A model of reopening businesses to decrease the heath and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from Iran.

Background: OVID-19 is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The closure of governmental and nongovernmental centers as well as social, cultural, and economic activities are other major negative impacts of the virus. The present paper aimed to develop a model of economic and health-related factors which affect the reopening of businesses and the proper management of the effect of virus on different aspects, particularly on people's health and economy. Methods: In order to facilitate decision-making and model risk analysis of guilds and occupations, an expert panel, including eight 8 experts, was convened by the Ministry of Health in Iran to prepare a strategic framework for the national taskforce of COVID-19 management. The panel spent many hours to prepare a simple model of reopening businesses and prioritize them from low to high risks. Results: The experts identified and weighed seven health and three economic-related factors. The businesses and jobs were classified into 69 categories based on their similarities; they were also graded according to a predefined five- point Likert scale and categorized into three levels of low, medium, and high risk. The policymakers recommended to reopen businesses stratified by risk levels at least two weeks' intervals. Conclusion: The relaunch strategy in Iran put health and safety first while gradually reopening businesses, resuming activities, and getting people back to work. At the same time, attempts were made to slow the spread of the virus through following public health measures, social distancing, good hygiene, and continued acting responsibly. As many countries may have to deal with the same issue, this model can help them adopt appropriate policies and strategies for disease containment.

Flash flood preparedness in Golestan province of Iran: a community intervention trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate effectiveness of a community-based preparedness program for flash floods. DESIGN: A controlled community intervention trial with preassessment and postassessment. SETTING: Fifteen intervention villages and 16 control villages in Golestan province of Iran. PARTICIPANTS: People more than six years of age. INTERVENTION: Intervention program consisted assembling Village Disaster Taskforces (VDTs), training of VDTs and community, evacuation drill, and program monitoring. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Individual participation in household preparedness actions including, preparedness meeting, risk mapping, preparation of emergency supplies, assisting vulnerable people, and evacuation drill. RESULTS: Our intervention improved preparedness of local community for flash floods in term of all interested outcome measures. For instance, adjusted odds ratio for participation in an evacuation drill in intervention area in postassessment compared with preassessment was 29.05 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.77-38.76), whereas in control area it was 2.69 (95% CI: 1.96-3.70). Difference in these odds ratios was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Participation in a family preparedness meeting and risk mapping were helpful in motivating individuals to take other preparedness actions. Women were found prepared as much as the men. Younger people showed lower participation in preparation of family emergency supplies but higher attendance in evacuation drills. Participation in evacuation drills decreased with increasing age. It was a positive association between risk perception and taking all preparedness actions. CONCLUSION: Flood preparedness programs should focus on participatory risk assessment and preparedness techniques, strive to improve risk perception and female capabilities, and ensure providing assistance to the older people during evacuation.

Evaluation of Golestan Province's Early Warning System for flash floods, Iran, 2006-7.

Golestan province located in NE Iran is well known for deadly flash floods. This study aimed to evaluate the region's Early Warning System (EWS) for flash floods. We used an adapted version of the questionnaire developed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. We reviewed documents on the EWS of Golestan, and conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with experts and affected people in Kalaleh and Minoodasht. Results were discussed by an expert panel. Regarding risk knowledge, there was a hazard map at Provincial Disaster Taskforce (PDT) drawn by the provincial Office for Water Resource Management, but no risk analysis was available. Local people were aware of their exposure to flooding, but not aware of the existence of a hazard map and their vulnerability situation. In terms of monitoring and warning, PDT faced serious limitations in issuing Early Warnings, including (1) an inability to make point predictions of rainfall, and (2) the absence of a warning threshold. Dissemination and communication issued by the Meteorological Office followed a top-to-bottom direction. The contents were neither clearly understood by other institutions nor reached the potential recipients within an appropriate time frame. There was a need for a comprehensive response plan with adequate exercises, and no evaluation framework existed. Golestan EWS is in dire need of improvement. To fill in the gaps ensuring local people receive timely warning, we propose a community-based model called "Village Disaster Taskforce" (VDT) in which individual villages act as operational units, but interlinked with other villages and PDT.