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Background@#The most recent variant of concern, omicron (B.1.1.529), has caused numerous cases worldwide including the Republic of Korea due to its fast transmission and reduced vaccine effectiveness. @*Methods@#A mathematical model considering age-structure, vaccine, antiviral drugs, and influx of the omicron variant was developed. We estimated transmission rates among age groups using maximum likelihood estimation for the age-structured model. The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; in community and border), quantified by a parameter μ in the force of infection, and vaccination were examined through a multi-faceted analysis. A theory-based endemic equilibrium study was performed to find the manageable number of cases according to omicron- and healthcare-related factors. @*Results@#By fitting the model to the available data, the estimated values of μ ranged from 0.31 to 0.73, representing the intensity of NPIs such as social distancing level. If μ < 0.55 and 300,000 booster shots were administered daily from February 3, 2022, the number of severe cases was forecasted to exceed the severe bed capacity. Moreover, the number of daily cases is reduced as the timing of screening measures is delayed. If screening measure was intensified as early as November 24, 2021 and the number of overseas entrant cases was contained to 1 case per 10 days, simulations showed that the daily incidence by February 3, 2022 could have been reduced by 87%. Furthermore, we found that the incidence number in mid-December 2021 exceeded the theory-driven manageable number of daily cases. @*Conclusion@#NPIs, vaccination, and antiviral drugs influence the spread of omicron and number of severe cases in the Republic of Korea. Intensive and early screening measures during the emergence of a new variant is key in controlling the epidemic size. Using the endemic equilibrium of the model, a formula for the manageable daily cases depending on the severity rate and average length of hospital stay was derived so that the number of severe cases does not surpass the severe bed capacity.
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BackgroundEarly vaccination efforts and non-pharmaceutical interventions were insufficient to prevent a surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases triggered by the Delta variant. This study aims to understand how vaccination and variants contribute to the spread of COVID-19 so that appropriate measures are implemented. MethodsA compartment model that includes age, vaccination, and infection with the Delta or non-Delta variants was developed. We estimated the transmission rates using maximum likelihood estimation and phase-dependent reduction effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) according to government policies from 26 February to 8 October 2021. We extended our model simulation until 31 December considering the initiation of eased NPIs. Furthermore, we also performed simulations to examine the effect of NPIs, arrival timing of Delta variant, and speed of vaccine administration. ResultsThe estimated transmission rate matrices show distinct pattern, with the transmission rates of younger age groups (0 39 years) much larger than non-Delta. Social distancing (SD) level 2 and SD4 in Korea were associated with transmission reduction factors of 0.64 to 0.69 and 0.70 to 0.78, respectively. The easing of NPIs to a level comparable to SD2 should be initiated not earlier than 16 October to keep the number of severe cases below the capacity of Koreas healthcare system. Simulation results also showed that a surge prompted by the spread of the Delta variant can be prevented if the number of people vaccinated daily was larger. ConclusionsSimulations showed that the timing of easing and intensity of NPIs, vaccination speed, and screening measures are key factors in preventing another epidemic wave. 2 Key MessagesO_LIMaximum likelihood estimation can be utilized to determine the transmission rates of the Delta and non-Delta variants. C_LIO_LIThe phase-dependent NPIs implemented by the Korean government were effectively quantified in the modelling study. C_LIO_LIEven with fast vaccination, resurgence of cases is still possible if NPIs are eased too early or screening measures are relaxed. C_LIO_LIThe model can be used as a guide for policy makers on deciding appropriate SD level that considers not only disease control, but also the socio-economic impact of maintaining strict measures. C_LI