RESUMO
Since the mid-1980s, the share of household net worth intermediated by US financial institutions has shifted from defined benefit plans to life insurers and defined contribution plans. Life insurers have primarily grown through variable annuities, which are mutual funds with longevity insurance, a potential tax advantage, and minimum return guarantees. The minimum return guarantees change the primary function of life insurers from traditional insurance to financial engineering. Variable annuity insurers are exposed to interest and equity risk mismatch and their stock returns were especially low during the COVID-19 crisis. We consider regulatory changes, such as more detailed financial disclosure and standardized stress tests, to monitor potential risk mismatch and to ensure stability of the insurance sector.
RESUMO
In a life-cycle model, a retiree faces stochastic health depreciation and chooses consumption, health expenditure, and the allocation of wealth between bonds, stocks, and housing. The model explains key facts about asset allocation and health expenditure across health status and age. The portfolio share in stocks is low overall and is positively related to health, especially for younger retirees. The portfolio share in housing is negatively related to health for younger retirees and falls significantly in age. Finally, out-of-pocket health expenditure as a share of income is negatively related to health and rises in age.
RESUMO
Long-term evolutionary dynamics have been approached through quantitative analysis of the fossil record, but without explicitly taking its incompleteness into account. Here we explore the temporal covariance structure of per-genus origination and extinction rates for global marine fossil genera throughout the Phanerozoic, both before and after corrections for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Using uncorrected data based on Sepkoski's compendium, we find significant autocovariance within origination and extinction rates, as well as covariance between extinction and origination, not one, but two, intervals later, corroborating evidence for the unexplained temporal gap found by past studies. However, these effects vanish when the data are corrected for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Instead, we observe significant covariance only between extinction and origination in the immediately following intervals. The gap in the response of the biosphere to extinction in the uncorrected fossil record thus appears to be an artifact of the incompleteness of the fossil record, specifically due to episodic variation in the probability that taxa will be preserved, on time scales comparable to the temporal resolution of Sepkoski's data. Our results also indicate that at that temporal resolution (the stage/substage of duration approximately = 5 million years), changes in origination and extinction do not persist for longer than one interval, except that elevated origination rates immediately after extinction may last for more than a single interval. Thus, although certain individual cases may deviate from the overall pattern, we find that in general the biosphere's response to perturbation is immediate geologically and usually short-lived.