Construction of a gene model related to the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer receiving immunotherapy and exploration of COX7A1 gene function.

BACKGROUND: GC is a highly heterogeneous tumor with different responses to immunotherapy, and the positive response depends on the unique interaction between the tumor and the tumor microenvironment (TME). However, the currently available methods for prognostic prediction are not satisfactory. Therefore, this study aims to construct a novel model that integrates relevant gene sets to predict the clinical efficacy of immunotherapy and the prognosis of GC patients based on machine learning. METHODS: Seven GC datasets were collected from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and literature sources. Based on the immunotherapy cohort, we first obtained a list of immunotherapy related genes through differential expression analysis. Then, Cox regression analysis was applied to divide these genes with prognostic significancy into protective and risky types. Then, the Single Sample Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (ssGSEA) algorithm was used to score the two categories of gene sets separately, and the scores differences between the two gene sets were used as the basis for constructing the prognostic model. Subsequently, Weighted Correlation Network Analysis (WGCNA) and Cytoscape were applied to further screen the gene sets of the constructed model, and finally COX7A1 was selected for the exploration and prediction of the relationship between the clinical efficacy of immunotherapy for GC. The correlation between COX7A1 and immune cell infiltration, drug sensitivity scoring, and immunohistochemical staining were performed to initially understand the potential role of COX7A1 in the development and progression of GC. Finally, the differential expression of COX7A1 was verified in those GC patients receiving immunotherapy. RESULTS: First, 47 protective genes and 408 risky genes were obtained, and the ssGSEA algorithm was applied for model construction, showing good prognostic discrimination ability. In addition, the patients with high model scores showed higher TMB and MSI levels, and lower tumor heterogeneity scores. Then, it is found that the COX7A1 expressions in GC tissues were significantly lower than those in their corresponding paracancerous tissues. Meanwhile, the patients with high COX7A1 expression showed higher probability of cancer invasion, worse clinical efficacy of immunotherapy, worse overall survival (OS) and worse disease-free survival (DFS). CONCLUSIONS: The ssGSEA score we constructed can serve as a biomarker for GC patients and provide important guidance for individualized treatment. In addition, the COX7A1 gene can accurately distinguish the prognosis of GC patients and predict the clinical efficacy of immunotherapy for GC patients.

Perioperative toripalimab and chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric or gastro-esophageal junction cancer: a randomized phase 2 trial.

Perioperative chemotherapy is the standard treatment for locally advanced gastric or gastro-esophageal junction cancer, and the addition of programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) inhibitor is under investigation. In this randomized, open-label, phase 2 study (NEOSUMMIT-01), patients with resectable gastric or gastro-esophageal junction cancer clinically staged as cT3-4aN + M0 were randomized (1:1) to receive either three preoperative and five postoperative 3-week cycles of SOX/XELOX (chemotherapy group, n = 54) or PD-1 inhibitor toripalimab plus SOX/XELOX, followed by toripalimab monotherapy for up to 6 months (toripalimab plus chemotherapy group, n = 54). The primary endpoint was pathological complete response or near-complete response rate (tumor regression grade (TRG) 0/1). The results showed that patients in the toripalimab plus chemotherapy group achieved a higher proportion of TRG 0/1 than those in the chemotherapy group (44.4% (24 of 54, 95% confidence interval (CI): 30.9%-58.6%) versus 20.4% (11 of 54, 95% CI: 10.6%-33.5%)), and the risk difference of TRG 0/1 between toripalimab plus chemotherapy group and chemotherapy group was 22.7% (95% CI: 5.8%-39.6%; P = 0.009), meeting a prespecified endpoint. In addition, a higher pathological complete response rate (ypT0N0) was observed in the toripalimab plus chemotherapy group (22.2% (12 of 54, 95% CI: 12.0%-35.6%) versus 7.4% (4 of 54, 95% CI: 2.1%-17.9%); P = 0.030), and surgical morbidity (11.8% in the toripalimab plus chemotherapy group versus 13.5% in the chemotherapy group) and mortality (1.9% versus 0%), and treatment-related grade 3-4 adverse events (35.2% versus 29.6%) were comparable between the treatment groups. In conclusion, the addition of toripalimab to chemotherapy significantly increased the proportion of patients achieving TRG 0/1 compared to chemotherapy alone and showed a manageable safety profile. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04250948 .

Comprehensive genomic characterization of sporadic synchronous colorectal cancer: Implications for treatment optimization and clinical outcome.

