Hospital Careful Hand Feeding Program Reduced Feeding Tube Use in Patients with Advanced Dementia.

OBJECTIVES: Tube feeding is prevalent among patients with advanced dementia despite empirical data that suggest its lack of benefit. To provide an alternative to tube feeding for end-of-life patients, a careful hand feeding program was launched in a Hong Kong geriatric convalescent hospital in February 2017. We aim to compare the rates of feeding tube insertion before and after program implementation and determine risk factors for feeding tube insertion. For patients on careful hand feeding, we evaluated their sustainability on oral feeding and the rates of hospital readmissions compared with tube feeding patients over the next 12 months. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Advanced dementia patients ≥60 years with indication for tube feeding due to feeding problems admitted from January 2015-June 2019. METHODS: Data was collected on demographic and clinical variables, initial feeding mode (careful hand feeding vs. tube feeding), subsequent feeding mode changes, and hospital admissions over the next 12 months. Rates of feeding tube insertion, sustainability on oral feeding, and hospital readmissions were compared using Chi-square test. Risk factors for feeding tube insertion were assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Among 616 advanced dementia patients admitted with feeding problems, feeding tube insertion rate declined significantly after careful hand feeding program implementation (72% vs 51% p<.001). Independent risk factors for feeding tube insertion were admission prior to program implementation, presence of dysphagia alone, dysphagia combined with poor intake, and lack of advance care planning. Among patients on careful hand feeding, 91% were sustained on oral feeding over the next twelve months and did not differ significantly before or after careful hand feeding program implementation (p=.67). There was no significant difference in hospital readmission rates between careful hand feeding patients and tube feeding patients before (83% vs 86%, p=.55) and after careful hand feeding program implementation (87% vs 85%, p=.63). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: A hospital careful hand feeding program significantly reduced the feeding tube insertion rate among advanced dementia patients with feeding problems. The vast majority of patients on careful hand feeding were sustained on oral feeding over the next 12 months but their rate of hospital readmissions remained similarly high after program implementation.

Vision characteristics of Special Olympics athletes seen at the United States National Games 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Special Olympics International (SOI) has provided eye assessments at no cost to athletes participating in competitions through the Special Olympics Lions Clubs International Foundation Opening Eyes (OE) programme. Access to vision services is crucial given the high rates of eye abnormalities found in studies collected at OE programmes in other countries. As of 2022, no studies covering vision data have been published on SOI athletes specifically from the USA. Therefore, this multiple cross-sectional study hopes to investigate the vision profile of US athletes over three national games, detecting any changes in vision and ocular health outcomes over an 8-year period. METHODS: Vision assessments were conducted in the US national games of 2010, 2014 and 2018. Demographic and clinical data from 1427 vision assessments were used in this study. Prevalence of vision and ocular health abnormalities were compared across national games. RESULTS: In our cohort of 1427 assessments with athletes' mean age ± SD of 29.8 ± 11.5 years, 85.3% (n = 1170) had an abnormal vision result with at least one of the following findings: decreased visual acuity of 20/40 or worse (31.0%, n = 442), refractive error including myopia (52.8%, n = 754), hypermetropia (15.7%, n = 224), and astigmatism (35.0%, n = 499), ocular misalignment distant (16.2%, n = 224) or near (17.2%, n = 239), or ocular abnormality (19.1%, n = 273). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the burden of vision defects and ocular disease in US SOI athletes over the past decade. While continued effort must be made to train eye providers in caring for patients with ID to increase eyecare accessibility outside of SOI, vision assessments at national games can continue providing opportunities for improved ocular health in children and adults with ID.

