Application of probabilistic methods to address variability and uncertainty in estimating risks for non-cancer health effects.

Human health risk assessment currently uses the reference dose or reference concentration (RfD, RfC) approach to describe the level of exposure to chemical hazards without appreciable risk for non-cancer health effects in people. However, this "bright line" approach assumes that there is minimal risk below the RfD/RfC with some undefined level of increased risk at exposures above the RfD/RfC and has limited utility for decision-making. Rather than this dichotomous approach, non-cancer risk assessment can benefit from incorporating probabilistic methods to estimate the amount of risk across a wide range of exposures and define a risk-specific dose. We identify and review existing approaches for conducting probabilistic non-cancer risk assessments. Using perchloroethylene (PCE), a priority chemical for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under the Toxic Substances Control Act, we calculate risk-specific doses for the effects on cognitive deficits using probabilistic risk assessment approaches. Our probabilistic risk assessment shows that chronic exposure to 0.004 ppm PCE is associated with approximately 1-in-1,000 risk for a 5% reduced performance on the Wechsler Memory Scale Visual Reproduction subtest with 95% confidence. This exposure level associated with a 1-in-1000 risk for non-cancer neurocognitive deficits is lower than the current RfC for PCE of 0.0059 ppm, which is based on standard point of departure and uncertainty factor approaches for the same neurotoxic effects in occupationally exposed adults. We found that the population-level risk of cognitive deficit (indicating central nervous system dysfunction) is estimated to be greater than the cancer risk level of 1-in-100,000 at a similar chronic exposure level. The extension of toxicological endpoints to more clinically relevant endpoints, along with consideration of magnitude and severity of effect, will help in the selection of acceptable risk targets for non-cancer effects. We find that probabilistic approaches can 1) provide greater context to existing RfDs and RfCs by describing the probability of effect across a range of exposure levels including the RfD/RfC in a diverse population for a given magnitude of effect and confidence level, 2) relate effects of chemical exposures to clinical disease risk so that the resulting risk assessments can better inform decision-makers and benefit-cost analysis, and 3) better reflect the underlying biology and uncertainties of population risks.

A science-based agenda for health-protective chemical assessments and decisions: overview and consensus statement.

The manufacture and production of industrial chemicals continues to increase, with hundreds of thousands of chemicals and chemical mixtures used worldwide, leading to widespread population exposures and resultant health impacts. Low-wealth communities and communities of color often bear disproportionate burdens of exposure and impact; all compounded by regulatory delays to the detriment of public health. Multiple authoritative bodies and scientific consensus groups have called for actions to prevent harmful exposures via improved policy approaches. We worked across multiple disciplines to develop consensus recommendations for health-protective, scientific approaches to reduce harmful chemical exposures, which can be applied to current US policies governing industrial chemicals and environmental pollutants. This consensus identifies five principles and scientific recommendations for improving how agencies like the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approach and conduct hazard and risk assessment and risk management analyses: (1) the financial burden of data generation for any given chemical on (or to be introduced to) the market should be on the chemical producers that benefit from their production and use; (2) lack of data does not equate to lack of hazard, exposure, or risk; (3) populations at greater risk, including those that are more susceptible or more highly exposed, must be better identified and protected to account for their real-world risks; (4) hazard and risk assessments should not assume existence of a "safe" or "no-risk" level of chemical exposure in the diverse general population; and (5) hazard and risk assessments must evaluate and account for financial conflicts of interest in the body of evidence. While many of these recommendations focus specifically on the EPA, they are general principles for environmental health that could be adopted by any agency or entity engaged in exposure, hazard, and risk assessment. We also detail recommendations for four priority areas in companion papers (exposure assessment methods, human variability assessment, methods for quantifying non-cancer health outcomes, and a framework for defining chemical classes). These recommendations constitute key steps for improved evidence-based environmental health decision-making and public health protection.

Modeling the transplacental transfer of small molecules using machine learning: a case study on per- and polyfluorinated substances (PFAS).