Sporadic synchronous colorectal cancer (SCRC) refers to multiple primary CRC tumors detected simultaneously in an individual without predisposing hereditary conditions, which accounts for the majority of multiple CRCs while lacking a profound understanding of the genomic landscape and evolutionary dynamics to optimize its treatment. In this study, 103 primary tumor samples from 51 patients with SCRC undergo whole-exome sequencing. The germline and somatic mutations and evolutionary and clinical features are comprehensively investigated. Somatic genetic events are largely inconsistent between paired tumors. Compared with solitary CRC, SCRCs have higher prevalence of tumor mutation burden high (TMB-H; 33.3%) and microsatellite-instability high (MSI-H; 29.4%) and different mutation frequencies in oncogenic signaling pathways. Moreover, neutrally evolving SCRC tumors are associated with higher intratumoral heterogeneity and better prognosis. These findings unveil special molecular features, carcinogenesis, and prognosis of sporadic SCRC. Strategies for targeted therapy and immunotherapy should be optimized accordingly.

Residual circulating tumor DNA after adjuvant chemotherapy effectively predicts recurrence of stage II-III gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a promising biomarker for predicting relapse in multiple solid cancers. However, the predictive value of ctDNA for disease recurrence remains indefinite in locoregional gastric cancer (GC). Here, we aimed to evaluate the predictive value of ctDNA in this context. METHODS: From 2016 to 2019, 100 patients with stage II/III resectable GC were recruited in this prospective cohort study (NCT02887612). Primary tumors were collected during surgical resection, and plasma samples were collected perioperatively and within 3 months after adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). Somatic variants were captured via a targeted sequencing panel of 425 cancer-related genes. The plasma was defined as ctDNA-positive only if one or more variants detected in the plasma were presented in at least 2% of the primary tumors. RESULTS: Compared with ctDNA-negative patients, patients with positive postoperative ctDNA had moderately higher risk of recurrence [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.37-5.48; P = 0.003], while patients with positive post-ACT ctDNA showed remarkably higher risk (HR = 14.99, 95% CI = 3.08-72.96; P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses indicated that both postoperative and post-ACT ctDNA positivity were independent predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS). Moreover, post-ACT ctDNA achieved better predictive performance (sensitivity, 77.8%; specificity, 90.6%) than both postoperative ctDNA and serial cancer antigen. A comprehensive model incorporating ctDNA for recurrence risk prediction showed a higher C-index (0.78; 95% CI = 0.71-0.84) than the model without ctDNA (0.71; 95% CI = 0.64-0.79; P = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Residual ctDNA after ACT effectively predicts high recurrence risk in stage II/III GC, and the combination of tissue-based and circulating tumor features could achieve better risk prediction.

Construction and validation of a prognostic prediction model for gastric cancer using a series of genes related to lactate metabolism.

Background: Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common clinical malignant tumors worldwide, with high morbidity and mortality. The commonly used tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging and some common biomarkers have a certain value in predicting the prognosis of GC patients, but they gradually fail to meet the clinical demands. Therefore, we aim to construct a prognostic prediction model for GC patients. Methods: A total of 350 cases were included in the STAD (Stomach adenocarcinoma) entire cohort of TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas), including the STAD training cohort of TCGA (n = 176) and the STAD testing cohort of TCGA (n = 174). GSE15459 (n = 191), and GSE62254 (n = 300) were for external validation. Results: Through differential expression analysis and univariate Cox regression analysis in the STAD training cohort of TCGA, we screened out five genes among 600 genes related to lactate metabolism for the construction of our prognostic prediction model. The internal and external validations showed the same result, that is, patients with higher risk score were associated with poor prognosis (all p < 0.05), and our model works well without regard of patients' age, gender, tumor grade, clinical stage or TNM stage, which supports the availability, validity and stability of our model. Gene function analysis, tumor-infiltrating immune cells analysis, tumor microenvironment analysis and clinical treatment exploration were performed to improve the practicability of the model, and hope to provide a new basis for more in-depth study of the molecular mechanism for GC and for clinicians to formulate more reasonable and individualized treatment plans. Conclusions: We screened out and used five genes related to lactate metabolism to develop a prognostic prediction model for GC patients. The prediction performance of the model is confirmed by a series of bioinformatics and statistical analysis.

IL-1ß-associated NNT acetylation orchestrates iron-sulfur cluster maintenance and cancer immunotherapy resistance.

Interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß) is a key protein in inflammation and contributes to tumor progression. However, the role of IL-1ß in cancer is ambiguous or even contradictory. Here, we found that upon IL-1ß stimulation, nicotinamide nucleotide transhydrogenase (NNT) in cancer cells is acetylated at lysine (K) 1042 (NNT K1042ac) and thereby induces the mitochondrial translocation of p300/CBP-associated factor (PCAF). This acetylation enhances NNT activity by increasing the binding affinity of NNT for NADP+ and therefore boosts NADPH production, which subsequently sustains sufficient iron-sulfur cluster maintenance and protects tumor cells from ferroptosis. Abrogating NNT K1042ac dramatically attenuates IL-1ß-promoted tumor immune evasion and synergizes with PD-1 blockade. In addition, NNT K1042ac is associated with IL-1ß expression and the prognosis of human gastric cancer. Our findings demonstrate a mechanism of IL-1ß-promoted tumor immune evasion, implicating the therapeutic potential of disrupting the link between IL-1ß and tumor cells by inhibiting NNT acetylation.

Genomic Analysis Uncovers the Prognostic and Immunogenetic Feature of Pyroptosis in Gastric Carcinoma: Indication for Immunotherapy.

Crosstalk between pyroptosis and tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) in cancer has yet to be elucidated. Herein, we aimed to explore the role of pyroptosis and its association with TIME in gastric cancer. Unsupervised clustering was performed to identify the pyroptosis-related clusters. Pyroptosis risk score was constructed using LASSO Cox regression. Clinicopathological and genetic data of pyroptosis clusters and pyroptosis risk scores were explored. Reproducibility of pyroptosis risk score in predicting response to immunotherapy and screening potential antitumor drugs was also investigated. Three pyroptosis clusters with distinct prognosis, immune cell fractions and signatures, were constructed. A low-pyroptosis risk score was characterized by increased activated T-cell subtype and M1 macrophage, decreased M2 macrophage, higher MSI status, and TMB. Meanwhile, low-score significantly correlated with PD-L1 expression, antigen presentation markers, and IFN-γ signature. The 5-year AUCs of PRS were 0.67, 0.62, 0.65, 0.67, and 0.67 in the TCGA, three external public and one real-world validation (SYSUCC) cohorts. Multivariable analyses further validated the prognostic performance of the pyroptosis risk scoring system, with HRs of 2.43, 1.83, 1.78, 2.35, and 2.67 (all p < 0.05) in the five cohorts. GSEA indicated significant enrichment of DNA damage repair pathways in the low-score group. Finally, the pyroptosis risk scoring system was demonstrated to be useful in predicting response to immunotherapy, and in screening potential antitumor drugs. Our study highlights the crucial role of interaction between pyroptosis and TIME in gastric cancer. The pyroptosis risk scoring system can be used independently to predict the survival of individuals and their response to immunotherapy.

Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Gastric Cancer Patients with Mismatch Repair Deficiency or Microsatellite Instability: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mismatch repair-deficient (dMMR) or microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) status serves as a predictor of a poor response to adjuvant chemotherapy among stage 2 colon cancer patients. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy in dMMR/MSI-H gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: Clinical studies comparing adjuvant chemotherapy and surgery alone in dMMR/MSI-H GCs through June 2021 were retrieved to assess the survival of patients managed with both treatments. Two approaches were used to pool the hazard ratio (HR) of survival: (1) if Kaplan-Meier curves and number of patients at risk were provided, individual patient data were extracted. Cox models were used to calculate the HR with its 95% confidence interval (CI); (2) for study-level data, pooled HR was estimated using fixed/random-effects models. RESULTS: Seven clinical studies were assessed. For dMMR/MSI-H versus mismatch repair-proficient (pMMR)/microsatellite stable (MSS)/microsatellite instability-low (MSI-L) status, the estimated 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 74.2% versus 51.5% (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.32-0.62; P < 0.001) and the estimated 5-year OS rate was 60.5% versus 49.1% (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.60-0.85; P < 0.001). The study-level data showed pooled HRs of 0.42 for DFS (95% CI, 0.31-0.57; P < 0.001) and 0.65 for OS (95% CI, 0.38-1.11; P = 0.114). For adjuvant chemotherapy versus observation of dMMR/MSI-H, the estimated 5-year DFS rate was 76.1% versus 73.3% (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.45-1.15; P = 0.171) and the estimated 5-year OS rate was 73.5% versus 59.7% (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46-0.83; P = 0.001). Significant survival differences also were observed at study level. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirm the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for dMMR/MSI-H GC patients.

