Risk of spread of the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) in Ghana.

The impact of invasive species on biodiversity, food security and economy is increasingly noticeable in various regions of the globe as a consequence of climate change. Yet, there is limited research on how climate change affects the distribution of the invasive Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera:Liviidae) in Ghana. Using maxnet package to fit the Maxent model in R software, we answered the following questions; (i) what are the main drivers for D. citri distribution, (ii) what are the D. citri-specific habitat requirements and (iii) how well do the risk maps fit with what we know to be correctly based on the available evidence?. We found that temperature seasonality (Bio04), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer land cover and precipitation seasonality (Bio15), were the most important drivers of D. citri distribution. The results follow the known distribution records of the pest with potential expansion of habitat suitability in the future. Because many invasive species, including D. citri, can adapt to the changing climates, our findings can serve as a guide for surveillance, tracking and prevention of D. citri spread in Ghana.

A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios.

The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.

Economic Injury Levels and Economic Thresholds for Leucoptera coffeella as a Function of Insecticide Application Technology in Organic and Conventional Coffee (Coffea arabica), Farms.

Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae) is one of the main pests in coffee crops. The economic injury level (EIL) is the lowest density of the pest at which economic damages match the costs of control measures. The economic threshold (ET) is the density of the pest at which control measures must be taken so that this population does not reach the EIL. These are the main indices used for pest control decision-making. Control of L. coffeella is carried out by manual, tractor, airplane or drone applications. This work aimed to determine EILs and ETs for L. coffeella as a function of insecticide application technology in conventional and organic Coffea arabica crops. Data were collected over five years in commercial C. arabica crops on seven 100 ha central pivots. The cost of control in organic crops was 16.98% higher than conventional. The decreasing order of control cost was manual > drone > airplane > tractor application. Coffee plants were tolerant to low densities (up to 15% mined leaves) of the pest that caused losses of up to 6.56%. At high pest densities (54.20% mined leaves), losses were high (85.62%). In organic and conventional crops and with the use of different insecticide application technologies, EIL and ET were similar. The EIL and ET were 14% and 11% of mined leaves, respectively. Therefore, these indices can be incorporated in integrated pest management programs in C. arabica crops. The indices determined as a function of insecticide application technology in organic and conventional coffee are important as they serve producers with different technological levels. Additionally, EILs and ETs can contribute to more sustainable production, as control methods will only be employed when the pest density reaches these indices.

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae with and without Irrigation using CLIMEX Modeling.

The carambola fruit fly Bactrocera carambolae Drew and Hancock (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an invasive fruit fly reported in North Brazil that threatens Brazilian fruit culture. Assessing the potential risk of establishing this pest is necessary to reduce the threat of B. carambolae dispersion to other countries and Brazilian regions and to avoid damage to the fruit trade. In this study, the CLIMEX model was used to understand the response of B. carambolae to climate change and to determine its potential global distribution with and without irrigation practices. Based on ecophysiological parameters, the model simulates factors limiting species distribution concerning the climate. To assess the seasonal variation in the density of B. carambolae, monitoring data in Uiramutã municipality, Roraima, from 2013 to 2019 was used. According to the CLIMEX forecast, large parts of America, Africa, and Asia, mainly in areas closest to the equator, are highly suitable for the survival of B. carambolae. Brazil is a good part of its territory with high suitability for B. carambolae, especially the North, South, and Southeast regions and the entire coastal area. The periods of the highest climatic suitability in the five Brazilian regions were January-May and October-December. The potential distribution area expands under irrigation and is highly suitable for most areas without cold stress. The CLIMEX model for B. carambolae generated in the present study provides important information for the Brazilian eradication program and other surveillance activities established in pest-free areas.

Risk analysis for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae) and potential areas for its biological control with Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) in the Americas.

The Caribbean fruit fly Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a polyphagous pest causing economic losses in Central America, the Caribbean and South Florida. The parasitoid wasp Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is the main parasitoid of A. suspensa in biological control programs. In this study, by modeling with CLIMEX software, climatically suitable areas were projected according to historical climate data. Areas with overlapping optimal climatic suitability for the joint establishment of the pest and parasitoid were mapped, indicating large areas with host presence in North, Central, and South America, with cold stress being the main climatic factor limiting distribution for both species. Tropical regions have the most potential for invasion, with optimal suitability in many areas. Through the projected distributions, this study can target quarantine strategies in areas most susceptible to invasion and establishment of the pest in each country. In addition, classical biological control with the parasitoid in areas with climatic suitability is also recommended.

Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model.

Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040-2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.

Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis.

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.

Mapping Brazilian Expansion Risk Levels of Mango Weevil (Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius) Based on MaxEnt.

The mango weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae (Fabricius) (Curculionidae), pest present in Brazil and is restricted to some municipalities in the Rio de Janeiro State. This curculionid attacks the mango crop exclusively and puts mango production globally at risk, especially those destined for export. Using ecological modeling tools, this study is the first to map the potential risk of S. mangiferae in Brazil. We aimed to identify the potential distribution of this pest in Brazilian states, drawing up thematic maps of regions that present suitable and unsuitable climatic conditions for the establishment of the pest using the MaxEnt ecological niche model. The average annual temperature, the annual precipitation, the average daytime temperature range, and the annual temperature range were the variables that contributed most to the selected model. The MaxEnt model predicted highly suitable areas for S. mangiferae throughout the Brazilian coast, especially on the northeast coast. The region responsible for more than 50% of mango production in Brazil, the São Francisco Valley, was classified by the model with suitability for the pest; it can impacts exportations due to the imposition of phytosanitary barriers. This information can be used in strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of this pest in new areas and monitor programs in areas with recent occurrence. In addition, the model results can be used in future research plans on S. mangiferae in worldwide modeling studies and climate change scenarios.

Distribution of Dalbulus maidis (DeLong) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) and incidence of maize rayado fino virus and Candidatus Phytoplasma asteris in corn succession planting systems.

BACKGROUND: Corn is one of the main crops grown globally to produce food for human consumption and animal feed, including raw materials for bioenergy. Effective pest management is critical for the economic viability of corn production. The leafhopper Dalbulus maidis and the diseases transmitted by it have become relevant to corn production. Our study aimed to determine environmental parameters that affect D. maidis populations and the impacts of pathogen dispersion on corn productivity under different rotation systems and sowing seasons. RESULTS: The population density of leafhoppers found in the studied crops was low but capable of establishing the diseases and spreading them widely in the crops. The leafhopper's highest occurrence was in the corn vegetative development stage, and its population peaks were earlier in the corn off-season. The incidence of maize rayado fino virus and maize bushy stunt phytoplasma were higher in corn off-season than in the growing season. The incidence of diseases was higher in the final stages of the cultivation cycle. Yield losses were significantly higher for maize bushy stunt phytoplasma and not significant for maize rayado fino virus. CONCLUSION: Our study observed that corn's physiological stage was the main factor influencing D. maidis dynamics. The occurrence of D. maidis at low densities was sufficient to ensure the efficient transmission and dissemination of maize rayado fino virus and maize bushy stunt phytoplasma, which had a higher incidence in the reproductive stage and the corn sowed off-season. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Risk analysis of the spread of the quarantine pest mite Schizotetranychus hindustanicus in Brazil.

Schizotetranychus hindustanicus Hirst (Acari: Tetranychidae) known as the Hindustan citrus mite, is a quarantine pest present in Roraima, Brazil. In 1924 this pest was described in India. It was reported in 2002 in Venezuela and in Roraima in 2008. In 2010, the Hindustan citrus mite was reported in Colombia. It is possible that it will be introduced in other areas of Brazil, resulting in a threat to Brazilian citrus industry. Our objective was to determine the most suitable regions of Brazil for S. hindustanicus using a maximum entropy (Maxent) algorithm, based on native and invasive updated occurrence records from published research, field surveys and online databases. To avoid overfitting and improving transferability, we chose parameter settings of Maxent to construct and validate models by searching for the best combination of feature classes and regularization multipliers. The model obtained showed excellent performance according to all evaluation metrics used. A high potential for the establishment of S. hindustanicus was identified in large areas of Roraima, the extreme west of Amazonas, the entire north of the State of Pará, also in northeast, south, east, and north of the State of Amapá, and in a small portion northwest of the State of Maranhão (all states belonging to the northern region of Brazil). Our results provide information for policy making and quarantine measures, especially where S. hindustanicus is still absent in Brazil.