BACKGROUND: Despite their large numbers and widespread use, very little is known about the extent to which per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can cross the placenta and expose the developing fetus. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study is to develop a computational approach that can be used to evaluate the of extend to which small molecules, and in particular PFAS, can cross to cross the placenta and partition to cord blood. METHODS: We collected experimental values of the concentration ratio between cord and maternal blood (RCM) for 260 chemical compounds and calculated their physicochemical descriptors using the cheminformatics package Mordred. We used the compiled database to, train and test an artificial neural network (ANN). And then applied the best performing model to predict RCM for a large dataset of PFAS chemicals (n = 7982). We, finally, examined the calculated physicochemical descriptors of the chemicals to identify which properties correlated significantly with RCM. RESULTS: We determined that 7855 compounds were within the applicability domain and 127 compounds are outside the applicability domain of our model. Our predictions of RCM for PFAS suggested that 3623 compounds had a log RCM > 0 indicating preferable partitioning to cord blood. Some examples of these compounds were bisphenol AF, 2,2-bis(4-aminophenyl)hexafluoropropane, and nonafluoro-tert-butyl 3-methylbutyrate. SIGNIFICANCE: These observations have important public health implications as many PFAS have been shown to interfere with fetal development. In addition, as these compounds are highly persistent and many of them can readily cross the placenta, they are expected to remain in the population for a long time as they are being passed from parent to offspring. IMPACT: Understanding the behavior of chemicals in the human body during pregnancy is critical in preventing harmful exposures during critical periods of development. Many chemicals can cross the placenta and expose the fetus, however, the mechanism by which this transport occurs is not well understood. In our study, we developed a machine learning model that describes the transplacental transfer of chemicals as a function of their physicochemical properties. The model was then used to make predictions for a set of 7982 per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances that are listed on EPA's CompTox Chemicals Dashboard. The model can be applied to make predictions for other chemical categories of interest, such as plasticizers and pesticides. Accurate predictions of RCM can help scientists and regulators to prioritize chemicals that have the potential to cause harm by exposing the fetus.

Consensus on the Key Characteristics of Immunotoxic Agents as a Basis for Hazard Identification.

BACKGROUND: Key characteristics (KCs), properties of agents or exposures that confer potential hazard, have been developed for carcinogens and other toxicant classes. KCs have been used in the systematic assessment of hazards and to identify assay and data gaps that limit screening and risk assessment. Many of the mechanisms through which pharmaceuticals and occupational or environmental agents modulate immune function are well recognized. Thus KCs could be identified for immunoactive substances and applied to improve hazard assessment of immunodulatory agents. OBJECTIVES: The goal was to generate a consensus-based synthesis of scientific evidence describing the KCs of agents known to cause immunotoxicity and potential applications, such as assays to measure the KCs. METHODS: A committee of 18 experts with diverse specialties identified 10 KCs of immunotoxic agents, namely, 1) covalently binds to proteins to form novel antigens, 2) affects antigen processing and presentation, 3) alters immune cell signaling, 4) alters immune cell proliferation, 5) modifies cellular differentiation, 6) alters immune cell-cell communication, 7) alters effector function of specific cell types, 8) alters immune cell trafficking, 9) alters cell death processes, and 10) breaks down immune tolerance. The group considered how these KCs could influence immune processes and contribute to hypersensitivity, inappropriate enhancement, immunosuppression, or autoimmunity. DISCUSSION: KCs can be used to improve efforts to identify agents that cause immunotoxicity via one or more mechanisms, to develop better testing and biomarker approaches to evaluate immunotoxicity, and to enable a more comprehensive and mechanistic understanding of adverse effects of exposures on the immune system. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10800.

Animal evidence considered in determination of cannabis smoke and Δ9 -tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ9 -THC) as causing reproductive toxicity (developmental endpoint); Part II. Neurodevelopmental effects.

This review focuses on neurodevelopmental effects observed in animal studies of cannabis smoke and Δ9 -THC. Effects in offspring after preconceptional, prenatal, or perinatal exposure to cannabis smoke or Δ9 -THC were considered. Locomotor and exploratory behavior effects were noted in rats. Cognitive effects observed included impairment of memory and learning, attention deficits, time taken to complete tasks (rats) and alterations in response to visual stimuli (rats/monkeys). Emotionality was observed in rodents as an increase in separation-induced ultrasonic vocalizations, reduced social interaction and play behavior, and increased generalized anxiety. Increased rate of acquisition of morphine self-administration and/or enhanced sensitivity towards the rewarding effects of morphine or heroin were observed in adult rats prenatally exposed to Δ9 -THC. Expression of cannabinoid receptors was examined in rodent studies along with behavioral parameters. Altered mRNA levels of genes relevant to synaptic plasticity in the nucleus accumbens (the brain region associated with compulsivity, addiction vulnerability, and reward sensitivity) were noted. Findings in zebrafish supported effects in mammalian models. Neurochemical effects on specific brain regions and neurotransmitter systems seen in these animal studies appear to impact cognitive function, motor activity, and drug sensitivity. Mechanistic studies provided evidence for the biological plausibility of effects observed. Observations from animal studies of changes in motor behavior, cognitive performance, emotionality and susceptibility to drug sensitivity later in life were among the findings from animal and human studies considered by California's Developmental and Reproductive Toxicant Identification Committee, in concluding that cannabis smoke and Δ9 -THC are developmental toxicants.

