Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. FINDINGS: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. INTERPRETATION: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. METHODS: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects. FINDINGS: Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions. INTERPRETATION: Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe.

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study.

BACKGROUND: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. METHODS: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. CONCLUSIONS: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations.

BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25°â€ˆ× 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 µg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

On the importance of primary and community healthcare in relation to global health and environmental threats: lessons from the COVID-19 crisis.

In the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that primary healthcare systems play a critical role in clinical care, such as patient screening, triage, physical and psychological support and also in promoting good community advice and awareness in coordination with secondary healthcare and preventive care. Because of the role of social and environmental factors in COVID-19 transmission and burden of disease, it is essential to ensure that there is adequate coordination of population-based health services and public health interventions. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the primary and community healthcare (P&CHC) system's weaknesses worldwide. In many instances, P&CHC played only a minor role, the emphasis being on hospital and intensive care beds. This was compounded by political failures, in supporting local community resilience. Placing community building, social cohesion and resilience at the forefront of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis can help align solutions that provide a vision of 'planetary health'. This can be achieved by involving local well-being and participation in the face of any pervasive health and environmental crisis, including other epidemics and large-scale ecological crises. This paper proposes that P&CHC should take on two critical roles: first, to support local problem-solving efforts and to serve as a partner in innovative approaches to safeguarding community well-being; and second, to understand the local environment and health risks in the context of the global health perspective. We see this as an opportunity of immediate value and broad consequence beyond the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Human Health and Ocean Pollution.

Background: Pollution - unwanted waste released to air, water, and land by human activity - is the largest environmental cause of disease in the world today. It is responsible for an estimated nine million premature deaths per year, enormous economic losses, erosion of human capital, and degradation of ecosystems. Ocean pollution is an important, but insufficiently recognized and inadequately controlled component of global pollution. It poses serious threats to human health and well-being. The nature and magnitude of these impacts are only beginning to be understood. Goals: (1) Broadly examine the known and potential impacts of ocean pollution on human health. (2) Inform policy makers, government leaders, international organizations, civil society, and the global public of these threats. (3) Propose priorities for interventions to control and prevent pollution of the seas and safeguard human health. Methods: Topic-focused reviews that examine the effects of ocean pollution on human health, identify gaps in knowledge, project future trends, and offer evidence-based guidance for effective intervention. Environmental Findings: Pollution of the oceans is widespread, worsening, and in most countries poorly controlled. It is a complex mixture of toxic metals, plastics, manufactured chemicals, petroleum, urban and industrial wastes, pesticides, fertilizers, pharmaceutical chemicals, agricultural runoff, and sewage. More than 80% arises from land-based sources. It reaches the oceans through rivers, runoff, atmospheric deposition and direct discharges. It is often heaviest near the coasts and most highly concentrated along the coasts of low- and middle-income countries. Plastic is a rapidly increasing and highly visible component of ocean pollution, and an estimated 10 million metric tons of plastic waste enter the seas each year. Mercury is the metal pollutant of greatest concern in the oceans; it is released from two main sources - coal combustion and small-scale gold mining. Global spread of industrialized agriculture with increasing use of chemical fertilizer leads to extension of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) to previously unaffected regions. Chemical pollutants are ubiquitous and contaminate seas and marine organisms from the high Arctic to the abyssal depths. Ecosystem Findings: Ocean pollution has multiple negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and these impacts are exacerbated by