An integrated socio-economic agent-based modeling framework towards assessing farmers' decision making under water scarcity and varying utility functions.

A spatio-temporal Agent Based Modeling (ABM) framework is developed to probabilistically predict farmers' decisions concerning their future farming practices when faced with potential water scarcity induced by future climate change. The proposed framework forecasts farmers' behavior assuming varying utility functions. The functionality of the proposed ABM is illustrated in an agriculturally dominated plain along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. The model results indicated that modelling farmers as agents, who were solely interested in optimizing their agro-business budget, was only able to reproduce 35% of the answers provided by the farmers through a administered field questionnaire. Model simulations highlighted the importance of representing the farmers' combined socio-economic attributes when assessing their future decisions on land tenure. This approach accounts for social factors, such as the farmers' attitudes, subjective norms, social influence, memories of previous civil unrest and farming traditions, in addition to their economic utility to model farmer decision making. Under this scenario, correspondence between model simulations and farmers' answers reached 95%. Additionally, the model results show that when faced with the negative impacts of climate change, the majority of farmers seek adaptive measures, such as changing their crops and/or seeking new water sources, only when future water shortages were predicted to be low to moderate. Most opt to cease farming and allow their lands to urbanize or go fallow, when future water shortages were predicted to be high. Meanwhile, incorporating and modeling the social influence structures within the ABM diminished farmers' willingness to adapt and doubled their propensity to sell or quit their land. The proposed framework is able to account for a variety of utility functions and to successfully capture the actions and interactions between farmers and their environment; thus, it represents an innovative modeling approach for assessing farmers' behavior and decision-making in the face of future climate change. The nonspecific structure of the framework allows its application at any agriculturally dominated setting facing future water shortages promulgated by a changing climate.

Microbiological and chemical properties of litter from different chicken types and production systems.

Chicken litter is produced in large quantities from all types of poultry raising activities. It is primarily used for land application, thus it is essential to analyze its properties before it is released to the environment. The objective of this study is to compare the microbiological and chemical properties of litter generated from layer and broiler chickens reared under intensive and free-range production systems. The microbiological analysis consisted of the enumeration of total bacteria, total coliforms, Staphylococcus species, Salmonella species and Clostridium perfringens. Chicken litter from layers reared under intensive and free range systems showed lower mean total bacterial count than the litter collected from chicken broilers reared under either of the two systems (P=0.0291). The litter from intensive layers had the lowest mean total coliform counts (P=0.0222) while the lowest Staphylococcus species count was observed in the litter from free-range layers (P=0.0077). The C. perfringens count was the lowest in chicken litter from intensively raised broilers and layers (P=0.0001). The chemical properties of litter from the different chicken types and production systems were compared based on determination of pH, electrical conductivity, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, cadmium and zinc. Litter from free-range broilers showed the highest pH value (P=0.0005); however, the electrical conductivity was higher in the litter from both intensive and free-range layers compared to the litter from both broiler production systems (P=0.0117). Chicken litter from intensive systems had higher nitrogen content than litter from free-range systems (P=0.0000). The total phosphorus was the lowest in free-range broiler litter (P=0.0001), while the total potassium was the lowest in litter from intensively managed broilers (P=0.0000). Zinc appeared higher in litter from layers compared to that from broilers (P=0.0101). The cadmium content was higher in the litter from free-range broilers and layers compared to that in the litter from intensively managed systems (P=0.0439). Staphylococcus species in the litter as well as cadmium concentrations seem to be the most critical parameters presenting risks on the environment and on human health. Based on the lowest coliform counts (an indication of water pollution), the high nutrient levels and the low cadmium values, litter from intensively managed layers appears as the most suitable for application on agricultural soils.