Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50% in 5 years?

Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations and non-governmental organizations that signed the New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF). We assemble and refine a robust dataset to establish a 2001-2013 benchmark for average annual carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation at 2.270 Gt CO2 yr(-1). Brazil did not sign the NYDF, yet from 2001 to 2013, Brazil ranks first for both carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation and reductions in those emissions - its share of the total declined from a peak of 69% in 2003 to a low of 20% in 2012. Indonesia, an NYDF signatory, is the second highest emitter, peaking in 2012 at 0.362 Gt CO2 yr(-1) before declining to 0.205 Gt CO2 yr(-1) in 2013. The other 14 NYDF tropical country signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.317 Gt CO2 yr(-1) , while the other 86 tropical country non-signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.688 Gt CO2 yr(-1). We outline two scenarios for achieving the 50% emission reduction target by 2020, both emphasizing the critical role of Brazil and the need to reverse the trends of increasing carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation in many other tropical countries that, from 2001 to 2013, have largely offset Brazil's reductions. Achieving the target will therefore be challenging, even though it is in the self-interest of the international community. Conserving rather than cutting down tropical forests requires shifting economic development away from a dependence on natural resource depletion toward recognition of the dependence of human societies on the natural capital that tropical forests represent and the goods and services they provide.

Modeling the Complex Impacts of Timber Harvests to Find Optimal Management Regimes for Amazon Tidal Floodplain Forests.

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region's ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation.

Altered resource availability and the population dynamics of tree species in Amazonian secondary forests.

Despite research demonstrating that water and nutrient availability exert strong effects on multiple ecosystem processes in tropical forests, little is known about the effect of these factors on the demography and population dynamics of tropical trees. Over the course of 5 years, we monitored two common Amazonian secondary forest species-Lacistema pubescens and Myrcia sylvatica-in dry-season irrigation, litter-removal and control plots. We then evaluated the effects of altered water and nutrient availability on population demography and dynamics using matrix models and life table response experiments. Our results show that despite prolonged experimental manipulation of water and nutrient availability, there were nearly no consistent and unidirectional treatment effects on the demography of either species. The patterns and significance of observed treatment effects were largely dependent on cross-year variability not related to rainfall patterns, and disappeared once we pooled data across years. Furthermore, most of these transient treatment effects had little effect on population growth rates. Our results suggest that despite major experimental manipulations of water and nutrient availability-factors considered critical to the ecology of tropical pioneer tree species-autogenic light limitation appears to be the primary regulator of tree demography at early/mid successional stages. Indeed, the effects of light availability may completely override those of other factors thought to influence the successional development of Amazonian secondary forests.

Beyond reaping the first harvest: management objectives for timber production in the Brazilian Amazon.

Millions of hectares of future timber concessions are slated to be implemented within large public forests under the forest law passed in 2006 by the Brazilian Congress. Additional millions of hectares of large, privately owned forests and smaller areas of community forests are certified as well managed by the Forest Stewardship Council, based on certification standards that will be reviewed in 2007. Forest size and ownership are two key factors that influence management objectives and the capacity of forest managers to achieve them. Current best ecological practices for timber production from Brazil's native Amazon forests are limited to reduced-impact logging (RIL) systems that minimize the environmental impacts of harvest operations and that obey legal restrictions regarding minimum diameters, rare species, retention of seed trees, maximum logging intensity, preservation of riparian buffers, fire protection, and wildlife conservation. Compared with conventional, predatory harvesting that constitutes >90% of the region's timber production, RIL dramatically reduces logging damage and helps maintain forest cover and the presence of rare tree species, but current RIL guidelines do not assure that the volume of timber removed can be sustained in future harvests. We believe it is counterproductive to expect smallholders to subscribe to additional harvest limitations beyond RIL, that larger private forested landholdings managed for timber production should be sustainable with respect to the total volume of timber harvested per unit area per cutting cycle, and that large public forests should sustain volume production of individual harvested species. These additional requirements would improve the ecological sustainability of forest management and help create a stable forest-based sector of the region's economy, but would involve costs associated with lengthened cutting cycles, reduced harvest intensities, and/or postharvest silviculture to promote adequate growth and regeneration.