Effectiveness of Partially Hydrolyzed Guar Gum in Reducing Constipation in Long Term Care Facility Residents: A Randomized Single-Blinded Placebo-Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of partially hydrolyzed guar gum (PHGG) in improving constipation and reducing the use of laxatives among long term care facility (LTCF) residents. DESIGN: A single-center, prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled, single-blinded parallel-group trial from September 2021 to November 2021. SETTING: Four LTCF in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-two LTCF residents with chronic constipation (mean age: 83.9±7.6 years, male 38%). INTERVENTION: 5g PHGG mixed with 200ml water per day for 4 weeks was given to intervention group participants. Control group received 200ml water for 4 weeks. Participants continued their usual as-needed laxative (lactulose, senna or dulcolax) on their own initiative. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline measurements included age, gender, Charlson comorbidity index, Roackwood's Clinical Frailty Scale, body mass index and daily dietary fiber intake. Outcome measures were fecal characteristics assessed by Bristol Stool Form Scale, bowel opening frequency and laxative use frequency at baseline, first, second, third and fourth week of trial. Adverse events were measured. The study was registered on ClinicalTrial.gov; identifier: NCT05037565. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in bowel frequency and stool characteristics between the treatment group and control group. However, there was a significantly lower frequency of lactulose, senna, and total laxative use in the treatment group compared with controls in the third and fourth week. There was no significant difference in adverse effects between the two groups. CONCLUSION: This study showed that daily dietary fibre supplementation by using PHGG for 4 weeks in LTCF residents results in significantly less laxative use than placebo. It may be an effective way to reduce laxative dependence among older people living in LTCFs.

Psychological Science in the Wake of COVID-19: Social, Methodological, and Metascientific Considerations.

The COVID-19 pandemic has extensively changed the state of psychological science from what research questions psychologists can ask to which methodologies psychologists can use to investigate them. In this article, we offer a perspective on how to optimize new research in the pandemic's wake. Because this pandemic is inherently a social phenomenon-an event that hinges on human-to-human contact-we focus on socially relevant subfields of psychology. We highlight specific psychological phenomena that have likely shifted as a result of the pandemic and discuss theoretical, methodological, and practical considerations of conducting research on these phenomena. After this discussion, we evaluate metascientific issues that have been amplified by the pandemic. We aim to demonstrate how theoretically grounded views on the COVID-19 pandemic can help make psychological science stronger-not weaker-in its wake.

Welcome to Be Like Us: Expectations of Outgroup Assimilation Shape Dominant Group Resistance to Diversity.

We propose a theoretical framework for when and why members of dominant groups experience threat and express intolerant attitudes in response to social change. Scholarship on symbolic threat suggests that the detection of intergroup differences in values and norms is sufficient to elicit negative intergroup attitudes. Building on this theory, we argue that the experience of threat is actually shaped by prospective beliefs about difference (i.e., expectations of whether outgroups will assimilate to ingroup norms over time or not). Across two studies and two accompanying pilots, we show how outgroup assimilation expectation shapes dominant groups' experiences of threat, specifically as it relates to their ability to define the norms of their superordinate category (prototypicality threat). We observe that members of dominant groups are surprisingly tolerant of both social change and intergroup difference in the present, so long as they expect outgroup assimilation in the future.

Being treated fairly in groups is important, but not sufficient: The role of distinctive treatment in groups, and its implications for mental health.

Organizations and other groups often recognize the importance of members treating each other in a fair (dignified, unbiased) manner. This type of treatment is key to fostering individuals' sense of belonging in the group. However, while a sense of belonging is important, individuals also need to be shown that they have some distinct value to the group-enabling them to not only "fit in" but also "stand out." Building from research on fair treatment, we explicate another form, distinctive treatment, whereby others show interest and appreciation for an individual's more distinguishing, group-relevant qualities. In six studies using multiple methods (e.g., experimental, longitudinal) and in multiple types of groups (work organizations, student communities, racial/ethnic minority groups), we show that fair and distinctive treatment play fundamentally different roles-shaping individuals' perceived belonging versus intragroup standing, respectively-and with downstream benefits for mental health (less anxiety, fewer depressive symptoms). Overall, this illustrates that promoting fair treatment in groups is important, but not sufficient. Experiencing distinctive treatment is also key. Each type of treatment provides unique social evaluative information that fosters a healthy sense of self. This research further indicates that distinctive treatment may be a vital yet overlooked element to promoting diversity and inclusion in groups, as it provides a path for recognizing and appreciating, and thus encouraging, a diversity of ideas, insights, knowledge and skills that individuals bring to the group.

