Back-trajectory analyses for evaluating the transboundary transport effect to the aerosol pollution in South Korea.

This study performed a back-trajectory analysis to determine the influence of transboundary transport on the extent of aerosol pollution in South Korea, based on 5-year PM2.5 measurements (2015-2019) in five cities covering South Korea. A transboundary transport case was selected if a back trajectory passed over a dedicated region (BOX 1 and BOX 2) in the Yellow Sea. First, we found that the frequency of transboundary transport largely increases in the high pollution case, and this pattern is almost consistent for all months and all five cities, indicating the importance of investigating the horizontal direction of air mass movement associated with PM2.5, which has been discussed extensively in previous studies. In this study, we also examined the altitude change and straight moving distance (defined as travel distance) of back trajectories regarding the extent of local PM2.5. Consequently, we found that back trajectories in high aerosol pollution showed much lower altitudes and shorter travel differences, implying a significant contribution of surface emissions and stagnant air conditions to severe aerosol pollution. As a result, the local PM2.5 level was not significantly enhanced when the air mass passed over the Yellow Sea if transboundary transport occurred at high altitudes with rapid movement (i.e., high altitude and long travel distance back-trajectory). Based on these results, we suggest utilizing the combined information of the horizontal direction, altitude variation, and length of back trajectories to better evaluate transboundary transport.

The role of the North Atlantic Ocean on the increase in East Asia's spring extreme hot day occurrences across the early 2000s.

The occurrence frequency of East Asia's extreme hot day in boreal spring has increased since 1979. Using observational data and a Linear baroclinic model experiment, our study suggests that the occurrence of hot day is mainly due to anomalous high pressure over East Asia associated with a horizontal stationary wave train originating from a positive phase of the North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) in spring. The effect of a positive phase of the NAT SST is evident in the 2000s, apparently associated with the linear trend of the North Atlantic SST like a positive phase of the NAT SST. Before 2000s, in contrast, SST forcing in the Indian Ocean and eastern tropical Pacific, which is associated with a negative phase of the NAT SST, may contribute to induce the East Asian hot days through atmospheric teleconnections. This implies that the relationship between a positive phase of the NAT SST and the occurrence of hot days in East Asia has been changed during the 2000s.

Existence of typical winter atmospheric circulation patterns leading to high PM2.5 concentration days in East Asia.

Understanding the atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for severe air pollution events in East Asia is important because East Asia is one of the most polluted regions in the world, particularly during the boreal winter (December-January-February). Here, by conducting GEOS-Chem simulation with fixed anthropogenic emission sources, we found that there exist three typical atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to leading to high concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5) in East Asia. These atmospheric circulation patterns are characterized by weakened horizontal winds, which allows PM2.5 to accumulate, and by enhanced relative humidity, which can favor secondary formation of PM2.5. The occurrence of these atmospheric circulation patterns is associated with increased sea ice cover over the Barents Sea and heavy precipitation over the tropical western Indian Ocean. The existence of these atmospheric circulation patterns among typical atmospheric circulation patterns indicates high PM2.5 days in East Asia are unavoidable given current level of anthropogenic emissions in the region. This conclusion indicates that sustained efforts to reduce anthropogenic emission sources in East Asia should be warranted to avoid high PM2.5 days.

Arctic/North Atlantic atmospheric variability causes Severe PM10 events in South Korea.

Severe PM10 (particulate matter with a diameter of <10 µm) events in South Korea are known to be caused by stable atmospheric circulation conditions related to high-pressure anomalies in the upper troposphere. However, research on why these atmospheric circulation patterns occur is unknown. In this study, we propose new large-scale teleconnection pathways that cause severe PM10 events during the midwinter in South Korea. This study investigated instances of extremely high (EH)-PM10 in South Korea during mid-winter and examined the corresponding atmospheric teleconnection patterns to identify the factors contributing to EH-PM10 events. K-means clustering analysis revealed that EH-PM10 instances were associated with two large-scale teleconnection patterns. Cluster 1 exhibited a wave train pattern originating in the North Atlantic that developed from Eurasia to the Korean Peninsula. Cluster 2 was associated with a wave-like teleconnection pattern from the Barents-Kara Sea to the Korean Peninsula. The Rossby waves, triggered by the North Atlantic and the Arctic, propagated and weakened the surface pressure system. This led to a high-pressure anomaly over the Korean Peninsula, reducing atmospheric ventilation and causing a rapid increase in PM10 concentration within a few days. Furthermore, an experiment involving a linear baroclinic model established that atmospheric forcing in upstream regions has the potential to induce large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns, resulting in EH-PM10 cases in South Korea. These findings emphasize the ventilation effect and transport of PM10 concentrations modulated by two large-scale teleconnection patterns originating from the Arctic and North Atlantic, leading to EH-PM10 events in South Korea. Understanding this combined phenomenon may assist in the implementation of emission reduction measures based on the results of short-term forecasts of severe PM10 events.