Elevated peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is associated with an immunosuppressive tumour microenvironment and decreased benefit of PD-1 antibody in advanced gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: Due to its limited efficacy and potential toxicity, anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody is not suitable for all advanced gastric cancer (AGC) patients and predictive biomarkers identifying patients who can benefit from it are urgently needed. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive and prognostic value of inflammatory markers in the context of the systemic inflammatory status and tumour microenvironment. METHODS: The study included 58 patients from a prospective study investigating the safety and efficacy of toripalimab in chemorefractory AGC patients. Patient characteristics, treatment outcomes, and haematological parameters were analysed. Immune-cell infiltration and gene expression in tumour tissue were examined using transcriptome sequencing. RESULTS: In this cohort, the median follow-up time was 4.5 months, the median progression-free survival was 1.9 months, and the median overall survival (OS) was 4.8 months. The objective response rate was 12.1% and th disease control rate (DCR) was 39.7%. Both the baseline blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (bNLR) with a cut-point of 2.7 and the early elevated dynamic change of the bNLR (dNLR) with a cut-point of 1.5 were prognostic factors of survival. Patients in the high bNLR or dNLR group had remarkably poor DCR (25.8% vs 59.1%, P = 0.023; 15.8% vs 54.6%, P = 0.008). In multivariate analysis, bNLR and tumour mutational burden were independent prognostic factors of OS. Tumour RNA-seq analysis revealed enriched neutrophil infiltration and a higher tumour NLR in the bNLR-high group. Corresponding tumour gene-expression profiles were associated with neutrophil recruitment and inflammatory cytokine aggregation. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated the potential clinical utility of NLR as a biomarker for patient selection and clinical management in predicting the prognosis of AGC patients as well as response to anti-PD-1 therapy. In addition, high bNLR reflected the imbalance of tumour-tissue-infiltrating neutrophils and lymphocytes, and was associated with an immunosuppressive and pro-tumour microenvironment.

The genomic architecture of EBV and infected gastric tissue from precursor lesions to carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated gastric carcinomas (EBVaGCs) present unique molecular signatures, but the tumorigenesis of EBVaGCs and the role EBV plays during this process remain poorly understood. METHODS: We applied whole-exome sequencing, EBV genome sequencing, and whole-genome bisulfite sequencing to multiple samples (n = 123) derived from the same patients (n = 25), which covered saliva samples and different histological stages from morphologically normal epithelial tissues to dysplasia and EBVaGCs. We compared the genomic landscape between EBVaGCs and their precursor lesions and traced the clonal evolution for each patient. We also analyzed genome sequences of EBV from samples of different histological types. Finally, the key molecular events promoting the tumor evolution were demonstrated by MTT, IC50, and colony formation assay in vitro experiments and in vivo xenograft experiments. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed increasing mutational burden and EBV load from normal tissues and low-grade dysplasia (LD) to high-grade dysplasia (HD) and EBVaGCs, and oncogenic amplifications occurred late in EBVaGCs. Interestingly, within each patient, EBVaGCs and HDs were monoclonal and harbored single-strain-originated EBV, but saliva or normal tissues/LDs had different EBV strains from that in EBVaGCs. Compared with precursor lesions, tumor cells showed incremental methylation in promotor regions, whereas EBV presented consistent hypermethylation. Dominant alterations targeting the PI3K-Akt and Wnt pathways were found in EBV-infected cells. The combinational inhibition of these two pathways in EBV-positive tumor cells confirmed their synergistic function. CONCLUSIONS: We portrayed the (epi) genomic evolution process of EBVaGCs, revealed the extensive genomic diversity of EBV between tumors and normal tissue sites, and demonstrated the synergistic activation of the PI3K and Wnt pathways in EBVaGCs, offering a new potential treatment strategy for this disease.

Association Between Body Mass Index and Survival Outcomes In Patients Treated With Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: Meta-analyses of Individual Patient Data.

Despite that immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) had tremendous improved the survival of multiple solid tumors, only a limited proportion of patients are responsive to ICIs. Therefore, effective variables are urgently needed to predict the probability of response to ICIs. Systematic searches were conducted from inception up to May, 2020. Prospective or retrospective studies of ICIs that investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and survival outcomes, including overall survival (OS) and/or progression-free survival (PFS), were selected. The association between each BMI category and survival outcomes was calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression models and quantified as hazard ratio (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval. Seven clinical studies involving data from 3768 individual patients were included. The median OS was 15.5 months (95% confidence interval: 14.7-16.2 mo) and the median PFS was 5.7 months (5.2-6.3 mo). The median OS was significantly longer in overweight/obese patients than in nonoverweight patients (20.7 vs. 11.3 mo; P<0.001). The difference in OS between overweight and obese patients was not statistically significant (HR: 1.14, P=0.098). Similar results were observed for PFS outcomes. Subgroup analysis demonstrated improved OS in overweight/obese patients with nonsmall-cell lung cancer (HR: 0.81, P=0.002), melanoma (HR: 0.66, P<0.001), renal cell carcinoma (HR: 0.53, P<0.001), and multiple cancer type (HR: 0.34, P<0.001), with parallel results noted regarding PFS outcomes. Results of the present study suggested that BMI may be a satisfactory prognostic factor for patients treated with ICIs.

