An imaging-based machine learning model outperforms clinical risk scores for prognosis of cirrhotic variceal bleeding.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a machine learning model based on contrast-enhanced CT to predict the risk of occurrence of the composite clinical endpoint (hospital-based intervention or death) in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled 330 cirrhotic patients with AVB between January 2017 and December 2020 from three clinical centers. Contrast-enhanced CT and clinical data were collected. Centers A and B were divided 7:3 into a training set and an internal test set, and center C served as a separate external test set. A well-trained deep learning model was applied to segment the liver and spleen. Then, we extracted 106 original features of the liver and spleen separately based on the Image Biomarker Standardization Initiative (IBSI). We constructed the Liver-Spleen (LS) model based on the selected radiomics features. The performance of LS model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics and calibration curves. The clinical utility of models was analyzed using decision curve analyses (DCA). RESULTS: The LS model demonstrated the best diagnostic performance in predicting the composite clinical endpoint of AVB in patients with cirrhosis, with an AUC of 0.782 (95% CI 0.650-0.882) and 0.789 (95% CI 0.674-0.878) in the internal test and external test groups, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA indicated the LS model had better performance than traditional clinical scores. CONCLUSION: A novel machine learning model outperforms previously known clinical risk scores in assessing the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with AVB CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The Liver-Spleen model based on contrast-enhanced CT has proven to be a promising tool to predict the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding, which can facilitate decision-making and personalized therapy in clinical practice. KEY POINTS: • The Liver-Spleen machine learning model (LS model) showed good performance in assessing the clinical composite endpoint of cirrhotic patients with AVB (AUC ≥ 0.782, sensitivity ≥ 80%). • The LS model outperformed the clinical scores (AUC ≤ 0.730, sensitivity ≤ 70%) in both internal and external test cohorts.

Predicting Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using CT-based Radiomics Model.

Background Prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) may help determine treatment strategies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Purpose To develop a radiomics approach for predicting MVI status based on preoperative multiphase CT images and to identify MVI-associated differentially expressed genes. Materials and Methods Patients with pathologically proven HCC from May 2012 to September 2020 were retrospectively included from four medical centers. Radiomics features were extracted from tumors and peritumor regions on preoperative registration or subtraction CT images. In the training set, these features were used to build five radiomics models via logistic regression after feature reduction. The models were tested using internal and external test sets against a pathologic reference standard to calculate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The optimal AUC radiomics model and clinical-radiologic characteristics were combined to build the hybrid model. The log-rank test was used in the outcome cohort (Kunming center) to analyze early recurrence-free survival and overall survival based on high versus low model-derived score. RNA sequencing data from The Cancer Image Archive were used for gene expression analysis. Results A total of 773 patients (median age, 59 years; IQR, 49-64 years; 633 men) were divided into the training set (n = 334), internal test set (n = 142), external test set (n = 141), outcome cohort (n = 121), and RNA sequencing analysis set (n = 35). The AUCs from the radiomics and hybrid models, respectively, were 0.76 and 0.86 for the internal test set and 0.72 and 0.84 for the external test set. Early recurrence-free survival (P < .01) and overall survival (P < .007) can be categorized using the hybrid model. Differentially expressed genes in patients with findings positive for MVI were involved in glucose metabolism. Conclusion The hybrid model showed the best performance in prediction of MVI. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Summers in this issue.

Oligorecurrence Non-small Cell Lung Cancer After Failure of First-Line Chemotherapy: Computed Tomography-Guided 125I Seed Implantation vs. Second-Line Chemotherapy.

Purpose: To compare the efficacy and safety of computed tomography (CT)-guided 125I seed implantation with second-line chemotherapy in treatment of oligorecurrence non-small cell lung cancer after failure of first-line chemotherapy. Methods: Data of oligorecurrence non-small cell lung cancer patients after failure of first-line chemotherapy at two institutions were retrospectively reviewed from January 2013 to July 2018. A total of 53 patients who received the treatment of 125I seed implantation or second-line chemotherapy were eligible for this study. In group A, 25 patients, 84 lesions, received CT-guided permanent 125I seed implantation, whereas in group B, 28 patients, 96 lesions, received second-line chemotherapy. The outcomes were measured in terms of disease control rate, overall survival, quality of life, and complications. Results: The median follow-up period was 13 months (range, 5-42 months). Disease control rate in group A was higher than that in group B (70.8 vs. 42.3%, P = 0.042) at 6 months after treatment. The median overall survival was 12.8 months (95% confidence interval, 10.5-15.1 months) in group A and 15.2 months (95% confidence interval, 12.2-18.2 months) in group B, with no significant difference (P = 0.847). Since the fourth month, the number of patients in group A with a non-decreasing Karnofsky Performance Scale score was more than that in group B (P < 0.05). The incidence of grade 3 or higher complications especially hematologic toxicity in group A was significantly lower than that in group B (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Radioactive 125I seed implantation is safe and feasible in selected non-small cell lung cancer patients with oligorecurrence after failure of first-line chemotherapy and seems to provide a better long-term quality of life in these patients compared with second-line chemotherapy.