Predicting the potential global distribution of an invasive alien pest Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio) (Hemiptera: Triozidae).

The impact of invasive alien pests on agriculture, food security, and biodiversity conservation has been worsened by climate change caused by the rising earth's atmospheric greenhouse gases. The African citrus triozid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio; Hemiptera: Triozidae), is an invasive pest of all citrus species. It vectors the phloem-limited bacterium "Candidatus Liberibacter africanus", a causal agent of citrus greening disease or African Huanglongbing (HLB). Understanding the global distribution of T. erytreae is critical for surveillance, monitoring, and eradication programs. Therefore, we combined geospatial and physiological data of T. erytreae to predict its global distribution using the CLIMEX model. The model's prediction matches T. erytreae present-day distribution and shows that parts of the Mediterranean region have moderate (0 < EI < 30) to high (EI > 30) suitability for the pest. The model predicts habitat suitability in the major citrus-producing countries, such as Mexico, Brazil, China, India, and the USA. In the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 scenarios, the model predicts a reduction in habitat suitability from the current time to 2070. The findings show that global citrus production will continue to be threatened by T. erytreae. However, our study provides relevant information for biosecurity and risk assessment.

Potential Distribution of and Sensitivity Analysis for Urochloa panicoides Weed Using Modeling: An Implication of Invasion Risk Analysis for China and Europe.

Urochloapanicoides P. Beauv. is considered one of the most harmful weeds in the United States and Australia. It is invasive in Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil, but its occurrence is hardly reported in China and European countries. Species distribution models enable the measurement of the impact of climate change on plant growth, allowing for risk analysis, effective management, and invasion prevention. The objective of this study was to develop current and future climate models of suitable locations for U. panicoides and to determine the most influential climatic parameters. Occurrence data and biological information on U. panicoides were collected, and climatic parameters were used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) and to perform sensitivity analysis. The future projections for 2050, 2080, and 2100 were modeled under the A2 SRES scenario using the Global Climate Model, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS). The potential distribution of U. panicoides coincided with the data collected, and the reliability of the final model was demonstrated. The generated model identified regions where the occurrence was favorable, despite few records of the species. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters of the model were related to temperature, humidity, and cold stress. Future projections predict reductions in climate suitability for U. panicoides in Brazil, Australia, India, and Africa, and an increase in suitability in Mexico, the United States, European countries, and China. The rise in suitability of China and Europe is attributed to predicted climate change, including reduction in cold stress. From the results obtained, preventive management strategies can be formulated against the spread of U. panicoides, avoiding economic and biodiversity losses.

Climate-induced range shifts of invasive species (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama).

BACKGROUND: The Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) is a destructive, invasive species that poses a serious threat to the citrus industry wherever it occurs. The psyllid vectors the phloem-limited bacteria 'Candidatus Liberibacter americanus' and 'Ca. L. asiaticus', causal agents of the incurable citrus greening disease or huanglongbing (HLB). It is essential to understand which regions and areas are suitable for colonization by ACP to formulate appropriate policy and preventive measures. Considering its biology and ecology, we used a machine learning algorithm based on the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) principle, to predict the potential global distribution of ACP using bioclimatic variables and elevation. RESULTS: The model predictions are consistent with the known distribution of ACP and also highlight the potential occurrence outside its current ecological range, that is, primarily in Africa, Asia and the Americas. The most important abiotic variables driving the global distribution of ACP were annual mean temperature, seasonality of temperature and annual precipitation. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need for international collaboration in slowing the spread of invasive pests like D. citri. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Distribution and invasion risk assessments of Chrysodeixis includens (Walker, [1858]) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) using CLIMEX.