Brainstem cavernous malformations - no longer a forbidden territory? A systemic review of recent literature.

BACKGROUND: Due to its eloquent location and potentially devastating neurological consequences, the management of brainstem cavernous malformations (CCMs) attracts considerable debate. There is currently a paucity of Level 1 evidence for their management. The aim of this literature review is to explore the current evidence on the risk-benefit profile of different management options. METHODS: A systemic literature search, following the PRISMA algorithm was performed on publications between 2010 and 2018 using the Pubmed database, with the relevant keywords. Only English articles were included. Articles focusing on spinal CCMs and studies with less than 30 participants were excluded. RESULTS: A total of 222 search results were reviewed and after removal of duplicates and screening of abstracts, 28 clinical papers comprising 30 or more brainstem CCM cases were included in the study. The heterogeneity of the publications precluded a formal meta-analysis of results. The general consensus is that for CCMs presenting with severe symptoms and/or multiple haemorrhages that reach an accessible pial surface, surgery is considered to be the gold-standard treatment, with some authors suggesting the optimal timing to be within two to six weeks of ictus. For those patients with multiple, deep-seated CCM related haemorrhages that do not reach the pial surface, stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) can be considered. Conservative treatment is generally considered in incidental cases. Management of brainstem cavernomas of other categories still remains controversial. CONCLUSIONS: Due to their highly eloquent location, brainstem CCMs are challenging lesions to manage. Management must be balanced by the risk-benefit profile and tailored to the individual patients and their treating clinicians. This review provides a comprehensive reference considering all treatment options and provides a basis for evidence-based patient counselling.

A comparison of the effects of clozapine and its metabolite norclozapine on metabolic dysregulation in rodent models.

RATIONALE: The second generation antipsychotic drug clozapine is a psychotherapeutic agent with superior efficacy for treatment-resistant schizophrenia. Clozapine is associated with a low likelihood of neurological side-effects, but a high propensity to induce weight gain and metabolic dysregulation. The primary metabolite of clozapine is norclozapine (N-Desmethylclozapine), which has psychoactive properties itself, but its effects on metabolic function remains unknown. The goal of the present study was to determine whether directly administered norclozapine could cause metabolic dysregulation, similar to clozapine. METHODS: Adult female rats were treated with a range of doses of clozapine and norclozapine (0.5, 2, 8 & 20 mg/kg, i.p.) and then subjected to the intraperitoneal glucose tolerance test (IGTT), where glucose levels were recorded for 2 h following a glucose challenge. In parallel, rats were tested with two doses of clozapine and norclozapine (2 & 20 mg/kg, i.p.) in the hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp (HIEC), to measure whole body insulin resistance. RESULTS: In the IGTT, clozapine demonstrated dose-dependent effects on fasting glucose levels and total glucose area-under-the-curve following the glucose challenge, with the two highest doses strongly increasing glucose levels. Only the highest dose of norclozapine increased fasting glucose levels, and caused a non-significant increase in glucose levels following the challenge. By contrast, both doses of clozapine and norclozapine caused a potent and long-lasting decrease in the glucose infusion rate in the HIEC, indicating that both compounds cause whole body insulin resistance. ABSTRACT: While not as potent as its parent compound, norclozapine clearly exerts acute metabolic effects, particularly on insulin resistance. This article is part of the issue entitled 'Special Issue on Antipsychotics'.