Understanding elevated CO2 concentrations in East Asia relative to the global mean during boreal spring on the slow and interannual timescales.

It is important to examine the physical processes that regulate current CO2 concentrations in East Asia to understand the global carbon cycle. To do this, we begin by defining the difference between East Asian and global CO2 concentrations (East Asian CO2 concentration minus global CO2 concentration), which is referred to as East Asian local CO2 concentration (i.e., EA_LCO2). Then, we examine the physical processes associated with the variability of EA_LCO2 during boreal spring (March-April-May) on the slow and interannual timescales. Our results indicate that there are two key factors leading to elevated CO2 concentrations in East Asia relative to the global mean during boreal spring; one is higher emissions in East Asia, which mostly explains the increasing in EA_LCO2 on the slow timescales. The other is a cool sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific (La-Nina-like SST), which is associated with an interannual higher CO2 concentration in East Asia than the global mean. Enhanced convective activity in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with a La-Nina-like SST forcing, induces low-pressure circulation in the western North Pacific with northerly winds, leading to suppressed precipitation and cool surface temperature in East Asia. Subsequently, those suppress vegetation growth as well as gross primary product, resulting in relatively high CO2 concentrations in East Asia compared to the global mean.

Hemispherically asymmetric Hadley cell response to CO2 removal.

A poleward shift of the Hadley cell (HC) edge in a warming climate, which contributes to the expansion of drought-prone subtropical regions, has been widely documented. The question addressed here is whether this shift is reversible with CO2 removal. By conducting large-ensemble experiments where CO2 concentrations are systematically increased and then decreased to the present-day level, we show that the poleward-shifted HC edge in a warming climate does not return to its present-day state when CO2 concentrations are reduced. While the Southern Hemisphere HC edge remains poleward of its present-day state, the Northern Hemisphere HC edge ends up farther equatorward of its present-day state. Such hemispherically asymmetric HC edge changes are closely associated with the changes in vertical wind shear in the subtropical atmosphere, which result from the long adjustment time of the ocean response to CO2 removal. Our findings suggest that CO2 removal may not guarantee the recovery of the subtropical dryness associated with the HC changes.

Low frequency changes in CO2 concentration in East Asia related to Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation for mid-summer and early fall.

The climatological seasonal maximum and minimum CO2 concentrations in East Asia for 1987-2020 have been recorded at April and August, respectively. We found that the CO2 concentration in East Asia during July, August, and September (JAS) is lower than normal before the late 1990s and after the early 2010s (Low_CO2 period), and higher than normal from the late 1990s to the early 2010s (High_CO2 period). The low-frequency variability of CO2 concentration in East Asia during JAS correlates with both Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)-related sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We analyzed atmospheric and oceanic conditions during JAS between the two periods, finding that precipitation in East Asia decreased during JAS in High_CO2 period than that in Low_CO2 period, possibly due to PDO and AMO-related SST forcing, which decreases vegetation's photosynthetic activity. This may lead to a higher CO2 concentration than normal in East Asia in High_CO2 period through reduced uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. This implies that terrestrial vegetation activity influenced by remote SST forcings should be monitored to better understand regional carbon cycles in East Asia.

Intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high PM2.5 concentration days in South Korea during the cold season.

Based on observation data and a novel K-mean clustering method, we investigated whether intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns are related with the occurrence of high particulate matter (PM) concentration days (diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5)), in Seoul, South Korea, during the cold season (December to March). A simple composite map shows that weak horizontal and vertical ventilation over the Korean Peninsula can cause high PM2.5 concentration (High_PM2.5) days. Also, atmospheric circulations are quite different between one day of High_PM2.5 and periods longer than two days. We also found that two intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns in Asia, which were obtained by adopting K-mean clustering to the daily 850 hPa geopotential height anomalies for 2005-2020, were associated with High_PM2.5 days. These results indicate that High_PM2.5 days in Seoul, South Korea, occur as a result of intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns, therefore, they are unavoidable unless the anthropogenic emission sources over the Korean Peninsula, East Asia, or both are reduced. In addition, these two intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns are more prominent for periods longer than two days while there are no favorable intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns to induce one day of High_PM2.5, which indicates that a single day of High_PM2.5 tends to occur by a stochastic atmospheric circulation rather than the intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns.

Asymmetrical response of summer rainfall in East Asia to CO2 forcing.