Chrysodeixis includens is a polyphagous pest restricted to the American continent. The occurrence of C. includens is allied, among other factors, by favorable conditions such as temperature, humidity, presence of hosts, and migratory behavior. In this work, we built spatiotemporal species distribution models at continental and global levels for the distribution of C. includens using CLIMEX to determine times and regions favorable for year-round survival and migration of this species and in case of invasion on other continents to apply timely and right phytosanitary measures. Our models estimated high climate suitability for C. includens in Central and large proportions of South America throughout the year. Moreover, there is suitability for C. includens growth in all months of the year in Central and northern part of South America. In the northern hemisphere, these conditions range from April to October, while in mid-southern parts of South America, favorable periods comprise October through June. The countries with the highest suitability for C. includens outside the American continent are located on the African and Asian continents. Our results show variable climate suitability for C. includens during the year that help to understand likely migration pattern in North America. This information would direct efforts for appropriate C. includens management during warm and moist periods of the year. Furthermore, our models notify the need for the development of strategies for the inspection and interception of C. includens especially in central Africa, India, South and Southeast Asia, and Northeast Australia.

Altitude conditions seem to determine the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil.

COVID-19 is spreading rapidly in Brazil, a country of continental dimensions, but the incidence of the disease is showing to be very heterogeneous, affecting cities and regions differently. Thus, there is a gap regarding what factors would contribute to accentuate the differences in the incidence of COVID-19 among Brazilian cities. This work aimed to evaluate the effect of altitude on the incidence of COVID-19 in Brazilian cities. We analyzed the relative incidence (RI), the relative death rate (RDR) of COVID-19, and air relative humidity (RH) in all 154 cities in Brazil with a population above 200 thousand inhabitants, located between 5 and 1135 m in altitude. Pearson's correlation analysis was performed to compare a relationship between altitude with RI and RDR, and between RH with RI and RDR. Altitudes were classified into three classes [low (altitude ≤ 97 m a. s. l), middle (97 < altitude ≤ 795 m a. s. l), high (795 < altitude ≤ 1135 m a. s. l)] for the RI, RDR, and RH variables. To compare the three classes of altitude, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey test were used to compare averages (p < 0.05). Our epidemiological analysis found that the RI, RDR, and RH were lower in cities located in high altitudes (795 < altitude ≤ 1135 m a. s. l) when compared to the middle (97 < altitude ≤ 795 m a. s. l) and low (altitude ≤ 97 m a. s. l) cities altitudes. Furthermore, our study shows that there is a negative correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 with altitude and a positive correlation with RH in the cities analyzed. Brazilian cities with high altitude and low RH have lower RI and RDR from COVID-19. Thus, high altitude cities may be favorable to shelter people at risk. This study may be useful for understanding the behavior of SARS-CoV2, and start point for future studies to establish causality of environmental conditions with SARS-CoV2 contributing to the implementation of measures to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19.

Climate-based seasonal dynamics of the invasive red palm mite Raoiella indica.

BACKGROUND: Raoiella indica Hirst (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) is the most critical coconut and banana pest recently introduced in Brazil. Once the mite pests are introduced, it is essential to understand their dynamics in important crops under open-field climatic conditions to implement strategies for their management and determine the periods when species populations may increase in the field. Modelling tools have been used to determine the potential distribution of species and implications for the management of invasive species. Thus, our aim in this study was to determine the seasonal variation in R. indica and the influence of the monthly climate using CLIMEX modelling. We adjusted the CLIMEX model for R. indica based on distribution data, additional biological characteristics, and fluctuations in the R. indica population in a commercial coconut plantation. RESULTS: The model for the current climate shows a good match between the ecoclimatic index and the global distribution of R. indica. The model results demonstrate that most states of Brazil and several regions worldwide include areas with highly suitable climatic conditions for R. indica. We observed variations in the density of R. indica in commercial coconut crops, with the highest incidence occurring during the first months of the year. CONCLUSION: Our results showed different alterations in seasonal suitability for R. indica that may provide information for the implementation of methods for time management, such as strategies for sampling and control during periods with a high degree of suitability for R. indica. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.

Detection of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides in native cashew species in Brazil.