global climate change. Petroleum-based pollutants reduce photosynthesis in marine microorganisms that generate oxygen. Increasing absorption of carbon dioxide into the seas causes ocean acidification, which destroys coral reefs, impairs shellfish development, dissolves calcium-containing microorganisms at the base of the marine food web, and increases the toxicity of some pollutants. Plastic pollution threatens marine mammals, fish, and seabirds and accumulates in large mid-ocean gyres. It breaks down into microplastic and nanoplastic particles containing multiple manufactured chemicals that can enter the tissues of marine organisms, including species consumed by humans. Industrial releases, runoff, and sewage increase frequency and severity of HABs, bacterial pollution, and anti-microbial resistance. Pollution and sea surface warming are triggering poleward migration of dangerous pathogens such as the Vibrio species. Industrial discharges, pharmaceutical wastes, pesticides, and sewage contribute to global declines in fish stocks. Human Health Findings: Methylmercury and PCBs are the ocean pollutants whose human health effects are best understood. Exposures of infants in utero to these pollutants through maternal consumption of contaminated seafood can damage developing brains, reduce IQ and increase children's risks for autism, ADHD and learning disorders. Adult exposures to methylmercury increase risks for cardiovascular disease and dementia. Manufactured chemicals - phthalates, bisphenol A, flame retardants, and perfluorinated chemicals, many of them released into the seas from plastic waste - can disrupt endocrine signaling, reduce male fertility, damage the nervous system, and increase risk of cancer. HABs produce potent toxins that accumulate in fish and shellfish. When ingested, these toxins can cause severe neurological impairment and rapid death. HAB toxins can also become airborne and cause respiratory disease. Pathogenic marine bacteria cause gastrointestinal diseases and deep wound infections. With climate change and increasing pollution, risk is high that Vibrio infections, including cholera, will increase in frequency and extend to new areas. All of the health impacts of ocean pollution fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations in the Global South - environmental injustice on a planetary scale. Conclusions: Ocean pollution is a global problem. It arises from multiple sources and crosses national boundaries. It is the consequence of reckless, shortsighted, and unsustainable exploitation of the earth's resources. It endangers marine ecosystems. It impedes the production of atmospheric oxygen. Its threats to human health are great and growing, but still incompletely understood. Its economic costs are only beginning to be counted.Ocean pollution can be prevented. Like all forms of pollution, ocean pollution can be controlled by deploying data-driven strategies based on law, policy, technology, and enforcement that target priority pollution sources. Many countries have used these tools to control air and water pollution and are now applying them to ocean pollution. Successes achieved to date demonstrate that broader control is feasible. Heavily polluted harbors have been cleaned, estuaries rejuvenated, and coral reefs restored.Prevention of ocean pollution creates many benefits. It boosts economies, increases tourism, helps restore fisheries, and improves human health and well-being. It advances the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). These benefits will last for centuries. Recommendations: World leaders who recognize the gravity of ocean pollution, acknowledge its growing dangers, engage civil society and the global public, and take bold, evidence-based action to stop pollution at source will be critical to preventing ocean pollution and safeguarding human health.Prevention of pollution from land-based sources is key. Eliminating coal combustion and banning all uses of mercury will reduce mercury pollution. Bans on single-use plastic and better management of plastic waste reduce plastic pollution. Bans on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have reduced pollution by PCBs and DDT. Control of industrial discharges, treatment of sewage, and reduced applications of fertilizers have mitigated coastal pollution and are reducing frequency of HABs. National, regional and international marine pollution control programs that are adequately funded and backed by strong enforcement have been shown to be effective. Robust monitoring is essential to track progress.Further interventions that hold great promise include wide-scale transition to renewable fuels; transition to a circular economy that creates little waste and focuses on equity rather than on endless growth; embracing the principles of green chemistry; and building scientific capacity in all countries.Designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) will safeguard critical ecosystems, protect vulnerable fish stocks, and enhance human health and well-being. Creation of MPAs is an important manifestation of national and international commitment to protecting the health of the seas.

