Spatio-temporal estimates of HIV risk group proportions for adolescent girls and young women across 13 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026 identifies adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) as a priority population for HIV prevention, and recommends differentiating intervention portfolios geographically based on local HIV incidence and individual risk behaviours. We estimated prevalence of HIV risk behaviours and associated HIV incidence at health district level among AGYW living in 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed 46 geospatially-referenced national household surveys conducted between 1999-2018 across 13 high HIV burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Female survey respondents aged 15-29 years were classified into four risk groups (not sexually active, cohabiting, non-regular or multiple partner[s] and female sex workers [FSW]) based on reported sexual behaviour. We used a Bayesian spatio-temporal multinomial regression model to estimate the proportion of AGYW in each risk group stratified by district, year, and five-year age group. Using subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence produced by countries with support from UNAIDS, we estimated new HIV infections in each risk group by district and age group. We then assessed the efficiency of prioritising interventions according to risk group. Data consisted of 274,970 female survey respondents aged 15-29. Among women aged 20-29, cohabiting (63.1%) was more common in eastern Africa than non-regular or multiple partner(s) (21.3%), while in southern countries non-regular or multiple partner(s) (58.9%) were more common than cohabiting (23.4%). Risk group proportions varied substantially across age groups (65.9% of total variation explained), countries (20.9%), and between districts within each country (11.3%), but changed little over time (0.9%). Prioritisation based on behavioural risk, in combination with location- and age-based prioritisation, reduced the proportion of population required to be reached in order to find half of all expected new infections from 19.4% to 10.6%. FSW were 1.3% of the population but 10.6% of all expected new infections. Our risk group estimates provide data for HIV programmes to set targets and implement differentiated prevention strategies outlined in the Global AIDS Strategy. Successfully implementing this approach would result in more efficiently reaching substantially more of those at risk for infections.

Defining the Global Research and Programmatic Agenda and Priority Actions for Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Since 2007, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs have been associated with substantially reduced HIV incidence across 15 prioritized countries in Eastern and Southern Africa. Drawing on the programmatic experience of global VMMC leaders, this report reviews progress made in the first 15 years of the program, describes programmatic and research gaps, and presents considerations to maximize the impact of VMMC. RECENT FINDINGS: Overall, key programmatic and research gaps include a lack of robust male circumcision coverage estimates due to limitations to the data and a lack of standardized approaches across programs; challenges enhancing VMMC uptake include difficulties reaching populations at higher risk for HIV infection and men 30 years and older; limitations to program and procedural quality and safety including variations in approaches used by programs; and lastly, sustainability with limited evidence-based practices. Considerations to address these gaps include the need for global guidance on estimating coverage, conducting additional research on specific sub-populations to improve VMMC uptake, implementation of responsive and comprehensive approaches to adverse event surveillance, and diversifying financing streams to progress towards sustainability. This report's findings may help establish a global VMMC research and programmatic agenda to inform policy, research, and capacity-building activities at the national and global levels.

Population sizes, HIV prevalence, and HIV prevention among men who paid for sex in sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2020): A meta-analysis of 87 population-based surveys.

BACKGROUND: Key populations, including sex workers, are at high risk of HIV acquisition and transmission. Men who pay for sex can contribute to HIV transmission through sexual relationships with both sex workers and their other partners. To characterize the population of men who pay for sex in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), we analyzed population size, HIV prevalence, and use of HIV prevention and treatment. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed random-effects meta-analyses of population-based surveys conducted in SSA from 2000 to 2020 with information on paid sex by men. We extracted population size, lifetime number of sexual partners, condom use, HIV prevalence, HIV testing, antiretroviral (ARV) use, and viral load suppression (VLS) among sexually active men. We pooled by regions and time periods, and assessed time trends using meta-regressions. We included 87 surveys, totaling over 368,000 male respondents (15-54 years old), from 35 countries representing 95% of men in SSA. Eight percent (95% CI 6%-10%; number of surveys [Ns] = 87) of sexually active men reported ever paying for sex. Condom use at last paid sex increased over time and was 68% (95% CI 64%-71%; Ns = 61) in surveys conducted from 2010 onwards. Men who paid for sex had higher HIV prevalence (prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.50; 95% CI 1.31-1.72; Ns = 52) and were more likely to have ever tested for HIV (PR = 1.14; 95% CI 1.06-1.24; Ns = 81) than men who had not paid for sex. Men living with HIV who paid for sex had similar levels of lifetime HIV testing (PR = 0.96; 95% CI 0.88-1.05; Ns = 18), ARV use (PR = 1.01; 95% CI 0.86-1.18; Ns = 8), and VLS (PR = 1.00; 95% CI 0.86-1.17; Ns = 9) as those living with HIV who did not pay for sex. Study limitations include a reliance on self-report of sensitive behaviors and the small number of surveys with information on ARV use and VLS. CONCLUSIONS: Paying for sex is prevalent, and men who ever paid for sex were 50% more likely to be living with HIV compared to other men in these 35 countries. Further prevention efforts are needed for this vulnerable population, including improved access to HIV testing and condom use initiatives. Men who pay for sex should be recognized as a priority population for HIV prevention.