Efficacy of Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 Monotherapy or Combinational Therapy in Patients Aged 75 Years or Older: A Study-Level Meta-Analysis.

Recent trials have shown a promising anti-tumor activity for advanced cancer patients treated with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors; however, little is known on the use of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors in adults over 75 years of age. Here, we performed a study-level meta-analysis to compare the efficacy of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents between elderly (≥ 75 years) and non-elderly (< 75 years) patients. In the present study, we systematically reviewed phase 2/3 trials of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors of advanced solid tumors that reported treatment effect (hazard ratio [HR]) in patients based on age (≥ 75 years vs. < 75 years) and set anti-PD-1/PD-L1 monotherapy or combinational therapy as experimental arm. The HRs of OS and progression-free survival (PFS) are based on random-effect models. Overall, a total of eight qualifying trials comprising 5,393 subjects were included for meta-analysis, and 472 patients (8.8%) were aged 75 years or older. The overall estimated HR for OS was 0.70 (0.62-0.79) in patients < 75 years vs. 0.94 (0.67-1.30) in patients ≥ 75 years. Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents improved OS of melanoma patients in both elderly (HR 0.25 [0.10-0.60]) and non-elderly (HR 0.49 [0.33-0.71]) group. The OS difference in the efficacy of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors between elderly and non-elderly patients was significant (P = 0.043 for interaction). The overall estimated HR for PFS was 0.77 (0.60-1.00) in patients < 75 years vs. 0.97 (0.60-1.58) in patients ≥ 75 years. Therefore, with the exception of melanoma, elderly patients (≥ 75 years) could not benefit from the anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents in survival, and toxicity profile of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 drugs should be explored in this population.

Systematic Analysis of the Aberrances and Functional Implications of Ferroptosis in Cancer.

Ferroptosis is a type of cell death related to cancer; however, the characteristics of ferroptosis in cancers are still uncertain. Based on the data in The Cancer Genome Atlas, we found that most ferroptosis regulator genes (FRGs) were differentially expressed in tumors, somatic copy number alterations (SCNA) and DNA methylation contributed to their aberrant expression. We established the ferroptosis potential index (FPI) to reveal the functional roles of ferroptosis and noticed that the FPI was higher in tumors than in normal tissues in most cancers and was associated with subtypes and clinical features. The FPI was negatively correlated with several metabolic pathways but positively associated with several important metastasis-related pathways and immune-related pathways. High FPI predicted poor prognosis in several tumors, whereas FPI and FRGs impacted drug sensitivity. Our study presents a systematic analysis of ferroptosis and its regulatory genes and highlights the potential of ferroptosis-based cancer therapy.

Surgical Outcome and Long-Term Survival of Conversion Surgery for Advanced Gastric Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The present study aims to report the surgical outcome and long-term survival of conversion surgery and clarify its role in advanced gastric cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 95 primary advanced gastric adenocarcinoma patients who underwent systemic chemotherapy and conversion surgery were reviewed retrospectively. The survival of conversion surgery was analyzed by Cox regression and the Kaplan-Meier method. Surgical outcomes were analyzed according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. RESULTS: The median survival time (MST) of the 95 patients was 26.8 months, and the postoperative MST was 19.3 months. The MSTs of the patients in categories 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 28.8, 25.5, 43.6, and 11.3 months, respectively. The MSTs of the patients who underwent R0 resection (47 cases) and R1/2 resection (48 cases) were 49.3 months and 21.9 months, respectively. The MST of patients treated with total gastrectomy was shorter (21.9 months) than that of patients who underwent proximal (55.0 months) or distal (46.3 months) gastrectomy. Patients who received more than 6 cycles of induction chemotherapy had a longer MST than patients who received 3-5 cycles or 1-2 cycles (MST: 55.0 months versus 21.1 months versus 21.7 months). The incident postoperative complications and postoperative mortality rates were 10.5% and 1.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced gastric cancer patients may obtain a survival benefit from conversion surgery, except category 4. Performing a sufficient number of cycles of induction chemotherapy (usually ≥ 6 cycles) is recommended. Surgical oncologists should perform R0 resection and avoid total gastrectomy.