Recovery of forest structure and spectral properties after selective logging in lowland Bolivia.

Effective monitoring of selective logging from remotely sensed data requires an understanding of the spatial and temporal thresholds that constrain the utility of those data, as well as the structural and ecological characteristics of forest disturbances that are responsible for those constraints. Here we assess those thresholds and characteristics within the context of selective logging in the Bolivian Amazon. Our study combined field measurements of the spatial and temporal dynamics of felling gaps and skid trails ranging from <1 to 19 months following reduced-impact logging in a forest in lowland Bolivia with remote-sensing measurements from simultaneous monthly ASTER satellite overpasses. A probabilistic spectral mixture model (AutoMCU) was used to derive per-pixel fractional cover estimates of photosynthetic vegetation (PV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and soil. Results were compared with the normalized difference in vegetation index (NDVI). The forest studied had considerably lower basal area and harvest volumes than logged sites in the Brazilian Amazon where similar remote-sensing analyses have been performed. Nonetheless, individual felling-gap area was positively correlated with canopy openness, percentage liana coverage, rates of vegetation regrowth, and height of remnant NPV. Both liana growth and NPV occurred primarily in the crown zone of the felling gap, whereas exposed soil was limited to the trunk zone of the gap. In felling gaps >400 m2, NDVI, and the PV and NPV fractions, were distinguishable from unlogged forest values for up to six months after logging; felling gaps <400 m2 were distinguishable for up to three months after harvest, but we were entirely unable to distinguish skid trails from our analysis of the spectral data.

Correlation but no causation between leaf nitrogen and maximum assimilation: the role of drought and reproduction in gas exchange in an understory tropical plant Miconia ciliata (Melastomataceae).

Alternative hypotheses were tested to explain a previously reported anomaly in the response of leaf photosynthetic capacity at light saturation (A(max)) in Miconia ciliata to dry-season irrigation. The anomaly is characterized by an abrupt increase in leaf A(max) for nonirrigated plants at the onset of the rainy season to values that significantly exceeded corresponding measurements for plants that were irrigated during the previous dry season. Hypothesis 1 posits that a pulse in leaf nitrogen increases CO(2) assimilation in nonirrigated plants at the onset of the wet season and is dampened for irrigated plants; this hypothesis was rejected because, although a wet-season nitrogen pulse did occur, it was identical for both irrigated and nonirrigated plants and was preceded by the increase in assimilation by nonirrigated plants. Hypothesis 2 posits that a reproduction-related, compensatory photosynthetic response occurs in nonirrigated plants following the onset of the wet season and is dampened in irrigated plants; consistent with hypothesis 2, high maximum assimilation rates for control plants in the wet season were significantly correlated with fruiting and flowering, whereas irrigation caused flowering and fruiting in the dry season, spreading M. ciliata reproductive activity in irrigated plants across the entire year.

Drought constraints on leaf gas exchange by Miconia ciliata (Melastomataceae) in the understory of an eastern Amazonian regrowth forest stand.

Analyses of the effects of drought stress on Amazonian regrowth stands are lacking. We measured leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential of Miconia ciliata (Melastomataceae) in a dry-season irrigation experiment in 14-yr-old regrowth. In the dry season, irrigated plants maintained significantly higher leaf water potentials, photosynthetic capacity at light saturation (A(max)), stomatal conductance (g(s)), internal CO(2) concentration (C(i)), and lower A(max)/g(s) than control plants. The degree of dry-season down-regulation of control plant A(max), along with its fast recovery following rain, reveals the importance of occasional dry-season rains to the carbon budget of M. ciliata. During the wet season, we observed higher A(max) for control plants than for plants that had been irrigated during the dry season. We hypothesize that reduced drought constraints on photosynthesis of irrigated plants advanced the flowering and fruiting phenology of irrigated plants into the dry season. Flowers and fruits of control plants developed later, during the wet season, potentially stimulating a compensatory reproductive photosynthesis response in nearby leaves. The relative drought intolerance of M. ciliata may be a deciding factor in its ability to survive through the dynamic successional development of the regrowth stand studied.