A framework for the design, implementation, and evaluation of output-based surveillance systems against zoonotic threats.

Output-based standards set a prescribed target to be achieved by a surveillance system, but they leave the selection of surveillance parameters, such as test type and population to be sampled, to the responsible party in the surveillance area. This allows proportionate legislative surveillance specifications to be imposed over a range of unique geographies. This flexibility makes output-based standards useful in the context of zoonotic threat surveillance, particularly where animal pathogens act as risk indicators for human health or where multiple surveillance streams cover human, animal, and food safety sectors. Yet, these systems are also heavily reliant on the appropriate choice of surveillance options to fit the disease context and the constraints of the organization implementing the surveillance system. Here we describe a framework to assist with designing, implementing, and evaluating output-based surveillance systems showing the effectiveness of a diverse range of activities through a case study example. Despite not all activities being relevant to practitioners in every context, this framework aims to provide a useful toolbox to encourage holistic and stakeholder-focused approaches to the establishment and maintenance of productive output-based surveillance systems.

African Swine Fever (ASF) Trend Analysis in Wild Boar in Poland (2014-2020).

African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal hemorrhagic disease of Suidae, i.e., domestic pigs and wild boars. The disease was introduced to Poland in 2014 and is now present in the wild boar population. Appropriate ASF prevention requires further research for answers to fundamental questions about the importance of vectors in virus transmission, the impact of environmental factors on the presence of ASFV in wild boar habitats, and the role of survivors as potential virus carriers and their part in the potential endemicity of ASF. In order to analyze the changes in the molecular and serological prevalence of ASFV in wild boar population in Poland, real-time PCR and ELISA/IPT tests were conducted. In the analyzed period (2014-2020), most of the ASF-positive wild boars were molecular/virus-positive, however, over the years the percentage and the number of seropositive animals has increased. At the beginning of the epidemic, the disease was limited to a small area of the country. Since then, it has spread to new provinces of Poland. From the beginning and until today, most notifications of ASF-positive wild boars were for carcasses (passive surveillance), however, the number of serologically positive animals is still increasing. Despite the fact that notifications of ASF outbreaks are still being received near the eastern border of Poland, the old ASF area seems to be limited mainly to ASF serologically positive animals, which may indicate the beginning of ASF endemicity in Poland.

Dynamics of the African Swine Fever Spread in Poland.

Introduction: African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease's progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data. Material and Methods: The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014-2021. Results: The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km2 every year since 2017) and marks trends. The strong method-independent correlation between the year and the surface area affected by African swine fever indicated a near-linear generalised trend. Conclusion: Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free.

Trichinella Outbreaks on Pig Farms in Poland in 2012-2020.

Trichinella nematodes continue to circulate in various hosts both in the domestic and sylvatic cycles. In the majority of countries in Europe, wild boars have been noticed as a primary source of Trichinella spp. infections in humans. However, in some regions, the meat of pigs containing Trichinella spp. larvae can still be a cause of trichinellosis. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to determine and present actual data on the occurrence of Trichinella spp. on pig farms (Sus scrofa f. domestica) in Poland. In this study, over 194 million pigs, slaughtered for commercial and personal purposes between 2012 and 2020, were tested with a digestion method according to the official rules for Trichinella control. Positive results were noticed in 172 pigs which gives an overall prevalence of 0.000088%. On seven farms, rats (Rattus norvegicus) infected with Trichinella spp. were also discovered. The species identification showed pigs were infected with Trichinella spiralis on 26 farms, and on four farms pigs with Trichinella britovi infections were found. Therefore, it is important to constantly monitor pigs for the presence of these parasites, especially in view of the growing interest in organic meat originated from ecological farms.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar (Poland 2020): Passive and Active Surveillance Analysis and Further Perspectives.

