Credibility of vaccine-related content on Twitter during COVID-19 pandemic.

During national COVID-19 vaccine campaigns, people continuously engaged on Twitter to receive updates on the latest public health information, and to discuss and share their experiences. During this time, the spread of misinformation was widespread, which threatened the uptake of vaccines. It is therefore critical to understand the reasons behind vaccine misinformation and strategies to mitigate it. The current research aimed to understand the content of misleading tweets and the characteristics of their corresponding accounts. We performed a machine learning approach to identify misinformation in vaccine-related tweets, and calculated the demographic, engagement metrics and bot-like activities of corresponding accounts. We found critical periods where high amounts of misinformation coincided with important vaccine announcements, such as emergency approvals of vaccines. Moreover, we found Asian countries had a lower percentage of misinformation shared compared to Europe and North America. Our results showed accounts spreading misinformation had an overall 10% greater likelihood of bot activity and 15% more astroturf bot activity than accounts spreading accurate information. Furthermore, we found that accounts spreading misinformation had five times fewer followers and three times fewer verified badges than fact-sharing accounts. The findings of this study may help authorities to develop strategies to fight COVID-19 vaccine misinformation and improve vaccine uptake.

Canadian COVID-19 Crisis Communication on Twitter: Mixed Methods Research Examining Tweets from Government, Politicians, and Public Health for Crisis Communication Guiding Principles and Tweet Engagement.

To foster trust on social media during a crisis, messages should implement key guiding principles, including call to action, clarity, conversational tone, compassion and empathy, correction of misinformation, and transparency. This study describes how crisis actors used guiding principles in COVID-19 tweets, and how the use of these guiding principles relates to tweet engagement. Original, English language tweets from 10 federal level government, politician, and public health Twitter accounts were collected between 11 March 2020 and 25 January 2021 (n = 6053). A 60% random sample was taken (n = 3633), and the tweets were analyzed for guiding principles. A tweet engagement score was calculated for each tweet and logistic regression analyses were conducted to model the relationship between guiding principles and tweet engagement. Overall, the use of guiding principles was low and inconsistent. Tweets that were written with compassion and empathy, or conversational tone were associated with greater odds of having higher tweet engagement. Across all guiding principles, tweets from politicians and public health were associated with greater odds of having higher tweet engagement. Using a combination of guiding principles was associated with greater odds of having higher tweet engagement. Crisis actors should consistently use relevant guiding principles in crisis communication messages to improve message engagement.

Trust and Engagement on Twitter During the Management of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Effect of Gender and Position.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, health and political leaders have attempted to update citizens using Twitter. Here, we examined the difference between environments that social media has provided for male/female or health/political leaders to interact with people during the COVID-19 pandemic. The comparison was made based on the content of posts and public responses to those posts as well as user-level and post-level metrics. Our findings suggest that although health officers and female leaders generated more contents on Twitter, political leaders and male authorities were more active in building networks. Offensive language was used more frequently toward males than females and toward political leaders than health leaders. The public also used more appreciation keywords toward health leaders than politicians, while more judgmental and economy-related keywords were used toward politicians. Overall, depending on the gender and position of leaders, Twitter provided them with different environments to communicate and manage the pandemic.

Prediction of COVID-19 Waves Using Social Media and Google Search: A Case Study of the US and Canada.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed a severe threat to public health worldwide. In this study, we aimed to evaluate several digital data streams as early warning signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada, the US and their provinces and states. Two types of terms including symptoms and preventive measures were used to filter Twitter and Google Trends data. We visualized and correlated the trends for each source of data against confirmed cases for all provinces and states. Subsequently, we attempted to find anomalies in indicator time-series to understand the lag between the warning signals and real-word outbreak waves. For Canada, we were able to detect a maximum of 83% of initial waves 1 week earlier using Google searches on symptoms. We divided states in the US into two categories: category I if they experienced an initial wave and category II if the states have not experienced the initial wave of the outbreak. For the first category, we found that tweets related to symptoms showed the best prediction performance by predicting 100% of first waves about 2-6 days earlier than other data streams. We were able to only detect up to 6% of second waves in category I. On the other hand, 78% of second waves in states of category II were predictable 1-2 weeks in advance. In addition, we discovered that the most important symptoms in providing early warnings are fever and cough in the US. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread around the world, the work presented here is an initial effort for future COVID-19 outbreaks.