Sexual function, self-esteem, and general well-being in Chinese adult survivors of childhood cancers: a cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: This study was conducted to evaluate sexual function in adult survivors of childhood cancers and investigate possible relationships between sexual function and quality of life, as measured by general well-being, self-esteem, body image, and depressive symptoms. METHODS: This cross-sectional survey was performed in our centre from 14 August 2015 to 8 September 2017. Adult patients who had a history of childhood cancers, and who were disease-free for >3 years, were approached for the study during clinical follow-up. Clinical information was collected from medical records. Self-administered questionnaires regarding quality of life and sexual functioning were given to the patients and resulting data were analysed. RESULTS: Two hundred patients agreed to participate in the study. The overall response rate was 64.8%. Ninety-one (45.5%) patients were women, and the mean age was 25.4 ± 5.57 years. The overall sexual functioning score was 28.3 ± 20.09. Forty-eight (24.0%) patients reported at least one sexual problem. Among patients who reported no sexual problems, more had haematological cancers (P=0.009), fewer underwent surgery (P=0.004), fewer underwent surgery with external effects (P=0.032), and fewer were regular social drinkers (P=0.013); additionally, they had a higher mean Rosenberg self-esteem scale score (P=0.010), lower mean body image scale score (P=0.008), and lower mean Patient Health Questionnaire score (P=0.001). CONCLUSION: Aspects of life beyond disease condition and physical function should be considered in adult survivors of childhood cancers. Appropriate referral and intervention should be initiated for these patients when necessary.

Late Presentation of Paediatric Pink Pulseless Supracondylar Fracture of Humerus: A Case Report.

Supracondylar humeral fracture is the most common elbow injury in children. It may be associated with a vascular injury in nearly 20% of the cases with a pink pulseless limb. We present a unique case of a paediatric pink pulseless supracondylar humeral fracture, seen late, on the 16th-day post-trauma. Open reduction, cross Kirschner wiring, and brachial artery exploration and repair were performed, and the patient recovered well. Early open reduction and exploration of the brachial artery with or without prior CT angiography was a safe approach in treating patients who presented at 16 days.

Cell-bound complement activation products (CB-CAPs) have high sensitivity and specificity in pediatric-onset systemic lupus erythematosus and correlate with disease activity.

OBJECTIVE: Elevated levels of cell-bound complement activation products (CB-CAPs) (C4d deposition on B lymphocytes (BC4d) and/or erythrocytes (EC4d)) are sensitive and specific in diagnosis and monitoring of adult systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Our objective was to evaluate the role of CB-CAPs for diagnosis and monitoring of pediatric-onset SLE (pSLE). METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 28 pSLE and 22 juvenile arthritis patients was conducted. SLE disease activity was determined using a clinical Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) that excluded serologies. Autoantibodies were measured using solid-phase immunoassays, C3 and C4 using immunoturbidimetry, and CB-CAPs using quantitative flow cytometry. Abnormal CB-CAPs were defined as EC4d or BC4d above the 99th percentile for healthy adults (>14 and > 60 net mean fluorescence intensity (MFI), respectively). Performance characteristics of CB-CAPs were assessed using area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristics. Linear mixed effect models evaluated the correlation between CB-CAPs and clinical SLEDAI over 6 months. RESULTS: BC4d yielded higher AUC (0.91 ± 0.04) than C3 (0.63 ± 0.08) and C4 (0.67 ± 0.08) ( p < 0.05). Abnormal CB-CAPs were 78% sensitive and 86% specific for diagnosis of pSLE (Youden's index = 0.64 ± 0.11). In contrast to BC4d, EC4d levels correlated with clinical SLEDAI ( p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: CB-CAPs (EC4d and BC4d) have higher sensitivity and specificity than low complement in pSLE, and may help with diagnosis of pSLE. EC4d could provide a useful biomarker for disease activity monitoring.

Tumor inhibitory effects of intravesical Ganoderma lucidum instillation in the syngeneic orthotopic MB49/C57 bladder cancer mice model.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Ganoderma lucidum (GL) has been traditionally used in oriental medicine as superior health tonic, and there are numerous scientific evidences of its antitumorigenic activities. AIM OF THE STUDY: To evaluate the intravesical chemopreventive effects of ethanol extract of GL (GLe) on bladder cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Intravesical therapy is defined as the direct instillation of a liquid drug into bladder through a catheter. Bacille Calmette-Guerin(BCG) solution is applied intravesically as a conventional immunotherapy for preventing recurrence of bladder cancer. By adopting the MB49/C57 bladder cancer mice model, an overall 60 MB49-implanted mice were randomized into 3 groups and treated according to 3 treatment arms, including GLe, BCG and PBS. Additionally, wild-type mice without MB49 cell inoculation and treated with PBS were used as the negative control group. Testing agents were instilled intravesically for 2 h and repeated after one week for evaluating the effects on preventing the tumor formation and growth. The treated-mice were closely monitored for major adverse effects. RESULTS: GLe demonstrated more potent cytotoxic effects than BCG on MB49 cells, although both in dose-dependent manner. In the MB49-implanted mice, 80 µg/ml GLe was shown to delay the tumor formation by one week, whereas the averaged tumor volume measured at endpoint was 3.6-fold and 4.6-fold smaller than that of the BCG or PBS, respectively. However, no significant effects were observed on body weight and hematuria. CONCLUSION: Current findings in mice suggested intravesical GLe therapy as an effective and safe chemopreventive strategy for inhibiting bladder tumor formation.