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal hemorrhagic disease of wild boar and domestic pigs which has been present in Poland since 2014. By 2020, the ASF virus (ASFV) spread across Central, Eastern and Western Europe (including Germany), and Asian countries (including China, Vietnam, and South Korea). The national ASF eradication and prevention program includes continuous passive (wild boar found dead and road-killed wild boar) and active (hunted wild boar) surveillance. The main goal of this study was to analyze the dynamic of the spread of ASF in the wild boar population across the territory of Poland in 2020. In that year in Poland, in total 6191 ASF-positive wild boar were declared. Most of them were confirmed in a group of animals found dead. The conducted statistical analysis indicates that the highest chance of obtaining an ASF-positive result in wild boar was during the winter months, from January to March, and in December 2020. Despite the biosecurity measures implemented by holdings of domestic pigs, the disease also occurred in 109 pig farms. The role of ASF surveillance in the wild boar population is crucial to apply more effective and tailored measures of disease control and eradication. The most essential measures to maintain sustainable production of domestic pigs in Poland include effective management of the wild boar population, along with strict implementation of biosecurity measures by domestic pig producers.

Intraspecific genetic variation in Trichinella spiralis and Trichinella britovi populations circulating in different geographical regions of Poland.

Trichinella spiralis and Trichinella britovi are species of nematodes which are responsible for the majority of Trichinella infections in the world and the most prevalent in Poland. The most abundant species - T. spiralis, is considered to be more genetically homogeneous in Europe than T. britovi. The aim of the present study was to determine the genetic variability in T. spiralis and T. britovi populations based on nuclear 5S rDNA intergenic spacer region (5S rDNA) and cytochrome c oxidase 1 (COX1) gene sequences. For the study, 55 isolates of T. spiralis and 50 isolates of T. britovi isolated from wild boars, pigs, brown rat and a red fox were analyzed. Based on the analysis of both genes, the genetic variability within populations of T. spiralis and T. britovi differed. In T. spiralis, two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were observed in the 612 bp 5S rDNA gene fragment, and one SNP was detected in the 700 bp COX1 gene fragment. In T. britovi, 17 single nucleotide variations (SNVs) were detected in the 5S rDNA gene fragment (among them 16 SNPs), while COX1 sequence analysis revealed the occurrence of 20 SNVs between the sequences tested (among them 19 SNPs). For the majority of T. spiralis isolates the investigated larvae presented uniform haplotypes. In contrast, most of the isolates of T. britovi consisted of larvae of different haplotypes. Geographical analysis showed that each region exhibited different haplotype composition and richness. Warminsko-Mazurskie and Zachodniopomorskie regions were the richest in haplotypes (15 and 16 haplotypes, respectively). We used heatmaps showing a characteristic pattern for each region graphically. This may allow to differentiate regions based on the occurrence of particular haplotypes. Furthermore, a PCA analysis on the SNP level yielded biplots that show that certain haplotypes/genotypes are associated with (clusters of) regions.

Assessment of the Potential Distance of Dispersal of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus by Wild Mallards.

This work presents the results of studies aimed at assessing the median and maximum distances covered by wild mallards (Anas platyrhynchos; n = 38), hypothetically infected with the high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) during spring migrations, using GPS-GSM tracking and published data on the susceptibility to HPAIV infection and duration of shedding. The model was based on the assumptions that the birds shed virus in the absence of clinical signs during infectious periods (IP) that were assumed to last 1 day (IP1), 4 days (IP4), and 8 days (IP8) and that each day of migration is a hypothetical day of the onset of IP. Using the haversine formula over a sliding timeframe corresponding to each IP, distances were estimated for each duck that undertook migration and then the maximum distance (Dmax) was selected. Ten mallards undertook spring migrations but, due to the loss of signal in the GPS-GSM devices, only three ducks were observed during autumn migrations. The following ranges of Dmax values were calculated for spring migrations: 124-382 km for IP1 (median 210 km), 208-632 km for IP4 (median 342 km), and 213-687 km for IP8 (median 370 km). The present study provides information that can be used as a data source to perform risk assessment related to the contribution of wild mallards in the dispersal of HPAIV over considerable distances.