Erratum: Paolo Lauriola et al., Advancing Global Health through Environmental and Public Health Tracking, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 1976.

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Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. METHODS: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. FINDINGS: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health. FUNDING: Korea Ministry of Environment.

A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model.

Both climate change and migration present key concerns for global health progress. Despite this, a transparent method for identifying and understanding the relationship between climate change, migration and other contextual factors remains a knowledge gap. Existing conceptual models are useful in understanding the complexities of climate migration, but provide varying degrees of applicability to quantitative studies, resulting in non-homogenous transferability of knowledge in this important area. This paper attempts to provide a critical review of climate migration literature, as well as presenting a new conceptual model for the identification of the drivers of migration in the context of climate change. It focuses on the interactions and the dynamics of drivers over time, space and society. Through systematic, pan-disciplinary and homogenous application of theory to different geographical contexts, we aim to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on migration. A brief case study of Malawi is provided to demonstrate how this global conceptual model can be applied into local contextual scenarios. In doing so, we hope to provide insights that help in the more homogenous applications of conceptual frameworks for this area and more generally.

Advancing Global Health through Environmental and Public Health Tracking.

Global environmental change has degraded ecosystems. Challenges such as climate change, resource depletion (with its huge implications for human health and wellbeing), and persistent social inequalities in health have been identified as global public health issues with implications for both communicable and noncommunicable diseases. This contributes to pressure on healthcare systems, as well as societal systems that affect health. A novel strategy to tackle these multiple, interacting and interdependent drivers of change is required to protect the population's health. Public health professionals have found that building strong, enduring interdisciplinary partnerships across disciplines can address environment and health complexities, and that developing Environmental and Public Health Tracking (EPHT) systems has been an effective tool. EPHT aims to merge, integrate, analyse and interpret environmental hazards, exposure and health data. In this article, we explain that public health decision-makers can use EPHT insights to drive public health actions, reduce exposure and prevent the occurrence of disease more precisely in efficient and cost-effective ways. An international network exists for practitioners and researchers to monitor and use environmental health intelligence, and to support countries and local areas toward sustainable and healthy development. A global network of EPHT programs and professionals has the potential to advance global health by implementing and sharing experience, to magnify the impact of local efforts and to pursue data knowledge improvement strategies, aiming to recognise and support best practices. EPHT can help increase the understanding of environmental public health and global health, improve comparability of risks between different areas of the world including Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), enable transparency and trust among citizens, institutions and the private sector, and inform preventive decision making consistent with sustainable and healthy development. This shows how EPHT advances global health efforts by sharing recent global EPHT activities and resources with those working in this field. Experiences from the US, Europe, Asia and Australasia are outlined for operating successful tracking systems to advance global health.

The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicity Study.

BACKGROUND: There is strong experimental evidence that physiologic stress from high temperatures is greater if humidity is higher. However, heat indices developed to allow for this have not consistently predicted mortality better than dry-bulb temperature. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to clarify the potential contribution of humidity an addition to temperature in predicting daily mortality in summer by using a large multicountry dataset. METHODS: In 445 cities in 24 countries, we fit a time-series regression model for summer mortality with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for temperature (up to lag 3) and supplemented this with a range of terms for relative humidity (RH) and its interaction with temperature. City-specific associations were summarized using meta-analytic techniques. RESULTS: Adding a linear term for RH to the temperature term improved fit slightly, with an increase of 23% in RH (the 99th percentile anomaly) associated with a 1.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8, 1.3] decrease in mortality. Allowing curvature in the RH term or adding terms for interaction of RH with temperature did not improve the model fit. The humidity-related decreased risk was made up of a positive coefficient at lag 0 outweighed by negative coefficients at lags of 1-3 d. Key results were broadly robust to small model changes and replacing RH with absolute measures of humidity. Replacing temperature with apparent temperature, a metric combining humidity and temperature, reduced goodness of fit slightly. DISCUSSION: The absence of a positive association of humidity with mortality in summer in this large multinational study is counter to expectations from physiologic studies, though consistent with previous epidemiologic studies finding little evidence for improved prediction by heat indices. The result that there was a small negative average association of humidity with mortality should be interpreted cautiously; the lag structure has unclear interpretation and suggests the need for future work to clarify. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5430.

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability.

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

A scoping review of the epidemiological methods used to investigate the health effects of industrially contaminated sites.

BACKGROUND: this paper is based upon work from COST Action ICSHNet. Industrial contaminated sites (ICSs) are of high concern since industrial plants have produced widespread contamination potentially affecting the health of local population OBJECTIVES: to assess the types of epidemiological designs applied in studies of health effects related to ICSs according to time periods, type of ICS, and geography. METHODS: a literature search was conducted in Medline (OVID) through June 30th, 2018, using MeSH and customized terms, and no restrictions on publication year or language. We included all studies throughout the world where a potential contamination of industrial origin occurred, an epidemiological approach (including biomonitoring, HBM) was applied, and health outcomes or exposure biomarkers among residents were investigated. Data on publication year, geographical localization and ICS characterization, study design (systematic reviews, cohort, case-control, temporal changes, cross-sectional, ecological, descriptive - area-level, case-series, narrative reviews, and HBM), and health outcomes were extracted from the abstracts. To check the sensitivity of the main search strategy, a case-study on Italy was conducted applying an ad-hoc search. RESULTS: from a literature search capturing 5,485 studies, 655 studies on resident populations were identified. The review includes more than 376 different ICSs, 86% from Europe, North America, and Asia combined, mostly dealing with nuclear sites and mining industries, waste and petrochemical activities. Most of the studies were descriptive (32.5%), cross-sectional (16.3%), or narrative review (14.8%), while analytical studies - case-control and cohort studies (9.6% and 8.4%, respectively) - were rarer; HBM were only 6.9%. A total of 235 studies, conducted mostly in Asia (34.5%), Europe (25.5%), and North America (22.3%), included children. The most frequently studied outcome was cancer (33.7%), followed by respiratory diseases (11.4%), and reproductive health (11.4%). The ad-hoc strategy greatly increased the number of detected papers (+122%). CONCLUSIONS: future research should adopt the most valid and suitable study design, according to the area-specific social and environmental context, also in areas of the world which are less studied, but with very high environmental worries of the resident population suffering the industrial contamination. Involvement of local experts on ICSs and local inventories are recommended to improve the coverage of the present inventory.