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in anti-programmed death-1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 trials of advanced melanoma.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the surrogacy of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma through a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: PubMed and EMBASE were searched for phase II/III RCTs till June 2019 investigating anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents. Treatment effect (hazard ratio or odds ratio) on potential surrogates (ORR/DCR/PFS) and OS were collected. At trial level, we assessed the correlation between treatment effect on potential surrogates and OS, weighted by sample size, fixed and random effect models, and calculated the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Sensitivity analyses and leave-one-out cross-validation approach were performed to evaluate the robustness of our findings. RESULTS: We included 8 RCTs (4110 patients; 11 comparisons). We did not identify strong correlations between ORR [coefficient of determination (R 2): 0.09-0.25], DCR (0.41-0.57) and OS. However, we noted a strong correlation between PFS and OS, with R 2 of 0.82 in sample size, 0.75 in fixed effect and 0.72 in random effect model weighting, the robustness of which was further verified by leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Sensitivity analyses with restriction to trials with less than 50% crossover, phase III trials, large trials and first-line trials strengthened the correlation (0.78-0.94). The STE for PFS was 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: PFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma. A future anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trial would need less than 0.78 for PFS of the upper limit of confidence interval to predict an OS benefit.

Disease-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in adjuvant trials of pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis of 20 randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess whether disease-free survival (DFS) could serve as a reliable surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in adjuvant trials of pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We systematically reviewed adjuvant randomized trials for non-metastatic pancreatic cancer after curative resection that reported a hazard ratio (HR) for DFS and OS. We assessed the correlation between treatment effect (HR) on DFS and OS, weighted by sample size or precision of hazard ratio estimate, assuming fixed and random effects, and calculated the surrogate threshold effect (STE). We also performed sensitivity analyses and a leave-one-out cross validation approach to evaluate the robustness of our findings. RESULTS: After screening 450 relevant articles, we identified a total of 20 qualifying trails comprising 5170 patients for quantitative analysis. We noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for DFS and OS, with coefficient of determination of 0.82 in the random effect model, 0.82 in the fixed effect model, and 0.80 in the sample size weighting; the robustness of this finding was further verified by the leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Sensitivity analyses with restriction to phase 3 trials, large trials, trials with mature follow-up periods, and trials with adjuvant therapy versus adjuvant therapy strengthened the correlation (0.75 to 0.88) between DFS and OS. The STE was 0.96 for DFS. CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, DFS could be regarded as a surrogate endpoint for OS in adjuvant trials of pancreatic cancer. In future similar adjuvant trials, a hazard ratio for DFS of 0.96 or less would predict a treatment impact on OS.

The Efficacy and Safety of PD-1/PD-L1 Inhibitors in Combination with Conventional Therapies for Advanced Solid Tumors: A Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of immuno-oncology combinational therapy (IOCT) versus monotherapy with programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) or PD-ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitors or conventional therapies, i.e., non-IOCT, in patients with advanced solid tumors. METHODS: We systematically searched the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases from January 2015 to October 2018 for eligible studies. We included randomized trials of IOCT with available hazard ratios (HR) for death. The random effects model was used to calculate pooled HR for death; heterogeneity was assessed using I 2 statistics. The main outcome measure was overall survival (OS). RESULTS: After screening 483 relevant articles, we identified twelve trials comprising 5388 patients for quantitative analysis. IOCT-treated patients had significantly higher tumor response rate (relative risk (RR): 2.51, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.82-3.47), prolonged progression-free survival (HR 0.62, 95% CI: 0.53-0.74), and OS (HR 0.69, 95% CI: 0.61-0.78), compared with non-IOCT-treated patients. Sensitivity analyses also demonstrated the OS advantage of IOCT across different combination modalities, intervention agents, malignancy types, and PD-L1 expression (all P < 0.05). Notably, there were higher odds of high-grade (grade ≥ 3) adverse events with IOCT (RR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.13-2.90), but the risk of treatment-related death (RR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.84-1.60) was not increased compared with non-IOCT. CONCLUSIONS: IOCT is a preferable treatment option over PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitor monotherapy and conventional therapy for patients with advanced solid tumors. However, we should note the increased incidence rate of high-grade AEs in IOCT.