Animal evidence considered in determination of cannabis smoke and Δ9 -tetrahydrocannabinol as causing reproductive toxicity (developmental endpoint): Part III. Proposed neurodevelopmental mechanisms of action.

This review summarizes the most common potential pathways of neurodevelopmental toxicity due to perinatal exposure to Δ9 -tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ9 -THC) that lead to behavioral and other adverse outcomes (AOs). This is Part III in a set of reviews highlighting the animal-derived data considered by California's Developmental and Reproductive Toxicant Identification Committee (DARTIC) in 2019. The Hazard Identification Document (HID) provided to the DARTIC included a summary of human, whole animal, and mechanistic data on the neurodevelopmental toxicity of cannabis smoke and Δ9 -THC. The literature search for mechanistic data has been updated through 2020. We focus on mechanistic pathways relating to behavioral and other neurodevelopmental outcomes of perinatal exposure to Δ9 -THC. The endocannabinoid system (EC system) plays a crucial role in many processes involved in neurodevelopment and exposure to Δ9 -THC can alter these processes. Whole animal studies report changes in cognitive ability, behavior, and motor function after prenatal exposure to Δ9 -THC. Findings from mechanistic studies add to this evidence and further provide information regarding the pathways leading to these outcomes. Neuromechanistic studies can bridge the gaps between molecular initiating events and apical neurodevelopmental endpoints caused by a chemical. They offer insight into potential alterations in the same pathways by other chemicals that can also result in AOs. Studies of cannabinoid receptor agonist-induced molecular alterations and provide deep biological plausibility at the mechanistic level for the cognitive, behavioral, and motor impairments observed in animal studies after perinatal exposure to Δ9 -THC.

Animal evidence considered in determination of cannabis smoke and Δ9 -tetrahydrocannabinol as causing reproductive toxicity (developmental endpoint); Part I. Somatic development.

OBJECTIVES: On December 11, 2019, California's Developmental and Reproductive Toxicant Identification Committee (DARTIC) met to consider the addition of cannabis smoke and Δ9 -THC to the Proposition 65 list as causing reproductive toxicity (developmental endpoint). As the lead state agency for implementing Proposition 65, the Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) reviewed and summarized the relevant scientific literature in the form of a hazard identification document (HID). Here we provide reviews based on the HID: shortened, revised, and reformatted for a larger audience. METHODS: While the HID included both human and animal data, this set of three reviews will highlight the animal-derived data pertaining to somatic development (Part I), neurodevelopmental effects (Part II), and proposed neurodevelopmental mechanisms of action (Part III). RESULTS: Endogenous cannabinoids (eCBs) and their receptors serve many critical functions in normal development. Δ9 -THC can interfere with these functions. Mechanistic studies employed techniques including: blocking Δ9 -THC binding to endocannabinoid (EC) receptors, inhibiting Δ9 -THC metabolism, and/or using animals expressing knockout mutations of EC receptors. Apical somatic effects of cannabis smoke or Δ9 -THC reported in whole animal studies included decreases in offspring viability and growth. Mechanistic studies discussed in Part I focused on Δ9 -THC effects on early embryos and implantation, immune development, and bone growth. CONCLUSIONS: In reaching its decision to list cannabis and Δ9 -THC as a developmental toxicant under California's Proposition 65, the DARTIC considered biological plausibility and the consistency of mechanistic information with effects reported in human and whole animal studies.

Key Characteristics of Cardiovascular Toxicants.

