Gastroschisis and septo-optic-pituitary dysplasia: Is there an association?

AIM: There are several case reports describing patients with both optic nerve hypoplasia/septo-optic-pituitary dysplasia (ONH/SOD) and gastroschisis (GS). Our aim was to investigate whether ONH/SOD is associated with GS. METHODS: A retrospective population-based study was undertaken using the Population Research Data Repository at the Manitoba Center for Health Policy in Manitoba, Canada to investigate if any patient with ONH/SOD also had GS. In addition, Winnipeg's Surgical Database of Outcomes and Management (WiSDOM), a hospital-based paediatric surgical database, was searched to ascertain if any of the patients with GS also have ONH/SOD. RESULTS: Cases were 124 patients with ONH/SOD diagnosed during 1990-2019. None had GS. The surgical database had 188 patients from Manitoba with GS during 1991-2019. None had ONH/SOD. CONCLUSION: There does not appear to be an association between ONH/SOD and GS in our cohorts of patients with these two disorders.

Adherence to Psychotropic Medication Before and During COVID-19: A Population-Wide Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated public health measures have shifted the way people access health care. We aimed to study the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychotropic medication adherence. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using administrative data from the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy Manitoba Population Research Data Repository was conducted. Outpatients who received at least 1 prescription for an antidepressant, antipsychotic, anxiolytic/sedative-hypnotic, cannabinoid, lithium, or stimulants from 2015 to 2020 in Manitoba, Canada, were included. Adherence was measured using the proportion of individuals with a mean possession ratio of ≥0.8 over each quarter. Each quarter of 2020 after COVID-19-related health measures were implemented was compared with the expected trend using autoregression models for time series data plus indicator variables. Odds ratio of drug discontinuation among those previously adherent in 2020 was compared with each respective quarter of 2019. RESULTS: There were 1,394,885 individuals in the study population in the first quarter of 2020 (mean [SD] age, 38.9 [23.4] years; 50.3% female), with 36.1% having a psychiatric diagnosis in the preceding 5 years. Compared with the expected trend, increases in the proportions of individuals adherent to antidepressants and stimulants were observed in the fourth quarter (October-December) of 2020 (both P < 0.001). Increases in the proportions of individuals with anxiolytic and cannabinoid adherence were observed in the third quarter (July-September) of 2020 (both P < 0.05), whereas a decrease was seen with stimulants in the same quarter ( P < 0.0001). No significant changes were observed for antipsychotics. All drug classes except lithium had decreases in drug discontinuation in previously adherent patients during the pandemic compared with 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Improved adherence to most psychotropic medications in the 9 months after public health restrictions were enacted was observed. Patients who were already adherent to their psychotropic medications were less likely to discontinue them during the pandemic.

Effect of Air Transport Delay on Mortality in Critical Illness: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: For critically ill patients in remote areas, we assessed the association of transport delay via fixed wing air ambulance on 30-day mortality, excluding interhospital transports. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis of all such adult transports in Manitoba, Canada, over 5.4 years. Causal mediation analysis was used, with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Acute Physiology Score at the destination intensive care unit as the mediator. The covariates were age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, and physiologic variables from the sending site. RESULTS: The primary cohort was composed of 554 patients; 113 (20.4%) died within 30 days. The total transport delay (mean ± standard deviation) was 5.1 ± 1.7 hours. Compared with no delay, the average 5-hour transport delay was associated with an odds ratio for mortality of 1.34 with a 95% confidence interval from 40% lower to 270% higher, with 60% of the influence of total travel time attributable to worsening of patients' acute physiologic status during the delay in intensive care unit admission due to transport. CONCLUSIONS: Although these findings provide insufficient evidence for an effect of fixed wing air transport delay on mortality among critically ill patients, they underscore the need for additional and larger studies on this topic.

