The potential geographical distribution and phenology of Bemisia tabaci Middle East/Asia Minor 1, considering irrigation and glasshouse production.

The Bemisia tabaci species complex is one of the most important pests of open field and protected cropping globally. Within this complex, one species (Middle East Asia Minor 1, B. tabaci MEAM1, formerly biotype B) has been especially problematic, invading widely and spreading a large variety of plant pathogens, and developing broad spectrum pesticide resistance. Here, we fit a CLIMEX model to the distribution records of B. tabaci MEAM1, using experimental observations to calibrate its temperature responses. In fitting the model, we consider the effects of irrigation and glasshouses in extending its potential range. The validated niche model estimates its potential distribution as being considerably broader than its present known distribution, especially in the Americas, Africa and Asia. The potential distribution of the fitted model encompasses the known distribution of B. tabaci sensu lato, highlighting the magnitude of the threat posed globally by this invasive pest species complex and the viruses it vectors to open field and protected agriculture.

Management and population dynamics of diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella): planting regimes, crop hygiene, biological control and timing of interventions.

Using an age-structured process-based simulation model for diamondback moth (DBM), we model the population dynamics of this major Brassica pest using the cropping practices and climate of Guangdong, China. The model simulates two interacting sub-populations (demes), each representing a short season crop. The simulated DBM abundance, and hence pest problems, depend on planting regime, crop hygiene and biological control. A continuous supply of hosts, a low proportion of crop harvested and long residue times between harvest and replanting each exacerbate pest levels. Biological control provided by a larval parasitoid can reduce pest problems, but not eliminate them when climate is suitable for DBM and under certain planting practices. The classic Integrated Pest Management (IPM) method of insecticide application, when pest threshold is reached, proved effective and halved the number of insecticide sprays when compared with the typical practice of weekly insecticide application.

Population dynamics and management of diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) in China: the relative contributions of climate, natural enemies and cropping patterns.

Diamondback moth or DBM is the major pest of Brassica vegetable production worldwide. Control has relied on insecticides, and DBM resistance to these compounds has evolved rapidly. We review and summarize data on DBM population dynamics across a large latitudinal gradient from southwest to northeast China: DBM is, on average, more common in southern locations than in northern locations. The species' phenology is consistent: in southern and central locations there is a decline during hot summer months, while in the north, the species can only exist in the summer following migrations from the south. A cohort-based discrete-time model, driven by daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall, which was built using the DYMEX modelling software, captures the age-structured population dynamics of DBM at representative locations, with year round cropping and threshold-based insecticide applications. The scale of the simulated pest problem varies with cropping practices. Local production breaks and strict post-harvest crop hygiene are associated with lower DBM populations. Biological control appears to improve the management of DBM. Of the management strategies explored, non-threshold based applications of insecticides with reduced spray efficacy (due to poor application or resistance) appear the least effective. The model simulates the phenology and abundance patterns in the population dynamics across the climatic gradient in China reasonably well. With planned improvements, and backed by a system of field sampling and weather inputs, it should serve well as a platform for a local pest forecast system, spanning the range of DBM in China, and perhaps elsewhere.

Models for heartwater epidemiology: practical implications and suggestions for future research.

We present a simple model of the dynamics of heartwater that we use to explore and better understand various aspects of this disease. We adapted the Ross-Macdonald model for malaria epidemiology so that we could consider both host and vector populations, and evaluate the interactions between the two. We then use two more biologically detailed models to examine heartwater epidemiology. The first includes a carrier state and host mortality, and the second includes density dependence. The results from all three models indicate that a stable equilibrium with high disease levels is probably the standard situation for heartwater (R0 between 5.7 and 22.4). More than 80% of cattle become infected with heartwater if only 12% of infected tick bites produce an infection in cattle, if tick burdens are as low as only five ticks per host per day, or if tick lifespans are as short as 7 d. A host recovery rate of 30 d results in over 50% of the cattle becoming infected with heartwater. Our analyses indicate that it is quite difficult to prevent the establishment and maintenance of high levels of heartwater in a herd, thereby supporting previous suggestions that any attempts at controlling this disease through stringent tick control regimens are not warranted.

The epidemiology of heartwater: Establishment and maintenance of endemic stability.

Although heartwater (Cowdria ruminantium infection) is one of the most economically important tick-borne diseases of sub-Saharan Africa, its epidemiology he's remained poorly understood until recently. New data, suggesting that heartwater is present in an endemically stable state in much of sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrating vertical transmission of Cowdria ruminantium in the field, have altered previously accepted views on heartwater epidemiology. In this paper, Sharon Deem and colleagues present an overview of the epidemiology of heartwater based on recent studies, discuss the factors that make endemic stability possible, make recommendations for future directions in research, and provide a foundation for the development of epidemiological models.

The life-cycle of Amblyomma variegatum (Acari: Ixodidae): a literature synthesis with a view to modelling.

All available information on the life-cycle of Amblyomma variegatum is collated. Data for each parameter are analysed to derive mathematical descriptions, which may now be used to construct a model of the life-cycle of this tick. Areas for future research are identified. These include the collection of data for most parameters around threshold conditions to clarify discrepancies reported in the literature and to better quantify the relationships described, examination of the effects of photoperiod and host type on various parameters, and assessment of feeding success of each instar on natural hosts.