BACKGROUND: The concept of chemical agents having properties that confer potential hazard called key characteristics (KCs) was first developed to identify carcinogenic hazards. Identification of KCs of cardiovascular (CV) toxicants could facilitate the systematic assessment of CV hazards and understanding of assay and data gaps associated with current approaches. OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop a consensus-based synthesis of scientific evidence on the KCs of chemical and nonchemical agents known to cause CV toxicity along with methods to measure them. METHODS: An expert working group was convened to discuss mechanisms associated with CV toxicity. RESULTS: The group identified 12 KCs of CV toxicants, defined as exogenous agents that adversely interfere with function of the CV system. The KCs were organized into those primarily affecting cardiac tissue (numbers 1-4 below), the vascular system (5-7), or both (8-12), as follows: 1) impairs regulation of cardiac excitability, 2) impairs cardiac contractility and relaxation, 3) induces cardiomyocyte injury and death, 4) induces proliferation of valve stroma, 5) impacts endothelial and vascular function, 6) alters hemostasis, 7) causes dyslipidemia, 8) impairs mitochondrial function, 9) modifies autonomic nervous system activity, 10) induces oxidative stress, 11) causes inflammation, and 12) alters hormone signaling. DISCUSSION: These 12 KCs can be used to help identify pharmaceuticals and environmental pollutants as CV toxicants, as well as to better understand the mechanistic underpinnings of their toxicity. For example, evidence exists that fine particulate matter [PM ≤2.5µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] air pollution, arsenic, anthracycline drugs, and other exogenous chemicals possess one or more of the described KCs. In conclusion, the KCs could be used to identify potential CV toxicants and to define a set of test methods to evaluate CV toxicity in a more comprehensive and standardized manner than current approaches. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9321.

Using the Key Characteristics of Carcinogens to Develop Research on Chemical Mixtures and Cancer.

BACKGROUND: People are exposed to numerous chemicals throughout their lifetimes. Many of these chemicals display one or more of the key characteristics of carcinogens or interact with processes described in the hallmarks of cancer. Therefore, evaluating the effects of chemical mixtures on cancer development is an important pursuit. Challenges involved in designing research studies to evaluate the joint action of chemicals on cancer risk include the time taken to perform the experiments because of the long latency and choosing an appropriate experimental design. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this work are to present the case for developing a research program on mixtures of environmental chemicals and cancer risk and describe recommended approaches. METHODS: A working group comprising the coauthors focused attention on the design of mixtures studies to inform cancer risk assessment as part of a larger effort to refine the key characteristics of carcinogens and explore their application. Working group members reviewed the key characteristics of carcinogens, hallmarks of cancer, and mixtures research for other disease end points. The group discussed options for developing tractable projects to evaluate the joint effects of environmental chemicals on cancer development. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Three approaches for developing a research program to evaluate the effects of mixtures on cancer development were proposed: a chemical screening approach, a transgenic model-based approach, and a disease-centered approach. Advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8525.

The Key Characteristics of Carcinogens: Relationship to the Hallmarks of Cancer, Relevant Biomarkers, and Assays to Measure Them.

The key characteristics (KC) of human carcinogens provide a uniform approach to evaluating mechanistic evidence in cancer hazard identification. Refinements to the approach were requested by organizations and individuals applying the KCs. We assembled an expert committee with knowledge of carcinogenesis and experience in applying the KCs in cancer hazard identification. We leveraged this expertise and examined the literature to more clearly describe each KC, identify current and emerging assays and in vivo biomarkers that can be used to measure them, and make recommendations for future assay development. We found that the KCs are clearly distinct from the Hallmarks of Cancer, that interrelationships among the KCs can be leveraged to strengthen the KC approach (and an understanding of environmental carcinogenesis), and that the KC approach is applicable to the systematic evaluation of a broad range of potential cancer hazards in vivo and in vitro We identified gaps in coverage of the KCs by current assays. Future efforts should expand the breadth, specificity, and sensitivity of validated assays and biomarkers that can measure the 10 KCs. Refinement of the KC approach will enhance and accelerate carcinogen identification, a first step in cancer prevention.See all articles in this CEBP Focus section, "Environmental Carcinogenesis: Pathways to Prevention."