Primary medication nonadherence in a large primary care population: Observational study from Manitoba.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze primary medication nonadherence across several prescription indications and test the predictors of drug nonadherence in an adult primary care population. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study using primary care provider prescriptions linked to pharmacy-based dispensing data from 2012 to 2014. SETTING: Manitoba. PARTICIPANTS: Patients in the Manitoba Primary Care Research Network. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of primary medication nonadherence by drug class. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test the associations of patient demographic and clinical or provider characteristics with primary medication nonadherence. The C statistic was used to assess the models' discriminative performance. RESULTS: A total of 91,660 unique prescriptions were assessed from a cohort of more than 200,000 patients. Primary medication nonadherence ranged from 13.7% (antidepressants) to 30.3% (antihypertensives). In conditions that typically present symptomatically (eg, infections, anxiety) nonadherence ranged from 13.7% to 17.5%. The range was 21.2% to 30.0% for medications related to asymptomatic conditions or those typically detected by screening. The discriminative performance of the models based on patient demographic, clinical, or provider characteristics was weak. CONCLUSION: Primary medication nonadherence is common, occurring more often in asymptomatic conditions. The poor predictability of the models suggests that caution is required when considering characteristic-based interventions or prediction tools to improve primary medication nonadherence.

Psychotropic Medication Use Before and During COVID-19: A Population-Wide Study.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and public health measures that took place have led to concerns regarding mental health and receipt of psychotropic medications. We aimed to study the changes in psychotropic medication dispensation rates before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the general population. Methods: Administrative health data from the Canadian province of Manitoba was used to describe the quarterly incidence and prevalence of antipsychotics, antidepressants, and anxiolytic/sedative-hypnotics from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020. Individuals who received at least one prescription within each quarter were considered exposed to the medication. The denominator was the total population within each quarter. Incidence was defined as no receipt of medication in the 3 years prior to the quarter of interest. Autoregression models for time series data plus indicator variables were used to compare each quarter of 2020 after public health measures were implemented in March 2020 in relation to the expected trend. Analyses were stratified by age and sex. Results: There were 1,394,885 individuals in the first quarter of 2020, with a mean (SD) age of 38.9 (23.4) years, 50.3% were female, and 36.1% had a psychiatric diagnosis in the previous 5 years. A significant decrease was observed for incident antidepressant use (p < 0.05 for both sexes and all age groups except for those 65 years and older) and anxiolytic use (p < 0.05 for both sexes and all age groups except 80 years and older) in the second quarter (April-June) of 2020 compared to the expected trend. Females and those aged 40 years and older had a significantly higher incidence of antidepressant and antipsychotic use in the final quarter of 2020 compared to the expected trend (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Our findings indicate a decrease in new prescriptions for antidepressants and anxiolytics in the 3 months after COVID-19 in-person restrictions were first implemented. We then observed an increase in the new use of antidepressants and antipsychotics at the end of 2020, in females and people aged 40 years and older, with the highest rates of use in the population 80 years and older.

Administrative Data Is Insufficient to Identify Near-Future Critical Illness: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: Prediction of future critical illness could render it practical to test interventions seeking to avoid or delay the coming event. Objective: Identify adults having >33% probability of near-future critical illness. Research Design: Retrospective cohort study, 2013-2015. Subjects: Community-dwelling residents of Manitoba, Canada, aged 40-89 years. Measures: The outcome was a near-future critical illness, defined as intensive care unit admission with invasive mechanical ventilation, or non-palliative death occurring 30-180 days after 1 April each year. By dividing the data into training and test cohorts, a Classification and Regression Tree analysis was used to identify subgroups with ≥33% probability of the outcome. We considered 72 predictors including sociodemographics, chronic conditions, frailty, and health care utilization. Sensitivity analysis used logistic regression methods. Results: Approximately 0.38% of each yearly cohort experienced near-future critical illness. The optimal Tree identified 2,644 mutually exclusive subgroups. Socioeconomic status was the most influential variable, followed by nursing home residency and frailty; age was sixth. In the training data, the model performed well; 41 subgroups containing 493 subjects had ≥33% members who developed the outcome. However, in the test data, those subgroups contained 429 individuals, with 20 (4.7%) experiencing the outcome, which comprised 0.98% of all subjects with the outcome. While logistic regression showed less model overfitting, it likewise failed to achieve the stated objective. Conclusions: High-fidelity prediction of near-future critical illness among community-dwelling adults was not successful using population-based administrative data. Additional research is needed to ascertain whether the inclusion of additional types of data can achieve this goal.