The savanna cashew (Anacardium humile A. St. Hil.) nut is a native shrub species distributed in the savanna biome of Central Western Brazil. This species is similar to the cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) nut, and its edible pseudo-fruits have been used for various purposes. However, A. humile is at risk of extinction. One reason for this is the phytosanitary issues. Therefore, phytosanitary studies of the serious plant diseases caused by fungal pathogens are necessary. The aim of this study was to survey the savanna cashew nut (Anacardium humile) in Central Western Brazil from August 2013 to October 2014. Serious damage caused by anthracnose to the plant's leaves and fruits was consistently detected. The pathogen fungal species was Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. It was identified by morphological characteristics and molecular analyses. Additional experiments showed evidence that C. gloeosporioides can be transmitted by cashew seeds. We observed anthracnose symptoms on the surfaces of the floral peduncle, leaves, and peduncle of the A. humile cashew nuts. The genomic DNA sequences of the selected strains for molecular characterization have had 99% identity with the analogous sequences of C. gloeosporioides. Naturally occurring C. gloeosporioides infection of the leaves of A. humile was low (20.3%) compared with that of the nuts (79.7%). Our results can be used to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of C. gloeosporioides in new areas. They can also be helpful in monitoring programs in areas with a current occurrence of C. gloeosporioides. Finally, these results can be used in future research plans of C. gloeosporioides infection management.

Surrounding Vegetation, Climatic Elements, and Predators Affect the Spatial Dynamics of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) in Commercial Melon Fields.

Studying the spatial dynamics of pests allows the determination of abiotic and biotic factors affecting time and locations of pest attack to the crops. Such abiotic and biotic factors mainly include 1) climatic elements, 2) natural enemies, 3) phenological stage of plants, and 4) surrounding vegetation. Melon (Cucumis melo L. [Cucurbitales: Cucurbitaceae]) is among the most consumed fruit in the world, and the whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) is among the main pests of this crop. This work aimed to determine the effects of surrounding vegetation, natural enemies, climatic elements, and stages of plants on the spatial dynamics of B. tabaci in commercial melon fields. Adult whitefly densities were monitored on four melon fields in a tropical climate region. Sampling location in crops was georeferenced. Experimental data were submitted to geostatistical analysis. The highest densities of B. tabaci occurred during hot periods experiencing lower rainfall, and when the surrounding area presented crops hosting B. tabaci, especially other melon farms. The density ratio of the predators (i.e., spiders and Geocoris sp.) were dependent on pest density. The pattern of field colonization by B. tabaci varies according to its density. Therefore, the surrounding vegetation, air temperature, and predators influence the spatial distribution of B. tabaci in melon fields. These results provide important information to melon farmers, assisting them to improve the management of B. tabaci in the field.

Climate model for seasonal variation in Bemisia tabaci using CLIMEX in tomato crops.

The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is considered one of the most important pests for tomato Solanum lycopersicum. The population density of this pest varies throughout the year in response to seasonal variation. Studies of seasonality are important to understand the ecological dynamics and insect population in crops and help to identify which seasons have the best climatic conditions for the growth and development of this insect species. In this research, we used CLIMEX to estimate the seasonal abundance of a species in relation to climate over time and species geographical distribution. Therefore, this research is designed to infer the mechanisms affecting population processes, rather than simply provide an empirical description of field observations based on matching patterns of meteorological data. In this research, we identified monthly suitability for Bemisia tabaci, with the climate models, for 12 commercial tomato crop locations through CLIMEX (version 4.0). We observed that B. tabaci displays seasonality with increased abundance in tomato crops during March, April, May, June, October and November (first year) and during March, April, May, September and October (second year) in all monitored areas. During this period, our model demonstrated a strong agreement between B. tabaci density and CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw), which indicates significant reliability of our model results. Our results may be useful to design sampling and control strategies, in periods and locations when there is high suitability for B. tabaci.

Potential risk levels of invasive Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open-field Solanum lycopersicum (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change.

BACKGROUND: Neoleucinodes elegantalis is one of the major insect pests of Solanum lycopersicum. Currently, N. elegantalis is present only in America and the Caribbean, and is a threat in the world's largest S. lycopersicum-producing countries. In terms of potential impact on agriculture, the impact of climate change on insect invasions must be a concern. At present, no research exists regarding the effects of climatic change on the risk level of N. elegantalis. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for S. lycopersicum and N. elegantalis, utilizing CLIMEX to determine risk levels of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation in the present and under projected climate change, using the global climate model CSIRO-Mk3.0. RESULTS: Large areas are projected to be suitable for N. elegantalis and optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation at the present time. However, in the future these areas will become unsuitable for both species. Conversely, other regions in the future may become optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation, with a varying risk level for N. elegantalis. CONCLUSION: The risk level results presented here provide a useful tool to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.