Consensus on the key characteristics of endocrine-disrupting chemicals as a basis for hazard identification.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are exogenous chemicals that interfere with hormone action, thereby increasing the risk of adverse health outcomes, including cancer, reproductive impairment, cognitive deficits and obesity. A complex literature of mechanistic studies provides evidence on the hazards of EDC exposure, yet there is no widely accepted systematic method to integrate these data to help identify EDC hazards. Inspired by work to improve hazard identification of carcinogens using key characteristics (KCs), we have developed ten KCs of EDCs based on our knowledge of hormone actions and EDC effects. In this Expert Consensus Statement, we describe the logic by which these KCs are identified and the assays that could be used to assess several of these KCs. We reflect on how these ten KCs can be used to identify, organize and utilize mechanistic data when evaluating chemicals as EDCs, and we use diethylstilbestrol, bisphenol A and perchlorate as examples to illustrate this approach.

Proposed Key Characteristics of Female Reproductive Toxicants as an Approach for Organizing and Evaluating Mechanistic Data in Hazard Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Identification of female reproductive toxicants is currently based largely on integrated epidemiological and in vivo toxicology data and, to a lesser degree, on mechanistic data. A uniform approach to systematically search, organize, integrate, and evaluate mechanistic evidence of female reproductive toxicity from various data types is lacking. OBJECTIVE: We sought to apply a key characteristics approach similar to that pioneered for carcinogen hazard identification to female reproductive toxicant hazard identification. METHODS: A working group of international experts was convened to discuss mechanisms associated with chemical-induced female reproductive toxicity and identified 10 key characteristics of chemicals that cause female reproductive toxicity: 1) alters hormone receptor signaling; alters reproductive hormone production, secretion, or metabolism; 2) chemical or metabolite is genotoxic; 3) induces epigenetic alterations; 4) causes mitochondrial dysfunction; 5) induces oxidative stress; 6) alters immune function; 7) alters cell signal transduction; 8) alters direct cell­cell interactions; 9) alters survival, proliferation, cell death, or metabolic pathways; and 10) alters microtubules and associated structures. As proof of principle, cyclophosphamide and diethylstilbestrol (DES), for which both human and animal studies have demonstrated female reproductive toxicity, display at least 5 and 3 key characteristics, respectively. 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), for which the epidemiological evidence is mixed, exhibits 5 key characteristics. DISCUSSION: Future efforts should focus on evaluating the proposed key characteristics against additional known and suspected female reproductive toxicants. Chemicals that exhibit one or more of the key characteristics could be prioritized for additional evaluation and testing. A key characteristics approach has the potential to integrate with pathway-based toxicity testing to improve prediction of female reproductive toxicity in chemicals and potentially prevent some toxicants from entering common use. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4971.

Proposed Key Characteristics of Male Reproductive Toxicants as an Approach for Organizing and Evaluating Mechanistic Evidence in Human Health Hazard Assessments.

BACKGROUND: Assessing chemicals for their potential to cause male reproductive toxicity involves the evaluation of evidence obtained from experimental, epidemiological, and mechanistic studies. Although mechanistic evidence plays an important role in hazard identification and evidence integration, the process of identifying, screening and analyzing mechanistic studies and outcomes is a challenging exercise due to the diversity of research models and methods and the variety of known and proposed pathways for chemical-induced toxicity. Ten key characteristics of carcinogens provide a valuable tool for organizing and assessing chemical-specific data by potential mechanisms for cancer-causing agents. However, such an approach has not yet been developed for noncancer adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The objective in this study was to identify a set of key characteristics that are frequently exhibited by exogenous agents that cause male reproductive toxicity and that could be applied for identifying, organizing, and summarizing mechanistic evidence related to this outcome. DISCUSSION: The identification of eight key characteristics of male reproductive toxicants was based on a survey of known male reproductive toxicants and established mechanisms and pathways of toxicity. The eight key characteristics can provide a basis for the systematic, transparent, and objective organization of mechanistic evidence relevant to chemical-induced effects on the male reproductive system. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5045.

An Integrated Approach Using Publicly Available Resources for Identifying and Characterizing Chemicals of Potential Toxicity Concern: Proof-of-Concept With Chemicals That Affect Cancer Pathways.