Primary prescription adherence for obstructive lung disease in a primary care population.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to determine primary prescription adherence for obstructive lung diseases (e.g., asthma, COPD) in an adult primary care patient population over a 3-year period. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of electronic medical record and administrative data was performed to determine primary adherence, defined as dispensation of a new prescription within 90 days of the date the prescription was written. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test predictors of prescription primary adherence. RESULTS: Of 13,220 prescriptions for obstructive airway disease, 75.9% (N = 10,038) were filled. In multivariate analysis, depression, certain age groups (18-44 years), higher income quartile were associated with reduced prescription adherence. However, 1-2 ER visits in the previous year (compared to no ER visits), number of ambulatory visits in the previous year, and number of hospitalizations in the previous year, did not increase the likelihood of prescription adherence. INTERPRETATION: This study provides important insights about factors associated with prescription nonadherence and is the first study examining primary medication adherence with medications for obstructive lung disease in adults, providing indications of prescription nonadherence patterns among a broad population.

Outpatient oral anticancer agent utilization and costs in Manitoba from 2003 to 2016: a population-based study.

INTERVENTION: In April 2012, the Manitoba Home Cancer Drug Program (HCDP) was introduced to allow 100% coverage for eligible oral anticancer agents (OAA) and supportive medications for Manitobans with cancer requiring these therapies. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What is the extent of use and cost of OAAs among outpatients in Manitoba from 2003/04 to 2015/16? Did the HCDP change OAA user and prescription patterns? METHODS: This was a retrospective, population-based study using administrative data to measure the prevalence of drug utilization over time and the impact of HCDP on OAA use and prescriptions using generalized linear models. Manitobans with cancer who filled an OAA or supportive medication covered by HCDP from 2003/04 to 2015/16 were included. RESULTS: This study included 22,393 people with cancer who filled an OAA prescription. The prevalence of OAA use increased from 222 per 100,000 to 328 per 100,000 from 2003/04 to 2015/16. Hormone therapy for breast cancer was the most common class of OAA used (increased from 154 per 100,000 to 231 per 100,000). We observed a 2.6-fold decrease in the prevalence of oral alkylating agents and a 10.7-fold increase in the prevalence of protein kinase inhibitors during the study period. The total cost of targeted OAAs per year for all Manitobans with cancer increased from $1.8 million to $19 million. CONCLUSION: We observed an increase in OAA prevalence and the cost of oral targeted chemotherapy is high. Our findings underline the need for addressing these high-cost medications in future developments of a national drug program.

RéSUMé: INTERVENTION: Le Manitoba a introduit en avril 2012 le Programme de médicaments anticancéreux pris à domicile (HCDP en anglais), qui offre un accès entièrement gratuit aux agents anticancéreux oraux (AAO) admissibles et aux médicaments d'appoint aux Manitobains atteints de cancer qui ont besoin de ces traitements. QUESTIONS DE RECHERCHE: Quelle a été l'utilisation des AAO par les malades externes au Manitoba entre 2003-2004 et 2015-2016 et quel en a été le coût? Le programme HCDP a-t-il changé les modes d'utilisation et de prescription des AAO? MéTHODE: Cette étude populationnelle rétrospective a utilisé des données administratives pour mesurer la prévalence de l'utilisation des médicaments au fil du temps et l'incidence du programme HCDP sur l'utilisation et la prescription des AAO à l'aide de modèles linéaires généralisés. Les Manitobains atteints de cancer qui ont fait exécuter une ordonnance pour un AAO ou un médicament d'appoint couvert par le programme HCDP entre 2003-2004 et 2015-2016 ont été inclus. RéSULTATS: L'étude a inclus 22 393 personnes atteintes de cancer ayant fait exécuter une ordonnance d'AAO. La prévalence de l'utilisation des AAO a augmenté, passant de 222 pour 100 000 à 328 pour 100 000 entre 2003-2004 et 2015-2016. L'hormonothérapie pour le cancer du sein a représenté la classe d'AAO la plus communément utilisée (en hausse de 154 pour 100 000 à 231 pour 100 000). Nous avons observé une diminution par un facteur de 2,6 de la prévalence des agents alcoylants oraux et une augmentation par un facteur de 10,7 de la prévalence des inhibiteurs de protéine kinase au cours de la période de l'étude. Le coût total annuel des AAO ciblés pour tous les Manitobains atteints de cancer est passé de 1,8 millions de dollars à 19 millions de dollars. CONCLUSION: Nous avons observé une augmentation de la prévalence des AAO, et le coût des agents chimiothérapeutiques oraux ciblés est élevé. Nos constatations confirment la nécessité d'aborder ces médicaments coûteux dans les versions futures d'un programme de médicaments national.

