficiency for only D. clivosa and did not lead to severe tissue loss for this species. These results demonstrate species-specific responses to solar radiation and temperatures, with M. faveolata and S. intersepta being the most susceptible to bleaching due to high irradiance.

Methods to estimate solar radiation dosimetry in coral reefs using remote sensed, modeled, and in situ data.

Solar irradiance has been increasingly recognized as an important determinant of bleaching in coral reefs, but measurements of solar radiation exposure within coral reefs have been relatively limited. Solar radiation dosimetry within multiple coral reef areas of South Florida was assessed using remote sensed, modeled, and measured values during a minor bleaching event during August 2005. Coral reefs in the Dry Tortugas and Upper Keys had similar diffuse downwelling attenuation coefficients (Kd, m(-1)), whereas Kd values were significantly greater in the Middle and Lower Keys. Mean 1% attenuation depths varied by reef region for ultraviolet B (UVB; 9.7 to 20 m), ultraviolet A (UVA; 22 to 40 m) and visible (27 to 43 m) solar radiation. Solar irradiances determined from remote sensed data were significantly correlated with measured values, but were generally overestimated at the depth of corals. Solar irradiances modeled using an atmospheric radiative transfer model parameterized with site specific approximations of cloud cover showed close agreement with measured values. Estimated daily doses (W h/m(2)) of UVB (0.01-19), UVA (2-360) and visible (29-1,653) solar radiation varied with coral depth (2 to 24 m) and meteorological conditions. These results indicate large variation in solar radiation dosimetry within coral reefs that may be estimated with reasonable accuracy using regional Kd measurements and radiative transfer modeling.

Accuracy of chronic aquatic toxicity estimates determined from acute toxicity data and two time-response models.

Traditionally, chronic toxicity in aquatic organisms and wildlife has been determined from either toxicity test data, acute to chronic ratios, or application of safety factors. A more recent alternative approach has been to estimate chronic toxicity by modeling the time course of mortality as determined in standard acute toxicity tests, but these approaches have received limited validation. The accuracy of chronic toxicity estimates from two time-response models, linear regression analysis (LRA) and accelerated life testing (ALT), was investigated using a dataset of more than 150 matched species pairs of standard acute toxicity test data and measured chronic no-observed-effect concentrations (NOECs). Chronic survival was more accurately modeled by both ALT (accuracy, 69%) and LRA (accuracy, 76%) than was reproduction, growth, or the most sensitive endpoint (accuracy, 50-60%). In general, LRA estimates of chronic toxicity were less conservative than ALT estimates, with 66 to 79% of LRA estimates being greater than the measured NOEC. Acute datasets with early mortality produced estimates of chronic survival that were more accurate (ALT, 92%; LRA, 89%) compared to all datasets but were less conservative (84% of ALT estimates were overestimated vs 93% of LRA estimates). Acute datasets with late mortality resulted in poor ALT and LRA estimates of chronic toxicity for all endpoints. Additional survival time measurements did not improve the accuracy of ALT or LRA estimates of chronic toxicity over the standard four acute measurement times (24, 48, 72, and 96 h). The time course of mortality should be considered when applying time-response models to estimate chronic aquatic toxicity, with greater accuracy likely for chronic survival than for growth or reproduction.

Temporal and spatial variation in solar radiation and photoenhanced toxicity risks of spilled oil in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA.

Solar irradiance (W/m2) and downwelling diffuse attenuation coefficients (Kd; 1/m) were determined in several locations in Prince William Sound (AK, USA) between April 2003 and December 2005 to assess temporal and spatial variation in solar radiation and the risks of photo-enhanced toxicity from spilled oil. Weekly irradiance measurements of surface visible light, ultraviolet B (UVB), and ultraviolet A (UVA) radiation in Valdez (AK, USA) followed expected trends of maximum solar irradiance at each summer solstice and minimum values at each winter solstice. Variation from weekly maximum expected surface irradiances was attributed to large variations in environmental conditions over the 142-week monitoring period. Season and proximity to glacial meltwater were significant determinants of Kd, with 1% attenuation depths ranging from 0.4 to 15 m (UVB and UVA) and from 0.5 to 28 m (visible light). The probability of photo-enhanced toxicity risks estimated from UVA dosimetry decreased with increasing water depth, with higher risks during spring and summer and lower risks during fall and winter. These results demonstrate substantial temporal and spatial variation in solar radiation in Prince William Sound and the potential for significant season- and location-specific photo-enhanced toxicity risks from spilled oil.