Estimating male circumcision coverage in 15 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Given the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in reducing HIV incidence, access to and use of quality data for programme planning and management are essential. Unfortunately, such data are currently not standardized for reliable and consistent programme use in priority countries. To redress this, the UNAIDS Reference Group (RG) on Estimates, Modelling, and Projection worked with partner Avenir Health to use the Decision Makers Program Planning Toolkit (DMPPT) 2 Online to provide estimates of VMMC coverage and to support countries to set age- and geographic-specific targets. This article describes the methods and tools used for assembling, reviewing and validating VMMC programme data as part of the 2021 Estimates process. DISCUSSION: The approach outlined for integrating VMMC data using the DMPPT2 Online required significant country engagement as well as upgrades to the DMPPT2 Online. The process brought together local-level VMMC stakeholders, for example Ministries of Health, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, the World Health Organization (WHO), VMMC implementers and so on, to review, amend and agree on historical and more recent VMMC data. The DMPPT2 Online was upgraded to align with the Spectrum and Naomi models used in the Annual HIV Estimates process. In addition, new and revised inputs were incorporated to enhance accuracy of modelled outputs. The process was successful in mobilizing stakeholders behind efforts to integrate VMMC into the annual HIV Estimates process and generating comprehensive, country-owned and validated VMMC data that will enhance programme monitoring and planning. CONCLUSIONS: VMMC programme data from most of the priority countries were successfully reviewed, updated, validated and incorporated into the annual HIV Estimates process in 2020. It is important to ensure that these data continue to be used for programme planning and management. Current and future data issues will need to be addressed, and countries will need ongoing support to do so. The integration of the DMPPT2 Online into the annual HIV Estimates process is a positive step forward in terms of streamlining country-owned planning and analytical practices for the HIV response.

Strengthening HIV surveillance in the antiretroviral therapy era: rationale and design of a longitudinal study to monitor HIV prevalence and incidence in the uMgungundlovu District, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has over 6,000,000 HIV infected individuals and the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) is the most severely affected. As public health initiatives to better control the HIV epidemic are implemented, timely, detailed and robust surveillance data are needed to monitor, evaluate and inform the programmatic interventions and policies over time. We describe the rationale and design of the HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System (HIPSS) to monitor HIV prevalence and incidence. METHODS/DESIGN: The household-based survey will include a sample of men and women from two sub-districts of the uMgungundlovu municipality (Vulindlela and the Greater Edendale) of KZN, South Africa. The study is designed as two sequential cross-sectional surveys of 10,000 randomly selected individuals aged 15-49 years to be conducted one year apart. From the cross sectional surveys, two sequential cohorts of HIV negative individuals aged 15-35 years will be followed-up one year later to measure the primary outcome of HIV incidence. Secondary outcomes include the laboratory measurements for pulmonary tuberculosis, sexually transmitted infections and evaluating tests for estimating population-level HIV incidence. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and CD4 cell counts in HIV positive individuals will assess the effectiveness of the HIV treatment cascade. Household and individual-level socio-demographic characteristics, exposure to HIV programmatic interventions and risk behaviours will be assessed as predictors of HIV incidence. The incidence rate ratio of the two cohorts will be calculated to quantify the change in HIV incidence between consecutive samples. In anticipation of better availability of population-level HIV prevention and treatment programmes leading to decreases in HIV incidence, the sample size provides 84% power to detect a reduction of 30% in the HIV incidence rate between surveys. DISCUSSION: The results from HIPSS will provide critical data regarding HIV prevalence and incidence in this community and will establish whether HIV prevention and treatment efforts in a "real world", non-trial setting have an impact on HIV incidence at a population level. Importantly, the study design and methods will inform future methods for HIV surveillance.

Striking lack of T cell immunodominance in both a multiclade and monoclade HIV-1 epidemic: implications for vaccine development.