Accuracy of Administrative Hospital Data to Identify Use of Life Support Modalities. A Canadian Study.

Rationale: Accurately identifying use of life support in hospital administrative data enhances the data's value for quality improvement and research in critical illness.Objectives: To assess the accuracy of administrative hospital data for identifying invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), acute renal replacement therapy (RRT), and intravenous vasoactive drugs in unselected adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients.Methods: We employed the administrative dataset of the Discharge Abstract Database from the Province of Manitoba during 2007-2012, using nationally standardized diagnosis and procedure codes to identify the three types of life support. The criterion standard was the Winnipeg ICU Database, which contains daily clinical information about all admissions to all 11 adult ICUs within the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority. For all individuals aged 40 years or older at ICU admission, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value of the administrative data for identifying life support. We also assessed the ability of the administrative data to identify overlapping use of the forms of life support.Results: Over the study period, there were 20,764 eligible ICU admissions; 52.6% (10,914) involved IMV, 46.8% (9,724) involved vasoactive agents, and 4.4% (907) involved acute RRT. Identification of IMV from administrative data procedure codes was good, with all four parameters exceeding 90%. The procedure code for use of selected vasoactive drugs had a sensitivity of zero; addition of diagnosis codes for shock raised the sensitivity to only 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-24%). Both the sensitivity and specificity for acute RRT procedure codes exceeded 92%, but owing to low prevalence of RRT, the PPV was only 55% (95% CI, 53-58%). Addition of diagnosis codes for acute renal failure did not appreciably improve performance. Overlapping use of the three types of life support was substantial. Among those receiving any one of the types of life support, 68-76% received at least one of the two other types assessed. Considering use of any one or more of the three forms of life support, the administrative data had a PPV of 97% (95% CI, 96-97%) and a negative predictive value of 69% (95% CI, 68-70%).Conclusions: Administrative data accurately identify IMV but not use of vasoactive drugs or acute RRT.

Disparities in management and outcomes of myocardial infarction in multiple sclerosis: A matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although multiple sclerosis (MS) confers an elevated risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), little is known about how it influences management of AMI. METHODS: Using population-based administrative (health) data from two Canadian provinces, we conducted a retrospective matched cohort study. We identified people with MS who had an incident AMI, and up to five AMI controls without MS matched on age, sex, and region. We compared the likelihood of undergoing cardiac catheterization within 30 days of AMI, time to revascularization, use of recommended pharmacotherapy post-AMI, and mortality at 30 and 365 days post-AMI using multivariable regression models adjusting for potential confounders. We pooled findings across provinces using meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified 559 MS cases and 2523 matched controls. In the matched cohort, the MS cohort was less likely to undergo cardiac catheterization within 30 days of admission (odds ratio (OR) = 0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.49-0.77), revascularization (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.69-0.88), or to fill a prescription for recommended therapy. Mortality risk was higher in the MS cohort than in the matched cohort at 30 and 365 days post-AMI. CONCLUSION: Rates of diagnostic and therapeutic care, and survival after AMI were lower in the MS population than in a matched population.