An analysis of COVID-19 vaccine sentiments and opinions on Twitter.

OBJECTIVE: We identified public sentiments and opinions toward the COVID-19 vaccines based on the content of Twitter. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved 4,552,652 publicly available tweets posted within the timeline of January 2020 to January 2021. Following extraction, we identified vaccine sentiments and opinions of tweets and compared their progression by time, geographical distribution, main themes, keywords, posts engagement metrics and accounts characteristics. RESULTS: We found a slight difference in the prevalence of positive and negative sentiments, with positive being the dominant polarity and having higher engagements. The amount of discussion on vaccine rejection and hesitancy was more than interest in vaccines during the course of the study, but the pattern was different in various countries. We found the accounts producing vaccine opposition content were partly Twitter bots or political activists while well-known individuals and organizations generated the content in favour of vaccination. CONCLUSION: Understanding sentiments and opinions toward vaccination using Twitter may help public health agencies to increase positive messaging and eliminate opposing messages in order to enhance vaccine uptake.

A framework for the risk prediction of avian influenza occurrence: An Indonesian case study.

Avian influenza viruses can cause economically devastating diseases in poultry and have the potential for zoonotic transmission. To mitigate the consequences of avian influenza, disease prediction systems have become increasingly important. In this study, we have proposed a framework for the prediction of the occurrence and spread of avian influenza events in a geographical area. The application of the proposed framework was examined in an Indonesian case study. An extensive list of historical data sources containing disease predictors and target variables was used to build spatiotemporal and transactional datasets. To combine disparate sources, data rows were scaled to a temporal scale of 1-week and a spatial scale of 1-degree × 1-degree cells. Given the constructed datasets, underlying patterns in the form of rules explaining the risk of occurrence and spread of avian influenza were discovered. The created rules were combined and ordered based on their importance and then stored in a knowledge base. The results suggested that the proposed framework could act as a tool to gain a broad understanding of the drivers of avian influenza epidemics and may facilitate the prediction of future disease events.

A decision support framework for prediction of avian influenza.

For years, avian influenza has influenced economies and human health around the world. The emergence and spread of avian influenza virus have been uncertain and sudden. The virus is likely to spread through several pathways such as poultry transportation and wild bird migration. The complicated and global spread of avian influenza calls for surveillance tools for timely and reliable prediction of disease events. These tools can increase situational awareness and lead to faster reaction to events. Here, we aimed to design and evaluate a decision support framework that aids decision makers by answering their questions regarding the future risk of events at various geographical scales. Risk patterns were driven from pre-built components and combined in a knowledge base. Subsequently, questions were answered by direct queries on the knowledge base or through a built-in algorithm. The evaluation of the system in detecting events resulted in average sensitivity and specificity of 69.70% and 85.50%, respectively. The presented framework here can support health care authorities by providing them with an opportunity for early control of emergency situations.

The Assessment of Twitter's Potential for Outbreak Detection: Avian Influenza Case Study.

Social media services such as Twitter are valuable sources of information for surveillance systems. A digital syndromic surveillance system has several advantages including its ability to overcome the problem of time delay in traditional surveillance systems. Despite the progress made with using digital syndromic surveillance systems, the possibility of tracking avian influenza (AI) using online sources has not been fully explored. In this study, a Twitter-based data analysis framework was developed to automatically monitor avian influenza outbreaks in a real-time manner. The framework was implemented to find worrisome posts and alerting news on Twitter, filter irrelevant ones, and detect the onset of outbreaks in several countries. The system collected and analyzed over 209,000 posts discussing avian influenza on Twitter from July 2017 to November 2018. We examined the potential of Twitter data to represent the date, severity and virus type of official reports. Furthermore, we investigated whether filtering irrelevant tweets can positively impact the performance of the system. The proposed approach was empirically evaluated using a real-world outbreak-reporting source. We found that 75% of real-world outbreak notifications of AI were identifiable from Twitter. This shows the capability of the system to serve as a complementary approach to official AI reporting methods. Moreover, we observed that one-third of outbreak notifications were reported on Twitter earlier than official reports. This feature could augment traditional surveillance systems and provide a possibility of early detection of outbreaks. This study could potentially provide a first stepping stone for building digital disease outbreak warning systems to assist epidemiologists and animal health professionals in making relevant decisions.