Assessment of doses in contaminated urban areas: modelling exercise based on Fukushima data.

State-of-the-art dose assessment models were applied to estimate doses to the population in urban areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Assessment results were compared among five models, and comparisons of model predictions with actual measurements were also made. Assessments were performed using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Predicted dose distributions for indoor and outdoor workers from a probabilistic approach were in good agreement with the actual measurements. In addition, when the models were applied to assess the doses to the representative person, based on a concept recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and in the International Atomic Energy Agency Safety Standards, it was evident that doses to the representative person obtained with a deterministic approach were always higher than those obtained with a probabilistic approach using the same model.

Urban working groups in the IAEA's model testing programmes: overview from the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes.

The IAEA's model testing programmes have included a series of Working Groups concerned with modelling radioactive contamination in urban environments. These have included the Urban Working Group of Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (1988-1994), the Urban Remediation Working Group of Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS) (2003-2007), the Urban Areas Working Group of EMRAS II (2009-2011), the Urban Environments Working Group of (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) MODARIA I (2013-2015), and most recently, the Urban Exposures Working Group of MODARIA II (2016-2019). The overarching objective of these Working Groups has been to test and improve the capabilities of computer models used to assess radioactive contamination in urban environments, including dispersion and deposition processes, short-term and long-term redistribution of contaminants following deposition events, and the effectiveness of various countermeasures and other protective actions, including remedial actions, in reducing contamination levels, human exposures, and doses to humans. This paper describes the exercises conducted during the MODARIA I and MODARIA II programmes. These exercises have included short-range and mid-range atmospheric dispersion exercises based on data from field tests or tracer studies, hypothetical urban dispersion exercises, and an exercise based on data collected after the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Improvement of model capabilities will lead to improvements in assessing various contamination scenarios (real or hypothetical), and in turn, to improved decision-making and communication with the public following a nuclear or radiological emergency.

Development of DCGLs by using both probabilistic and deterministic analyses in RESRAD (onsite) and RESRAD-OFFSITE codes.

The Derived Concentration Guideline Levels for two building areas previously used in waste processing and storage at Argonne National Laboratory were developed using both probabilistic and deterministic radiological environmental pathway analysis. Four scenarios were considered. The two current uses considered were on-site industrial use and off-site residential use with farming. The two future uses (i.e., after an institutional control period of 100 y) were on-site recreational use and on-site residential use with farming. The RESRAD-OFFSITE code was used for the current-use off-site residential/farming scenario and RESRAD (onsite) was used for the other three scenarios. Contaminants of concern were identified from the past operations conducted in the buildings and the actual characterization done at the site. Derived Concentration Guideline Levels were developed for all four scenarios using deterministic and probabilistic approaches, which include both "peak-of-the-means" and "mean-of-the-peaks" analyses. The future-use on-site residential/farming scenario resulted in the most restrictive Derived Concentration Guideline Levels for most radionuclides.

An international comparison of models and approaches for the estimation of the radiological exposure of non-human biota.

Over the last decade a number of models and approaches have been developed for the estimation of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiations. In some countries these are now being used in regulatory assessments. However, to date there has been no attempt to compare the outputs of the different models used. This paper presents the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS Biota Working Group which compares the predictions of a number of such models in model-model and model-data inter-comparisons.

Model testing for the remediation assessment of a radium contaminated site in Olen, Belgium.

Environmental assessment models are used as decision-aiding tools in the selection of remediation options for radioactively contaminated sites. In most cases, the effectiveness of the remedial actions in terms of dose savings cannot be demonstrated directly, but can be established with the help of environmental assessment models, through the assessment of future radiological impacts. It should be emphasized that, given the complexity of the processes involved and our current understanding of how they operate, these models are simplified descriptions of the behaviour of radionuclides in the environment and therefore imperfect. One way of testing and improving the reliability of the models is to compare their predictions with real data and/or the predictions of other models. Within the framework of the Remediation Assessment Working Group (RAWG) of the BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme coordinated by IAEA, two scenarios were constructed and applied to test the reliability of environmental assessment models when remedial actions are involved. As a test site, an area of approximately 100 ha contaminated by the discharges of an old radium extraction plant in Olen (Belgium) has been considered. In the first scenario, a real situation was evaluated and model predictions were compared with measured data. In the second scenario the model predictions for specific hypothetical but realistic situations were compared. Most of the biosphere models were not developed to assess the performance of remedial actions and had to be modified for this purpose. It was demonstrated clearly that the modeller's experience and familiarity with the mathematical model, the site and with the scenario play a very important role in the outcome of the model calculations. More model testing studies, preferably for real situations, are needed in order to improve the models and modelling methods and to expand the areas in which the models are applicable.

Deterministic vs. probabilistic analyses to identify sensitive parameters in dose assessment using RESRAD.

The dose assessments for sites containing residual radioactivity usually involve the use of computer models that employ input parameters describing the physical conditions of the contaminated and surrounding media and the living and consumption patterns of the receptors in analyzing potential doses to the receptors. The precision of the dose results depends on the precision of the input parameter values. The identification of sensitive parameters that have great influence on the dose results would help set priorities in research and information gathering for parameter values so that a more precise dose assessment can be conducted. Two methods of identifying site-specific sensitive parameters, deterministic and probabilistic, were compared by applying them to the RESRAD computer code for analyzing radiation exposure for a residential farmer scenario. The deterministic method has difficulty in evaluating the effect of simultaneous changes in a large number of input parameters on the model output results. The probabilistic method easily identified the most sensitive parameters, but the sensitivity measure of other parameters was obscured. The choice of sensitivity analysis method would depend on the availability of site-specific data. Generally speaking, the deterministic method would identify the same set of sensitive parameters as the probabilistic method when 1) the baseline values used in the deterministic method were selected near the mean or median value of each parameter and 2) the selected range of parameter values used in the deterministic method was wide enough to cover the 5th to 95th percentile values from the distribution of that parameter.

Resrad-recycle: a computer model for analyzing radiation exposures resulting from recycling radioactively contaminated scrap metals or reusing radioactively surface-contaminated materials and equipment.

RESRAD-RECYCLE is a computer code designed by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to be used in making decisions about the disposition of radioactively contaminated materials and scrap metals. It implements a pathway analysis methodology to evaluate potential radiation exposures resulting from the recycling of contaminated scrap metals and the reuse of surface-contaminated materials and equipment. For modeling purposes, it divides the entire metal recycling process into six steps: (1) scrap delivery, (2) scrap melting, (3) ingot delivery, (4) product fabrication, (5) product distribution, and (6) use of finished product. RESRAD-RECYCLE considers the reuse of surface-contaminated materials in their original forms. It contains representative exposure scenarios for each recycling step and the reuse process; users can also specify scenarios if desired. The model calculates individual and collective population doses for workers involved in the recycling process and for the public using the finished products. The results are then used to derive clearance levels for the contaminated materials on the basis of input dose restrictions. The model accounts for radiological decay and ingrowth, dilution and partitioning during melting, and distribution of refined metal in the various finished products, as well as the varying densities and geometries of the radiation sources during the recycling process. A complete material balance in terms of mass and radioactivity during the recycling process can also be implemented. In an international validation study, the radiation doses calculated by RESRAD-RECYCLE were shown to agree fairly well with actual measurement data.