Traditional risk factors may not explain increased incidence of myocardial infarction in MS.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of incident acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the multiple sclerosis (MS) population and a matched population without MS, controlling for traditional vascular risk factors. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective matched cohort study using population-based administrative (health claims) data in 2 Canadian provinces, British Columbia and Manitoba. We identified incident MS cases using a validated case definition. For each case, we identified up to 5 controls without MS matched on age, sex, and region. We compared the incidence of AMI between cohorts using incidence rate ratios (IRR). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to compare the hazard of AMI between cohorts adjusting for sociodemographic factors, diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. We pooled the provincial findings using meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified 14,565 persons with MS and 72,825 matched controls. The crude incidence of AMI per 100,000 population was 146.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 129.0-163.5) in the MS population and 128.8 (95% CI 121.8-135.8) in the matched population. After age standardization, the incidence of AMI was higher in the MS population than in the matched population (IRR 1.18; 95% CI 1.03-1.36). After adjustment, the hazard of AMI was 60% higher in the MS population than in the matched population (hazard ratio 1.63; 95% CI 1.43-1.87). CONCLUSION: The risk of AMI is elevated in MS, and this risk may not be accounted for by traditional vascular risk factors.

Adherence with epinephrine autoinjector prescriptions in primary care.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate primary adherence for epinephrine autoinjector (EA) prescriptions in primary care practices in Manitoba, Canada. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of electronic medical record and administrative data was performed to determine primary adherence, defined as dispensation of a new EA prescription within 90 days of the date the prescription was written. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test predictors of filling an EA prescription. RESULTS: Of 1212 EA prescriptions written between 2012 and 2014, only 69.9% (N = 847) were filled. An increased number of prescriptions for non-EA mediations was associated with an increased odds ratio of not filling an EA prescription. INTERPRETATION: This is the first study in Canada to examine adherence for EA prescriptions. The non-adherence rate identified is higher than rates previously reported in the literature, and indicates that many EA prescriptions for adults seen in primary care may never be filled. It also suggests that prescriptions of EAs for all patients at risk of anaphylaxis in community settings should consistently be accompanied by concise information about the importance of having the EA prescription filled and having the EA readily available.

Antiepileptic use for epilepsy and nonepilepsy disorders: A population-based study (1998-2013).

OBJECTIVE: To examine the trends in antiepileptic drug (AED) use among individuals living in Manitoba with and without a history of epilepsy. METHODS: Using data obtained from administrative health databases in Manitoba, we assessed the quarterly prevalence of AED use between 1998 and 2013 among individuals with and without a history of epilepsy using cross-sectional time series analysis. RESULTS: Over the study period, the number of individuals prescribed AEDs increased more than 3-fold, from 8,883 to 27,246. The prevalence of AED use among patients with epilepsy increased by 3%, from 789.6 per 1,000 in 1998/1999 to 813.9 per 1,000 in 2012/2013 (p < 0.001 after 2006). In contrast, we observed a 210% increase in AED use among patients without epilepsy from 6.8 to 21.1 per 1,000 over the same period (p < 0.001). We observed a 55-fold rise in gabapentin use among patients without a seizure disorder (from 0.2 to 11.1 per 1,000; p < 0.001), while gabapentin use among those with epilepsy increased only 2-fold, from 21.6 to 41.3 per 1,000 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: There has been a marked increase in the prevalence of AED users over the last 15 years, with a large shift towards the use of newer antiepileptic agents (primarily gabapentin) among those without epilepsy. Further research on the effect of these trends on health and economic outcomes will be of interest for clinicians and policymakers.

A population-based observational study of intensive care unit-related outcomes. With emphasis on post-hospital outcomes.

RATIONALE: Many studies of critical illness outcomes have been restricted to short-term outcomes, selected diagnoses, and patients in one or a few intensive care units (ICUs). OBJECTIVES: Evaluate a range of relevant outcomes in a population-based cohort of patients admitted to ICUs. METHODS: Among all adult residents of the Canadian province of Manitoba admitted to ICUs over a 9-year period, we assessed ICU, hospital, 30-day, and 180-day mortality rates; ICU and hospital lengths-of-stay; Post-hospital use of hospital care, ICU care, outpatient physician care, medications, and home care; and Post-hospital residence location. We explored data stratified by age, sex, and separate categories of geocoded income for urban and rural residents. For Post-hospital use variables we compared ICU patients with those admitted to hospitals without the need for ICU care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After ICU admission there was a high initial death rate, which declined between 30 and 180 days and thereafter remained at the lower value. Hospital mortality was 19.0%, with 21.7% dying within 6 months of ICU admission. Women had higher hospital mortality than men (20.8 vs. 17.8%; P = 0.0008). Among urban residents there was a steady gradient of declining hospital mortality with rising income (P < 0.0001). Mean ICU length of stay was 3.96 days, increasing 0.11 d/yr over the study period (P = 0.001); median ICU length of stay was 2.33 days and did not change over time. In the year after ICU care, 41% were rehospitalized, 10% were readmitted to an ICU, 98% had outpatient physician visits, 96% used prescription medications, and 27% used home care services. Although most of these parameters were statistically higher than for hospitalizations not requiring ICU care, differences were generally small. Among hospital survivors, 2.7% were discharged to chronic care facilities, with 2.5% living in such facilities 3 months later. CONCLUSIONS: Post-hospital medical resource use among ICU survivors is substantial, although similar to that after non-ICU hospitalization. Although the fraction of survivors unable to live independently was small, a larger fraction required home care services. Identifying Post-hospital supports needed by ICU survivors can be useful for policy makers and others responsible for healthcare planning.