Local policy proposals can bridge Latino and (most) white Americans' response to immigration.

In the past 15 years, the adoption of subnational immigration policies in the United States, such as those established by individual states, has gone from nearly zero to over 300 per year. These include welcoming policies aimed at attracting and incorporating immigrants, as well as unwelcoming policies directed at denying immigrants access to public resources and services. Using data from a 2016 random digit-dialing telephone survey with an embedded experiment, we examine whether institutional support for policies that are either welcoming or hostile toward immigrants differentially shape Latinos' and whites' feelings of belonging in their state (Arizona/New Mexico, adjacent states with contrasting immigration policies). We randomly assigned individuals from the representative sample (n = 1,903) of Latinos (US and foreign born) and whites (all US born) to consider policies that were either welcoming of or hostile toward immigrants. Across both states of residence, Latinos, especially those foreign born, regardless of citizenship, expressed more positive affect and greater belonging when primed with a welcoming (vs. hostile) policy. Demonstrating the importance of local norms, these patterns held among US-born whites, except among self-identified politically conservative whites, who showed more negative affect and lower levels of belonging in response to welcoming policies. Thus, welcoming immigration policies, supported by institutional authorities, can create a sense of belonging not only among newcomers that is vital to successful integration but also among a large segment of the population that is not a direct beneficiary of such policies-US-born whites.

Complication rates of external ventricular drain insertion by surgeons of different experience.

Introduction Insertion of external ventricular drain (EVD) is a widely accepted, routinely performed procedure for treatment of hydrocephalus and raised intracranial pressure. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether a surgeon's experience affects the associated complication rate. Methods This retrospective study included all adult patients undergoing EVD insertion at a single centre between July 2013 and June 2015. Medical records were retrieved to obtain details on patient demographics, surgical indication, risk factors for infection and use of anticoagulants or antiplatelets. Surgeon experience, operative time, intraoperative antibiotic prophylaxis, need for revision surgery and EVD associated infection were examined. Information on catheter tip position and radiological evidence of intracranial haemorrhage was obtained from postoperative imaging. Results A total of 89 patients were included in the study. The overall infection, haemorrhage and revision rates were 4.8%, 7.8% and 13.0% respectively, with no significant difference among surgeons of different experience. The mean operating time for patients who developed an infection was 22 minutes while for those without an infection, it was 33 minutes (p=0.474). Anticoagulation/antiplatelet use did not appear to increase the rate of haemorrhage. The infection rate did not correlate with known risk factors (eg diabetes and steroids), operation start time (daytime vs out of hours) or duration of surgery although intraoperative (single dose) antibiotic prophylaxis seemed to reduce the infection rate. There was also a correlation between longer duration of catheterisation and increased risk of infection. Conclusions This is the first study demonstrating there is no significant difference in complication rates between surgeons of different experience. EVD insertion is a core neurosurgical skill and junior trainees should be trained to perform it.

Epidemiology: Past, Present, and Future Impacts on Understanding Disease Dynamics and Improving Plant Disease Management-A Summary of Focus Issue Articles.