Understanding the regional hydrological response to varying CO2 concentration is critical for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation and adaptation polices in the near future. To characterize summer monsoon rainfall change in East Asia in a changing CO2 pathway, we used the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with 28 ensemble members in which the CO2 concentration increases at a rate of 1% per year until its quadrupling peak, i.e., 1468 ppm (ramp-up period), followed by a decrease of 1% per year until the present-day climate conditions, i.e., 367 ppm (ramp-down period). Although the CO2 concentration change is symmetric in time, the amount of summer rainfall anomaly in East Asia is increased 42% during a ramp-down period than that during a ramp-up period when the two periods of the same CO2 concentration are compared. This asymmetrical rainfall response is mainly due to an enhanced El Niño-like warming pattern as well as its associated increase in the sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific during a ramp-down period. These sea surface temperature patterns enhance the atmospheric teleconnections and the local meridional circulations around East Asia, resulting in more rainfall over East Asia during a ramp-down period. This result implies that the removal of CO2 does not guarantee the return of regional rainfall to the previous climate state with the same CO2 concentration.

Increased Indian Ocean-North Atlantic Ocean warming chain under greenhouse warming.

Over the past half a century, both the Indian Ocean (IO) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) exhibit strong warming trends like a global mean surface temperature (SST). Here, we show that not only simply as a result of increased greenhouse gases, but the IO-NA interaction through atmospheric teleconnection boosts up their warming trends. Climate model simulations demonstrate that the IO warming increases the NA SST by enhancing the longwave radiation through atmospheric teleconnection, subsequently, the warmer NA SST-induced atmospheric teleconnection leads to IO warming by reducing evaporative cooling with weakened surface winds. This two-way interaction (i.e., IO-NA warming chain) acts as positive feedback that reinforces warming over both ocean basins. The Pacific Ocean is partly involved in this warming chain as a modulator in an interdecadal timescale. These results highlight the importance of understanding ocean-basin interactions that may provide a more accurate future projection of warming.

General circulation and global heat transport in a quadrupling CO2 pulse experiment.

To investigate the response of the general circulation and global transport of heat through both atmosphere and ocean to two-types of carbon dioxide removal scenario, we performed an earth system model experiment in which we imposed a pulse-type quadrupling of CO2 forcing for 50 years and a gradual peak-and-decline of four-time CO2 forcing. We found that the results from two experiments are qualitatively similar to each other. During the forcing-on period, a dominant warming in the upper troposphere over the tropics and on the surface at high latitudes led to a slowdown in the Hadley circulation, but the poleward atmospheric energy transport was enhanced due to an increase in specific humidity. This counteracted the reduction in poleward oceanic energy transport owing to the suppression of the meridional overturning circulation in both Hemispheres. After returning the original CO2 level, the hemispheric thermal contrast was reversed, causing a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. To reduce the hemispheric thermal contrast, the northward energy transports in the atmosphere and ocean surface were enhanced while further weakening of the global-scale Atlantic meridional overturning circulation led to southward energy transport in the deep ocean.

Statistical Seasonal Forecasting of Winter and Spring PM2.5 Concentrations Over the Korean Peninsula.

Concentrations of fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) over the Korean Peninsula experience year-to-year variations due to interannual variation in climate conditions. This study develops a multiple linear regression model based on slowly varying boundary conditions to predict winter and spring PM2.5 concentrations at 1-3-month lead times. Nation-wide observations of Korea, which began in 2015, is extended back to 2005 using the local Seoul government's observations, constructing a long-term dataset covering the 2005-2019 period. Using the forward selection stepwise regression approach, we identify sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture, and 2-m air temperature as predictors for the model, while rejecting sea ice concentration and snow depth due to weak correlations with seasonal PM2.5 concentrations. For the wintertime (December-January-February, DJF), the model based on SSTs over the equatorial Atlantic and soil moisture over the eastern Europe along with the linear PM2.5 concentration trend generates a 3-month forecasts that shows a 0.69 correlation with observations. For the springtime (March-April-May, MAM), the accuracy of the model using SSTs over North Pacific and 2-m air temperature over East Asia increases to 0.75. Additionally, we find a linear relationship between the seasonal mean PM2.5 concentration and an extreme metric, i.e., seasonal number of high PM2.5 concentration days. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13143-022-00275-4.

Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century.

Future changes in the seasonal evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during its onset and decay phases have received little attention by the research community. This work investigates the projected changes in the spatio-temporal evolution of El Niño events in the 21st Century (21 C), using a multi-model ensemble of coupled general circulation models subjected to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that El Niño is projected to (1) grow at a faster rate, (2) persist longer over the eastern and far eastern Pacific, and (3) have stronger and distinct remote impacts via teleconnections. These changes are attributable to significant changes in the tropical Pacific mean state, dominant ENSO feedback processes, and an increase in stochastic westerly wind burst forcing in the western equatorial Pacific, and may lead to more significant and persistent global impacts of El Niño in the future.

Remote impacts of 2009 and 2015 El Niño on oceanic and biological processes in a marginal sea of the Northwestern Pacific.