Surge capacity: analysis of census fluctuations to estimate the number of intensive care unit beds needed.

OBJECTIVE: To compare methods of characterizing intensive care unit (ICU) bed use and estimate the number of beds needed. STUDY SETTING: Three geographic regions in the Canadian province of Manitoba. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of population-based data from April 1, 2000, to March 31, 2007. METHODS: We compared three methods to estimate ICU bed requirements. Method 1 analyzed yearly patient-days. Methods 2 and 3 analyzed day-to-day fluctuations in patient census; these differed by whether each hospital needed to independently fulfill its own demand or this resource was shared across hospitals. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three main findings were as follows: (1) estimates based on yearly average usage generally underestimated the number of beds needed compared to analysis of fluctuations in census, especially in the smaller regions where underestimation ranged 25-58 percent; (2) 4-29 percent fewer beds were needed if it was acceptable for demand to exceed supply 18 days/year, versus 4 days/year; and (3) 13-36 percent fewer beds were needed if hospitals within a region could effectively share ICU beds. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to using yearly averages, analyzing day-to-day fluctuations in patient census gives a more accurate picture of ICU bed use. Failing to provide adequate "surge capacity" can lead to demand that frequently and severely exceeds supply.

Distinct determinants of long-term and short-term survival in critical illness.

PURPOSE: To identify the determinants of short-term and long-term survival in adult patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). METHODS: This population-based, observational cohort study included all eleven adult ICUs in the Winnipeg Health Region of Manitoba, Canada, analyzing initial ICU admissions during the period 1999-2010 of all Manitobans ≥17 years old. Analysis included Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable regression models of 30-day mortality and post-90-day survival among those who survived to day 90. We used likelihood ratios to compare the predictive power of clusters of variables in these models. RESULTS: After 33,324 initial ICU admissions, mortality rates within 30 and 90 days were 15.9 and 19.5 %, respectively. The survival curve demonstrated an early phase with a high rate of death, followed by a markedly lower death rate that was only clearly established after several months. 30-day mortality was predominantly determined by characteristics of the acute illness; with its relative contribution set at 1.00, the next largest contributors were age (0.19) and comorbidity (0.16). In contrast, post-90-day mortality was mainly determined by age (relative contribution 1.00) and comorbidity (0.95); the next largest contributor was characteristics of acute illness (0.28). CONCLUSIONS: We observed two phases of survival related to critical illness. Short-term mortality was mainly determined by the acute illness, but its effect decayed relatively rapidly. Mortality beyond 3 months, among those who survived to that point, was mainly determined by age and comorbidity. Recognition of these findings is relevant to discussions with patients and surrogates about achievable goals of care.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment.

Major osteoporotic to hip fracture ratios in canadian men and women with Swedish comparisons: a population-based analysis.

Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) tools are calibrated from country-specific fracture epidemiology. Although hip fracture data are usually available, data on non-hip fractures for most countries are often lacking. In such cases, rates are often estimated by assuming similar non-hip to hip fracture ratios from historical (1987 to 1996) Swedish data. Evidence that countries share similar fracture ratios is limited. Using data from Manitoba, Canada (2000 to 2007, population 1.2 million), we identified 21,850 incident major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) in men and women aged >50 years. Population-based age- and sex-specific ratios of clinical vertebral, forearm, and humerus fractures to hip fractures were calculated, along with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All ratios showed decreasing trends with increasing age for both men and women. Men and women showed similar vertebral/hip fracture ratios (all p > 0.1, with ORs 0.86 to 1.25). Forearm/hip and humerus/hip fracture ratios were significantly lower among men than women (forearm/hip ratio: p < 0.01 for all age groups, with ORs 0.29 to 0.53; humerus/hip ratio: p < 0.05 for all age groups [except 80 to 84 years] with ORs 0.46 to 0.86). Ratios for any MOF/hip fracture were also significantly lower among men than women in all but two subgroups (p < 0.05 for all age groups [except 80 to 84 and 90+ years] with ORs 0.48 to 0.87). Swedish vertebral/hip fracture ratios were similar to the Canadian fracture ratios (within 7%) but significantly lower for other sites (men and women: 46% and 35% lower for forearm/hip ratios, 19% and 15% lower for humerus/hip ratios, and 19% and 23% lower for any MOF/hip ratios). These differences have implications for updating and calibrating FRAX tools, fracture risk estimation, and intervention rates. Moreover, wherever possible, it is important that countries try to collect accurate non-hip fracture data.

Epidemiology of critically ill patients in intensive care units: a population-based observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiologic assessment of critically ill people in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) is needed to ensure the health care system can meet current and future needs. However, few such studies have been published. METHODS: Population-based analysis of all adult ICU care in the Canadian province of Manitoba, 1999 to 2007, using administrative data. We calculated age-adjusted rates and trends of ICU care, overall and subdivided by age, sex and income. RESULTS: In 2007, Manitoba had a population of 1.2 million, 118 ICU beds in 21 ICUs, for 9.8 beds per 100,000 population. Approximately 0.72% of men and 0.47% of women were admitted to ICUs yearly. The age-adjusted, male:female rate ratio was 1.75 (95% CI 1.64 to 1.88). Mean age was 64.5 ± 16.4 years. Rates rose rapidly after age 40, peaked at age 75 to 80, and declined for the oldest age groups. Rates were higher among residents of lower income areas, for example declining from 7.9 to 4.4 per 100,000 population from the poorest to the wealthiest income quintiles (p <0.0001). Rates of ICU admission slowly declined over time, while cumulative yearly ICU bed-days slowly rose; changes were age-dependent, with faster declines in admission rates with older age. There was a high rate of recidivism; 16% of ICU patients had received ICU care previously. CONCLUSIONS: These temporal trends in ICU admission rates and cumulative bed-days used have significant implications for health system planning. The differences by age, sex and socioeconomic status, and the high rate of recidivism require further research to clarify their causes, and to devise strategies for reducing critical illness in high-risk groups.

A population-based analysis of leaving the hospital against medical advice: incidence and associated variables.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies of patients leaving hospital against medical advice (AMA) have been limited by not being population-based or assessing only one type of patient. METHODS: We used administrative data at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy to evaluate all adult residents of Manitoba, Canada discharged alive from acute care hospitals between April 1, 1990 and February 28, 2009. We identified the rate of leaving AMA, and used multivariable logistic regression to identify socio-demographic and diagnostic variables associated with leaving AMA. RESULTS: Of 1,916,104 live hospital discharges, 21,417 (1.11%) ended with the patient leaving AMA. The cohort contained 610,187 individuals, of whom 12,588 (2.06%) left AMA once and another 2986 (0.49%) left AMA more than once. The proportion of AMA discharges did not change over time. Alcohol and drug abuse was the diagnostic group with the highest proportion of AMA discharges, at 11.71%. Having left AMA previously had the strongest association with leaving AMA (odds ratio 170, 95% confidence interval 156-185). Leaving AMA was more common among men, those with lower average household incomes, histories of alcohol or drug abuse or HIV/AIDS. Major surgical procedures were associated with a much lower chance of leaving the hospital AMA. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of leaving hospital AMA did not systematically change over time, but did vary based on patient and illness characteristics. Having left AMA in the past was highly predictive of subsequent AMA events.