We developed an integrated, modular approach to predicting chemical toxicity relying on in vitro assay data, linkage of molecular targets to disease categories, and software for ranking chemical activity and examining structural features (chemotypes). We evaluate our approach in a proof-of-concept exercise to identify and prioritize chemicals of potential carcinogenicity concern. We identified 137 cancer pathway-related assays from a subset of U.S. EPA's ToxCast platforms. We mapped these assays to key characteristics of carcinogens and found they collectively assess 5 of 10 characteristics. We ranked all 1061 chemicals screened in Phases I and II of ToxCast by their activity in the selected cancer pathway-related assays using Toxicological Prioritization Index software. More chemicals used as biologically active agents (eg, pharmaceuticals) ranked in the upper 50% versus lower 50%. Twenty-three chemotypes are enriched in the top 5% (n = 54) of chemicals; these features may be important for their activity in cancer pathway-related assays. The biological coverage of the ToxCast assays related to cancer pathways is limited and short-term assays may not capture the biology of some key characteristics. Metabolism is also minimal in the assays. The ability of our approach to identify chemicals with cancer hazard is limited with the current input data, but we expect that our approach can be applied with future iterations of ToxCast and other data for improved chemical prioritization and characterization. The novel approach and proof-of-concept exercise described here for ranking chemicals for potential carcinogenicity concern is modular, adaptable, and amenable to evolving data streams.

Assessing health risks from multiple environmental stressors: Moving from G×E to I×E.

Research on disease causation often attempts to isolate the effects of individual factors, including individual genes or environmental factors. This reductionist approach has generated many discoveries, but misses important interactive and cumulative effects that may help explain the broad range of variability in disease occurrence observed across studies and individuals. A disease rarely results from a single factor, and instead results from a broader combination of factors, characterized here as intrinsic (I) and extrinsic (E) factors. Intrinsic vulnerability or resilience emanates from a variety of both fixed and shifting biological factors including genetic traits, while extrinsic factors comprise all biologically-relevant external stressors encountered across the lifespan. The I×E concept incorporates the multi-factorial and dynamic nature of health and disease and provides a unified, conceptual basis for integrating results from multiple areas of research, including genomics, G×E, developmental origins of health and disease, and the exposome. We describe the utility of the I×E concept to better understand and characterize the cumulative impact of multiple extrinsic and intrinsic factors on individual and population health. New research methods increasingly facilitate the measurement of multifactorial and interactive effects in epidemiological and toxicological studies. Tiered or indicator-based approaches can guide the selection of potentially relevant I and E factors for study and quantification, and exposomics methods may eventually produce results that can be used to generate a response function over the life course. Quantitative data on I×E interactive effects should generate a better understanding of the variability in human response to environmental factors. The proposed I×E concept highlights the role for broader study design in order to identify extrinsic and intrinsic factors amenable to interventions at the individual and population levels in order to enhance resilience, reduce vulnerability and improve health.

Cumulative effects of prenatal-exposure to exogenous chemicals and psychosocial stress on fetal growth: Systematic-review of the human and animal evidence.

BACKGROUND: Adverse effects of prenatal stress or environmental chemical exposures on fetal growth are well described, yet their combined effect remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic review on the combined impact and interaction of prenatal exposure to stress and chemicals on developmental outcomes. METHODS: We used the first three steps of the Navigation Guide systematic review. We wrote a protocol, performed a robust literature search to identify relevant animal and human studies and extracted data on developmental outcomes. For the most common outcome (fetal growth), we evaluated risk of bias, calculated effect sizes for main effects of individual and combined exposures, and performed a random effects meta-analysis of those studies reporting on odds of low birthweight (LBW) by smoking and socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: We identified 17 human- and 22 animal-studies of combined chemical and stress exposures and fetal growth. Human studies tended to have a lower risk of bias across nine domains. Generally, we found stronger effects for chemicals than stress, and these exposures were associated with reduced fetal growth in the low-stress group and the association was often greater in high stress groups, with limited evidence of effect modification. We found smoking associated with significantly increased odds of LBW, with a greater effect for high stress (low SES; OR 4.75 (2.46-9.16)) compared to low stress (high SES; OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.53-2.48)). Animal studies generally had a high risk of bias with no significant combined effect or effect modification. CONCLUSIONS: We found that despite concern for the combined effects of environmental chemicals and stress, this is still an under-studied topic, though limited available human studies indicate chemical exposures exert stronger effects than stress, and this effect is generally larger in the presence of stress.

Application of the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology to the evidence for developmental and reproductive toxicity of triclosan.

