Indocyanine green clearance test combined with MELD score in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with acute liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute liver failure (ALF) is an acute severe deterioration of liver function with high mortality. Early and accurate prognostic assessment of patients with ALF is critically important. Although the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores and King's College Hospital (KCH) criteria are well-accepted as predictive tools, their accuracy is unsatisfactory. The indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test (ICGR15, ICG retention rate at the 15 minutes) is a sensitive indicator of liver function. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of the ICGR15 for the short-term prognosis in patients with ALF. We compared the predictive value of ICGR15 with the MELD scores and KCH criteria. METHODS: Sixty-nine patients who had been diagnosed with ALF were recruited retrospectively. ICGR15 had been performed by ICG pulse spectrophotometry and relevant clinical and laboratory indices were analyzed within 24 hours of diagnosis. In addition, the MELD scores and KCH criteria were calculated. RESULTS: The three-month mortality of all patients was 47.83%. Age, serum total bilirubin and creatinine concentrations, international normalized ratio for prothrombin time, ICGR15, MELD scores and KCH criteria differed significantly between surviving and deceased patients. A positive correlation was observed between ICGR15 and MELD scores (r=0.328, P=0.006). The ICGR15-MELD model, Logit(P)=0.096XICGR15+0.174XMELD score-9.346, was constructed by logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.855. When set the cut-off point to -0.4684, the sensitivity was 87.90% and specificity, 72.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ICGR15-MELD model (0.855) was significantly higher than that of the ICGR15 (0.793), MELD scores (0.776) and KCH criteria (0.659). Based on this cut-off value, the patients were divided into two groups. The mortality was 74.36% in the first group (ICGR15-MELD≥-0.4686) and 13.33% in the second group (ICGR15-MELD<-0.4686), with a significant difference between the two groups (X(2)=25.307, P=0.000). CONCLUSION: The ICGR15-MELD model is superior to the ICGR15, MELD scores, and KCH criteria in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with ALF.

Prognostic factors for chronic severe hepatitis and construction of a prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Chronic severe hepatitis is a serious illness with a high mortality rate. Discussion of prognostic judgment criteria for chronic severe hepatitis is of great value in clinical guidance. This study was designed to investigate the clinical and laboratory indices affecting the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis and construct a prognostic model. METHODS: The clinical and laboratory indices of 213 patients with chronic severe hepatitis within 24 hours after diagnosis were analyzed retrospectively. Death or survival was limited to within 3 months after diagnosis. RESULTS: The mortality of all patients was 47.42%. Compared with the survival group, the age, basis of hepatocirrhosis, infection, degree of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and the levels of total bilirubin (TBil), total cholesterol (CHO), cholinesterase (CHE), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), blood creatinine (Cr), blood sodium ion (Na), peripheral blood leukocytes (WBC), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR) of blood coagulation and prothrombin time (PT) were significantly different in the group who died, but the levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin (ALB) and hemoglobin (HGB) were not different between the two groups. At the same time, a regression model, Logit (P) =1.573XAge+1.338XHE-1.608XCHO+0.011XCr-0.109XNa+1.298XINR+11.057, was constructed by logistic regression analysis and the prognostic value of the model was higher than that of the MELD score. CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate analysis excels univariate analysis in the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis, and the regression model is of significant value in the prognosis of this disease.