The significance of long-term teleconnections derived from the anomalous climatic conditions of El Niño has been a highly debated topic, where the remote response of coastal hydrodynamics and marine ecosystems to El Niño conditions is not completely understood. The 14-year long data from a ship-borne acoustic Doppler current profiler was used to examine the El Niño's impact, in particular, 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, on oceanic and biological processes in coastal regions across the Korea/Tsushima Strait. Here, it was revealed that the summer volume transport could be decreased by 8.7% (from 2.46 ± 0.39 to 2.24 ± 0.26 Sv) due to the anomalous northerly winds in the developing year of El Niño. Furthermore, the fall mean volume backscattering strength could be decreased by 1.8% (from - 97.09 ± 2.14 to - 98.84 ± 2.10 dB) due to the decreased surface solar radiation after the El Niño events. Overall, 2009 and 2015 El Niño events remotely affected volume transport and zooplankton abundance across the Korea/Tsushima Strait through climatic teleconnections.

Distinct impacts of major El Niño events on Arctic temperatures due to differences in eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate mode in the tropical Pacific. The ENSO teleconnections are known to affect Arctic temperature; however, the robustness of this relationship remains debated. We find that Arctic surface temperatures during three major El Niño events are remarkably well simulated by a state-of-the-art model when nudged to the observed pantropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). SST perturbation experiments show that the 1982-1983 warm pan-Arctic and the 1997-1998 cold pan-Arctic during winter can be explained by far eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs being higher during 1997-1998 than 1982-1983. Consistently, during the 2017-2018 La Niña, unusually low SSTs in the same region contributed to pan-Arctic warming. These pan-Arctic responses to the SSTs are realized through latent heating anomalies over the western and eastern tropical Pacific. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing SST amplitude and pattern for Arctic climate predictions.

Roles of insolation forcing and CO2 forcing on Late Pleistocene seasonal sea surface temperatures.

Late Pleistocene changes in insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and ice sheets have different spatially and seasonally modulated climatic fingerprints. By exploring the seasonality of paleoclimate proxy data, we gain deeper insight into the drivers of climate changes. Here, we investigate changes in alkenone-based annual mean and Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca-based summer sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and their linkages to climate forcing over the past 400,000 years. During interglacial-glacial cycles, there are phase differences between annual mean and seasonal (summer and winter) temperatures, which relate to seasonal insolation changes. These phase differences are most evident during interglacials. During glacial terminations, temperature changes were strongly affected by CO2. Early temperature minima, ~20,000 years before glacial terminations, except the last glacial period, coincide with the largest temperature differences between summer and winter, and with the timing of the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentration. These findings imply the need to consider proxy seasonality and seasonal climate variability to estimate climate sensitivity.

Changes in the role of Pacific decadal oscillation on sea ice extent variability across the mid-1990s.

Characteristics of sea ice extent (SIE) have been rapidly changing in the Pacific Arctic sector (PAS) in recent years. The SIE variability in PAS during the late spring and early summer (i.e., April-May-June, AMJ) plays a key role in determining the SIE during the following fall when SIE is at a minimum. We find that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the most dominant variability of sea surface temperature (SST) on the low-frequency timescales, differently influences the SIE in PAS during AMJ before and after the mid-1990s. While a positive phase of PDO during the previous winter acts to increases SIE during AMJ before the mid-1990s, it acts to decrease SIE during AMJ after the mid-1990s. Further analysis indicates that atmospheric circulation associated with PDO differently influences the variability of SIE in the PAS during AMJ by modulating poleward moisture transport across the Alaska or the Far East Asia peninsula. This results in the change in the relationship of PDO and SIE in the PAS before and after the mid-1990s.

Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño.

El Niño's intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models' projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño's intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models' projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models' uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño's future changes.

Regulation of atmospheric circulation controlling the tropical Pacific precipitation change in response to CO2 increases.

The spatial pattern of precipitation responses to CO2 concentration increases significantly influences global weather and climate variability by altering the location of tropical heating in a warmer climate. In this study, we analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections of tropical Pacific rainfall response to quadrupled increase of CO2. We found that the precipitation changes to the CO2 concentration increase cannot be interpreted by a weakening or strengthening of large-scale east-west coupling across the tropical Pacific basin, i.e., Walker circulation. By calculating the water vapor transport, we suggest instead that different responses of the Walker and Hadley circulations to the increasing CO2 concentration shape the details of the spatial pattern of precipitation in the tropical Pacific. Therefore, more regionally perturbed circulations over the tropical Pacific, which is influenced by the mean state change in the tropical Pacific and the enhanced precipitation outside the tropical Pacific, lead to greater increases in precipitation in the western equatorial Pacific as compared to the eastern tropical Pacific in a warmer climate.

Author Correction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.