BACKGROUND: There are reports of developmental and reproductive health effects associated with the widely used biocide triclosan. OBJECTIVE: Apply the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology to answer the question: Does exposure to triclosan have adverse effects on human development or reproduction? METHODS: We applied the first 3 steps of the Navigation Guide methodology: 1) Specify a study question, 2) Select the evidence, and 3) Rate quality and strength of the evidence. We developed a protocol, conducted a comprehensive search of the literature, and identified relevant studies using pre-specified criteria. We assessed the number and type of all relevant studies. We evaluated each included study for risk of bias and rated the quality and strength of the evidence for the selected outcomes. We conducted a meta-analysis on a subset of suitable data. RESULTS: We found 4282 potentially relevant records, and 81 records met our inclusion criteria. Of the more than 100 endpoints identified by our search, we focused our evaluation on hormone concentration outcomes, which had the largest human and non-human mammalian data set. Three human studies and 8 studies conducted in rats reported thyroxine levels as outcomes. The rat data were amenable to meta-analysis. Because only one of the human thyroxine studies quantified exposure, we did not conduct a meta-analysis of the human data. Through meta-analysis of the data for rats, we estimated for prenatal exposure a 0.09% (95% CI: -0.20, 0.02) reduction in thyroxine concentration per mg triclosan/kg-bw in fetal and young rats compared to control. For postnatal exposure we estimated a 0.31% (95% CI: -0.38, -0.23) reduction in thyroxine per mg triclosan/kg-bw, also compared to control. Overall, we found low to moderate risk of bias across the human studies and moderate to high risk of bias across the non-human studies, and assigned a "moderate/low" quality rating to the body of evidence for human thyroid hormone alterations and a "moderate" quality rating to the body of evidence for non-human thyroid hormone alterations. CONCLUSION: Based on this application of the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology, we concluded that there was "sufficient" non-human evidence and "inadequate" human evidence of an association between triclosan exposure and thyroxine concentrations, and consequently, triclosan is "possibly toxic" to reproductive and developmental health. Thyroid hormone disruption is an upstream indicator of developmental toxicity. Additional endpoints may be identified as being of equal or greater concern as other data are developed or evaluated.

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

BACKGROUND: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. OBJECTIVE: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. METHODS: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. DISCUSSION: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. CONCLUSIONS: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K, Bois FY, Burgoon LD, Chiu WA, Crawford-Brown D, Crofton KM, DeVito M, Devlin RB, Edwards SW, Guyton KZ, Hattis D, Judson RS, Knight D, Krewski D, Lambert J, Maull EA, Mendrick D, Paoli GM, Patel CJ, Perkins EJ, Poje G, Portier CJ, Rusyn I, Schulte PA, Simeonov A, Smith MT, Thayer KA, Thomas RS, Thomas R, Tice RR, Vandenberg JJ, Villeneuve DL, Wesselkamper S, Whelan M, Whittaker C, White R, Xia M, Yauk C, Zeise L, Zhao J, DeWoskin RS. 2016. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment multiyear study-highlights of findings, applications to risk assessment, and future directions. Environ Health Perspect 124:1671-1682; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP233.

Using ToxCast to Explore Chemical Activities and Hazard Traits: A Case Study With Ortho-Phthalates.

US EPA's Toxicity Forecaster (ToxCastTM) is a tool with potential use in evaluating safer consumer products, conducting chemical alternatives analyses, prioritizing chemicals for exposure monitoring, and ultimately performing screening-level risk assessments. As a case study exploring a potential use of ToxCast, we evaluated ToxCast results for ortho-phthalates focused on the well-established toxicological endpoints of some members of this class. We compared molecular perturbations measured in ToxCast assays with the known apical toxicity endpoints of o-phthalates reported in the open literature to broadly reflect on the predictive capability of the high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. We grouped the ToxCast assays into defined sets to examine o-phthalate activity and potency. This study revealed several links between key molecular events assayed in vitro and chemical-specific hazard traits. In general, parent o-phthalates are more active than their monoester metabolites. The medium-chain length o-phthalate group is also more active than other o-phthalate groups, as supported by Toxicological Priority Index ranking and statistical methods. Some HTS assay results correlated with in vivo findings, but others did not. For example, there was a notable lack of assay activity to explain the known male reproductive toxicity of these compounds. Ultimately, HTS data resources such as ToxCast may inform us of sensitive upstream toxicity endpoints and may assist in the rapid identification of environmental chemical hazards for screening and prioritization. However, this case study shows that the absence of positive results in ToxCast in vitro assays cannot be interpreted as absence of related in vivo toxicity, and limited biological coverage by the assays remains a concern.