Epidemiology has made significant contributions to plant pathology by elucidating the general principles underlying the development of disease epidemics. This has resulted in a greatly improved theoretical and empirical understanding of the dynamics of disease epidemics in time and space, predictions of disease outbreaks or the need for disease control in real-time basis, and tactical and strategic solutions to disease problems. Availability of high-resolution experimental data at multiple temporal and spatial scales has now provided a platform to test and validate theories on the spread of diseases at a wide range of spatial scales ranging from the local to the landscape level. Relatively new approaches in plant disease epidemiology, ranging from network to information theory, coupled with the availability of large-scale datasets and the rapid development of computer technology, are leading to revolutionary thinking about epidemics that can result in considerable improvement of strategic and tactical decision making in the control and management of plant diseases. Methods that were previously restricted to topics such as population biology or evolution are now being employed in epidemiology to enable a better understanding of the forces that drive the development of plant disease epidemics in space and time. This Focus Issue of Phytopathology features research articles that address broad themes in epidemiology including social and political consequences of disease epidemics, decision theory and support, pathogen dispersal and disease spread, disease assessment and pathogen biology and disease resistance. It is important to emphasize that these articles are just a sample of the types of research projects that are relevant to epidemiology. Below, we provide a succinct summary of the articles that are published in this Focus Issue .

Randomized clinical trial of hepatic resection versus radiofrequency ablation for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic resection and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) are treatment options for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Whether tumour recurrence and long-term survival favour either treatment has not been established. This randomized trial aimed to test the hypothesis that RFA is superior to hepatic resection in terms of lower tumour recurrence rate and better long-term survival. METHODS: Patients with early-stage HCC (solitary tumour no larger than 5 cm; or no more than 3 tumours, each 3 cm or smaller) were randomized into hepatic resection and RFA groups. Demographic and clinical characteristics, and short- and long-term outcome measures were compared between groups. Primary and secondary outcome measures were overall tumour recurrence and survival respectively. RESULTS: Clinicopathological data were similar in the two groups, which each contained 109 patients. The RFA group had a shorter treatment duration, less blood loss and shorter hospital stay than the resection group. Mortality and morbidity rates were similar in the two groups. The overall tumour recurrence rate was similar in the resection and RFA groups (71·3 versus 81·7 per cent respectively). The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 94·5, 80·6, 66·5 and 47·6 per cent respectively in the resection group, compared with 95·4, 82·3, 66·4 and 41·8 per cent in the RFA group (P = 0·531). Corresponding disease-free survival rates were 74·1, 50·9, 41·5 and 31·9 per cent in the resection group, and 70·6, 46·6, 33·6 and 18·6 per cent in the RFA group (P = 0·072). CONCLUSION: RFA for early-stage HCC is not superior to hepatic resection, in terms of tumour recurrence, overall survival and disease-free survival. Registration number: HKUCTR-10 (http://www.hkuctr.com).

Do men and women with intellectual disabilities understand death?

BACKGROUND: Individuals with ID are often withheld information about the death of their loved ones as it has often been thought that they do not understand death or cannot grieve. This grief exacerbates the stress of individuals with ID as they often encounter secondary losses such as transitioning to a care facility. The aim of this study is to investigate men and women with ID understanding death concepts and to what extent. METHOD: Adopting a stratified random sampling method, 156 Chinese people with ID were invited to join the study. One hundred and ten participants were interviewed using simple death related vignettes expanding upon and replicating a published study carried out in Ireland. The understanding of the five death concepts: causality, irreversibility, nonfunctionality, universality and inevitability was examined. The correlates of demographics, bereavement experiences and comprehension were explored. RESULTS: The majority of the participants did understand concepts such as death is irreversible and that the deceased no longer function. One third of the participants understood causality and the universality of death. One fifth understood the inevitability of death. Previous bereavement experiences were correlated with higher understanding. Communication and community skills were correlated with all concepts of death except universality. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that individuals with ID do have a partial to full understanding of the concepts of death. The culture of Hong Kong is one that considers death to be a taboo or unlucky subject. Therefore, the results mirror the the lack of understanding of universality and inevitability concepts as it is forbidden to speak of these concepts. An open and honest environment is encouraged to educate individuals with ID about death and bereavement.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.