Understanding the impact of HIV diversity on immunological responses to candidate immunogens is critical for HIV vaccine development. We investigated the reactivity and immunodominance patterns of HIV-1 consensus group M Gag and Nef in (i) Cameroon, where individuals infected with the predominant CRF02_AG clade were compared with those infected with diverse non-CRF02_AG clades; and (ii) in a multiclade epidemic, namely Cameroon, compared with a monoclade C epidemic, South Africa. We analyzed 57 HIV-infected individuals from Cameroon and 44 HIV-infected individuals from South Africa for differences in detecting HIV-1 consensus M Gag and Nef T cell responses using the IFN-γ ELISpot assay. We found no difference in the predicted epitope coverage between CRF02_AG and non-CRF02_AG viruses for either Gag or Nef. There were no differences in the magnitude and breadth of responses for CRF02_AG and non-CRF02_AG-infected individuals. In contrast, the specificity of epitope targeting was markedly different between the two groups, with fewer than one third (11/38) of peptides commonly recognized in Gag. Furthermore, only one peptide was commonly recognized by at least three individuals from both AG and non-AG groups, indicating poor immunodominance. For Nef, more than half of all targeted peptides (14/27) were recognized by both groups, and four peptides were commonly targeted by at least three individuals. Three times more peptides were exclusively targeted in the diverse non-CRF02_AG group compared to the CRF02_AG group (10 vs. 3). Of note, similar results were obtained when South Africa, a monoclade C epidemic, and Cameroon, a multiclade epidemic, were compared. The central nature of HIV-1 consensus M sequences resulted in their broad recognition, but failed to identify highly immunodominant peptides between homogeneous and diverse HIV epidemics.

Characterization of HIV-1 gag and nef in Cameroon: further evidence of extreme diversity at the origin of the HIV-1 group M epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Cameroon, in west central Africa, has an extraordinary degree of HIV diversity, presenting a major challenge for the development of an effective HIV vaccine. Given the continuing need to closely monitor the emergence of new HIV variants in the country, we analyzed HIV-1 genetic diversity in 59 plasma samples from HIV-infected Cameroonian blood donors. Full length HIV gag and nef sequences were generated and phylogenetic analyses were performed. FINDINGS: All gag and nef sequences clustered within HIV-1M. Circulating recombinant form CRF02_AG predominated, accounting for 50% of the studied infections, followed by clade G (11%), clade D and CRF37_cpx (4% each), and clades A, F, CRF01_AE and CRF36_cpx (2% each). In addition, 22% of the studied viruses apparently had nef and gag genes from viruses belonging to different clades, with the majority (8/10) having either a nef or gag gene derived from CRF02_AG. Interestingly, five gag sequences (10%) and three (5%) nef sequences were neither obviously recombinant nor easily classifiable into any of the known HIV-1M clades. CONCLUSION: This suggests the widespread existence of highly divergent HIV lineages in Cameroon. While the genetic complexity of the Cameroonian HIV-1 epidemic has potentially serious implications for the design of biomedical interventions, detailed analyses of divergent Cameroonian HIV-1M lineages could be crucial for dissecting the earliest evolutionary steps in the emergence of HIV-1M.

Intra- and inter-clade cross-reactivity by HIV-1 Gag specific T-cells reveals exclusive and commonly targeted regions: implications for current vaccine trials.

The genetic diversity of HIV-1 across the globe is a major challenge for developing an HIV vaccine. To facilitate immunogen design, it is important to characterize clusters of commonly targeted T-cell epitopes across different HIV clades. To address this, we examined 39 HIV-1 clade C infected individuals for IFN-γ Gag-specific T-cell responses using five sets of overlapping peptides, two sets matching clade C vaccine candidates derived from strains from South Africa and China, and three peptide sets corresponding to consensus clades A, B, and D sequences. The magnitude and breadth of T-cell responses against the two clade C peptide sets did not differ, however clade C peptides were preferentially recognized compared to the other peptide sets. A total of 84 peptides were recognized, of which 19 were exclusively from clade C, 8 exclusively from clade B, one peptide each from A and D and 17 were commonly recognized by clade A, B, C and D. The entropy of the exclusively recognized peptides was significantly higher than that of commonly recognized peptides (p = 0.0128) and the median peptide processing scores were significantly higher for the peptide variants recognized versus those not recognized (p = 0.0001). Consistent with these results, the predicted Major Histocompatibility Complex Class I IC(50) values were significantly lower for the recognized peptide variants compared to those not recognized in the ELISPOT assay (p<0.0001), suggesting that peptide variation between clades, resulting in lack of cross-clade recognition, has been shaped by host immune selection pressure. Overall, our study shows that clade C infected individuals recognize clade C peptides with greater frequency and higher magnitude than other clades, and that a selection of highly conserved epitope regions within Gag are commonly recognized and give rise to cross-clade reactivities.